The 2020 Presidential Election Tournament

[william.scherk]

On 11/2/2020 at 1:04 PM, william.scherk said:

On 10/31/2020 at 5:37 PM, william.scherk said:

 

 

I project Trump will win Florida and Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio, and that one of these four states will not be called by any Decision Desk before midnight Eastern.

Florida, bam.  Florida red, baby.

Added: not ready to project a winner in Pennsylvania, with 12-15% in right now, but am going to bite the bullet with Bannon and assume Ohio is in the bag for the President and called by bedtime.

Edited November 4, 2020 by william.scherk
Update to postpone the call

[Dglgmut]

Looks like Texas will be red after all.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here's an especially smug and sanctimonious progressive, Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks. He's been gloating a lot about how Biden is going to smoke Trump.

Now the cognitive dissonance is settling in.

Shades of 2016...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I'm going to sleep.

I stopped watching Fox news for coverage a few hours ago. They were calling states based on their frigging exit polls. Man, did they suck tonight.

I went through several online broadcasts. The best I found was Steve Bannon's War Room.

I can't get over Fox and the big suck.

God were they awful.

And me? What did I see? That's easy. President Trump got reelected and is going to be confirmed soon. But it's going to be a fist fight because now some serious cheating is going to kick in.

Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham got reelected. The Republicans seem to be holding the Senate pretty well as of right now. One flip against and one flip for, which makes it even so far.

Fox triumphantly announced the House was going to stay Democrat, but I don't know. From the number of mistakes Fox made, it is wiser to wait and see.

Michael

[Peter]

I did not like the Fox Network much tonight though I though Brett was good,  and I strayed to Fox Business occasionally and even the amature (sp?) CBS network. It's 1:44am it is still too close to call. But Biden is inching closer to 270.  What will a Commie Harris presidency be like, America? PA, MI, WI, NV, NC, GA, etc., are too close to call. Trump will be making a tweet later.

Biden spoke earlier, and it sounded like a "Am I really the President?" speech.  His wife, Jill Biden seemed to be in charge of getting him off the stage.     

[Ellen Stuttle]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

It's 1:44am it is still too close to call. But Biden is inching closer to 270. 

It's Trump's win.  Biden isn't going to inch to 270.  Trump will have 300 when the states which are going red finish being counted. (Edit: 303.  I'd forgotten to include Alaska.)

Type "2020 election results" into Goggle search to see the picture.

(Edit again:  Confidence too soon.  Trump could lose if a high percentage of the uncounted votes in the remaining swing states are from the big cities.  Tense.) 

Ellen

[Dglgmut]

If the electoral map stays the way it is now, Trump still lost AZ and WI compared to 2016.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

This is going to be a fist fight like the impeachment was.

I am certain President Trump is going to win in the end, but a string of sudden caches of votes from nowhere is going to be so full of dirty tricks, it's going to be a constant irritation.

I expect this election to end something like the Kavanaugh hearings.

The best thing anyone can say about President Trump is that he never gives up. He has bested a massive amount of cheating so far, and this is going to be one more episode.

Once this is settled, I hope he does some serious voting reform.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I've been looking around at several place, and even though I'm not a numbers junkie, it seems like the only way for Biden to win is if 4 out of every 5 uncounted votes, including mail-in, go to him. Otherwise, numerically it is impossible for Biden to win. The odds of that happening are too remote to consider without a huge cloud of fraud hanging over it.

All the rest is smoke and mirrors.

But there's a crap-load of smoke and a crap-load of mirrors out there.

Including upcoming riots.

So hold on to your clothes. A hard wind is coming.

But President Trump will got the job done.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

The best framing of today's situation I have seen so far goes something like this.

President Trump won the election last night. Now he has to stop the attempt to steal it.

Michael

[Ellen Stuttle]

2 hours ago, Dglgmut said:

If the electoral map stays the way it is now, Trump still lost AZ and WI compared to 2016.

What's the deal with Arizona?  I don’t understand it, people in that gun-friendly state being opposed to Trump.  Is it that they don’t want the wall?

Any insight, anyone?

Ellen

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I'm putting this here as a morale booster.

Patrick Howley has been a big pain the ass to cheater all during President Trump's first term. He nails the cheaters hard.

He is saying he feels great about President Trump's numbers and the mounting evidence of legal improprieties by the Democrat side. And he is loading up for court battles.

One of the colorful things the Dems did in Arizona is to have the polling places distribute Sharpies to fill in ballots, but then claim that only ballots filled in with ball-point pens will be counted.

Patrick says he has all this on video from different parts of the state.

Also, a video of an elementary school teacher distributing ballots to school-children.

There are going to be some interesting court cases coming.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

8 minutes ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

What's the deal with Arizona?

