william.scherk

I've followed Russia hand Julia Ioffe for a long time. Here she sat for almost an hour's interview with the PBS crew putting together their "Putin's Road to War."

She is a thorough-going Trump cynic, but discusses Trump's policy stances and relationship with Putin without rancour --  and is able to give the penetrating analysis that broad scope, deep knowledge and long-term research allow. If you just want a sample, start at 30 minutes. This is about what Putin sees in America, in what measure was what he saw in American division/paralysis a factor in risking the Ukraine operation now.

Although Kremlinology surely has its odd aspects -- eg, spiritualism or mind-reading, wishcasting, partyism or institute-itis -- Ioffe's 'Inside the Mind' readings seem to rest on firmer footings. "What do you think is going on in that guy's mentality that explains this decision-tree?"

If Ioffe is on the money, among the take-home truths are that Putin got shitty intelligence about what awaited the special operation forces, in terms of Ukrainian resolve and readiness, and in terms of actual Russian strength and weakness. 

"The bad news somehow didn't make it to the top." 
"Putin is the moderating voice in that camp." I paraphrase.

-- for a more speculative 'The Psy-Op that Failed' observation, analysis and argument this one stood out for me, in a Twitter thread by Kamil Galeev as far back as February 28: