BaalChatzaf Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Look at this snipped I got from the Manchester Guardian:An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck L'Aquila in central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people.The court in L'Aquila sentenced the defendants to six years in prison. Each is a member of the country's Grand Commission on High Risks.......Hast du in sein ganzen leb gesehen?Ba'al Chatzaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Campbell Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just read yesterday (in a book titled Science Left Behind) about the prosecution of these 7 scientists as an indication that European attitudes toward science are bad and getting worse.Now they've been convicted...Robert Campbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syrakusos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Reported on CBS, the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian (UK), and even Al-Kazeera. It is a fundamental fact of probability that any statistical statement is a likelihood. You have one chance in 5,000 of dying from an accident with a bicycle. (National Safety Council tables here.) That is not a talisman against its happening, but a prediction that it will ... one time in five thousand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck L'Aquila in central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people.They gave false assurance. It is one thing to fail to predict an earthquake. It is another thing to assure people that there will be no earthquake.If I fail to warn you that the ice on the lake is too thin and skating on it is not safe, that is one thing. If I tell you that the ice is thick enough that there is no danger, that is another thing. In the latter case, you probably would hold me at least partly responsible if you fall thru the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Reported on CBS, the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian (UK), and even Al-Kazeera.It is a fundamental fact of probability that any statistical statement is a likelihood. You have one chance in 5,000 of dying from an accident with a bicycle. (National Safety Council tables here.) That is not a talisman against its happening, but a prediction that it will ... one time in five thousand.See Chebyschev's theorem.Ba'al Chatzaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck L'Aquila in central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people.They gave false assurance. It is one thing to fail to predict an earthquake. It is another thing to assure people that there will be no earthquake.If I fail to warn you that the ice on the lake is too thin and skating on it is not safe, that is one thing. If I tell you that the ice is thick enough that there is no danger, that is another thing. In the latter case, you probably would hold me at least partly responsible if you fall thru the ice.Very good Jerry...the law of contributory negligence operates there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck L'Aquila in central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people.They gave false assurance. It is one thing to fail to predict an earthquake. It is another thing to assure people that there will be no earthquake.Not so. This from the Guardian article:According to Nature, the minutes show that "at no point did any of the scientists say that there was 'no danger' of a big quake", and volcanologist Franco Barberi gave the following, accurate summary: "There is no reason to believe that a swarm of minor events is a sure predictor of a major shock."------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------See the article in Nature at: http://www.nature.co...ll/465992a.htmlNature is a reputable magazine and is a journal of reference.When Mt Vesuvius is ready to blow its top the scientists will say --- No Comment --- just to protect their backside.Ba'al Chatzaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthony Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's kinda unsurprising to me that this should happen in as strongly a Catholic country as isItaly. It's a mindset: the simple switch from religious Revelation ('received certainty'), toscientific Revelation (same 'received certainty'.)False prophets, those seven scientists. In another era they'd have been burned at the stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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