Coronavirus

[Jon Letendre]

79.1% lower death rate in countries employing widespread early HCQ use.

Early treatment with hydroxychloroquine: a country-randomized controlled trial ^*

Covid Analysis, August 5, 2020 (updated August 8, 2020)

@CovidAnalysis  

 

 

Many countries either adopted or declined early treatment with HCQ, forming a large country-randomized controlled trial with 2.0 billion people in the treatment group and 663 million in the control group. As of August 8, 2020, an average of 39.6/million in the treatment group have died, and 443.7/million in the control group, relative risk 0.089. After adjustments, treatment and control deaths become 82.0/million and 637.0/million, relative risk 0.13. Confounding factors affect this estimate, including varying degrees of spread between countries. Accounting for predicted changes in spread, we estimate a relative risk of 0.21. The treatment group has a 79.1% lower death rate. We examined diabetes, obesity, hypertension, life expectancy, population density, urbanization, testing level, and intervention level, which do not account for the effect observed.

https://hcqtrial.com/

[anthony]

On 8/7/2020 at 6:49 AM, Peter said:

Here is another reason for teachers to be leery about going back to school with even partially filled classrooms. Most kids don’t get sick but they can pass it on to others and their families. Peter

“The New York Times:” Even Asymptomatic People Carry the Coronavirus in High Amounts by Apoorva Mandavilli 4 hrs ago . . . . Of all the coronavirus’s qualities, perhaps the most surprising has been that seemingly healthy people can spread it to others. This trait has made the virus difficult to contain, and continues to challenge efforts to identify and isolate infected people . . . .  A new study in South Korea, published Thursday in JAMA Internal Medicine, offers more definitive proof that people without symptoms carry just as much virus in their nose, throat and lungs as those with symptoms, and for almost as long . . . . Discussions about asymptomatic spread have been dogged by confusion about people who are “pre-symptomatic” — meaning they eventually become visibly ill — versus the truly asymptomatic, who appear healthy throughout the course of their infection. The new study is among the first to clearly distinguish between these two groups.

Peter, All depends upon the teachers. (And every adult in any field). Those who consider themselves at higher risk or under their docs' advisement, with weak immune systems, would we'd assume, choose to stay away and should lay low. Until a vaccine were produced. That children can be asymptomatic transmitters is in fact the good news. First, that their and all healthy adults' chances of death are minute. Second, that Covid is (predictably) turning out to be actually more widespread than the 'test and trace' method could initially establish. When the statistical dust will finally settle, the rate of mortality to cases will be shown to be ¬much¬ lower than initially predicted - and dramatically publicized. That the virus is "difficult to contain", like every virus, should have been the prime driver of the epidemiologists' methodology instead of the draconian controls we have seen. Most have been inept, at the very least, perhaps self-serving or politically motivated, also. The analogy merjet and I pursued: if one drives a car with bad brakes, tires, suspension, etc. and has poor eyesight and reactions - it is he alone who should stay off the roads for his own good. Everyone else must not be disallowed from driving and the acceptable risks that accompany road use . To penalize the vast majority - because of that scary, stigmatized, altruistic insinuation, "transmissibility"- from getting on with living active lives, amounts to a sacrifice of the able-bodied and their choices to others on a scale, and in incalculable ways, we won't see the end of.

[Peter]

4 hours ago, anthony said:

choose to stay away and should lay low. Until a vaccine were produced.

Well said. Here in the United States a hepatitis vaccine is mandatorily given at birth, and that is followed by mandatory polio, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, mumps, etc.  If a vaccine is developed for Covid-19 does anyone think it should ONLY be given voluntarily? Peter   

From Wikipedia. Typhoid Mary. Early life. Mary Mallon was born in 1869 in Cookstown, County Tyrone, in what is now Northern Ireland. Presumably, she was born with typhoid because her mother was infected during pregnancy. At the age of 15, she migrated to the United States.^[5][7] She lived with her aunt and uncle for a time and worked as a maid, but eventually became a cook for affluent families.

Career From 1900 to 1907, Mallon worked as a cook in the New York City area for eight families, seven of which contracted typhoid. In 1900, she worked in Mamaroneck, New York, where within two weeks of her employment, residents developed typhoid fever. In 1901, she moved to Manhattan, where members of the family for whom she worked developed fevers and diarrhea, and the laundress died. Mallon then went to work for a lawyer and left after seven of the eight people in that household became ill.

