Florida Primary January 31st.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I predict Sarah Palin will do another last minute endorsement of Newt (for Florida only) like she did in SC. And I excpect several other heavyweights will, too. Just to thumb their noses at the big Republican manipulation machine.

Just like I said.

It ain't about Newt. It's about the machine.

Look at these videos that just came out on Real Clear Politics (sorry, they don't embed, so you have to use the link):

Sarah Palin: "Rage Against The Machine, Vote For Newt"

Herman Cain Endorses Newt Gingrich For President

The power players think the Tea Party is going to go away. It isn't.

Especially with the sleaze the Romney campaign is throwing around. It's too in-your-face dishonest. Even people who hate Newt are now defending him. You want to ask, isn't it kind of a no-brainer to be hamhanded without being sleazy? Hell, anyone with gobs of cash can do that.

What the hell's wrong with Romney?

Newt ain't really Tea Party material, but he's the closest thing with the best shot that's available. And he knows he's getting in bed with the Devil with these folks if he doesn't perform generally in the Tea Party policy direction.

But I honestly think he doesn't mind and will perform (to a point) because he likes the Tea Party agenda. Maybe not his first choice, but I sense he actually likes it to some degree.

Michael

[9thdoctor]

Prediction: no matter which corrupt plutocrat or religious zealot the GOP selects as Presidential candidate, the GOP will be defeated. Obama will be inaugurated for a second term.

Because of this Palestinian business? I don’t think that’s enough to tip any scales, and Obama hasn’t been such a friend to Israel so the delta favors the Republican, at least the way I see it (meaning, more Jews likely to vote Republican, outnumbering those who switch to Democrat out of sympathy with Palestinians). Romney’s statement pretty well reflects mainstream views, I’m surprised you take such strong exception to it. Gingrich is being utterly foul here, but he showed his colors back during the Ground Zero Mosque debate, so at least it isn’t news.

[Selene]

Folks:

This Florida Republican primary is exposing a serious fault in both the Republican party and the electoral process in general.

For example, Connie Mack, a sitting Republican Congressman, you know one of the slimy Congressmen who have not dealt with a simple bill to make it a criminal act for Congressional and Senatorial members to make money on insider information, and he is running for Senator in the Republican primary, is "stalking Newt Gingrich" campaign events on behalf of Romney!

“I don’t have concern because I think Mitt Romney is the right guy, and I think it’s our responsibility to stand up for who we think is the right person. I’ve never been one who sits on the sidelines.”

But as he floats high in early Senate primary polls, Mack’s GOP rivals see his aggressive involvement on behalf of Romney as an opening — and insist it’s proof the congressman is establishment-oriented, aloof and even erratic.

Former Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.) said he doesn’t begrudge Mack for choosing a side but thinks his in-your-face approach might be unprecedented.

“I’ve never seen anything like it. He’s stalking Newt Gingrich and heckling him at events. That’s not something you see from a sitting congressman. I think it’s odd and erratic,” said LeMieux, who has not endorsed a presidential candidate. “For somebody who doesn’t spend a lot of time in Florida to begin with and then parachutes in … I think that’s strange behavior.”

Read more: http://www.politico....l#ixzz1kwyALAF8

Adam

[blackhorse]

Florida is going to be a tough fight. But thanks to the internet and modern multimedia technology and information exchange (which has come a long way even since 2007 when Obama was running) people can't be BS'd like they used to. I can see Newt emerging as the victor, because the electorate is able to know Romney's RINO GOP establisment credentials.

[blackhorse]

Without the net I wouldn't have access to crucial info like this. I am sure that in the days before our information age Romney would have been presumed the candidate already. But thank my deist god that information and knowledge are at our fingertips.

http://dailycaller.c...vidual-mandate/

[Selene]

Without the net I wouldn't have access to crucial info like this. I am sure that in the days before our information age Romney would have been presumed the candidate already. But thank my deist god that information and knowledge are at our fingertips.

http://dailycaller.c...vidual-mandate/

Excellent article:

I have recommended this type of high deductible option with an overlying catastrophic policy for three decades. This also applies to homeowners insurance and auto insurance.

However, the interference and collusion of "State Insurance Departments" are perfect examples of centralized corruption. Their dicta influence your contracts with a leased car, or, a financed car where you are not "permitted" to self-insure with a thousand or two thousand dollar deductible. Your are restricted to a "maximum" deductible of $500 dollars on comprehensive and collision coverage, e.g., in the State of New York.

