Donald Trump

[turkeyfoot]

Here's an Interesting gem of historical political interest. http://www.weeklystandard.com/article/2001015/

• "Every Republican candidate who finished first and second in Iowa and New Hampshire has won the presidential nomination. Having done so, Trump is now in a class with Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney. John McCain was a partial exception in 2000, having basically skipped Iowa and then won in New Hampshire. And it doesn't matter where the first and second place finishes occurred. Reagan was second in Iowa in 1980, then won New Hampshire. Dole won Iowa in 1996 and settled for second to Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire. 

I think it has to do more with popular acceptance and wanting to get behind a winner. Less to do with understanding what the candidate is for or against.

Loved the pussy sound bite! That came from an audience member with a palpable sense of knocking someone down.

Sanders has a similar message connecting his audience to Wall Street and the rich being bad.

Theres very little connected to substantive issues. Its as if voters stepped off the bus with no prior knowledge of the hows and whys the current state of political affairs got them to this point.

Its not money, not issues that matters most but raw emotions.

[Selene]

South Carolina -

Trump - + 36.4%

No clue how to embed now....

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-republican-primary

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 hour ago, Selene said:

No clue how to embed now....

Adam,

I figured it out (see here) and fixed it in your post above.

Michael

[william.scherk]

2 hours ago, Selene said:

South Carolina -

Trump - + 36.4%

No clue how to embed now....

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-republican-primary

That is a good, robust and well-fed with data -- the interactive at PuffHo, although their aggregate includes some somewhat iffy internet-only polls, along with some from outfits that have overestimated Trump in both New Hampshire and in Iowa (notably Gravis).  I won't belabour the point, but if you go the PuffHo page, you can make Trump's numbers go up from the line above, or below -- it depends on the quality of the polls. And I guess it may depend on which way you want the wind to blow. 

The clearest NC GOP results from RCP are not especially encouraging -- at the moment -- for an early clean sweep by Trump. He is going to have to work it hard, which should be no problem for a man who loves his campaigning.  My gut tells me that if he can maintain 33% and above in every state until March 1st,, he is going to be golden. Should he fall short, well, we don't know what that might mean. I think we should be open to all possibilities -- a big thumping 36% in SC and Nevada, and a first-place but no majority-delegate-allocation should he remains around the 30% mark.

[william.scherk]

On 2/9/2016 at 4:57 AM, Marc said:

Pussy talk and how DT played that comment , cute - oh yeah . Presidential - no . 

Do I want my President standing up allowing another candidate to be called a pussy - no . Will it backfire [...?]

It's a borderline taunt. It means, in another connotation, lady bits. It is the equivalent of 'sucky baby' and the like ... IMO. Using it as currency in a campaign? I dunno, maybe the first forty times I will cheer. The forty-first ...

On 2/9/2016 at 11:52 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Katrina Pierson  says Trump is single-handedly restoring freedom of speech in America. And she was referencing the pussy comment.

She should know, the half-caste high yeller.

20 hours ago, Jules Troy said:

If DT becomes POTUS I can see a lot of problems on the world stage vanishing.  People don't mess with strong leaders.  They don't like getting their heads bashed in.

I would love to know which problem Trump could vanish. I mean, I like magic as much as the next skeptic ...  can you name one or two of the problems?  

I am thinking of one of the minor, nagging problems like Somalia, Sudan/South Sudan and Eritrea, and maybe for good measure, the shambles that was the Democratic Republic of Congo -- or even Nigeria.  These conflicts -- especially those on the Horn of Africa, are direct causes of African refugee flows.  A magic vanishing of those conflicts would free up resources to tackle the harder and larger problems. See, for example, this heart-breaking story in the British media.  Who knew? Who cares?

11 hours ago, turkeyfoot said:

Loved the pussy sound bite! That came from an audience member with a palpable sense of knocking someone down. [...] Theres very little connected to substantive issues. Its as if voters stepped off the bus with no prior knowledge of the hows and whys the current state of political affairs got them to this point.

Its not money, not issues that matters most but raw emotions.

Maybe so, but emotions imbue many political contests. Politics without emotion would be like a Funeral Arts convention, or a Sewer and Water Board of Supervisors meeting.

Here is Mr Trump with the 30-second solution for Kim Jong Un, Trump will get on the blower to China and say something like, "Hey, China. Time to take out the young Un, okay. Thanks, bye. Oh and fuck you for tariffs." As they say in the trade, bif bam boom.

