Donald Trump

[william.scherk]

In BC it is legal to kill a crow, but not a raven. Please cook and can before sending it UPS to me or Marc up here in the socialist hellhole. There may be a delay at customs, and they get fussy about food.

William,

Oh my, this is getting fun.

I'll try to set it up so you and Marc eat the crow at the same time. I'll come up to Canada.

I want to bring a camera and video, too.

I would say to make it more palatable, we can boil the crow in old shoe soup. But I know me. I'm a softie. I wouldn't want to rub it in that badly.

Michael

Before we get out the recipe book, I want to make clear what I will be eating crow for; I mean, is it simply because I do not believe that Trump will capture the GOP nomination, or are there other criteria?

Nobody has you down on the betting slips, I don't think, Michael. I understand that your favourite is Trump, but I don't know if that means you are making a prediction (my prediction/guess in Adam's thread on the eventual GOP and Democratic tickets was Clinton/O'Malley + Bush/Walker).

What is your prediction for the GOP winner coming out of the convention in Cleveland a year from today? I mean, is that what the crow-eating will be decided upon -- your guess versus the perfidious Canucki guesses?

I will have a look through the threads to see if you made a guess or judgement call or straightforward prediction ... and revise this comment as necessary.

(in my dreams, some of you American OLers might make a corresponding prediction about the results of our election tentatively scheduled for this October. In my dreams. Dream on.)

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

William,

I am not so much making a prediction as reacting against the dogmatic "Trump will never be the candidate, much less president." So I say fuck it. As a dare, you say he won't and I say he will.

My preferred position, though, is to root for him and stump. This prediction stuff is a game (or propaganda) and nothing more.

Unlike some crow-eaters I know, I am not the owner of knowledge about all future outcomes.

But don't worry. I've seen you on video. You come off well. Marc does, too.

Michael

[Mikee]

William, I predict some f'ng socialist will win and you're stuck in your doldrums for another hundred years...

[Plenty of bread and circuses: Canadian Bacon and Ice Hockey] Don't forget free health care! I can see why you look at the US and say "What are you assholes complaining about?"]

I wintered over in Alaska once (close enough)...brrr...who cares who wins your elections?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

For those interested, this just came out on Drudge:

Here is the article it links to:

Weekend Iowa Poll: No Trump Slump for McCain Remarks

I have to read it a little later today as I have to go out. But I'm sure it will please some and give others heartburn.

Michael

[william.scherk]

William,

I am not so much making a prediction as reacting against the dogmatic "Trump will never be the candidate, much less president." So I say fuck it. As a dare, you say he won't and I say he will.

My preferred position, though, is to root for him and stump. This prediction stuff is a game (or propaganda) and nothing more.

Unlike some crow-eaters I know, I am not the owner of knowledge about all future outcomes.

But don't worry. I've seen you on video. You come off well. Marc does, too.

Michael

My questions were misplaced, then. I will eat crow if Donald Trump clinches the GOP nomination. Will you eat crow if he does not?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

My questions were misplaced, then. I will eat crow if Donald Trump clinches the GOP nomination. Will you eat crow if he does not?

William,

I'd rather not, but unfortunately, that's the way it works.

Good thing that will not happen.

Michael

Note: I don't like to make predictions, but fuck it. I'm in. Might as well be obnoxious about it.

[Brant Gaede]

My questions were misplaced, then. I will eat crow if Donald Trump clinches the GOP nomination. Will you eat crow if he does not?

William,

I'd rather not, but unfortunately, that's the way it works.

Good thing that will not happen.

Michael

Note: I don't like to make predictions, but fuck it. I'm in. Might as well be obnoxious about it.

That's right. Stay true to yourself.

--Brant

[Marc]

Gee Mark...I said the same thing about Obama in 2007. Especially when he picked Biden, I laughed out loud. You represent a fringe of a fringe of a fringe. What makes you think you can predict Trumps appeal to a majority of voters?

Well , first of all my good friend , just because you incorrectly did not pick Obama in 2007 what does this have to do with me predicting Trump will not win in 2016 ??? Maybe you should have learned a lesson in 2007 . Now , you can read me here so we don't need to have the same discussion in 8 years from now . What makes me think I am able to predict Trumps appeal ? My knowledge of US politics basically .