This of course drives up those rates up to 20% higher.

Ridiculous intrusion into the way a free and open market should function.

Adam

[Selene]

Apparently the early voting in Florida was approximately 600,000 and it went 55% to 45% for Romney [this is the split of the combination of the folks who voted early for those two (2) candidates].

This does not bode well for Mr. Newt.

Any predictions should be in by 12:00 midnight tonight to be fair.

Adam

[Peter]

Adam wrote:

Apparently the early voting in Florida was approximately 600,000 and it went 55% to 45% for Romney [this is the split of the combination of the folks who voted early for those two (2) candidates}.

end quote

The latest Tea Party spin is to count all the “Not Mitt” votes and think of them as a voting block. That does put a rogue perspective to it. If Romney wins by getting 40 percent or less all the time, that means 60 percent will vote for someone other than the frontrunner, Mitt. He will still be accumulating delegates but will lack the majority to win, which leaves the convention open to Newt, or Rick, or Ron, or someone like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan who are not actively running. The problem to that idea is the winner take all states like Florida, but even then, delegates have been known to switch allegiance, sometimes illegally. So, the Fat Lady isn't even warming up yet.

Peter

[blackhorse]

Romney will win Florida. I expect him to be the eventual GOP candidate. I am fine with it, to be honest. Obama must be defeated.

[Selene]

This is depressing and optimistic:

Romney 40%

Mr. Newt 32%

Santorum 18%

Dr. Paul 10%

And it could be a lot worse.

Adam

[Selene]

Of the 2,000,000 + expected turnout in today's Republican Primary, 650,000 had early voted.

Florida has 6,796 precincts in two (2) timezones - fascinating political state

[9thdoctor]

Dr. Paul 10%

I did my part, count me in that 10%. Gary Johnson was on the ballot, so I did think of voting for him instead, but in the end I bubbled in the oval next to Ron Paul. It's a winner take all state, so yes, the gesture was futile. But I like to think that it’s what Herbert would have done.

[Selene]

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY January 31, 2012

Closed primary: 50 total delegates* (reduced from 99 delegates due to RNC penalty)

Winning candidate receives all 50 Florida delegates.

Candidate

Status

Delegate total

Barack Obama Awarded all delegates

Democratic candidate President Barack Obama is running uncontested in this race, and is expected to receive all delegates.**

Race

Status

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Del*

Est. % In

Florida

Updated 7:32 p.m. EST, Jan 31, 2012

County:

Table | Map

Romney

474,876

48%

0

49%

reporting

Gingrich

302,107

31%

0

Santorum

126,777

13%

0

Paul

67,826

7%

0

Republican Results by County----Romney running at 60% in Palm Beach County! 64% in Miami-Dade County! 64% in Collier!

[Selene]

Romney wins Florida big and convincingly....

Race

Status

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Del*

Est. % In

Florida

Updated 8:08 p.m. EST, Jan 31, 2012

County:

Table | Map

Exit Poll

Romney

588,063

47%

50

62%

reporting

Gingrich

387,860

31%

0

Santorum

162,307

13%

0

Paul

84,984

7%

0

Full Florida Republican Exit Poll »

Vote by Gender

Vote by Age

51% 49% 6% 15% 43% 36% Men Women 18-29 30-44 45-64 65 and Older

[Selene]

Next stop Nevada February 2nd, 2012.

Delegate count:

http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

[Mark]

PayPal founder Peter Thiel gives $900,000 to Ron Paul PAC

[Reidy]

The story further corroborates my impression that these people have very bad political judgement, as does this.

[Selene]

Folks:

The real story in this Florida primary is that the turnout was significantly lower than the 2008 turnout.

Attributing the cause and what effect that it will have on this critical state for the 2012 election is now a hot discussion in the political community.

Adam

[James Heaps-Nelson]

Folks:

The real story in this Florida primary is that the turnout was significantly lower than the 2008 turnout.

Attributing the cause and what effect that it will have on this critical state for the 2012 election is now a hot discussion in the political community.

Adam

My guess is that in 2008 seniors saw McCain as a candidate they could rally behind. Also, the negative ads probably turned some people off.

Jim

[Mark]

The story further corroborates my impression that these people have very bad political judgement, as does this.

That Reidy thinks Theil's .9 M donation to Ron Paul showed bad political judgement corroborates my impression that Reidy does not like Ron Paul, LOL.

