The 2020 Presidential Election Tournament

[Peter]

13 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

wonder if this thought ever occurs to Biden supporters...

I doubt it. TDS. Neo-Communism. Kamala, Cortes, Bernie. Biden. I doubt it.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

12 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

You imply a Someone, Michael, with the way you frame the question.

Ellen,

Just to make sure I'm not misunderstood, I used to do like everyone normally did at one time and avoid saying the words, God and Jesus.

Over time, that started grating on my nerves. I think there is something visceral that rejects PC language in me. So I started using the words, not often, but whenever Christianity came up.

Then, in discussing Christian stories, I used to add 4 or 5 qualifications each segment to make sure people knew I was not preaching Christianity. That made discussing it really clunky. And irritating. So these days I sometimes add a qualification or not, but when I do, I limit it to, "according to the Christian storyline" or something like that and just leave it. Then I discuss the stories like I do any story with characters.

When I talked about Jesus earning the right to go through the gates of Heaven and sit on the Throne beside God, that happens to be inside the story-universe of Christianity. So, when I talk about that story, I do so from within the conventions of that story-universe. For me, it feels more honest an unencumbered with unwanted subtexts that way.

I do believe in the existence of the mental transcendence I talked about and how some of the Christian stories illustrate it, but the rest of the Christian elements are difficult for me to accept as hard facts existing in the same way we understand existence, even if in another realm.

And that leads me to something I have said often. I lost a lot of my certainties when I started studying a lot, including reading all those sacred texts in the major religions.

I do have certainties about things I can observe and derive from observation. But when there is something other people are certain about and I can't access a way to observe it, I claim ignorance.

It's fashionable in O-Land, for instance, to claim the universe is finite. I think Peikoff came up with that idea. There is no way I can observe that, so I say, "I wouldn't know." But the people who claim that do so with the certainty of saying it's raining when they see rain. I find that odd nowadays, but I don't fight with them over this. 

So, is there a "Someone" controlling the universe? I doubt it, but the truth is, I don't know. Modern scientists and really smart people claim we are living in a simulation. That, to me, means a "Someone" controlling the simulating, or at least programming the simulation algorithms.

Does that exist and/or does that someone-like being exist? I doubt it. But how can I observe that or something that negates it on a size-of-the-universe scale? I don't exist on a size-of-the-universe scale and I have no access to instruments that do. So I don't know. No certainties here.

What I can say with certainty is that the universe is huge, seemingly endless in the big direction, and microscopic, seemingly endless in the tiny direction, at the same time. There is a lot in both directions I can't observe, even with instruments. 

That's not the way I would like tings to be, but that's the way I observe them to be.

Ditto for an afterlife. Is there one? I don't know. I used to know with certainty there wasn't. But I lost that certainty. Not because I'm older and doing a variation on Pascal's wager, but because I can't observe it.

I see glimpses at times there might be, and I see glimpses at times that there might not be. I have nothing to fit that to, but nothing to negate it with, either. It is supposed to take place in the "out there" of bigness/smallness and/or other dimensions and I just can't get there to see for myself. Except by dying. Needless to say, I'm not in a hurry to hasten my end to answer that question. So, "I don't know" it is.

But I can still use the names of God and Jesus in Christian stories and, these days, I am quite comfortable doing so. That sometimes gives a wrong impression, but people eventually get used to me.

 

Michael

[william.scherk]

14 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

What is the first thing a Biden supporter thinks when seeing something like the following?

I usually charge for the wear and tear of providing psychic readings.  But let's see if we can peer into Chris Wallace's heart, perhaps to find stains of evul.

Good thing the next presidential debate in Miami is still on. It's a so-called Town Hall format.  With the ingenuity of the Trump and Biden campaigns' digital operations, they should be able to pull off a Super Zoom event with least chances of transmission -- should the in-person event be medically inadvisable for the President (or challenger). To hear Wallace above, unmasked participants will be thrown out of the actual hall if they don't obey the commission rules.

I thought to add some topical zaniness ... from HA Goodman, balanced by book-ends Styx and Tim Pool.  

 

 

 

[ThatGuy]

Polls, polls, polls, or, "You got your experts, and we've got ours..."
 

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with Covid – EXCLUSIVE

DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

7 hours ago, ThatGuy said:

Polls, polls, polls, or, "You got your experts, and we've got ours..."

TG,

All polls in the fake news media are wildly inaccurate, but they will get closer to reality starting about one week before the election.

The reason is, before that one week period, they are not polls intended to reflect reality. They are, in practice (but not name), suppression polls. Their purpose is to manipulate public perception, thus alter their voting habits and choices.

A week out from election day, the fundamental nature of these polls changes. Suddenly correct types of people will be polled in the correct quantity and some of the polls will be published. These polls are, in practice (but not name), cover-your-ass polls.  

A polling company that is wrong about everything close to election day loses clients for the next go around.

There is one kind of poll that tends to be accurate (and, even then, not all the time). This is called an "internal poll" and is rarely published. This is only for insiders.

When you start seeing weird shit that looks like Hail Mary passes by one political party or another, that means the internal polls are looking like hell for their side and they are panicking. That's when a lot of "muh racists" campaigns start, for instance.

 

Discuss and argue about polls if you like. But it's the same thing as talking about a game show teams. One week out is the time to start talking about polls in relation to the actual election and be somewhere in the ball park of reality.

Michael

[ThatGuy]

51 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

There is one kind of poll that tends to be accurate (and, even then, not all the time). This is called an "internal poll" and is rarely published. This is only for insiders.

That's the second time tonight I've heard about "internal polls". I'm not certain where I heard it, now, but it stuck out to me, for some reason. I guess this is why!

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here's one hell of a great metaphor for the difference between Trump's campaign and Biden's.

President Trump has been buying pizza for the supporters who are out in front of the hospital where he is at.

Now here's the metaphor. It's what this guy in the video said.

Quote

You know it's from Trump because this shit isn't gluten free. There's meat on it.

Michael

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

On 10/3/2020 at 10:16 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Where is the list of high-level Democrats getting sick?

Lookee here.

I'm not the only one seeing it.

And that's not the only movie storyline that can be made, either.

This makes a great Deep State thriller, too.

The hero can be a low-level idealistic Democrat (male) who sees or overhears the Deep State people plotting to infect the prez and his folks. He has a crisis of conscience when he sees a Dem bigwig in on it. So he gathers proof and tries to warn the prez in time, but can't get through security. However, a Deep Stater close by at the time hears him trying to communicate what he saw and shortly thereafter tries to kill him (run him over with a car or something). The hero escapes and runs away and the chase is on.

However, someone close to Trump (female) saw what happened and tries to reach out to the hero on the run because the hero has the proof she needs to convince the prez a person close to him is in on it. Soon other people are getting infected, a different person close to the prez, a Republican, threatens her and she's on the run, too.

Nobody knows who to trust anymore.

Parallel to this, the Chinese spooks are amazed this is falling into their laps and they move up their timeline on some nefarious plans of their own.

Man, this can go in all different kinds of directions. The two people on the run can finally meet and develop a romance as they are running and trying to get the message out. They still don't know for sure who is after them, but they discover darker and darker secrets as they go along, just missing getting killed over and over and sometimes getting captured and tortured before escaping.

Then, to up the stakes, a super virus comes on the scene--one that kills quickly and is super-contagious. Some mysterious people behind it, no one yet knows who, send a message to the press and other places that they will release it if certain demands are not met.

Somehow that just feel true. Hell, it probably is in some form.

Michael

[Peter]

7 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Man, this can go in all different kinds of directions. The two people on the run can finally meet and develop a romance as they are running and trying to get the message out. They still don't know for sure who is after them, but they discover darker and darker secrets as they go along, just missing getting killed over and over and sometimes getting captured and tortured before escaping.

The Italians, after a resurgence of the plague, are calling it The Black Death. 

edit. And the French are closing all bars. Now is not the time to become complacent or do risky things. Stay safe. Survive and hunker down a bit longer.

[Peter]

Is it Halloween yet? What is a Grimm you ask? It’s a hero who fights the supernatural beasts of the world. Kayleigh McEnany the pretty blond spokes lady has tested positive, and President Trump nearly apologized for something . . . but what was it . . .  saying he has learned a lot about Covid-19 in the last few days. It’s 29 days to the election on November 3, 2020 and things are looking “Grimm.” Up until recently several polls showed a near tie for the popular vote. But Biden was ‘awoke’ after the debate and winning the Electoral College easily. Now, dear viewers, we need to sharpen our epistemological gifts and reapers, because things are looking even grimmer. Nick Burkhardt

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday . . . .  shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

Quotes from the television show, “Grimm.”  Nick Burkhardt: “If the fortune tellers were any good, they would have seen it coming.” Adalind: I am not going to be looking in any mirrors without you. Eve : I think there is a choice, even when there appears to be none. But it’s the reaction that determines whether the choice is good or bad, not the person who makes it. The Queen Bee:  She’ll sting you one day. Oh, ever so gently, you’ll hardly even feel it. `til you fall dead. Monroe: “Lighten-up, I’m just making a point. I’m not that kind of big bad wolf. Come on, let’s grab a brew.” The Spirit in the Bottle: Let me out, let me out,’ the spirit cried. And the boy, thinking no evil, drew the cork out of the bottle. Nick: If they’re looking for a Grimm, the last place they’ll expect to find him is next to a Blutbaden in the middle of the Black Forest. Renard: If you seek peace prepare for war.

[ThatGuy]

8 minutes ago, Peter said:

Is it Halloween yet? What is a Grimm you ask? It’s a hero who fights the supernatural beasts of the world. Kayleigh McEnany the pretty blond spokes lady has tested positive, and President Trump nearly apologized for something . . . but what was it . . .  saying he has learned a lot about Covid-19 in the last few days. It’s 29 days to the election on November 3, 2020 and things are looking “Grimm.” Up until recently several polls showed a near tie for the popular vote. But Biden was ‘awoke’ after the debate and winning the Electoral College easily. Now, dear viewers, we need to sharpen our epistemological gifts and reapers, because things are looking even grimmer. Nick Burkhardt

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday . . . .  shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

Quotes from the television show, “Grimm.”  Nick Burkhardt: “If the fortune tellers were any good, they would have seen it coming.” Adalind: I am not going to be looking in any mirrors without you. Eve : I think there is a choice, even when there appears to be none. But it’s the reaction that determines whether the choice is good or bad, not the person who makes it. The Queen Bee:  She’ll sting you one day. Oh, ever so gently, you’ll hardly even feel it. `til you fall dead. Monroe: “Lighten-up, I’m just making a point. I’m not that kind of big bad wolf. Come on, let’s grab a brew.” The Spirit in the Bottle: Let me out, let me out,’ the spirit cried. And the boy, thinking no evil, drew the cork out of the bottle. Nick: If they’re looking for a Grimm, the last place they’ll expect to find him is next to a Blutbaden in the middle of the Black Forest. Renard: If you seek peace prepare for war.

Sorry, Peter, not sharing your "grimm" outlook.

[Peter]

25 minutes ago, ThatGuy said:

Sorry, Peter, not sharing your "grimm" outlook.

I hope you are right, That Guy. Follow the polls with skepticism but as Michael said? when there is a week to go . . . pay attention to the evidence. Peter

From Bing. Reagan won the election by an electoral margin of 489-49 and captured almost 51 percent of the popular vote. At age 69, he was the oldest person elected to the U.S. presidency.

Joe Biden’s Age: He Would Be the Oldest President . . . How old is Joe Biden? He was born on November 20, 1942. That makes him 76-years-old in April 2019. It also means that he would be 78-years-old on inauguration day if he were to win the presidency in November 2020. He would be 82 if he sought re-election.

Some excerpts from Political positions of Kamala Harris From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The political positions of Kamala Harris are reflected by her United States Senate voting record, public speeches, and interviews. Kamala Harris has served as the junior senator from California since 2017. On August 11, 2020, Harris was selected by presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to be his running mate in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

In 2013, when she was California Attorney General, Harris allowed the Hoag Memorial Hospital Presbyterian to cease the availability of elective abortions, after it entered a partnership with a Catholic chain, St. Joseph Health System.^[3] The ban was made due to St. Joseph's "sensitivity" about abortion. 

Harris opposed California's ban on affirmative action.^[11] She asked the Supreme Court to "reaffirm its decision that public colleges and universities may consider race as one factor in admissions decisions.
Harris is opposed to the death penalty, but has said that she would review each case individually.^[

In December 2018, Harris voted for the First Step Act, legislation aimed at reducing recidivism rates among federal prisoners through expanding job training and other programs in addition to forming an expansion of early-release programs and modifications on sentencing laws such as mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug offenders, "to more equitably punish drug offenders.

 Harris did not initially support the legalization of recreational marijuana, but later moved to support legalization.^[27] In 2010, while campaigning for Attorney General of California, she opposed Proposition 19, the first failed attempt to legalize recreational marijuana in California, on the grounds that selling drugs harms communities.^[28] In 2015, she called for an end on the federal prohibition of medical marijuana.

 Harris has argued for treating "habitual and chronic truancy" among children in elementary school as a crime committed by the parents of truant children.

On December 21, 2017, Harris was one of six senators to introduce the "Secure Elections Act", legislation authorizing block grants for states that would update outdated voting technology. The act would also create a program for an independent panel of experts to develop cybersecurity guidelines for election systems that states could adopt if they choose, along with offering states resources to implement the recommendations

Harris earned an "F" rating from the National Rifle Association for her consistent efforts supporting gun control

Harris has expressed support for San Francisco's sanctuary city policy of not inquiring about immigration status in the process of a criminal investigation.^[56] She argued that it is important that immigrants be able to talk with law enforcement without fear.

 In September 2016, Governor Jerry Brown signed Assembly Bill 1671 into law, which was reportedly drafted by Harris, with input from Planned Parenthood – which sponsored the bill – making it a criminal offense to intentionally distribute, or to help with the dissemination of, unlawfully obtained confidential communications.^[6][7]

Since her election to the Senate, Harris has maintained a 100% rating by the abortion rights advocacy group, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and a 0% rating by the anti-abortion group, National Right to Life Committee.^[92] She was also endorsed by Emily's List in 2015 during her Senatorial Campaign.

Harris's 2020 campaign has disavowed most corporate donations, and has committed to rejecting money from corporate political action committees for her presidential campaign, in favor of relying on small and large individual donors.

On August 30, 2017, Harris announced at a town hall in Oakland that she would co-sponsor fellow Senator Bernie Sanders' "Medicare for All" bill, supporting single-payer healthcare.

In May 2019, Harris stated she would not have voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) due to her belief that "we can do a better job to protect American workers" and called for the United States to do "a better job in terms of thinking about the priorities that should be more apparent now than perhaps they were then, which are issues like the climate crisis and what we need to build into these trade agreements

In September 2019, The New York Times issued a questionnaire including the question "Under what circumstances other than a literally imminent threat to the United States, if any, does the Constitution permit a president to order an attack on another country without prior Congressional authorization? What about bombing Iranian or North Korean nuclear facilities?" Harris answered "The President’s top priority is to keep America secure, and I won't hesitate to do what it takes to protect our country in the face of an imminent threat in the future. But after almost two decades of war, it is long past time for Congress to rewrite the Authorization for Use of Military Force that governs our current military conflicts. The situations in Iran or North Korea would require careful consideration of all of the surrounding facts and circumstances."

[Peter]

I had a heck of a time cutting and pasting from RCP. 270 electoral votes are required to win the Presidency. Peter

Real Clear Politics Electoral College predictions as of today, October 5, 2020.

226 for Biden

187 tossups

125 for Trump

Toss up states as of today Pennsylvania (20) Iowa (6) Florida (29) Nevada (6) Wisconsin (10) Arizona (11) Michigan (16) Texas (38) Ohio (18) Maine CD2 (1) North Carolina (15) Nebraska CD2 (1) Georgia (16)

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

2 minutes ago, Peter said:

226 for Biden

187 tossups

125 for Trump

Peter,

Don't people have to vote first?

 

Michael

[ThatGuy]

49 minutes ago, Peter said:

I hope you are right, That Guy. Follow the polls with skepticism but as Michael said? when there is a week to go . . . pay attention to the evidence. Peter

Hold the line; "it ain't over 'til it's over..."

Here, maybe this give you some hope...
 

 

[tmj]

Wish he'd have said Wuhan Flu .

[Peter]

6 minutes ago, tmj said:

Wish he'd have said Wuhan Flu .

An interesting quote from “Imperium,” by Robert Harris: Cicero is speaking: “Sometimes, if you find yourself stuck in politics, the thing to do is start a fight – start a fight, even if you do not know how you are going to win it, because it is only when a fight is on, and everything is in motion, that you can hope to see your way through.”

I like the Italian's name for Covid-19. The Black Death. "Put'em up. Put'em up," said The Cowardly Lion in The Wizard of Oz. 

[Peter]

51 minutes ago, ThatGuy said:

Hold the line; "it ain't over 'til it's over..."

His docs just held a news conference and his prognosis looks good . . . .  but "it ain't over 'til it's over . . . . "

[ThatGuy]

10 minutes ago, Peter said:

His docs just held a news conference and his prognosis looks good . . . .  but "it ain't over 'til it's over . . . . "

Fine, Peter. Revel in your doom and gloom.
But I'll do without your constant chorus of demoralizing nay-saying. It's one thing to be realistic; it's another to actively look to defeat.  There's enough of it to contend with from the other side without your aiding and abetting the enemy.

 

[Peter]

"But I'll do without your constant chorus of demoralizing nay-saying."

Sorry. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. I was trying to bring a different perspective by presenting contrary evidence.

[tmj]

16 minutes ago, Peter said:

An interesting quote from “Imperium,” by Robert Harris: Cicero is speaking: “Sometimes, if you find yourself stuck in politics, the thing to do is start a fight – start a fight, even if you do not know how you are going to win it, because it is only when a fight is on, and everything is in motion, that you can hope to see your way through.”

I like the Italian's name for Covid-19. The Black Death. "Put'em up. Put'em up," said The Cowardly Lion in The Wizard of Oz. 

The Italians are obviously racist, watch who you associate with. The China Death Plague is a more apt moniker.

[Peter]

1 minute ago, tmj said:

The China Death Plague is a more apt moniker.

That is good! I think calling it the Yellow Death would have been more racist. I don't think Europeans will forgive and forget. It is unfortunate that so much of our medical supplies, etc., etc., come from Red China.  

[Peter]

Fox is reporting that The White may shut down if things get worse and people will try to work remotely.

edit. Some good news at 4pm? The Dow is at 28,142.

 

[Peter]

One more deep thought and I will switch seats and stop posting for a while? Promise.

The Paths to the Nomination Part 1: This Time Is Different January 18, 2016 by Robert Tracinski . . . . Trump's strategy, by contrast, has a major subtractive element. He has pandered so hard to one particular kind of voter that they have given him their fanatical devotion . . . .  The harder you appeal to this one group, the more you risk alienating other groups. Pander to the hard-core anti- immigrationists and you lose the Hispanic vote. Pander to the wild-eyed populists and you lose the sober moderates . . . . end quote

Was Robert wrong? That’s a joke. I mentioned before that a mostly black area I drive through to get to the dump has about six Biden, Kamala signs. While the neighborhood in the country where I live only has Trrrrump signs. I ordered one on Amazon about a week ago but I still have not received it. I am not sure that support for one group necessarily alienates another group. But I do think there is some racial / emotional support for the Dem’s ticket and maybe even for Trump / Pence. It is kind of biased but maybe not racist. Peter  

[tmj]

He was wrong in 2016, in that Trump wasn't 'anti-immigration' , he was and his supporters were/are anti illegal immigration , so analysis along the lines of the false premise will be incorrect to the actual policy and support for said policy.

Given that his support from the Hispanic sector has increased since 2016, I'd say his voters understood his policy and generally agree with it, as would any American wage earner. Illegal immigration drives down domestic wages, and  forces up public expenditures .