Scott Adams has couched a #Midterms non-prediction in non-specific persuasive terms.  It's a good look:

Testing out my Election Eve Live whoopee later today. Ignore.

He used to be with 538, now with boo hiss CNN.  The man with the salary is not afraid to put his marker down. If you want to see what Harry has magicked up for your particular district, you can simply type in your address information.

Where I realize all my prognostications go wrong is that the variables can't really be guessed, at least some of them. Of registered voters, registered to a party, of independents, above or below 2016 turnout, among which demographic bands a 'surge,' of 'hidden' intents to vote that are not picked up by most polling, of 'get out the vote' drives, of early-voting-by-party-registration, of this district being like that, of the 2014 model, of historical statistical regularities.

I am going to go down with the HA Goodman ship, cheered on by I hope Scott Adams, with three guesses about 'we should've expected this' ...

• Republican voters are energized almost to the level of 2016, maybe more
• Democratic voters are energized in distinct patterns 
• The House results will be surprising.

I won't get a job with QAnon's Qollective until I work some more on being Ultra-Cryptic.

Here I invoke the Ghost of Adam Selene and will add in a grille of guesses on actual races, just the House. That will go up the morning of November 6.

What Democratic hopes will be dashed and how hard? -- as the President devotes the remaining days to turnout.

As part of my #Midterms preparation, I will have a sneak preview tonight, with live material from tonight's rally in Fort Myers' Florida: [Deleted video link. No live broadcast save at this moment]

Meanwhile, Trump blasts Ryan: Focus on the midterms, not birthright citizenship

Quote

President Trump lashed out at House Speaker Paul Ryan on Twitter Wednesday afternoon, saying Ryan should focus "on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship."

"Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border!"
— President Trump on Twitter

The backdrop: Following Axios' reporting that Trump plans to sign an executive order to end birthright citizenship, Ryan told WVLK that Trump "cannot end birthright citizenship with an executive order." Ryan was visiting vulnerable Republican Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky when he made the comment.

Ya gotta love "Lashing Out." That term has been spooking political reporting since the dawn of time ... here's Paul Ryan 'differing' with the President, followed by the item from the Axios interview that he disagrees with, as quoted by some loser at NPR:

I speculate that President Trump knows full well that removing the 'rights' of birth in the USA is not as easy as he pretends. In any case, his assertions will provide a key pole for discussion among Americans. This may be a very popular idea for which a constitutional amendment could pass given time ...

I also suspect that discussion would not be one-sided here at Objectivist Living.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/unmarked-mailers-seek-to-secretly-kneecap-gop-turnout

Who done it? Who sent the sneaky illegal mailers to interfere in the election?

Was it...

...muh, muh...

The best of the sound checks. I feel almost prepared (I forgot about the 'advanced audio mixer in OBS); please subscribe, as they say:

Finally, a merely bad live broadcast. This time I actually had a viewer or two. Please leave nasty comments at the page indicated ...

Is the thumbnail not showing? Gnash, gnash ... in this one I have Q's latest and greatest, along with Jordan Sather's commentary, and a lot of catch-up on other people's #Midterms predictions. 

GOTV!

Best yet. QAnon and Jordan's intense gullibility, Styx, HA Goodman, Bill Mitchell and more: PREVIEW November 6 pre-show testing https://t.co/2ZqYmHWFgE via @YouTube

— William Scott Scherk (@wsscherk) November 3, 2018

On the Front Porch, an OL regular seeks a finding:

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

MSK, I'm wondering what the policy is here at OL regarding foreigners' attempts to interfere in our elections. There are Canadians here who are very actively trying to influence American voters' opinions. Now, I don't know how you feel, but, personally, I'm in favor of free speech, no matter where it comes from, and I don't buy into the left's long, tired struggle to get us to believe that Hillary lost due to Muh Russians posting a few lame political memes or cartoons on social media. But, what you or I think is relevant. The only thing that is relevant is what Muh Canucks think versus how they behave, no? Shouldn't OL take them up on what they advocate, and impose on them what they've been demanding? If these hosers love the Muh Russians thing, and have been pushing the idea that we should be terrified of foreign electronic interlopers, and that we have to stop them at all costs, shouldn't OL grant them their wishes? No more advocating against foreign political meddling while they are actively engaged in foreign political meddling?

