-40C = -40F

[tjohnson]

We could use some global warming right about now - they are forecasting temperatures of -32 C tonight with wind chills of -39.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

GS,

Talk to Gore.

See if he can do something with a law or whatever.

Michael

[Chris Grieb]

Don't invite Al to speak. You seem to almost assured the day of his speech will be the coldest of the year.

[ginny]

Yeah, things in Chicago are as miserably cold as I've ever experienced. WHERE' S THE DAMN GLOBAL WARMING WHEN YOU NEED IT!!

[Selene]

Just to heat up the discussion:

Here is the live chill map for the US.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/uschill.gif

I suggest we do an intervention and force Al Gore into a cryotonics chamber and thaw him out whenever we are tempted to do something exceptionally irrational in the future!

Adam

[BaalChatzaf]

Don't invite Al to speak. You seem to almost assured the day of his speech will be the coldest of the year.

A Gore speech could heat up Pluto. And Pluto is not even a planet.

[tjohnson]

Wow, there's a -50 F value in the US midwest! Not sure what state that is. I once spent a week in -50 C weather (no wind whatsoever) in NWT surveying. We had to leave the trucks running 24/7 and there was an icefog all around the town from the water vapour from everything. I don't think there's much question that the icecaps are melting and CO2 levels are extremely high, but there is still alot of cold air out there.

[BaalChatzaf]

Wow, there's a -50 F value in the US midwest! Not sure what state that is. I once spent a week in -50 C weather (no wind whatsoever) in NWT surveying. We had to leave the trucks running 24/7 and there was an icefog all around the town from the water vapour from everything. I don't think there's much question that the icecaps are melting and CO2 levels are extremely high, but there is still alot of cold air out there.

There is little doubt that average air and water temps are rising. The question is -why-? It is not a forgone conclusion that human activity alone is producing this rise.

Recall that before 1350 C.E., the start of the so-called "little ice age" Greenland was .... well it was green. The amount of CO2 produced by human activity compared to all other sources was trivial. So why was the world so warm then?

The key to earth climate is cloud formation and the generator of heavy cloud cover is in influx of cosmic rays and secondary and tertiary cosmic radiation. More clouds will cool off the earth by cutting down on the inbound solar radiation. When cosmic ray activity is low, cloud cover diminishes and the earth gets warmer.

Cosmic radiation and the ensuing cloud cover is probably responsible for the ice ages which occur cyclically. The sky-is-falling scenario and the infamous "hockey stick" are the results of bad climatic models. Right now there climate science is not that solid. Other factors besides effluence produced by human activity affect climate. Orbital variations, variation in solar output. We are probably in for a cold-spell. The current sunspot activity is the lowest it has been since the Maunder Minimum, the low sunspot activity that preceded "the little ice age". It may be time for Hans Brincker to get his sliver skates out of the closet and skate on the canals of Amsterdam or Rotterdam when they freeze over.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[tjohnson]

We are probably in for a cold-spell. The current sunspot activity is the lowest it has been since the Maunder Minimum, the low sunspot activity that preceded "the little ice age". It may be time for Hans Brincker to get his sliver skates out of the closet and skate on the canals of Amsterdam or Rotterdam when they freeze over.

Ba'al Chatzaf

If we are in for a cold spell why are the icecaps melting, or do you not accept that?

[Selene]

General, SIR!

Can you tell us, over the last 40 years, whether the total global ice has:

a) shrunk

B) remained the same

c) increased

d) none of the above

e) other ______________________________________.

Adam

[Selene]

Michael:

still having that "b" problem since I do not think about it while I type lol

Adam

[BaalChatzaf]

We are probably in for a cold-spell. The current sunspot activity is the lowest it has been since the Maunder Minimum, the low sunspot activity that preceded "the little ice age". It may be time for Hans Brincker to get his sliver skates out of the closet and skate on the canals of Amsterdam or Rotterdam when they freeze over.

Ba'al Chatzaf

If we are in for a cold spell why are the icecaps melting, or do you not accept that?

I have already said that the air and ocean temperatures are increasing. Now, is the increase due to human activity? What proportion is due to human activity and what proportion is nature at work? I pointed out that at one time Greenland had very little ice and this had nothing to do with human activity. A careful analysis of the data shows that CO2 levels trail temperature increases, rather than lead them. In short, there are other places to look for causes. Blaming CO2 produced by humans is a very convenient pretext for controlling economic activity.