We are not good friends.

So, basically... ??? nothing. I give Trump less than 50% chance. To say he has absolutely no chance at all with certainty is perhaps a reasonably safe bet but that's how a pompous blowhard speaks. Especially one from Canada who, if Trump does win the nomination, can say "Look how stupid those Americans are, I thought they were smarter". Definitely pompous blowhard set up material

How does me saying so emphatically that he has zero chance to win a safe bet ???? Considering he is currently leading the polls as well ? How is my physical location an issue ? Why would you assume I would call Americans stupid if I am wrong ?

As for " my good friend " , I was just trying to be polite , and your insult back me to me sure does prove that we are not good friends so at least we agree there .

[Marc]

I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

Just for the record , I traded institutional futures , options and stocks for many a year . Did pretty well too but not really the issue . You always short on value because when folks see value - the traders do too , hence its discounted . As an example , personally I would short Apple here all day long on pretty good value . The trend is your friend remark about momentum is one of the real cliche things . I mean do you really believe that folks don't short the top tick and make gazillions doing so ? The real way to make money is exactly that , to short against momentum and but when there is blood in the streets . That was what Baron Rothschild said ( not that he was correct , just saying )

Nice. How did you short in actual practice? By borrowing the stock? Put options? Apple's up 2.40 today. It spent a lot of time basing out in the low 120s now it's over 1.32.

--Brant

We did pretty sophisticated strategies with futures and options on futures but I don't wanna hijack a Trump thread and talk about stocks more than my simple example so please feel free to email me or PM and we can discuss butterfly and credit spreads to your hearts content . I mean hey , as for Apple thats the market , right ? someone thinks up , another thinks down .

[Marc]

William, a guess is a guess. "zero chance" is blowhard material.

In my case, I thought I was very rational when I gave Obama "slim to none" chances. Does it mean I'm irrational the fact that he won twice? Or I haven't studied the spoor enough to know all the variables? People always surprise me both ways, both smarter and dumber than I give them credit for. I mean, always. Sometimes peoples (ordinary people) intuition seems anti-rational, but people seem to intuit the unknown variables and are right.

I really do not believe Trump wants to be President . I think he wants to be the King maker . I think he wants to shake some stuff up , and boy - is he ever going to do that . I also could care less about polls 16 months before an election. Too much stuff will still happen and events in the future will help determine the race obviously . Zero chance in my view as I do not believe he has any intention of winning the nomination . If I wanted to shake up the 2 party system , and be a king maker - I would do exactly what Trump is doing . I do not see how this is blowhard material .

[Mikee]

William, a guess is a guess. "zero chance" is blowhard material.

In my case, I thought I was very rational when I gave Obama "slim to none" chances. Does it mean I'm irrational the fact that he won twice? Or I haven't studied the spoor enough to know all the variables? People always surprise me both ways, both smarter and dumber than I give them credit for. I mean, always. Sometimes peoples (ordinary people) intuition seems anti-rational, but people seem to intuit the unknown variables and are right.

I really do not believe Trump wants to be President . I think he wants to be the King maker . I think he wants to shake some stuff up , and boy - is he ever going to do that . I also could care less about polls 16 months before an election. Too much stuff will still happen and events in the future will help determine the race obviously . Zero chance in my view as I do not believe he has any intention of winning the nomination . If I wanted to shake up the 2 party system , and be a king maker - I would do exactly what Trump is doing . I do not see how this is blowhard material .

This makes sense.

What do you think of Carly Fiorina?

[Brant Gaede]

I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

Just for the record , I traded institutional futures , options and stocks for many a year . Did pretty well too but not really the issue . You always short on value because when folks see value - the traders do too , hence its discounted . As an example , personally I would short Apple here all day long on pretty good value . The trend is your friend remark about momentum is one of the real cliche things . I mean do you really believe that folks don't short the top tick and make gazillions doing so ? The real way to make money is exactly that , to short against momentum and but when there is blood in the streets . That was what Baron Rothschild said ( not that he was correct , just saying )

Nice. How did you short in actual practice? By borrowing the stock? Put options? Apple's up 2.40 today. It spent a lot of time basing out in the low 120s now it's over 1.32.