 

[Jules Troy]

What I was referring to Bill is the problem of US citizens abroad being targeted for kidnapping or worse.  As well as yes the horrible foreign policy in the ME / Africa.

Im thinking that as far as ISIS is concerned he will do as he says.  Hit the supply and transport hard, kill the oil/take the oil and then hit the back door money supplies funding them.  If he hits the money supply then they won't be in a position to do anything...

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here is gay polemicist conservative, Milo Yiannopoulos, talking to a group at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

He was interrupted by Feminist and Black Lives Matter people.

The crowd--don't forget, these are college students--drowned them out with shouts of, "Trump! Trump! Trump!..."

 

You can read more about this at Breitbart: Fake Blood and War Chants: Milo Yiannopoulos Event at Rutgers Disrupted by Feminists, Black Lives Matter Activists.

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

Jeb failed as Jeb! He gave up and enlisted Mommy and his brother (who got us into the quicksand of Iraq). Spent $120 million.Weak-no chance!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

February 11, 2016

[Selene]

[william.scherk]

Who knew?  Someone else can explain this better than I.  I guess it is in the nature of a curiosity, since it is not really funny.

Here is a stumbled-upon quote of the great Reagan ...

 

[Roger Bissell]

3 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Who knew?  Someone else can explain this better than I.  I guess it is in the nature of a curiosity, since it is not really funny.

Here is a stumbled-upon quote of the great Reagan ...

 

I guess it's just me, but I thought that the Puppet Pundits video was kinda cute and kinda funny. Ronald Raven - har, har. Maybe you'd have thought it more amusing if the host had been a female puppet named Sheryl Crow? ;-)

Then there was the video about the old amnesty push by the puppet's original prototype. In most respects, I think it was a noble effort. But what's the deal about inviting aliens "into the sunshine"? Isn't that rather callous and thoughtless, considering that some of the immigrants were probably at risk for skin cancer due to increased exposure to the sun? Just sayin'...

REB

[Marc]

On February 9, 2016 at 2:52 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

 

Marc,

In compensation,  Katrina Pierson  says Trump is single-handedly restoring freedom of speech in America. And she was referencing the pussy comment.

 

Michael

I do like freedom of speech !!!!!!!!!

[Marc]

On February 10, 2016 at 9:54 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

What?

Nobody's celebrating that Trump won?

Dayaamm!

It's not a good day to be a crow.

Michael

Oh man , I have to apologize . Crazy few days for me but yes - massive win . I thought it would have been much much closer indeed .

He is in the game now , you gotta win a state , he did and my guy has not won anything yet except maybe some questions on top of other questions . 

SC will be really interesting , and I am excited !!!!

Like our resident expert on US politics stated over and over , this race is going to be about March and I really did expect Trump to not even win a state , lo and behold that means that I was VERY WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!

Still though , Rubio is our next President but a big shout out to the man who called this when most folks were not even thinking it was real ( like myself ) . MSK might be on to something ( along with some other folks here  ! )

Now , we go to SC where my boy in the race will surprise .

I will win south Ca Ro Li Na , I am a Ro bot , I am Mar co Ru bi o , I am your next Pres i dent 

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 hour ago, Marc said:

... lo and behold that means that I was VERY WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!

Marc,

Could you do me a favor?

Could you repeat that?

Michael

[Selene]

Cruz's South Carolina commercial - time for hardball...

 

 

 

 

[Selene]

SHUSH!  Don't tell anyone, The Donald is increasing his lead...

Quote

After winning New Hampshire’s presidential primaries by wide margins, New York real estate magnate Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders are soaring to new heights among their respective party’s voters, a new Morning Consult poll finds, signaling momentum as voters in new states prepare to weigh in.

Trump, who doubled his nearest rival in Tuesday’s vote, attracts 44 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the highest level of support he has achieved in a Morning Consult survey.

See full toplines here, and full crosstabs here.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses and finished third in New Hampshire, clocks in second with 17 percent of the vote, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, both at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush takes 8 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich wins 4 percent.

http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-national-polling/

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

The lefties at The Daily Beast cannot believe their eyes:

No Joke: Trump Can Win Plenty of Latinos

Talk about someone destroying their core story...

Oh, the article still holds onto some vestiges of their core story, but Trump is no longer the Satanic punch-line he used to be for Latinos over yonder. That core story is morphing fast.