Ron Paul may not be an Objectivist paragon but he's the best statesman to come down the pike in my lifetime. I'd like to see him win but whatever, the more delegates he garners the better.

RT interview with Mary Willison

[Selene]

Excellent spokesperson. Sharp, well spoken and attractive.

These are the people who Jack Welch warns the Republican Party not to alienate. As the ex CEO of GE and a person who understands how to lead, he brings good ideas to light for the idiots in the Republican Party.

Despite calling for Dr. Paul to drop out of the race, he also calls for the Republican Party to incorporate him, his message and his followers into the party.

“You know, Ron Paul’s followers are not party regulars. He’s not a party regular. He really has these very, very impassioned followers. All four of our children are huge Ron Paul followers,” Suzy, [his wife] acknowledged. “So we’re living with this.”

This is another conundrum for a Party headed for the shoals of stupidity.

I do not think that the Republican Party's "establishment" has a clue as to how to handle the Tea Party, Dr. Paul's troops, or, the Conservatives and their troops.

This is a re-run, structurally, of the Goldwater and Reagan uprisings.

Adam

[James Heaps-Nelson]

Excellent spokesperson. Sharp, well spoken and attractive.

These are the people who Jack Welch warns the Republican Party not to alienate. As the ex CEO of GE and a person who understands how to lead, he brings good ideas to light for the idiots in the Republican Party.

Despite calling for Dr. Paul to drop out of the race, he also calls for the Republican Party to incorporate him, his message and his followers into the party.

“You know, Ron Paul’s followers are not party regulars. He’s not a party regular. He really has these very, very impassioned followers. All four of our children are huge Ron Paul followers,” Suzy, [his wife] acknowledged. “So we’re living with this.”

This is another conundrum for a Party headed for the shoals of stupidity.

I do not think that the Republican Party's "establishment" has a clue as to how to handle the Tea Party, Dr. Paul's troops, or, the Conservatives and their troops.

This is a re-run, structurally, of the Goldwater and Reagan uprisings.

Adam

I think young people supporting Ron Paul is a combination of the lack of seriousness of major party candidates on the debt which will disproportionately affect them and the fact that many of them have friends or know people coming back from the interminable wars or multiple deployments. They know our young soldiers have gotten the shaft, just like Vietnam.

Jim

[Selene]

Excellent spokesperson. Sharp, well spoken and attractive.

These are the people who Jack Welch warns the Republican Party not to alienate. As the ex CEO of GE and a person who understands how to lead, he brings good ideas to light for the idiots in the Republican Party.

Despite calling for Dr. Paul to drop out of the race, he also calls for the Republican Party to incorporate him, his message and his followers into the party.

“You know, Ron Paul’s followers are not party regulars. He’s not a party regular. He really has these very, very impassioned followers. All four of our children are huge Ron Paul followers,” Suzy, [his wife] acknowledged. “So we’re living with this.”

This is another conundrum for a Party headed for the shoals of stupidity.

I do not think that the Republican Party's "establishment" has a clue as to how to handle the Tea Party, Dr. Paul's troops, or, the Conservatives and their troops.

This is a re-run, structurally, of the Goldwater and Reagan uprisings.

Adam

I think young people supporting Ron Paul is a combination of the lack of seriousness of major party candidates on the debt which will disproportionately affect them and the fact that many of them have friends or know people coming back from the interminable wars or multiple deployments. They know our young soldiers have gotten the shaft, just like Vietnam.

Jim

Absolutely a critical factor Jim.

Additionally, their information flow is not from the stationary "old" media of TV/Newspapers etc. This social network interconnectivity is McLuhan on steroids .

Adam

[Peter]

Mark wrote:

Ron Paul may not be an Objectivist paragon but he's the best statesman to come down the pike in my lifetime. I'd like to see him win but whatever, the more delegates he garners the better.

end quote

I don’t disagree with that and I speculate neither would Peter Reidy, and if he is not disinterested he will speak for himself.

Flaw one. Ron Paul is not elect-able at this time, but he is setting the stage for the next candidate worthy of a Tea Party. I know, I know, polls are like those damn lying statistics but I believe that they are correct. Ron Paul is unelectable at this time.

Flaw two. He does not deal well with the world as is now configured as concerns homeland security or foreign policy.

Those are fatal Objectivist flaws. On the bright side he had a son named Rand, born in a manger.

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor