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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination .

Marc,

Heh.

Man am I glad that's on record.

It's nice to have something to point to later at crow-eating time.

:)

Michael

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I posted the following on Pt. 1 but for some reason it doesn't show up.

I'll re-post it here.

Basically I said I agree with Trump.

McCain is no hero but rather a survivor of the hell that was his imprisonment imo.

Now here are 2 real war heroes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audie_Murphy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_C._York

Yes indeed both surviving Medal of Honor Recipients.

http://www.cmohs.org/recipient-detail/2613/york-alvin-c.php

Murphy was a tough little Irishman ...

http://www.cmohs.org/recipient-detail/2907/murphy-audie-l.php

Wow, he looks just like the guy in the movie!

2907.jpg

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination .

Marc,

Heh.

Man am I glad that's on record.

It's nice to have something to point to later at crow-eating time.

:smile:

Michael

Man , you know I just love US politics . The ruthlessness of it . Wait till the politicians get going on this guy . Wait till they start playing some politics with him . A side prediction right here but I do not believe he will even be in the race by the end of August . Maybe 3rd party but not for the GOP

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Gee Mark...I said the same thing about Obama in 2007. Especially when he picked Biden, I laughed out loud. You represent a fringe of a fringe of a fringe. What makes you think you can predict Trumps appeal to a majority of voters?

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

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Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS.

Marc,

How do you like your crow, barbecued, baked, fried or just plain raw?

I would like to know now so I can find a nice scrawny bird for you for when the time comes.

:)

Michael

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Marc:

This is the start of the thread and I have some summarizing of who has made their latest predictions and what date they chose it. Housekeeping lol.

Trump's success has truly changed the "politiscape" [new word] of this race and I have not figured out it's potential effects yet and am quite hopeful of his impact.

I do not write him off as quickly as some here have.

http://www.objectivistliving.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=15199#entry230210

A...

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Trump Says He Heroically Avoided Capture in Vietnam by Staying in U.S.

AMES, IOWA (The Borowitz Report)-Presidential candidate Donald Trump revealed a little-known episode of personal heroism from his youth on Saturday, telling an Iowa audience that he narrowly avoided capture in Vietnam by remaining in the United States for the duration of the war.

“The Cong were after me,” Trump said, visibly stirred by the memory. “And then, just in the nick of time, I got my deferment.”

The former reality-show star said he had never shared his record as a war hero before because “I don’t like to boast.”

He said that he only disclosed the episode now because “the way this nation treats our deferment veterans is a disgrace.”

Trump complained that he received no official commendation or medal for his heroism, calling the lack of recognition “shameful.”

“Those brave Americans who, like me, avoided being captured by not serving at all-we are the true heroes,” he said.

Trump’s tale of valor appeared to move many members of his audience, some of whom waited in line after his speech to thank him for his lack of service.

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Now this borders on Kafkaesque...

Evita hits Republicans for being...

... “the party of the past” and tried to portray the extreme comments of one candidate, the businessman and reality TV star, Donald J. Trump, as representative of the entire party.

“There’s nothing funny about the hate he is spewing at immigrants and their families,” Mrs. Clinton said of Mr. Trump who addressed Arkansas Republicans in Hot Springs, Ark. on Friday. But, she added, of the other Republican candidates, “The sad truth is if you look at many of their policies, it can be hard to tell the difference.”

She continued explaining that she:

...denounced comments made by Mr. Trump (who she referred to as the “Republican front-runner”) about Senator John McCain’s war record and she said it was “shameful” how long it has taken other Republican candidates “to start standing up to him.”

Evita, seriously, do not use the word shame because as the number one semantic slut in the race, you are the King.

(The night before, Mr. Trump, speaking at an Arkansas Republican Party convention said the Clintons had “deserted” the state.)

Now what do you think the Trump was doing in Arkansas the other night?

Hmm, maybe lining up potential delegates?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/07/19/hillary-clinton-criticizes-republicans-in-arkansas-homecoming/ <<<< through Drudge, no pay walls

A...