Michael

[anthony]

Great, a hopeful sign for the future. There're going to be those who are declaring Hey hold on, I'm an individual before a Latino, I'm an American before a Latino, I'm a businessman, I'm a family man, I'm an independent voter... etc. - I decide, for me and mine. Pandering to "blocs" is a distasteful side to electioneering, and it looks like there could be a growing rebellion against those racial, sexist, ageist, religious presumptions and 'typing'. (But I didn't read the article, it links to a wiki piece).

[Selene]

The Daily BEAST article in Michael's post supra...http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html

Below is from a link in that article...

Quote

 

BREAKING POLL: Donald Trump Is winning Latino Republicans

Jim Hoft Jan 31st, 2016 7:36 pm 68 Comments

Si Se Puede!
In new poll on Latino voters finds Donald Trump has more support from Republican Latino voters than Cuban-Americans Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined.
 

Trump has support from 38 percent of Latino voters followed by Ted Cruz with 15 percent and Jeb Bush with 14 percent.
The New York Post reported:

Despite his controversial comments about Mexican immigrants, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is the favorite among Latino Republicans, according to new polling results revealed to The Post.

Thirty eight percent favor Trump, followed by Cuban American Ted Cruz (15 percent), Jeb Bush (14 percent) and Cuban American Marco Rubio (8 percent), according to the national poll conducted by the Beck Research for the American Federation for Children.

“If you’re trying to stop Trump – this poll should trouble you,” said pollster Deborah Beck.

 

[Selene]

"It’s a new mundo. And a complicated one at that."

Quote

Finally, if it’s true that Trump is inspiring voters who feel alienated and abandoned by the political process, then the fact that there might be Latinos who support Trump makes sense. America’s largest minority knows about alienation and abandonment. So they are no more immune than other voters to what South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley described as Trump’s “siren call.” What he’s saying and how he is saying it may be resonating with many Latino voters.

And the author also offers anecdotal items:

Quote

There is also anecdotal information, including conversations I’ve had in recent months with Latino friends who are leaning toward voting for Trump.

There are also the emails I receive from readers like Ernesto Villareal, a Texas Latino who referred to himself as an “Orgulloso Tejano Americano.” Villareal wrote the following: “I have voted Democratic all my life. However, it will be a cold day in hell if I will vote for Mrs. Clinton. I strongly believe that Mr. Trump is the one to turn this great country of ours in the right direction.”

Or the one I got recently from another reader named Chuck Castillo, who wrote this after I bashed Trump: “You never get it, do you? Trump, himself, is not the issue. Do you really believe that Trump hates Latinos? What you should be paying attention to is that so many Americans agree with what he said. That so many Americans agree with what Trump says is indicative that immigrants have lost in the court of public opinion and that’s where they had to win.”

The author, grudgingly, admits that The Donald has strong support in the Latino community:

Quote

02.12.16 12:01 AM ET

No Joke: Trump Can Win Plenty of Latinos

A new poll of Latino GOPers puts Trump ahead. Way ahead. And yes, there’s an explanation, in the fault lines within the Latino community.

Latinos for Trump? Oh yeah, that’s a thing.

Keep in mind three points. First, you have to understand that we’re talking here primarily about Latino Republicans, many of whom might live in red states such as Arizona or Texas. Those Latinos who are Democrats (as about 80 percent of them are, according to surveys) are busy dividing up their support between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with most of it going to Clinton.

Also, when you look at the slate of Republicans running for president—which recently got shorter with the departures of several candidates after Iowa and New Hampshire—you have to consider what is behind Door No. 2. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush can be expected to do well with Latinos. Ted Cruz might even do better than expected with those voters. Beyond that, it’s slim pickings, and so Trump might not look so bad.

Finally, if it’s true that Trump is inspiring voters who feel alienated and abandoned by the political process, then the fact that there might be Latinos who support Trump makes sense. America’s largest minority knows about alienation and abandonment. So they are no more immune than other voters to what South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley described as Trump’s “siren call.” What he’s saying and how he is saying it may be resonating with many Latino voters.

A new poll confirms it. In the national survey, which was conducted by Beck Research on behalf of the American Federation for Children, 38 percent of Latinos favor Trump. Ted Cruz got 15 percent. Jeb Bush pulled in 14 percent. And Marco Rubio, the guy who’s supposed to be the one who could unite the party and win? Just 8 percent.

There is also anecdotal information, including conversations I’ve had in recent months with Latino friends who are leaning toward voting for Trump.

There are also the emails I receive from readers like Ernesto Villareal, a Texas Latino who referred to himself as an “Orgulloso Tejano Americano.” Villareal wrote the following: “I have voted Democratic all my life. However, it will be a cold day in hell if I will vote for Mrs. Clinton. I strongly believe that Mr. Trump is the one to turn this great country of ours in the right direction.”

Or the one I got recently from another reader named Chuck Castillo, who wrote this after I bashed Trump: “You never get it, do you? Trump, himself, is not the issue. Do you really believe that Trump hates Latinos? What you should be paying attention to is that so many Americans agree with what he said. That so many Americans agree with what Trump says is indicative that immigrants have lost in the court of public opinion and that’s where they had to win.”

And what exactly has Trump said about immigrants and Mexican immigrants in particular? It wasn’t good.

The meme that Trump is anti-immigrant or anti-Mexican got its start right out of the gate on June 16, 2015, when the real estate mogul announced his bid for the Republican presidential nomination. He was trying to make the point that the United States was being taken advantage of by other countries. He went about it in entirely the wrong way.

“When do we beat Mexico at the border?” Trump asked. “They’re laughing at us, at our stupidity. And now they are beating us economically. They are not our friend, believe me. But they’re killing us economically. The U.S. has become a dumping ground for everybody else’s problems…When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

Trump later doubled down on those comments by promising to build a wall along the nearly 2,000-mile border between the United States and Mexico, and send our neighbor the bill. He implied that he would do this by taxing Mexican imports. He also talked about creating a “deportation force” to forcibly remove every last one of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States back to their home countries.

To be fair, Trump has also—to the chagrin of nativists in the GOP—said that, in the case of Mexico, he would put “a door” in that giant border where immigrants could re-enter legally. But that point was obscured because liberals didn’t want to give Trump credit for complexity, and conservatives preferred to think of him as more solidly in line with their desire to give the undocumented immigrants a one-way ticket out of the country with no return.

That’s how the narrative of “Trump the Anti-Mexican Nativist” was born. Before long, other Hispanics—Cuban-Americans, Dominican-Americans, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Salvadorans, etc.—began to weigh in, and most took the side of the Mexicans. In an occurrence that almost never happens, the Latino community closed ranks in opposition to Trump.

In August 2015, Gallup released a survey that found only 14 percent of Latinos had a positive view of Trump while 65 percent had a negative view.

But lately, something has changed. In politics, as in life, time heals wounds. And while Latinos haven’t forgotten what Trump said about Mexican immigrants being criminals and rapists, and how he wants to deport 11 million people, they have begun to put such comments in the context of a candidate who, it often seems, has offended just about everyone in this country.

And interestingly enough, with most Puerto Ricans and Dominican-Americans solidly in the Democratic camp, and Cuban-Americans splitting their allegiance between Rubio and Cruz, it is in the Mexican-American community in the Southwest where you are most likely to find Latinos lining up with Trump.

They’re in red states like Texas and Arizona, and the battleground state of Colorado. There’s a lot they like about Trump, including his independence, plainspokenness, success in business, and disdain for political correctness. They see him as strong and resolute, and not having to cater to moneyed interests since he is self-funding his campaign. And either they don’t buy the idea that he is anti-Mexican, or they don’t care.

Let’s not forget that the relationship between U.S.-born Latinos and Latino immigrants, and even between foreign-born Latinos who have been naturalized and Latino immigrants, is complicated to say the least. There is an ambivalence there.

As a Mexican-American, I can tell you that many Mexican-Americans think that Mexican immigrants who come to the United States illegally are taking advantage—of a porous border, of the social-services safety net, of loopholes in immigration law, and of an insatiable appetite among U.S. employers for cheap and dependable labor. And they’re not wrong about that.

That’s a problem. Trump isn’t the solution. But there are some Latinos who give him credit for even starting the conversation.

So, as the voting moves to the Southwest, don’t be surprised to hear more about a new meme: “Latinos for Trump.” And guess what? Given Trump’s genius for marketing, you can be bet that there will be a version in Spanish.

Very interesting - wonder about Latinos in South Carolina?

A...

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here is something really, really interesting.