--Brant

We did pretty sophisticated strategies with futures and options on futures but I don't wanna hijack a Trump thread and talk about stocks more than my simple example so please feel free to email me or PM and we can discuss butterfly and credit spreads to your hearts content . I mean hey , as for Apple thats the market , right ? someone thinks up , another thinks down .

I agree about the thread. As for the rest I want a rain check until I'm ready to use those techniques and then I might run something by you for ad hoc feedback. Right now I'm concentrating on selling cash covered puts to stock to covered calls back to puts. Actually doing something is the last step in my learning. Next will be spreads. These techniques are actually the easiest part of what I'm doing. The key is picking the stock, a stock I'm willing to own indefinitely. A good company with a good dividend. I do not care to buy options, generally, mostly sell them. I am willing to buy in the money calls then counter by a short as a hedge after the stock goes up. That way I can let the options ride further. That's theorectical right now by me. Selling options, for me, is part of an investing mantra. Buying options and shorting is trading. I might buy a put to hold a stock against a short-term tax liability.

--Brant

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Rush sees exactly what I see:

Trump Teachable Moment

After new polling, Trump might take a small hit about the McCain thing, but I doubt it. And even if it does, I predict it will rebound solidly.

Rush's ear to the ground in Iowa says, poll-wise, not a blip against Trump so far (meaning July 20), but it's still early.

In Rush's analysis, Trump is not playing by the rules and following expectations by apologizing and receiving a pat on the head so he can fade away. He's doubling down on his criticism of McCain. The media and elites are outraged and Trump's growing fan base is applauding.

Rush says the fundamental flaw the Drive-By media makes in a situation like this is they presume their outrage and the outrage of Washington elite reflect the views of the American people. But the average American does not follow them. Rush says he himself is proof. And he thinks Trump is going to be proof, too.

Interestingly, he does not even support Trump.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

btw - I am going to have so much fun watching my dear friends eat crow...

Michael

[Marc]

William, a guess is a guess. "zero chance" is blowhard material.

In my case, I thought I was very rational when I gave Obama "slim to none" chances. Does it mean I'm irrational the fact that he won twice? Or I haven't studied the spoor enough to know all the variables? People always surprise me both ways, both smarter and dumber than I give them credit for. I mean, always. Sometimes peoples (ordinary people) intuition seems anti-rational, but people seem to intuit the unknown variables and are right.

I really do not believe Trump wants to be President . I think he wants to be the King maker . I think he wants to shake some stuff up , and boy - is he ever going to do that . I also could care less about polls 16 months before an election. Too much stuff will still happen and events in the future will help determine the race obviously . Zero chance in my view as I do not believe he has any intention of winning the nomination . If I wanted to shake up the 2 party system , and be a king maker - I would do exactly what Trump is doing . I do not see how this is blowhard material .

This makes sense.

What do you think of Carly Fiorina?

I love her !!!! Will someone pick her for the VP ? Assuming she does not get the nomination

[Marc]

I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

Just for the record , I traded institutional futures , options and stocks for many a year . Did pretty well too but not really the issue . You always short on value because when folks see value - the traders do too , hence its discounted . As an example , personally I would short Apple here all day long on pretty good value . The trend is your friend remark about momentum is one of the real cliche things . I mean do you really believe that folks don't short the top tick and make gazillions doing so ? The real way to make money is exactly that , to short against momentum and but when there is blood in the streets . That was what Baron Rothschild said ( not that he was correct , just saying )

Nice. How did you short in actual practice? By borrowing the stock? Put options? Apple's up 2.40 today. It spent a lot of time basing out in the low 120s now it's over 1.32.

--Brant

We did pretty sophisticated strategies with futures and options on futures but I don't wanna hijack a Trump thread and talk about stocks more than my simple example so please feel free to email me or PM and we can discuss butterfly and credit spreads to your hearts content . I mean hey , as for Apple thats the market , right ? someone thinks up , another thinks down .

I agree about the thread. As for the rest I want a rain check until I'm ready to use those techniques and then I might run something by you for ad hoc feedback. Right now I'm concentrating on selling cash covered puts to stock to covered calls back to puts. Actually doing something is the last step in my learning. Next will be spreads. These techniques are actually the easiest part of what I'm doing. The key is picking the stock, a stock I'm willing to own indefinitely. A good company with a good dividend. I do not care to buy options, generally, mostly sell them. I am willing to buy in the money calls then counter by a short as a hedge after the stock goes up. That way I can let the options ride further. That's theorectical right now by me. Selling options, for me, is part of an investing mantra. Buying options and shorting is trading. I might buy a put to hold a stock against a short-term tax liability.

--Brant

Your strategy is perfect ! Good stock , bring in cash - thats the way . Just in case the stock does tank for whatever reason you could buy an out of the money put too - real cheap . Just in case . Selling options , bring in cash - thats the mantra indeed !!! Thats what the pros do

[Marc]

btw - I am going to have so much fun watching my dear friends eat crow...

Michael

keep it coming baby !!!! Just for the record my mom , my daughters bf , my friend Ray ( who you have heard of ) and 3 folks at the hospital last night ( don't ask ) all say Trump is going to win .

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I'm giving this for now, but, if the pattern holds, there will probably be a new outrage about Trump later today.

New poll finds some good news for Donald Trump after his attack on John McCain

A first poll in Iowa, where he is running second to Scott Walter, showed no change.

Trump certainly knows how to push the media's buttons.

The funny thing is lots of media people and elites are calling him a sideshow, however, he is proving that the media itself and the elites are the sideshow.

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

To close this out--re Marc's #50--and let this thread do what it's supposed to do, do not sell naked puts unless you understand use and misuse of leverage. Stick with covered calls. The possible destruction is off the charts. (This is for any neophytes.)

--Brant

[Marc]

To close this out--re Marc's #50--and let this thread do what it's supposed to do, do not sell naked puts unless you understand use and misuse of leverage. Stick with covered calls. The possible destruction is off the charts. (This is for any neophytes.)

--Brant

Good advice but I do want to clarify that I was stating to buy way out of the money puts for your position just as a hedge incase your covered call stock got hit hard on the downside or a severe market hit . Cost base would be cheap and it could be a perfect hedge too ( depending which puts one buys ) .

Naked puts .... ouch !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

The forum software problem got fixed so now I have merged the "Donald Trump part 2" thread with this one.

Michael

[Mikee]

William, a guess is a guess. "zero chance" is blowhard material.

In my case, I thought I was very rational when I gave Obama "slim to none" chances. Does it mean I'm irrational the fact that he won twice? Or I haven't studied the spoor enough to know all the variables? People always surprise me both ways, both smarter and dumber than I give them credit for. I mean, always. Sometimes peoples (ordinary people) intuition seems anti-rational, but people seem to intuit the unknown variables and are right.

I really do not believe Trump wants to be President . I think he wants to be the King maker . I think he wants to shake some stuff up , and boy - is he ever going to do that . I also could care less about polls 16 months before an election. Too much stuff will still happen and events in the future will help determine the race obviously . Zero chance in my view as I do not believe he has any intention of winning the nomination . If I wanted to shake up the 2 party system , and be a king maker - I would do exactly what Trump is doing . I do not see how this is blowhard material .

This makes sense.

What do you think of Carly Fiorina?

I love her !!!! Will someone pick her for the VP ? Assuming she does not get the nomination

Good to hear. Me too.

I hope you're not pulling my leg, I'm not very good at picking up on that. Assuming you're not, I am sort of hoping for VP at least too. Then president. She is very smart, sincere, anti-government interference in everything, anti-crony capitalist, respects people from all walks of life and believes in solving problems not creating them. She needs to be present in the debates, her observations, comments and intelligence will change the course of the discussion throughout the campaign even if she doesn't become a candidate.

I apologize for my previous rudeness.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Donald Trump made a Facebook post about an hour ago.

I made a comment to that post and people started liking it like crazy.

Here is a screenshot.

I don't know these people from Adam (not our Adam, I mean the one in the saying ). And here are comments people made on my post. Notice that this screenshot is 2 minutes later than the one above (which I needed for image preparation) and there is already a bump in the number of likes.

This is not about me.

I spoke about something that lots of people are feeling.

Michael

[Selene]

I had a formatting issue lol...

[Selene]

Donald Trump made a Facebook post about an hour ago.

I made a comment to that post and people started liking it like crazy.

...........................................

I spoke about something that lots of people are feeling.

Michael

And it is hope that we can actually believe in and rely on.