Ellen,

Maybe this?

The Trump staff is still expecting to win Arizona by 30,000 or more

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

11 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

One of the colorful things the Dems did in Arizona is to have the polling places distribute Sharpies to fill in ballots, but then claim that only ballots filled in with ball-point pens will be counted.

Patrick says he has all this on video from different parts of the state.

No sooner said than this appeared in the news (abc15).

Sharpies on ballots cause concern for some voters in Arizona

Quote

Several voters have expressed concern that the marker used to fill out their ballots may have caused them difficulty voting in this year's election.

ABC15 received several messages on Election Day and into Wednesday that many polling places offered Sharpies to those voting in person. However, there were reports that some Sharpie-filled ballots were not counted, while others who used ballpoint pen had no issues.

It's going to be a long couple of weeks or more swatting these flies as they appear.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Can you believe this?

A media wildfire over a typo? 

Yeah, right.

These errors have two characteristics so far.

1. They always happen in a form where President Trump can be damaged.

2. They get fixed when the exposure gets so high, the situation itself invites further scrutiny from more serious sources.

There are many errors with these characteristics that have happened and are happening.

What a coincidence, huh?

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Recount in Wisconsin coming.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Also, looks like Susan Collins got reelected in Maine. I read that Sara Gideon called her to concede.

A middle of the road Repub, but still a Repub.

And I don't think she's part of the anti-Trump swamp.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Here we go.

Michael

[Ellen Stuttle]

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Here we go.

Michael

I've been feeling sick thinking that Philadelphia could be the key city that flips the race to Biden.

Philadelphia, the birthplace of the nation:

(Wiki link)

Quote

The United States Declaration of Independence (formally The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America) is the pronouncement adopted by the Second Continental Congress meeting in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on July 4, 1776. 

Also called "the city of brotherly love."

Here's an article about the name from "The Encyclopedia of Greater Philadelphia." (I've only glanced at the article so far.)

—-

For a number of years, when Larry was going to graduate school at Temple and I was working at Lippincott's NYC trade division offices, I often spent weekends in Philadelphia.  (Sometimes Larry would come to NYC for the weekend if there was an event we wanted to attend.)

After I started to freelance, I moved to Philadelphia, where Larry and I got a large apartment in a building complex which was lovely then (Alden Park - it's subsequently deteriorated).

Philadelphia had become a corrupt city by then.  I was glad when Larry got a tenure-track position at the University of Hartford and we left Philadelphia. 

Still, it sickens me to think that the city where the Declaration of Independence was signed is now key to Trump's possible defeat.

Go after the cheating Philly bastards, Rudy!

Ellen

[william.scherk]

On 11/3/2020 at 10:03 AM, william.scherk said:

On 11/2/2020 at 1:04 PM, william.scherk said:

 

Yesterday's projections for Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio match exactly to what Steven Bannon had to say on Fox Business today. 

 

Steve Bannon forecast Arizona as a Trump "hold," which seems at the moment to be a miscalculation, given that at least one 'decision desk' (AP) has projected Biden to win. The most conservative desk at DDHQ has not moved Arizona into projected-win status yet.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

After the shock of seeing what happened yesterday, I got a little miffed at myself.

Why on earth did I believe the bad guys would go quietly into an acceptance of defeat when the opportunity of an election was right in front of them? They have been cheating ever since they sensed President Trump was a threat, so what made me think they wouldn't pull out all stops to the extremities of their talents to cheat in the big one?

And once I came to that realization, it allowed me to take a new look at things.

This is going to sound a bit like Candide, but I think President Trump and the country won a huge victory last night. I mean it.

 

1. About winning the different states. The people calling which states were won so far are mostly news organizations, not the powers that be. And we all know news organizations lie their assess off. Just look at how they were quick to tally Biden wins while slow-walking Trump wins. The reason for this is to get people used to the idea that Trump is behind in the total number of electoral college votes. But in reality he isn't.

 

2. I think last night's voting broke the left. I mean that, too. As Rush Limbaugh said, they needed a repudiation of Trump, not a close race. Without that repudiation, their story lines (Trump is the source of all evil) fall apart and that will be devastating in governing and in future elections.

 

3. Parallel to that, the Republicans kept the Senate and gained House seats, thus weakening Pelosi (and man is the AOC crowd going to feast on her). That's not much of a repudiation, is it?

 

4. Rush himself says President Trump will win both Pennsylvania and Arkansas in the end. This is not wishful thinking because Rush never does that. When the situation is dire, he says so. But in this case, he talked with certainty. No wonder. The numbers are in Trump's favor, the Dems are getting caught cheating and/or making self-serving mistakes over and over, and President Trump has some of the best lawyers in the USA, nay, in the world on his side. Also, from what I understand, he has the law on his side, too, since the Dems tried to change the rules at the last minute.

 

5. Then I thought about, what if the Biden people pull it off? Where will the Trump crowd go? Will they just disappear?

I don't believe that. Does anyone? Heh.  

I would hate to see Biden and his people take power, but Trump was an effect, not a cause. He was the catalyst that brought a social organism into existence and showed the members what American liberty looked like in the 21st Century, not in the abstract, but in deeds. That organism now lives as a culture of its own. I don't see Biden or the people controlling him governing that organism with abuse like the Dems normally do. And I certainly don't see the never-Trump crowd being taken seriously by these Patriots ever again.

 

6. But I don't want to go on about that since I sincerely believe Trump's got this. Look at the story-pattern of his entire political career. The bad guys attack, there are skirmishes, there is a point where all looks hopeless, and then Trump triumphs. How many things need to be mentioned? Access Hollywood, the 2106 election itself, the Mueller investigation, the Impeachment, even getting COVID-19 himself. 

Why should this election be any different?

So I became calm after that. We're in a bigger story than just one event and we are at the Dark Night of the Soul plot point in it. How many times have we been here? So let the story run.

People far more skilled than I are motivated to the gills and charging forth to keep this election honest. I voted and have given my voice to to supporting Trump (and this social organism I mentioned) over years. At this particular juncture, there is very little I can do that will have an effect worth talking about, so I will just keep doing my things and waiting for the master litigators to finish their things. They will win.

And then my turn to do stuff will come back around since there will still be a crapload of stuff to do to help this social organism of good people live and flourish.

 

I'm still going to report election stuff and write because that's what I am doing, but I'm not longer worried.

Life is good.

 

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

3 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

Go after the cheating Philly bastards, Rudy!

Ellen,

OK.

Sorry it's a video, but I think you will love it. The images are not anything other than Rudy talking and others listening, so if you just want to hear the sound, you will not miss anything important.

The gist is Rudy is suing them over the legitimacy of the mail in ballots they counted and what it means to observe counting those ballots. These boneheads in Pennsylvania (and in other places like Arkansas, Michigan, etc.) think allowing Republican observers to observe ballot counting means keeping them at a distance of 20 feet or more (if I got that detail right). At that distance, it is impossible for the observer to observe whether any ballot is legitimate, whether it has a postmark, whether it is signed, etc.

And he is going to run this particular case straight through the system and open a federal case about it.

That's just for starters. I have a feeling Rudy has not even warmed up.

Rudy is magnificent.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Another good guy won.

Devin Nunes won reelection.

Michael

[Ellen Stuttle]

43 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Ellen,

OK.

[….]

Rudy is magnificent.

 

Thanks for the link.  If you haven’t done so already, I recommend looking at the Twitter thread.  Some heavy hitters posting there with pertinent figures.

For instance, this remark by Dinesh D'Souza and retweeted by DJT, Jr:

" What is the statistical probability that out of 100,000+ votes counted after hours, all of them go to one candidate? #Election2020"

Ellen

 

[KorbenDallas]

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

5. Then I thought about, what if the Biden people pull it off? Where will the Trump crowd go? Will they just disappear?

I don't believe that. Does anyone? Heh.  

I would hate to see Biden and his people take power, but Trump was an effect, not a cause. He was the catalyst that brought a social organism into existence and showed the members what American liberty looked like in the 21st Century, not in the abstract, but in deeds. That organism now lives as a culture of its own. I don't see Biden or the people controlling him governing that organism with abuse like the Dems normally do. And I certainly don't see the never-Trump crowd being taken seriously by these Patriots ever again.

Well I just read this article:

"Trump 2024: If President Loses, Most Republicans Back Another Shot—Poll"
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-2024-president-loses-republicans-run-again-poll-1544786

Two key takeaways from the article, 1) If Trump loses he can run in 2024 and 2) Bannon was quoted in the article saying if Trump loses in 2020 he fully expects him to run in 2024.  As I type this, it isn't looking good for Trump.  If he holds GA, NC, PA then he'll need Nevada or Arizona; Arizona a state that the Trump folks are predicting a 30k vote win once all votes have been counted.  I have my doubts because Arizona is expecting about 550k+ votes to come in and many of them are in Maricopa County, which is a dem county.  The Trump folks say over 50% of those votes coming in are from registered republicans.  At this point, who knows?  But one important thing that came to mind is how Trump fundamentally changed the GOP, and it will be changed for years to come.  Before I read the article I thought it would be strange to see Pence trying to run on Trump's platform.  Trump coming back in 2024, a mad, angry, determined, loud, Trump version 2.0 would create more of a scene than he did in 2016.  And to be honest, I'm not sure if I'd want to see that.  But there are currently still a lot of votes to be counted.