There are people on this panel who have said Trump was an idiot, buffoon, and God knows what else. Some even came out in support of the Iran deal when Obama went after it. Yet here they are mouthing Trump's own words about the Iran deal. It's almost verbatim.

From a persuasion standpoint, I am fascinated by this. I don't think these people realize they are channelling Trump. They think they are merely agreeing with him on one point.

(btw - Don't pay attention to the guy who said the Iran deal was great. That was a little too staged to be credible. He's the foil to provoke conflict and make the show interesting, but I started laughing at the end. He was backing off. I can almost hear him thinking, a guy's gotta eat, but I still have reputation I better keep an eye on. If I dive too deep into this crap, I ain't coming back out.  )

 

Michael

[william.scherk]

On 1/12/2016 at 6:19 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

 

On 1/11/2016 at 2:40 PM, william.scherk said:

Yeah, it's a foursome made in Heaven -- Objectivist Living, the Nation of Islam, Infowars, and Trump.

William,

Why don't we shave a couple off and look for commonalities for things that matter to an election? Trump is running so cut him off the list and OL is relatively small. Besides, there is no political unanimity of spirit on OL.

That leaves Alex Jones and Louis Farrakhan. What could those two possibly have in common?

Mr Farrakhan is visiting Iran: In Tehran, Farrakhan hails ‘wonderful revolution,’ slams American ‘tyranny’

Visiting Iran for celebrations marking the 37th anniversary of the rise to power of the ayatollahs, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan has hailed the “wonderful revolution” and said Iran was emerging from sanctions “stronger” and “more influential.” 

He also took the opportunity to criticize the United States, saying African-Americans have lived under “tyranny” from the days of slavery until the present time. 

Farrakhan was due to take part in a public rally in Tehran on Thursday, along with Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)–Qods Force chief Major General Qassem Soleimani, and other leaders. Beforehand, he spoke to Iranian reporters after meeting with Ali Akbar Velayati, foreign affairs advisor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

[...]

Thursday’s street rallies featured the unveiling of an Iranian-made drone, the Shahed [Eyewitness] 129, and a float reenacting the detention at gunpoint last month of 10 U.S. Navy sailors in the Persian Gulf. 

Since the Jan. 12-13 incident the IRGC and state media have repeatedly released video clips and images with the stated intention of humiliating the U.S., and Khamenei awarded medals to the IRGC Navy personnel involved.

[Marc]

On February 12, 2016 at 9:31 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Marc,

Could you do me a favor?

Could you repeat that?

Michael

I was very wrong about NH , but very correct about Rubio winning Potus  

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

What a debate!

It was more like a fistfight.

As usual, Trump is killing it on the Drudge and Time online polls about who won the debate. So far, he's leading by over 40% on Drudge and over 60% on Time. He's even leading on TheBlaze poll right now by 10%, but later that will be reversed when Beck's Cruzbots show up and mass vote.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

One of the funniest parts of the debate to me was how Trump pulled the covers off of fake cordiality.

The game is supposed to go like this. You are very polite to an adversary to his face, but you sponsor others to covertly to say nasty things about him and carry out every dirty trick they can get away with. Thus you keep the deniability going.

Trump just comes right out to a person's face and says what he thinks. And if the guy responds harshly, Trump gets worse. And he'll take it to the gutter if need be. His comment about Jeb Bush saying he would take his pants off and moon everyone was a classic. That shut Bush down.  

(btw - Bush did say something like that to the Boston Globe after New Hampshire, see here.)

Trump really got under Ted Cruz's skin. I saw Cruz talk about how he likes Ben Carson and practically swear on a stack of Bibles they are brothers in spirit, but I also saw him play a really dirty trick on Ben during the voting in New Hampshire. And I keep seeing Cruz misrepresent what people say in a manner similar to the mainstream press. He says the wrong meaning on quoting someone, knows he's saying the wrong meaning, knows it's a lie, and he still does it. I've seen that behavior a lot recently.

Then Cruz sidled up to Trump during this debate, grinned and said he liked Donald, he really did. But Trump wasn't buying the phony slickness. He called Cruz "the biggest liar" to his face and said Cruz was a "nasty guy." Suddenly you could see the mask drop from Cruz's face. It was only for a second, but it was the face of a pissed predator.

Cruz may be a staunch conservative, but I keep seeing character issues attached to his actions. I'm beginning to believe he might actually be a treacherous person underneath--one who will say something smooth to your face, then stab you in the back.

Michael