US 2024 Election

[Guyau]

 

As between the likely Republican primary candidates for the Presidential nomination so far—Trump, Pence, the Florida guy, and Haley—which one do you folks think would have the best chance of winning the general election? 

[Guyau]

"They said I couldn’t win when I ran up against a thirty-year incumbent [for the state legislature]. . . . When I ran for governor, what I didn’t tell you was I ran against a lieutenant governor, a congressman, an attorney general, and a state senator—and I was Nikki who? Nobody had heard of me.”

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Stephen,

Thanks for opening this thread.

You already know my answer.

Trump.

Michael

[Peter]

If Trump did not run, for whatever reason, DeSantos would be my choice in a primary . . . or if I find out something bad about him . . . I don't have anyone else in mind. But the former female, UN ambassador would be OK. NIkki seems like a good choice for VP too.   

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here is why it is really too early to make any predictions (other than the obvious) about the Republican primaries.

The people who run who are not Trump will get their campaign money from the war machine and people like the following.

That kind of stance is not well received by Republican voters. It's only well received among RINOs.

Also, Paul Ryan is on the board at Fox News, which is why Fox does not cover Trump events anymore. However, over time, this will become a hard position to maintain for Fox. Also, I doubt, in today's context, that Americans will be enthusiastic about any Republican candidates who gain advantage through mainstream news and social media censoring Trump. That looks like an advantage and I can see the temptation for an underdog candidate, but in my read of people who support Trump and even independents, censorship is a serious problem for the acceptance of whoever goes along with it.

 

Also, events greatly influence people, including naysayers. Mike Cernovich is squarely anti-Trump. But here is what he tweeted after Trump's visit to the Ohio train disaster.

Lots of things are going to occur between now and then.

For predicting election outcomes this early, I am reminded of the horse might sing story. I found a Sufi Mullah Nasruddin version by Idries Shah here.

Quote

In Persia many centuries ago, the Sufi mullah or holy man Nasruddin was arrested after preaching in the great square in front of the Shah's palace. The local clerics had objected to Mullah Nasruddin's unorthodox teachings, and had demanded his arrest and execution as a heretic. Dragged by palace guards to the Shah's throne room, he was sentenced immediately to death.

As he was being taken away, however, Nasruddin cried out to the Shah: "O great Shah, if you spare me, I promise that within a year I will teach your favourite horse to sing!"

The Shah knew that Sufis often told the most outrageous fables, which sounded blasphemous to many Muslims but which were nevertheless intended as lessons to those who would learn. Thus he had been tempted to be merciful, anyway, despite the demands of his own religious advisors. Now, admiring the audacity of the old man, and being a gambler at heart, he accepted his proposal.

The next morning, Nasruddin was in the royal stable, singing hymns to the Shah's horse, a magnificent white stallion. The animal, however, was more interested in his oats and hay, and ignored him. The grooms and stablehands all shook their heads and laughed at him. "You old fool", said one. "What have you accomplished by promising to teach the Shah's horse to sing? You are bound to fail, and when you do, the Shah will not only have you killed - you'll be tortured as well, for mocking him!"

Nasruddin turned to the groom and replied: "On the contrary, I have indeed accomplished much. Remember, I have been granted another year of life, which is precious in itself. Furthermore, in that time, many things can happen. I might escape. Or I might die anyway. Or the Shah might die, and his successor will likely release all prisoners to celebrate his accession to the throne".

"Or...". Suddenly, Nasruddin smiled. "Or, perhaps, the horse will learn to sing".

In other words, we just have to wait and see what happens.

 

Michael

[Peter]

6 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

In other words, we just have to wait and see what happens.

I agree. Yet, in the meantime, I do like to donate money to the right candidates. But I can't see donating to more than two candidates as rational. I am not seeking favors so my motivation will be to see them win, and for some others to become potential VP candidates as I have mentioned. Traditionally Presidential candidates don't select their Veep on strict ideological / political lines, but on their value to get him elected. So, a woman, a Hispanic, a person of color, or a person from a state with a lot of electoral college votes make some strategic sense as long as their political views mostly jibe with President Trumps views . . .  which in turn jibe with the more laissez-faire, conservative, freedom loving majority of republican or independent voters.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

At this stage of the game, I mostly agree with Lara Logan, although I add that she has a hell of a lot more sources and insider information than I do.

 

Wait...

An image keeps coming to mind...

What is it?...

It's becoming clearer now...

Oh yeah...

Why is that, I wonder?

 

Michael

[Marc]

On 2/26/2023 at 12:36 AM, Peter said:

I agree. Yet, in the meantime, I do like to donate money to the right candidates. But I can't see donating to more than two candidates as rational. I am not seeking favors so my motivation will be to see them win, and for some others to become potential VP candidates as I have mentioned. Traditionally Presidential candidates don't select their Veep on strict ideological / political lines, but on their value to get him elected. So, a woman, a Hispanic, a person of color, or a person from a state with a lot of electoral college votes make some strategic sense as long as their political views mostly jibe with President Trumps views . . .  which in turn jibe with the more laissez-faire, conservative, freedom loving majority of republican or independent voters.

Donate it all to President Trump please.

 

[Peter]

9 hours ago, Marc said:

Donate it all to President Trump please.

POLITICS News Thursday, March 2nd 2023

. . . . DeSantis moves toward GOP presidential bid on his own terms. DeSantis is perhaps the most potent threat to Trump’s effort to win the GOP nomination for the third time . . . . For now, DeSantis is perhaps the most potent threat to Trump’s effort to win the GOP nomination for the third time. The Club for Growth will host DeSantis among a half-dozen presidential prospects at a closed-door retreat in Florida next weekend with top donors. Trump is not invited.

Meanwhile, DeSantis has quietly begun to expand his political coalition on his terms just as he releases a book, “The Courage to be Free,” which comes out Tuesday. He spent the weekend huddled behind closed doors at a south Florida luxury hotel for a “Freedom Blueprint” retreat with more than 100 donors, elected officials and conservative influencers. The attendees included former Trump chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Texas-based donor Roy Bailey, a former member of Trump’s national finance committee.

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee were also in attendance, along with Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Texas Rep. Chip Roy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie . . . .

[Marc]

On 3/2/2023 at 2:30 AM, Peter said:

POLITICS News Thursday, March 2nd 2023

. . . . DeSantis moves toward GOP presidential bid on his own terms. DeSantis is perhaps the most potent threat to Trump’s effort to win the GOP nomination for the third time . . . . For now, DeSantis is perhaps the most potent threat to Trump’s effort to win the GOP nomination for the third time. The Club for Growth will host DeSantis among a half-dozen presidential prospects at a closed-door retreat in Florida next weekend with top donors. Trump is not invited.

Meanwhile, DeSantis has quietly begun to expand his political coalition on his terms just as he releases a book, “The Courage to be Free,” which comes out Tuesday. He spent the weekend huddled behind closed doors at a south Florida luxury hotel for a “Freedom Blueprint” retreat with more than 100 donors, elected officials and conservative influencers. The attendees included former Trump chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Texas-based donor Roy Bailey, a former member of Trump’s national finance committee.

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee were also in attendance, along with Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Texas Rep. Chip Roy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie . . . .

Let me ask you a question Peter.

When was the last time that an incumbant President got challenged and lost the chance to win a second term?

Now let me ask you another question.

When was the last time that an incumbant President won the first term, then won the second term by the most votes ever for a sitting President, then lost the chance to win that said third term? 

RD knows that he will not be the President in 2024 and if he challanges Trump for the nomination then bless his soul and his reasons but he knows something that you refuse to admit- he will not be the nominee in 2024.

[Guyau]

 

Poll Finds Trump Beating Biden but DeSantis, Haley Losing

As I understand it, this poll does not consider Electoral College outcome, only popular vote.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 hour ago, Guyau said:

As I understand it, this poll does not consider Electoral College outcome, only popular vote.

Stephen,

It also considers about a thousand people being polled from Boston.

This is a "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder" poll.

 

Michael

[Peter]

3 hours ago, Marc said:

When was the last time that an incumbant President got challenged and lost the chance to win a second term?

Good thinking Marc. I tapped on that keyboard thingy and found the answer and  . . some of . . . the other Q’s and A’s others might think of. Will DJT do what President Cleveland did? Peter

From “Time:” While an incumbent President has never lost a primary nomination in modern U.S. history, these five challengers put up a serious fight. end quote

From The New York Post: . . .  The last time an incumbent president did not succeed in winning a second four-year term was when George H.W. Bush was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992. In addition to Bush, three other incumbent presidents have lost re-election in the last 100 years. Democrat Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the US, who served from 1977 to 1981, was defeated by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election . . . . The country’s 38th president, Republican Gerald Ford, lost to Carter in 1976 . . . Herbert Hoover, the nation’s 31st president, served between 1929 and 1933 and was defeated by Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in the 1932 election . . . The United States’ 27th president, William Taft, served from 1909 to 1913 and lost his re-election campaign to Democrat Woodrow Wilson . . . Other incumbent chief executives to lose re-election include Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president; Benjamin Harrison, the 23rd president; Martin Van Buren, the eighth president; John Quincy Adams, the sixth president; and his father, John Adams, the country’s second president. Cleveland is the only president in US history to serve two discontinuous terms.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Don't forget that incumbent Lyndon Johnson tucked his tail between his legs and ran away.

I guess he didn't want to be the first.

Michael

[Marc]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

Good thinking Marc. I tapped on that keyboard thingy and found the answer and  . . some of . . . the other Q’s and A’s others might think of. Will DJT do what President Cleveland did? Peter

From “Time:” While an incumbent President has never lost a primary nomination in modern U.S. history, these five challengers put up a serious fight. end quote

From The New York Post: . . .  The last time an incumbent president did not succeed in winning a second four-year term was when George H.W. Bush was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992. In addition to Bush, three other incumbent presidents have lost re-election in the last 100 years. Democrat Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the US, who served from 1977 to 1981, was defeated by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election . . . . The country’s 38th president, Republican Gerald Ford, lost to Carter in 1976 . . . Herbert Hoover, the nation’s 31st president, served between 1929 and 1933 and was defeated by Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in the 1932 election . . . The United States’ 27th president, William Taft, served from 1909 to 1913 and lost his re-election campaign to Democrat Woodrow Wilson . . . Other incumbent chief executives to lose re-election include Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president; Benjamin Harrison, the 23rd president; Martin Van Buren, the eighth president; John Quincy Adams, the sixth president; and his father, John Adams, the country’s second president. Cleveland is the only president in US history to serve two discontinuous terms.

But remember Peter please that out of the 100 million votes minimum that President Trump really got, maybe only 3 or 4 people in the United States will not vote for him again ( respectfully I hope that you vote for him ).

So if I know this methinks DeSantis knows same.

 

[Marc]

Just now, Marc said:

But remember Peter please that out of the 100 million votes minimum that President Trump really got, maybe only 3 or 4 people in the United States will not vote for him again ( respectfully I hope that you vote for him ).

So if I know this methinks DeSantis knows same.

 

Also just saying that Bush losing to Clinton is not the issue.

Now did Bush not win the nomination to run against Clinton is the issue and of course he did.

[Marc]

Hey Peter, here is a non MSM poll for you.

CPAC Straw Poll: Trump 62, DeSantis 22, Everyone Else Single Digits

WWW.BREITBART.COM

---

Donald Trump easily won the CPAC straw poll for the 2024 Republican Party presidential...

 

[Peter]

On 3/6/2023 at 12:30 PM, Marc said:

Donald Trump easily won the CPAC straw poll for the 2024 Republican Party presidential...

I agree with you Marc, unless something weird happens. Another trivial (or meaningful) question is, who’s Kellyanne Conway going to work for, DJTrump or Ron?

From Florida Politics, Kellyanne Conway talking about Ron DeSantis:“ . . . Talk a little bit more about the economic miracle in Florida. I don’t think woke and COVID are two things that are going to win the nomination and ultimately the presidency,” she said, though “they animate a certain population.”

“But I think the more he says that, the more he’s detracting from what’s been a pretty good Republican message: ‘Make America Florida.’ Don’t we all wish? I think the people in the Dakotas wish they could have Florida weather and we all wish the President could have a supermajority to help pass legislation.”

[Marc]

On 3/7/2023 at 2:40 PM, Peter said:

I agree with you Marc, unless something weird happens. Another trivial (or meaningful) question is, who’s Kellyanne Conway going to work for, DJTrump or Ron?

From Florida Politics, Kellyanne Conway talking about Ron DeSantis:“ . . . Talk a little bit more about the economic miracle in Florida. I don’t think woke and COVID are two things that are going to win the nomination and ultimately the presidency,” she said, though “they animate a certain population.”

“But I think the more he says that, the more he’s detracting from what’s been a pretty good Republican message: ‘Make America Florida.’ Don’t we all wish? I think the people in the Dakotas wish they could have Florida weather and we all wish the President could have a supermajority to help pass legislation.”

Excellent question and I would be will  be willing to bet you US dollars to Canadian donuts that she already is working with our beautiful President.

[Guyau]

 

Shared Views over Ability to Win General

[Peter]

Guyau quoted from CNN: ”And 79% say the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses, just a touch below the share who felt that way at the height of the Tea Party movement during Barack Obama’s presidency.”

We need a hero!

I had not thought of the Secret Service being involved in this local arrest matter, but they protect the ex-President. Would they “be there” for President Trump if some local officials try to put him in a cell for obvious political reasons? Would they allow handcuffs to be put on President Trump? Hell no! Peter

From Newsweek: Former President Donald Trump is facing potential charges from the Manhattan District Attorney's office related to an alleged 2016 hush money payment to Stormy Daniels. Dave Aronberg, the state attorney for Palm Beach County, Florida, said that the Secret Service would not allow local law enforcement to put their hands on Trump if he is arrested. Trump's lawyer Joseph Tacopina has said that he will surrender to face charges if he's indicted.

[Guyau]

 

Peter, that 79% number is encouraging. On the other hand: "Asked to name the issue they consider most important in determining who they might support for the nomination, 32% in the potential GOP electorate mention the economy, 16% immigration, and 13% cite specific qualities they’d like to see in a candidate. Fewer name foreign policy (9%), government’s size or spending (7%), or issues related to values, morals and rights (7%)." The 7% on "government size or spending" is discouraging on priorities.

I don't get the concern about local law enforcement in a federal case. I had a friend arrested and convicted for a federal crime, and I'm pretty sure the guys who came to arrest him were FBI. There was no media covering that handcuffed man, of course, who was an ordinary citizen, although the neighbors were looking on. If local law enforcement were to assist the FBI, I'd think the FBI would be directing. But I'm getting the impression that, except for possible campaign finance law jeopardy, the possible charges that might come from New York are statutes of that state, and I don't know the how of all the ways local (Florida in assistance to New York?) the FBI might coordinate in this case. Maybe the FBI is out of it altogether. In other words, maybe an indictment from New York on issues in this case are not federal and do not carry federal even in part. Where state campaign finance laws and the federal laws overlap, the federal take precedence if the case concerns a federal election.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

There are a couple of elephants in the room the CNN polling ladies missed (outside of the proven lack of reliability of CNN polls).

Elephant 1. Republicans (and Democrats for that matter) who are fed up with being lied to in their faces in a blatant manner, irrespective of the issue.

Elephant 2. People who follow the money (dirty money, not clean).

Those, from my view, are the biggest growing contingencies for the 2024 presidential election.

Just look at the trust in media numbers and similar polls to see it. Don't look at political polls. Look at polls for integrity issues.

Michael

[Peter]

From Business Insider, Donald Trump said: . . . "What kind of person can charge another person, in this case a former President of the United States, who got more votes than any sitting President in history, and leading candidate (by far!) for the Republican Party nomination, with a Crime, when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?" Trump wrote on his Twitter-like website. "Why & who would do such a thing?" he added. "Only a degenerate psychopath that truly hates the USA!" . . . Bragg, Trump wrote in the all-caps Truth Social post, "IS JUST CARRYING OUT THE PLANS OF THE RADICAL LEFT LUNATICS. OUR COUNTRY IS BEING DESTROYED, AS THEY TELL US TO BE PEACEFUL!"

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I kinda wonder what to do with this thread.

I am doing most of my Trump posting on older threads, but I like the idea of one devoted to 2024.

However this was started by Stephen and I know he doesn't like Trump. 

Hmnmmm...

I don't mind people criticizing Trump here on OL, nor do I expect everyone to agree with me. 

But I do reserve the right to my own opinion regardless of my position. If I disagree with something, I will speak up. I expect others to do so, also. I mean, that's what you are supposed to do on a discussion forum, right?

Well, the rule here on OL is that everyone speaks for himself, not for the site. And it looks like since the indictment, the Trump juggernaut just got bigger and even more baddass. 

What's more, I do have my own opinion.

So, this thread exists. Might as well use it.

Here is a meme that captures my mood about the circus in NY with idiot Bragg trying to keep Trump from running in 2024 through bogus lawfare, except maybe I'm a bit more jovial about it than the one who posted the meme.

 

 

Michael