Donald Trump

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Peter,

Zero to hero?

Hell, Katie Couric is an expert at going from hero to zero. Just look at her career.

Let's simplify by using old fashioned marketing. Back to basics. People only buy from you (on a regular basis) if they:

1. Know you

2. Like you

3. Trust you

Look at how Trump fares:

1. Everybody knows him.

2. When he bashes the political elite as morons who do nothing, and cuts through their word tricks by saying what "people are yelling at their TV's every night" (to paraphrase one Steve Schmidt), they like him.

3. When he points to the things he has done and built, the jobs he has created and so on, they trust him to get that part right and get common sense things done.

Trump scores high in all three for average disillusioned citizens. I don't think it will matter what he says in any debate. (Regardless, I think he's going to kill it.) People buy what he is selling.

Now look at how someone like Jeb Bush fares:

1. Not everyone knows him yet, but they sure know his brother and father.

2. Lots of people like him enough, but I keep hearing the word "bland" applied to him. And when I hear him speak, I get that impression, too.

3. He clearly and openly represents what most non-engaged voters distrust--the professional political elite. Also, he stumbles when asked about certain questions (like the Iraq war, etc.). He shows the insecurity of not knowing what to say and trying to find it. He does this often and people just don't trust someone who does that. Especially if that person comes from the professional political elite.

So Bush's likeability, although bland, is far higher than his trust factor. And his name recognition is tarnished (or, for supporters, enhanced) by the presidential policies of his family. He needs to work on these areas--a lot--to keep people buying what his elite machine has been selling. And it looks like average people are migrating away.

I could go on like that and make a similar analysis of each of the candidates and do a far better job than Katie Couric.

The debate will be important, but I think the candidates who will fare better will be the ones who try to enhance their overall "know-like-trust" status than those who look for a magic bullet zinger to make a meme out of. Many disillusioned people are sick of media manipulation right now and, like pissed off people at a magic show, just looking for the phony stuff so they can bash it.

They are starved for someone they can know, like and trust. That, by the way, is Trump's secret. He knows this and works it.

Michael

[Selene]

You are a very smart man Michael.

[Selene]

Adam, I think attack ads can doom just about any candidate.

 

Think this one would work against Evita?

 

I do.

 

[Peter]

Michael wrote: The debate will be important, but I think the candidates who will fare better will be the ones who try to enhance their overall "know-like-trust" status than those who look for a magic bullet zinger to make a meme out of. Many disillusioned people are sick of media manipulation right now and, like pissed off people at a magic show, just looking for the phony stuff so they can bash it. end quote

And Adam responded: You are a very smart man Michael. end quote

AH! Thats sweet. But yeah, I second that evaluation. Well said Adam. So what about Andrew Romanos 5 points to ponder?

Will debate mistakes or flubs, or will another candidate be the giant killer? Remember Michelle Bachman saying about Herman Canes 999 plan, turn it upside down and you see the devil is in the details. That has got to be one of my all time favorite zingers. Granted, Donald is huge and Herman was struggling, so I will concede that no one liner will topple Trump. But if he appears out of his depth. . .

The meme: what will be played over and over again by the media?

What will be The Big Issue: Immigration? Maybe but I dont think so. The Iran treaty/agreement demonstrating Americas decline?

The backlash? Will the other candidates pick on Trump? Will Trump get red in the face and attack back?

The Cinderella story (or the comeback kid) will be . . . . Now I would like to see Cruz, Rand Paul, and Rubio do good in the big debate, and in the first debate Carly, but you dont bet on what you hope will happen.

Does anyone think they can guess who Trumps running mate could be? Who would have the most currency, collateral, and experience (or lack of experience, i.e., a DC outsider)to help Donald Trump get those last needed electoral votes? Who could step in as POTUS if the President is incapacitated?

[Selene]

It is not a debate.

 

Trump is a salesman...

 

 

 

All he has to do is wait for one of these more desperate pitchers to grove one...Think that will work Peter?A...

[Peter]

I watched some of the first debate at 5pm while reading a book so dont ask me any details. I thought they all did OK. Perry seemed a bit too chipper, and Santorum a bit too earnest. My wife thought Carly was the best one on stage. I cant think of his name but the former Virginia governor was pretty good too.

[Selene]

Gilmore - Reagan guy ex gpvermpr pf Virginia.

I heard some the minor league Trump Show clips of Carly and she is a favorite of mine,

Clips were excellent.

[Marc]

Great debate !!!!!!! I did not even see Trump ????? Just some kid called Trudeau

• 

  The Canadian Press - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair listen as Conservative Leader Stephen Harper take part in the first leaders …more

[Selene]

Great debate !!!!!!! I did not even see Trump ????? Just some kid called Trudeau

• 

  The Canadian Press - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair listen as Conservative Leader Stephen Harper take part in the first leaders …more

Good one marc, Trump was in drag and second from the left...

[Peter]

You betcha. The Canadians sure know how to yap. I am glad you are our neighbors.

I watched the 9pm Republican debate from Cleveland on Fox and it was pretty damn good. It started out as if it were headed for a brawl but that did not happen. Great drama. Great questions. Great answers. I did not see many lapses and nothing that would disqualify anyone. Hucklebee was good as was Carson.

The one thing that I did not like was Trump’s refusal to support a Republican candidate if it is not him. He would rather see Hillary elected if THE VOTERS do not nominate him. Someone who does that lacks discretion. They lack honor. They lack a love for their country. Trump’s support will flag because he will not support the flag which requires that you support the winning nominee. He is not reasonable. Of course if Trump gets the nomination then the worry is moot.

My wife said Trump sure isn’t a John Kennedy. So, we had a brief discussion about how Kennedy was actually a lot like Trump, which is MY opinion. The Kennedy’s were Irish immigrants. And not of the higher classes. Joe Kennedy made the family money illegally by selling booze and being an upscale mobster. JFK was immoral in his personal relationships. But what Kennedy did have was that he was a person who could inspire like few other Americans. Though there have been a few politically inspirational people lately including FDR, Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan. So if we again examine Trump in the light of Kennedy, does Trump inspire? He does. Trump may have faded a bit at the end of the debate but with ten people wanting to speak it isn’t wise to try to be the attention getting cut-up. It’s 11:35 so I will stop and evaluate my revised opinion after sleeping on it.

[Peter]

Ah, shoot. I have miles to go before I sleep. I also want to mention the animosity between Rand Paul and Trump, that could have lead to punches, and that I think Ted Cruz was great.

[Selene]

Ah, shoot. I have miles to go before I sleep. I also want to mention the animosity between Rand Paul and Trump, that could have lead to punches, and that I think Ted Cruz was great.

More so than my Italian Governor...I don't think so Maryland...I have seen your metro sexual ex-governor O'Nancy and hmm isn't he running against Evita?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I don't want to post the same thing on two different threads, so let me just say that it is a couple of hours after the debate and Trump is killing it on a Drudge poll. You can see a screenshot on another OL thread here.

Trump had a couple of very awkward moments (and some great moments), but the majority of people--by far--are voting that he won the debate. Ted Cruz is coming in second.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Great debate !!!!!!! I did not even see Trump ????? Just some kid called Trudeau

Marc,

LOL...

I saw this guy flying around over the heads of the debaters.

I wonder what he was doing there?...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I got the following screenshot on a Facebook feed and, although it is not entirely accurate (not quite 50%, more closer to 40), it does accurately sum up the feelings of a lot of what I see.

btw - I don't know this person. Someone I know liked the post, so it appeared in my feed.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Tweet time:

 

.@realDonaldTrump won tonight's #GOBDebate by a landslide! I couldn't be more proud of him! Not easy!! http://t.co/OSLPZ48ymZ

— Ivanka Trump (@IvankaTrump)

August 7, 2015

 

 

Michael

[Marc]

Great debate !!!!!!! I did not even see Trump ????? Just some kid called Trudeau

• 

  The Canadian Press - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair listen as Conservative Leader Stephen Harper take part in the first leaders …more

Good one marc, Trump was in drag and second from the left...

lololol

[Marc]

Great debate !!!!!!! I did not even see Trump ????? Just some kid called Trudeau

Marc,

LOL...

I saw this guy flying around over the heads of the debaters.

I wonder what he was doing there?...

Michael

I think he was flying around cause debates 15 months before elections for the convention are usually for the birds !!!!

Wondering how President Clinton did in those early debates ( if there were any ??? ) with the other dem candidates ? I seem to recall he was pretty low in the polls and nobody outside of Arkansas really even knew who he was .

Was Hart not the crowned Prince back then ???

just saying .....

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Marc,

I will grant you that early results are not final results, and early front-runners in American politics have tended to decay over time, but Trump has broken every rule in the book so far.

A little crowie cawed in my ear that it is a mistake to use traditional political wisdom in this case.

Also, for your enjoyment, here is a screenshot of the Drudge poll this morning. Last night Trump was leading by about 39%.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here's Trump's answer to Megyn Kelly's gotcha question at the beginning of the debate.

 

She tried to shame him by citing where he had referred to different women in disparaging terms. He neutralized her with a quip about Rosie O'Donnell, then said neither he nor the country has time for political correctness.

 

Now for the icing:

 

"@timjcam: @megynkelly @FrankLuntz @realDonaldTrump Fox viewers give low marks to bimbo @MegynKelly will consider other programs!"

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

August 7, 2015

 

 

Michael

[Selene]

I HAD a relatively high opinion of Megan Kelly and that is now a completely low opinion of her.

It is not a position that she can come back from in my mind.

If she apologized and stated that this should not have been the first question of the 32....

Mid-way, it could have been in the flow....

As the first question, it established her as a petty person which I did not expect.

A...

[Peter]

Adam wrote: As the first question, it established her as a petty person which I did not expect. end quote

It was incredibly tough, and it set the tone. It was kind of petty but it meant no viewer was changing the channel. I immediately thought this is not going to be like any other debate I have ever seen. The electrical difference between the earlier debate and the 9pm debate was enormous.

In an interview today with Steppininitopolus, Trump was sounding a bit less belligerent about kicking the country in the butt and running as an independent IF THE VOTERS DO NOT VOTE for him in the primaries. He also said his decision to run as a third party was *dependent on him getting respect* from the other candidates and the Republican Party and if he *likes and respects the Republican nominee* if it is not him.

Today, the only real new poll I could find from The Florida Times – Union had this polling data: Trump at 27, Bush at 26, Rubio at 7, Cruz at 8, Carson at 8, Walker at 6, Kasiach at 3, etc. That is significant if Trump is beating Bush and Rubio in Florida, and if Bush is significantly beating Rubio and Cruz in a state with a large, voting Hispanic population.

A Yahoo headline says, “Donald Trump dominates debate as GOP bully.” I did not see that. I did see the other candidates not constantly lashing out at him. Fox did him well. He needed that test of fire. What bothers me is Trump’s late night tweets though I guess it is not worse than anyone else publicly posting late night messages (as did I). But Trump is going to need some restraint or he will get a lot of appalled moments from various voting groups like women, (and with women we have 50 percent of the vote who MAY BE viewing him negatively which translates into I would never vote for that sexist pig.) I would be interested in the demographics of that nearly instantaneous Drudge poll. It may be time for a Trump for Prez site and commercials. I am not calling for restraint on Trump’s part but he needs to integrate his political philosophy and opinions. He may need advisors like OL’s Adam, Karl, Rasmussen, etc. so that he is not constantly walking back unwise statements.

I don’t remember the Crow bit on this thread. If Trump wins the naysayers are supposed to eat crow? I still do not think that is going to happen. Yet. When is the Iowa straw poll? The August before the election year or this month, August, 2015 I think. Then we have the Iowa Caucus and then the New Hampshire primary. So far no one has voted for nuttin except in unofficial online or telephone polls.

We who want to change (the way that Government is run) hope to see a true reformer in DC but that could be Trump, Walker, Rand Paul, Rubio, or Cruz and perhaps someone else. Though Trump, Rand, and Cruz are the most likely to be true reformers. Trump’s pledge to win the Hispanic vote could influence his choice of VP.

[Selene]

Rand Paul should suspend his campaign for two (2) weeks and have a heart to heart talk with himself and his family as to whether he is ready for this because he just looked like an immature young man, angry [in a childish way] and, frankly, like he was having a panic attack.

Visually, he was extremely disconcerting and appeared to be having impulse problems.

And I like Rand Paul so his performance was painfully inadequate for that stage.

For God's sake no one even heard him explain that he is an eye surgeon.

A...

[Peter]

Adam wrote about Rand Paul: Visually, he was extremely disconcerting and appeared to be having impulse problems. end quote

That is insightful. I was rooting for Rand but when I think back to what I saw without my bias you are correct.

Karl Rove just sent to my email: Fellow Conservative - You're eligible to win a trip to the presidential debate in Denver. You'll win airfare, accommodations and tickets for you and a guest. This offer expires soon. Enter the contest automatically by donating $3 now. end quote

What the heck. 3 bucks? I wonder if Karl would want to join the Trump campaign? How is a campaign run in the digital age? I am sure you could do a lot online. I think, even the impulsive Trump would do back ground checks before he put someone on the payroll.

Imagine Trump musing, Rove: won a few, lost a few. Denies it on air when his candidate is losing. Maybe. Peter: Inexperienced but will work for a competitive wage. Great insights. Veteran, served overseas during time of war with a good conduct medal. Wow. A good conduct medal? How extraordinary. I would never win a good conduct medal. Objectivist. Yeah. I will have Peter work from his computer at home. Win this election for me! Let’s make America great again, Pete.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I posted my first favorite quote about the debate on the other thread (see here).

It wasn't about Trump so I didn't put it here. (And yes, you have to go there to see what I said. )

However, my second favorite quote about the debate is about Trump, so I'm posting it here. It comes from one sorry-ass Charles Krauthammer, who is otherwise intelligent, especially intelligent enough to know better (see here for the video).

The real story is the collapse of Trump in this debate.

Before this debate, Trump said several times that Krauthammer was overrated.

Come on, Charlie-baby.

There's no need to prove it.

Michael