Having said all this, I in no way condone unnecessary air pollution? Why? Because I breath the stuff. The advanced industrial nations have gone a long way to cleaning up their act and reducing noxious pollutants. Contrast this with China, whose air is so thick it can be cut with a knife and served for lunch with noodles. The Gore-nicks have not made a good case that human production of CO2 is the main factor. In any case, we shall be getting off our oil diet in the not too distant future. Other sources of energy that do not require combustion of hydrocarbons will come online.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Brant Gaede]

The ice caps aren't melting. We had a spell of arctic ice melting, which is not an icecap, but that appears to be reversing. There may be some kind of underseas' volcanic activity that caused the melting. An increase in Greenland's ice going into icebergs, if true, may be because of more new ice pushing off the old ice. Like stocks, climates fluctuate. "Climate change" is a ridiculous substitute for the unscientific "global warming." Anything to keep the party going dancing around this maypole of a hoax.

--Brant

[tjohnson]

1. I was very careful not say that high levels of CO2 were causing global warming

2. If the air and ocean temperatures are rising how are we in for a cold spell?

3. The ice in Greenland appears to be receding, not being pushed off by ice behind it - big difference

4. Where did you hear the Arctic melting was reversing?

[Selene]

General SIR:

You were careful not to answer the following:

Can you tell us, over the last 40 years, whether the total global ice has:

a) shrunk

cool.gif remained the same

c) increased

d) none of the above

e) other ______________________________________.

Adam

[tjohnson]

General SIR:

You were careful not to answer the following:

Can you tell us, over the last 40 years, whether the total global ice has:

a) shrunk

cool.gif remained the same

c) increased

d) none of the above

e) other ______________________________________.

Adam

Oh master of rhetoric, why don't you just say what's on your mind and save some time and space.

[BaalChatzaf]

We could use some global warming right about now - they are forecasting temperatures of -32 C tonight with wind chills of -39.

Dress warm.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Brant Gaede]

1. I was very careful not say that high levels of CO2 were causing global warming

2. If the air and ocean temperatures are rising how are we in for a cold spell?

3. The ice in Greenland appears to be receding, not being pushed off by ice behind it - big difference

4. Where did you hear the Arctic melting was reversing?

1) I didn't say anything about CO2.

2) Temperatures peaked in 1998. There are serious questions about the integrity of the data from certain stations in any case.

3) Could be.

4) I don't remember off-hand.

If global warming is a true problem there are serious things that might be done having nothing to do with CO2 to ameliorate it. Nothing can be done to stop cooling.

I can't reference this stuff too well if at all out of personal disinterest. I read a lot of things from multiple sources. There is an active thread on SOLOP over 1200 posts long on this subject. I've hardly read it. You could do a little skip reading to get some of the flavor.

In my experience there are two pillars of the green religion: recycling and global warming. The environmentalists want everybody to participate. If the city of Tucson ever incorporates my home into the city limits it's going to have a hell of a time giving me one of those horrible, ugly blue recycling barrels. I could bury it in the back yard and use it to store rainwater off the roof and use it to water a tomato garden. I can't buy a decent tomato. They're only good for batting practice.

--Brant

[galtgulch]

We are probably in for a cold-spell. The current sunspot activity is the lowest it has been since the Maunder Minimum, the low sunspot activity that preceded "the little ice age". It may be time for Hans Brincker to get his sliver skates out of the closet and skate on the canals of Amsterdam or Rotterdam when they freeze over.

Ba'al Chatzaf

If we are in for a cold spell why are the icecaps melting, or do you not accept that?

As I understand it there is a portion of Antarctica which extends up northwards towards South America thus its tip is in warmer climes and has been melting while the entire rest of Antarctica is growing. By focusing on the tiny portion of that sub continent which supports Gore's hypothesis it appears to be valid but there is more to the story.

gulch

[BaalChatzaf]

If the air and ocean temperatures are rising how are we in for a cold spell?

Melting of ice can cause so much fresh water to enter the Atlantic that the halocline gradient, also known as the Atlantic Conveyor will cease to carry the warm Gulf Stream waters northward to the Maritime Provence and to Europe. The result is that melting can cause the East Coast of Canada, Britain and the countries bounded by the North Sea to freeze. This has happened before. Think of Hans Brincker and the Silver Skates.

Climate dynamics are rather complex and non-linear and our so called Climate Science is not well developed. All we have are some models that are fitted ad hoc to data. This approach has been tried before and has failed miserably. During the 1970's the Club of Rome attempted computer models to predict the economic state of the world in the 90's and early 21 st century. They predicted critical oil shortages, gas shortages, shortages of strategic metals. None of them came about. The models were completely wrong. In the same way the current computer models of climate which have left out cosmic ray effects on cloud formation and variances in the orbit and tilt of the earth are producing dubious predictions. Concentrating on CO2 suppression will probably not affect global warming one way or the other but will destroy the economies of the leading industrial nations.

What we need are pathways from the oil and gas based energy economies to the production of more nuclear sources and to use advances in algae technology as the "green" mode of energy development. Algae captures sunlight. Algae is a medium for solar energy and it is much more economical than making ethenol out of corn which is a human food source. That approach is just a subsidy to corporate farms firms.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Ross Barlow]

The title of this thread grabbed me: “-40C = -40F.” So I just had to comment.

Some of you may have read the following experience of mine before, but I think it is still good advice for anyone battling extreme cold. The 1960s and 70s were brutally cold and snowy in the Northeast of the USA. Sub-Zero nights were not unusual and -20F nights were never shocking. Below, I share a hard-won lesson about living with cold.

.

*

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"Minus 40 Degrees" [published on my website/climbing log, linked below]

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(Part 1 of a 3-part saga. Part 2: “The Coldest of Ice Climbs.” Part 3: “Chouinard’s Gully.”)

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My coldest experience in the outdoors was in the Adirondack Mountains of upstate New York in February 1979. I (barely) endured 6 days and nights bivouacking out in temperatures that got down to Minus 40 degrees every night. (-- 40 F = -- 40 C.)

.

It was the week that I went there to ice climb and bivouac. I had picked the week of the Full Moon, of course, for reasons of aesthetics and zen, and also for the practical reason of being able to see my way around.

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Back home on my father's farm in NW Pennsylvania, the pre-dawn temperature was --28*F every day that week. It was -30*F that week in nearby towns. That is as cold as it ever gets in that part of Pennsylvania. My father kept a weather journal from personal observations and from TV and radio news.

.

The coldest spot in the USA (including Alaska) for that entire week was -45*F at Old Forge, NY, in the heart of the Adirondacks. Lake Placid, NY was -35*F. I was bivouacking up in Chapel Pond Pass, sleeping on the frozen pond. I had a good thermometer, but it was too damn cold to be fiddling much with thermometers. I rounded it off to -40*F raw temperature from quick readings. There was a bitterly stiff wind on top of that raw temperature reading, but it was too cold to think about the additional wind-chill calculations. "Desperately Frigid" sums it up.

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I had an excellent integrated sleeping bag system designed by the great American mountaineer Paul Petzoldt: an enormously thick Polarguard suit (parka and pants suitable for extended winter camping, with double insulated booties), and it all fit without constriction both over my wool clothes and also into a companion tailor-fitted Polarguard sleeping bag.

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At supper's finish, I would put a quart of hot water into a water bottle and throw this into the sleeping bag.

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Yet for the first 4 nights, I was extremely cold. I would wake up, shiver for 2 hours, then sleep for 1 hour out of exhaustion. Wake up, shiver 2 hours, sleep 1 hour, etc. On each of these mornings, the water bottle had a quarter of an inch of ice in it. I had to break the ice to drink. That bottle had been *inside* the sleeping bag all night, between my parka and the bag, and it still froze.

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During these nights, as I tossed and turned, shivered and cursed, the lone round Moon ruled the sky and lit up the entire snowy world. Cold silver silence. It was beautiful and severe. No pity from the big orb.

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Silence ruled, until the pond ice beneath me suddenly let up a loud echoing "Crack!!!" sound. This terrified me. I had imaginings of the ice suddenly opening up and swallowing me, trapped inside my mummy bag. But it was just the groans of the ice forming deep below me. The Moon remained silent above it all. It was spooky.

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The last 2 nights were better, yet the temperature and wind-chill were the same. The only adjusted variable was my food intake during the night. During the 4th of my sleepless nights, I had remembered reading advice from the great mountaineer Paul Petzoldt about taking a bag of food into the sleeping bag with you. If you wake up cold, eat.

.

It worked dramatically. I would wake up chilled, and, without waiting for it to get worse, I would sit up (not even opening the mummy bag opening) and feed myself. I had chocolate, cheese, pepperoni, nuts, dried fruit, etc., though I had to chop up the frozen pepperoni and cheese into bite-size chunks with my ice axe prior to bedtime.

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I would eat, but the warmth did not come until about a half hour later. Initially, I felt chilled. It took time to metabolize the food. Then, a cozy glow of warmth spread completely over me, and I fell into a delightful sleep. I would wake up 3 hours later, chilled. I would eat again, like throwing wood on a fire. Again, I experienced a half an hour of chill before the food metabolized and warmed me up. For those last two mornings, there was no ice in the water bottle. My increased body heat prevented it.

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Lesson: food creates warmth. I am a slow learner, but this is one empirical lesson that is high on my certainty scale. (Having extra food in your home or car if you are stranded may save your life.) Paul Petzoldt had written this clearly in his *Wilderness Handbook,* based on his decades of experiences, but I had not taken the lesson to heart until my very bones were shaken with deep chill.

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It was the coldest Moonlight I have ever experienced. The Hobo of Chapel Pond made it through, gaining some wisdom and feeling humble.

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(This saga is continued in Parts 1 and 2.)

[Additional cold weather advice and mistakes of mine can be found on my website under the Index category “a Climbing Log,” and the entry named “The Frostbite Trip,” where I froze my toes three years earlier. I am a slow learner but a sure one.]

.

-Ross Barlow.

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http://zenwind.blogspot.com

Climbing Log, Poems, Reviews, Aesthetic Musings.

(click “Index” links to navigate categories).

[tjohnson]

What we need are pathways from the oil and gas based energy economies to the production of more nuclear sources and to use advances in algae technology as the "green" mode of energy development. Algae captures sunlight. Algae is a medium for solar energy and it is much more economical than making ethenol out of corn which is a human food source. That approach is just a subsidy to corporate farms firms.

I certainly agree there is absolutely no doubt that we have to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels - the world peak production is happening as we speak and so it will only go downhill from here. I think the remaining fossil fuels will be used to reorganize our technology around alternative energy infrastructure.

[tjohnson]

Lesson: food creates warmth. I am a slow learner, but this is one empirical lesson that is high on my certainty scale. (Having extra food in your home or car if you are stranded may save your life.) Paul Petzoldt had written this clearly in his *Wilderness Handbook,* based on his decades of experiences, but I had not taken the lesson to heart until my very bones were shaken with deep chill.

Once while doing mineral exploration I broke through some ice on a beaver pond and went in up to my shoulders. I got out quite quickly and since I wasn't going to meet up with my co-workers for 6 hrs I continued working as fast as I could. It was fairly demanding physical work so I was able to stay warm by moving all the time. I only stopped briefly for a few minutes to eat and my clothes were mostly frozen except around my knees and places where there constant movement. There was a fair bit of steam coming off me and I was actually slowly drying out. Of course, it was only about -10C that day

Edited January 16, 2009 by general semanticist

[Ed Hudgins]

Perhaps we should burn down some rainforests in order to warm up the atmosphere and avoid a new ice age.

[tjohnson]

As I understand it there is a portion of Antarctica which extends up northwards towards South America thus its tip is in warmer climes and has been melting while the entire rest of Antarctica is growing. By focusing on the tiny portion of that sub continent which supports Gore's hypothesis it appears to be valid but there is more to the story.

gulch

I would interested in seeing some articles about that. I can't believe all the scientists studying the Arctic would miss the fact that one side of the Arctic circle is melting while the other side is growing - that would quite embarrassing but it's possible I suppose. Setting aside for the moment the theory that CO2 levels are causing global warming, I am just trying to establish if indeed the planet is warming and most indications that I can find are that it is for some reason.