 In June 1904, she was hired by a prosperous lawyer, Henry Gilsey. Within a week, the laundress was infected with typhoid, and soon four of the seven servants were ill. No members of Gilsey's family were infected, because they resided separately, and the servants lived in their own house. The investigator Dr. R. L. Wilson concluded that the laundress had caused the outbreak, but he failed to prove it. Immediately after the outbreak began, Mallon left and moved to Tuxedo Park,^[14] where she was hired by George Kessler. Two weeks later, the laundress in his household was infected and taken to St. Joseph's Regional Medical Center, where her case of typhoid was the first in a long time.  In August 1906, Mallon took a position in Oyster Bay on Long Island with the family of a wealthy New York banker, Charles Henry Warren. Mallon went along with the Warrens when they rented a house in Oyster Bay for the summer of 1906. From August 27 to September 3, six of the 11 people in the family came down with typhoid fever. The disease at that time was "unusual" in Oyster Bay, according to three medical doctors who practiced there. The landlord, understanding that it would be impossible to rent a house with the reputation of typhoid, hired several independent experts to find the source of infection. They took water samples from pipes, faucets, toilets, and the cesspool, all of which were negative for typhoid.

. . . . First quarantine (1907–1910) Soper notified the New York City Health Department, whose investigators realized that Mallon was a typhoid carrier. Under sections 1169 and 1170 of the Greater New York Charter, Mallon was arrested as a public health threat. She was forced into an ambulance by five policemen and Dr. Josephine Baker, who at some point had to sit on Mallon to restrain her. Mallon was transported to the Willard Parker Hospital, where she was restrained and forced to give samples. For four days, she wasn't even allowed to get up and use the bathroom on her own. The massive amounts of typhoid bacteria that were discovered in her stool samples indicated that the infection center was in her gallbladder. Under questioning, Mallon admitted that she almost never washed her hands. This was not unusual at the time; the germ theory of disease still was not fully accepted.

[anthony]

Yes for "voluntarily": http://click.messages.webmd.com/?qs=a12869d9d5f8da25b88582f9c3162cbdeb09e924b21ac35e5bd4e3d90ecdfa8c2643eb693ef5ff020180a534c2f4e7e5d91bfae6b6ddf2fe6d022c56bbdd86c0

[Peter]

I have been dithering about what I will do. But if the trials are successful I will get the vaccine when my doctor advises it. Too many people talk about their coronavirus experience and say, "I thought I was going to die." I remember getting the flu shot only after I was infected and felt miserable for about a week or more. So, I don't want to feel even worse with covid.   

[ThatGuy]

44 minutes ago, Peter said:

I have been dithering about what I will do. But if the trials are successful I will get the vaccine when my doctor advises it. Too many people talk about their coronavirus experience and say, "I thought I was going to die." I remember getting the flu shot only after I was infected and felt miserable for about a week or more. So, I don't want to feel even worse with covid.   

That's fine. I'll take the HCQ.

[merjet]

MSK wrote: "Brant, Damn you. Too often you manage to say in a sentence or two what it takes me paragraphs and paragraphs to say" (link).

On 8/8/2020 at 2:34 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Merlin,

I don't want to go into the merits of whether Fauci said this or that ...

I will summarize in a few sentences what took you paragraphs and paragraphs to say. You find fault with the messenger, e.g. citing the CDC or WHO or CNN. You believe that entitles you to dismiss the entire message as propaganda, falsehoods, and garbage. That’s despite any facts or merits in the message. You even cite a fact and then concoct a slur. You don’t have enough interest to discern what is relevant and objective from what isn’t. It’s so much easier and convenient for you to trash the entire message and the messenger. At the same time, you exempt Dr. Simone Gold’s message from any of your “analysis” and slurring her.

[merjet]

On 8/8/2020 at 2:16 PM, Jon Letendre said:

No Shit, Sherlock Holmes! Did she say otherwise?

Yes, Professor Moriarty, she did. Her tweet grossly misrepresented reality by omitting pertinent, important facts.

[merjet]

On 8/8/2020 at 3:28 PM, Jon Letendre said:

79.1% lower death rate in countries employing widespread early HCQ use.  ... https://hcqtrial.com/

Some obviously knowledgeable people created the document at hcqtrials.com. However, “knowledgeable” does not mean honest or trustworthy. Lying and misrepresenting with lots of statistics and a very complex model is easy to do.

It will be interesting to see if Rush Limbaugh does a show about the alleged massive study, or not. He has a slew of researchers and money to check it out before he pontificates. He has touted HCQ several times.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

44 minutes ago, merjet said:

You find fault with the messenger, e.g. citing the CDC or WHO or CNN.

Merlin,

Of course I do.

They are proven liars.

Do you need a list of their lies, or are you already aware of their lies?

Why on earth do you find them credible?

45 minutes ago, merjet said:

You believe that entitles you to dismiss the entire message as propaganda, falsehoods, and garbage.

This is horseshit.

That entitles me to dismiss anything coming from those liars as propaganda, falsehoods, and garbage. Why? Because when I rely on them, I have to guess what is true and what is false.

This is kinda obvious, no?

Let me put it clearly in case this is difficult for you to understand.

I don't listen to liars because they lie.

Frankly, neither should you. But that's your choice. I've made mine.

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

Liar, liar! Pants on fire!

--Brant

I only lie while lying down

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

18 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

Liar, liar! Pants on fire!

Brant,

That's right.

See? You know how to think.

Hell, you even think in rhyme.

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

That was little girl talk from my childhood.

--Brant

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

51 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

That was little girl talk from my childhood.

Brant,

See?

You even learned young.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

5 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

I don't listen to liars because they lie.

Ha!

I think it's dawning on the Ruling Class Elitist Establishment Defense Crew that I actually mean this.

Find other sources and experts, guys.

I don't give a fuck about the ones you bow to.

I'm not alone, either.

And we all vote.

Michael

[Jon Letendre]

But Michael, some people are a certain way and liars do not turn them off. Liars are not "them" to them. They see generous liars as practicing normal exchange of ideas. They won't be offended until the liars damage them personally.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

3 hours ago, Jon Letendre said:

But Michael, some people are a certain way and liars do not turn them off. Liars are not "them" to them. They see generous liars as practicing normal exchange of ideas. They won't be offended until the liars damage them personally.

Jon,

It's tough trying to explain my state of mind re the credibility of the liars to people who are emotionally wedded to the Ruling Class Establishment institutions.

They want to keep talking about these institutions and people as if there were something serious to gain from it. To me, it's like trying to tell them I don't find anything the spirit cooking lady says about, say, Ayn Rand's fiction credible to people who do, and who regularly consume art made with semen, blood and honey.

If they want to consume that art, that's their business. But I want nothing to do with it and have very little interest in the spirit cooking lady's views on anything.

The WHO, CNN and so on are like the spirit cooking lady to me.

Michael

[Jon Letendre]

I’m sure that having had the right colds providing immunity to Covid can be adequately explained by reference to how very different they are from one another.

“It’s conceivable that the T cells that you’ve made in response a couple of years ago — three, four, five years ago — when you were exposed to a relatively benign coronavirus that causes the common cold, could actually hang around, and when you’re exposed to the SARS-Coronavirus-2, could have some degree of protection.”

https://bgr.com/2020/08/11/coronavirus-immunity-common-cold-t-cell-fauci-interview-5863206/#

[merjet]

21 hours ago, Jon Letendre said:

I’m sure that having had the right colds providing immunity to Covid can be adequately explained by reference to how very different they are from one another.

Cocksure gibberish.

[Jon Letendre]

2 hours ago, merjet said:

Cocksure gibberish.

Get back to your Snopes and CNN, idiot.

[merjet]

20 minutes ago, Jon Letendre said:

Get back to your Snopes and CNN, idiot.

Get back to the fake news and conspiracy theories you embrace so much, moron.  

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

LOL...

Today President Trump announced the peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates he helped broker.

Then he asked Mnuchin what was an easier negotiation, peace in the Middle East or arriving at a deal with the Democrats on coronavirus relief? Then he said the Middle East was more reasonable than the Dems...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Finally Scott Adams will STOP defending Bill Gates.

Damn that took a long time...

For someone who knows as much about persuasion as Scott does, it's weird to see his sporadic blindness to blatant propaganda and the immoral manipulations of elitist ruling class assholes.

EDIT: Cernovich is right behind.

Michael

[Jon Letendre]

5 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

his sporadic blindness to blatant propaganda

Him actually being their guy would explain sporadic blindness to their blatant propaganda.

[ThatGuy]

6 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Finally Scott Adams will STOP defending Bill Gates.

Damn that took a long time...

For someone who knows as much about persuasion as Scott does, it's weird to see his sporadic blindness to blatant propaganda and the immoral manipulations of elitist ruling class assholes.

EDIT: Cernovich is right behind.

Michael

What's the over/under on Yaron Brook/ARI going down with the Bill Gate ship? They've been shillin' for him pretty heavily and steadily...