New Hampshire Republican Primary Predictions Time - 30 candidates...

[Selene]

Time for predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire Republican Primary.

There are 30 Candidates on the Republican primary ballot in New Hampshire tomorrow...here is the sample ballot...

http://www.sos.nh.go...an%20ballot.pdf

All predictions must be posted by 12:01 AM January 9th, 2012.

Please include with your predictions, the estimated turnout that you expect.

200,000; 225,000; 250,000; 275,000; 300;000...or any other number.

[Selene]

N.H. primary pranks: Paul ambushed by 'Vermin Supreme'

"My name is Vermin Supreme; I'm running of the president of America. I stand for mandatory toothbrushing laws," he said, delivering his on-the-fly stump speech. "I'm a friendly fascist, a tyrant you can trust because I know what is best for you. I am on the ballot here in New Hampshire, and you can vote for me. I am Obama's primary primary challenger. I am challenging him and Ron Paul to a debate and an arm-wrestling match, leg-wrestling match and a panty-wrestling match to decide it all — the presidency of the United States."

"What are you, chicken, Ron Paul? Bok, bok, bok, bok, bok," the mock candidate bellowed out at the departing vehicle before playing the music from the "Chicken Dance" through his trusty bullhorn.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/jan/9/primary-pranks-paul-ambushed-vermin-supreme/

[Selene]

Turnout - 285,000

Romney - 36%

Dr. Paul - 2218%

Huntsman - 14 18%

Gingrich - 1316%

Santorum - 13 10%

Perry - 1%

Roemer and the other 25 - 1%

Remember this is an open primary and the first votes will be disclosed from Dixville Notch in Northern New Hampshire just after midnight...Dixville Notch is an unincorporated village, with a population of approximately 75, in the Dixville township of Coos County, New Hampshire, USA. The town is known for being one of the first places to declare its results during United States presidential elections and the New Hampshire primary.^[1] It is located in the far north of the state, approximately 20 miles (32 km) from Canada.

Here is an interesting tidbit with a poem by Eugene McCarthy that even mentions Goody Two Shoes' father Georgey Porgie Romney:

The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was one of the crucial events in the politics of that landmark year in United States history.

Senator Eugene McCarthy

began his campaign with a poem that he wrote in imitation of the poet

Robert Lowell

, "Are you running with me Jesus":

I'm not matching my stride

With Billy Graham's by the Clyde

I'm not going for distance

With the Senator's persistence

I'm not trying to win a race

even at George Romney's pace.

I'm an existential runner,

Indifferent to space

I'm running here in place ...

Are you with me Jesus?

[11]

In November 1967, McCarthy declared, "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" to gauge the country's response and conduct a candidacy for the presidency of the United States by entering the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

[Peter]

Adam, I cannot locate any turnout predictions so that is unknown to me, and frankly Scarlet, I don’t give a damn.

From Rasmussen on New Hampshire on January 8^th:

Romney earns 37% support, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul a distant second with 17% of the vote in the latest telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters taken Sunday night. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is now in third with 15%, Gingrich at 12, Santorum with 11, and Perry at 1.

A local N.H. TV station poll done today has Romney at 41 percent and Gingrich at only 8.

South Carolina on January 21^st as of 1/5 to 1/7:

Romney 27, Santorum 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 11, Perry 5, Huntsman 2

The only up to date poll in Florida which is on January 31^st is from Quinnipiac a few days ago:

Romney 36, Gingrich 24, Santorum 16, Paul 10, Perry 5, Huntsman 2

I am surprised Paul is doing so poorly in South Carolina and Florida. Perry and Huntsman should give up, and go home, after South Carolina which could improve Paul’s results the most though the “Not Romney Votes” of Gingrich and Santorum would also benefit. If Mr. Newt or Santorum were to drop out before South Carolina it could be a two way race of Mitt and Newt, or Mitt and Rick, and Paul would always be unelectable nationally at third place.

So the evidence before our eyes tells us that Governor Mitt Romney will win the first four contests, which will make him secure. The anti-capitalist, class warfare statements from Santorum and Gingrich concerning Mitt’s actions when he was with Bain Capital are not resonating with me, Ron Paul, The Tea Party, or Rush Limbaugh. They sound like Democrats.

Yet their flack could knock a couple of points off Mitt but I will still bet high on my man Mitt and predict in New Hampshire:

Romney 41%, Ron Paul 19%, Jon Huntsman 16%, Gingrich and Santorum tied at 11, and Perry at 2

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

Peter:

Turnouts are critical determinants of outcomes. All polling organizations make certain assumptions based on expected turnouts. For example, in Iowa this year the turnout exceeded 2008 which was a surprise.

I made my predictions that I posted on OL based on 118,000 which was below the 2008 turnout. I had another prediction based on a turnout above the 2008 turnout of 120,000. As it "turned out," the Iowa turnout was above 2008 which made a difference in outcomes.

The New Hampshire Board of Elections is predicting a "heavy" turnout in this open primary of 325,000 which would surprise me.

Adam

[Peter]

Adam wrote:

Turnouts are critical determinants . . .

end quote

“Madmen,” Adam, no they are not, You are SO sixties. How they vote is the critical determinant. It is 9:21pm and Romney is a bit below my prediction but I have the order in order. For now. I am no Nostradamus. Romney won the Republican vote. Ronmney won the Republican vote. Mitt won the . . . Adam, take your enthusiasm to South Carolina. Send your favorite candidate some talking points. Like this.

Congratulations President Romney.

Seriously consider playing the theme to the movie “Popeye” by Harry Nillson at your rallies in the background. It is called “Sweet, Sweet Haven,” and while some of the lyrics are a tiny bit sardonic, it is beautiful. Listen to it and make up your own mind – it is worth the effort.

“Sweet, sweet haven,

God must love us . . .”

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

[Peter]

I had Romney 41%, Ron Paul 19%, Jon Huntsman 16%, Gingrich and Santorum tied at 11, and Perry at 2

Results from The Guardian versus me

The results had Romney at 39.4 me at 41 plus 1.6

Ron Paul 22.8 me at 19 minus 3.8

Jon Huntsman 16.8 me at 16 minus .8

Newt Gingrich 9.4 me at 11.plus 1.6

Rick Santorum 9.3 me at 11 plus 1.7

Rick Perry 0.7 me at 2 plus 1.3

Karl Rove and Nostradamus move over. They kept saying Ron Paul would do better in the college towns and they were right. Perry should drop out.

I am still slightly worried that Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate. Then Romney would ‘sorta havta’ pick his son Rand Paul as his running mate. Maybe that is the plan. “Sorry to disappoint my followers, but there can only be one Paul in the race, and that is my son, the next Vice President of the United States, Rand Paul !!!”

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

[blackhorse]

It looks as though Bush III will be the GOP nominee. #&*%!!!!! Oh well, better him than ObaMAO.

[Selene]

It looks as though Bush III will be the GOP nominee. #&*%!!!!! Oh well, better him than ObaMAO.

Still a long way to go...Reagan stopped Ford in North Carolina, and became the nominee, after losing all the prior primaries.

[blackhorse]

True. I remain somewhat positive that Perry will pull out a hat trick in SC. I was right about Santorum in Iowa...

[Reidy]

#9 does not compute. Reagan and Ford faced off in the primaries in 1976, and Ford ended up with the nomination.

[Selene]

#9 does not compute. Reagan and Ford faced off in the primaries in 1976, and Ford ended up with the nomination.

Pete:

You are correct, my error.

Main article: Republican Party presidential primaries, 1976

Gerald Ford had become Vice President after the resignation of Vice President Spiro Agnew. Upon the resignation of President Richard Nixon following the Watergate Scandal, Ford became the first President never elected President or Vice-President. This status plus Ford's pardon of Nixon caused politicians in both major parties to view Ford as vulnerable. Ronald Reagan led the conservative wing of the party in condemning Ford's foreign policy in Vietnam, Eastern Europe and Panama. Ford held a lead from the beginning until the North Carolina primary where he was upset by Reagan. Reagan then put together a string of victories that put him back in the race. Ford bounced back in his native Michigan. From there a close battle in the remaining states led to a convention in which Ford held the lead but not the necessary majority. Reagan gambled by announcing he would choose a moderate running mate, alienating conservatives. Ford narrowly won on the first ballot.