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Dennis Edwall quoted? Trump’s tale of valor appeared to move many members of his audience, some of whom waited in line after his speech to thank him for his lack of service. end quote

That is masterful satire. I agree with Michael that we should study what Trump says and not what the press reports and slants, however I agree with Trump's critics who say he is defaming American prisoners of war, those who did volunteer, and those who were drafted and went off to war. I think there will be further flak from the VFW, other patriotic groups, and veterans in general. His criticism from Republicans is on the mark, and he deserves it.

Take nothing on faith with this guy. Don't assume he is a free market, libertarian capitalist because he may be the opposite. Who knows? Because Trump has no overriding philosophy, one can only piece together various scenarios that would occur if he were to become President. What if he does not like the actions of Mexico, The EU, China or Russia? I think the clear evidence is that he would make nearly any situation worse. He is mean and spiteful even without a few drinks. Do not support this newsworthy guy until you know he is a good person.

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Take nothing on faith with this guy. Don't assume he is a free market, libertarian capitalist because he may be the opposite.

Yeah, do not assume he is one of those free market, libertarian capitalists like the other potential Republican candidates are.

You know like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and George Pitaki,,,

Let's use a non-reality fictional fantasy ruler to measure Trump with and not use it for the others.

Good strategy Peter.

A...

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Gee Mark...I said the same thing about Obama in 2007. Especially when he picked Biden, I laughed out loud. You represent a fringe of a fringe of a fringe. What makes you think you can predict Trumps appeal to a majority of voters?

Well , first of all my good friend , just because you incorrectly did not pick Obama in 2007 what does this have to do with me predicting Trump will not win in 2016 ??? Maybe you should have learned a lesson in 2007 . Now , you can read me here so we don't need to have the same discussion in 8 years from now . What makes me think I am able to predict Trumps appeal ? My knowledge of US politics basically .

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For those who don't know, Marc is a very special friend.

One I would die for.

Michael

Awwww , thanks ! I feel the same ! When Trump opts out I will take you to one of his casinos and give you a G to play the slots !

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

Just for the record , I traded institutional futures , options and stocks for many a year . Did pretty well too but not really the issue . You always short on value because when folks see value - the traders do too , hence its discounted . As an example , personally I would short Apple here all day long on pretty good value . The trend is your friend remark about momentum is one of the real cliche things . I mean do you really believe that folks don't short the top tick and make gazillions doing so ? The real way to make money is exactly that , to short against momentum and but when there is blood in the streets . That was what Baron Rothschild said ( not that he was correct , just saying )

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Gee Mark...I said the same thing about Obama in 2007. Especially when he picked Biden, I laughed out loud. You represent a fringe of a fringe of a fringe. What makes you think you can predict Trumps appeal to a majority of voters?

Well , first of all my good friend , just because you incorrectly did not pick Obama in 2007 what does this have to do with me predicting Trump will not win in 2016 ??? Maybe you should have learned a lesson in 2007 . Now , you can read me here so we don't need to have the same discussion in 8 years from now . What makes me think I am able to predict Trumps appeal ? My knowledge of US politics basically .

We are not good friends.

So, basically... ??? nothing. I give Trump less than 50% chance. To say he has absolutely no chance at all with certainty is perhaps a reasonably safe bet but that's how a pompous blowhard speaks. Especially one from Canada who, if Trump does win the nomination, can say "Look how stupid those Americans are, I thought they were smarter". Definitely pompous blowhard set up material.

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I just want to go on record somewhere ( and what better place than here ) than Trump will not win the Presidency , nor the Republican nomination . Not talking about what I want , or hope to happen - just what will happen . I have been on the site for a few years and don't know if I have ever disagreed with Ol' MSK but I do big time here .

He will make a huge difference in the coming election , either via support for the eventual winner for the nomination or by making such a mess that the Dems win again or by starting the 3rd party and obviously giving the election to the Dems .

He is a deal maker no doubt , I am really curious who he has already made a deal with .

Fair enough. Good political argument.

Cruz has refused to join the chorus and consistently cites the Ronald Reagan Rule.

I would like to see your predictions on the thread I started if you haven't yet.

A...

I was trying to find your thread but cannot seem to locate it , help please ?

If Donald Trump were a stock , I would short the stock at the market open today . I mean like short it with both hands and both feet . Its like one of those stocks that just open up with a huge gap ( usually manipulated ) , and then folks keep buying the stock . Thing is , is usually those stocks come back to fill in the gap .

Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS . The only thing that concerns me is why he is doing this ? Why ?

To really put the nail in the Republicans coffin ? Third party ? Loves Hillary that much ????

Cannot figure this out but POTUS ?

zero chance

Don't short on value, ideology or against momentum. I doubt you actually short stocks with your philosophy for you'd have been wiped out a long time ago.

As for Trump, with his money he can stick around as long as he wants. So far he's not used much of it. I don't think he writes his follow up material. I think he already has people doing that. The follow ups are too nuanced and sophisticated but do a good job off the original. I think next he's going to get better briefed before he opens his mouth, like commenting on what constitutes war-heroism when he was either a war-coward or couldn't be bothered way back then. McCain would have made a terrible, war-mongering President. Having a military background or not can cut both ways depending on the brain doing the cutting. George W. Bush cut the wrong way. His lack of military combat experience--war experience--must have greatly made the invasion of Iraq possible, but not as much as his rock-hard religious beliefs. His father had that experience, so after Kuwait was "liberated," he stopped there.

President Trump would be dangerous, but I'm afraid it's going to be true for whoever is elected, just in different ways, but he's so different that's not much an argument against him. The geo-political boundaries of the world are shifting.

--Brant

Just for the record , I traded institutional futures , options and stocks for many a year . Did pretty well too but not really the issue . You always short on value because when folks see value - the traders do too , hence its discounted . As an example , personally I would short Apple here all day long on pretty good value . The trend is your friend remark about momentum is one of the real cliche things . I mean do you really believe that folks don't short the top tick and make gazillions doing so ? The real way to make money is exactly that , to short against momentum and but when there is blood in the streets . That was what Baron Rothschild said ( not that he was correct , just saying )

Nice. How did you short in actual practice? By borrowing the stock? Put options? Apple's up 2.40 today. It spent a lot of time basing out in the low 120s now it's over 1.32.

--Brant

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Donald Trump is way too smart and he knows that he has zero chance of being POTUS .

Does anyone want to put up a poll for OL commenters and lurkers? It might make the baking of Crow Pie more predictable and sanitary.

If Adam updates his 'early picks' thread for 2016 ballots, we can have a baseline to check against.

How do you like your crow, barbecued, baked, fried or just plain raw?

I have only eaten fresh partridge, shot with a pellet gun. Salt, pepper, wrapped in bacon and baked until it hissed. Mmmmmm. In BC it is legal to kill a crow, but not a raven. Please cook and can before sending it UPS to me or Marc up here in the socialist hellhole. There may be a delay at customs, and they get fussy about food.

I give Trump less than 50% chance. To say he has absolutely no chance at all with certainty is perhaps a reasonably safe bet but that's how a pompous blowhard speaks. Especially one from Canada who, if Trump does win the nomination, can say "Look how stupid those Americans are, I thought they were smarter". Definitely pompous blowhard set up material.

What attaches to guesswork? I mean, if someone making a guess like you, that Trump has only half a chance at the nomination, is this realism or wishful thinking, or evidence of bad cognitive housekeeping? I think it is just a best guess, made in good faith.

I think we are all guessing, and basing our guesstimate assessments on a fairly rational (I hope) set of warrants.

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In BC it is legal to kill a crow, but not a raven. Please cook and can before sending it UPS to me or Marc up here in the socialist hellhole. There may be a delay at customs, and they get fussy about food.

William,

Oh my, this is getting fun.

:smile:

I'll try to set it up so you and Marc eat the crow at the same time. I'll come up to Canada.

I want to bring a camera and video, too.

:smile:

I would say to make it more palatable, we can boil the crow in old shoe soup. But I know me. I'm a softie. I wouldn't want to rub it in that badly.

:smile:

Michael

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William, a guess is a guess. "zero chance" is blowhard material.

In my case, I thought I was very rational when I gave Obama "slim to none" chances. Does it mean I'm irrational the fact that he won twice? Or I haven't studied the spoor enough to know all the variables? People always surprise me both ways, both smarter and dumber than I give them credit for. I mean, always. Sometimes peoples (ordinary people) intuition seems anti-rational, but people seem to intuit the unknown variables and are right.

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