Muh, muh poutine!

J

HA Goodman is pumping out the #Midterms predictions, pretty much unchanged since May of this year.  Here is a wee extract from this video:

"GOP KEEPS CONTROL OF HOUSE, SENATE #MIDTERMS POLLS HAVE SYSTEMIC BIAS TOWARDS DEMOCRATS AGAINST GOP."

HA may be quite right, and so his live feed will be an amazing party of celebration. On the other side of things, HA predicts a terrible blame game. Listen in and see if this cuts life at the bone ...

He doesn't mention the Canuckistani Mau-Maus, but hey.  As Pierre Elliott Trudeau once said, "Être votre voisin, c'est comme dormir avec un éléphant; quelque douce et placide que soit la bête, on subit chacun de ses mouvements et de ses grognements."

What are Muh Canucks goals?  What means of election interference have they used in addition to their infiltration of OL? Is the FBI investigating? Is Mueller on top of it? It's happening right in front of our eyes, and Muh Canucks have shown themselves to be much more active and prolific than Muh Russians ever were, and by far. Muh Canucks are just churning out the meddling materials. They're creating rivers of of it. What is to be done to save us?

[also cross-posteed to initial thread]

J

"Shouldn't OL take them up on what they advocate, and impose on them what they've been demanding?"

Yes, dammit. Name and shame, sisters and brothers. Names, details, advocacy quotes, demands. Give no quarter to the fiends and their secretive cult. Expose their ugly efforts to The Light!

#Midterms

On 10/30/2018 at 3:01 PM, william.scherk said:

If you want to see what Harry has magicked up for your particular district, you can simply type in your address information. [https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/forecast]

Some districts of interest to OL members and onlookers ... the links take you to Harry's very particular forecasts (example at bottom). I'll be watching these to see if they depart from expectations. As far as I can tell, the incumbent is favoured in each race.  If there are any other races folks want me to add, just let me know here or by a note backstage.

One other source for hard-core wonks watching the election from the very first returns in Kentucky. The Hill has a page to help orient wonk-ish folks. Here's a sample:

Quote

[...] For a solid hour on Tuesday, all eyes will be trained on Lexington, Ky., and its suburbs, where Rep. Andy Barr (R) is running for reelection against retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath (D).

That’s because Kentucky closes its polling places at 6 p.m. local time — and Barr’s 6th District is the only competitive race based entirely within the Eastern time zone.

Here’s an hour-by-hour look at how Election Day will unfold, and what to watch as the polls close.

6 p.m. Eastern — The Canary in Coal Country

Barr represents a district that voted for President Trump by a 15-point margin in 2016 — but it’s a seat with Democratic roots, one long held by former Rep. Ben Chandler (D). If McGrath pulls off an early upset, Republicans are going to have a very bad night. But if Barr hangs on, as polling indicates, the GOP’s House majority is still in play.

7 p.m. — The First Hints

Six states close their polling places at 7 p.m., from liberal Vermont to conservative South Carolina, and the rest of Kentucky.

Vote-counting will begin in two of the hottest races in the country: Georgia’s gubernatorial race, a fierce battle between Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), and Indiana’s Senate race, where Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) faces former state Rep. Mike Braun (R).

If Donnelly loses quickly, it would auger poorly for other red state Democratic senators. But if he prevails, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) may find reason for optimism.

In Virginia, voters in the Richmond suburbs and Norfolk will reveal some of the first hints of the size of the Democratic advantage in the House. GOP Reps. Scott Taylor and Dave Brat have tough fights on their hands, and a Democrat is even making a run at outgoing Rep. Tom Garrett’s (R) seat. If Democrats take two of those, the Republican majority is probably gone.

7:30 p.m. — A Blue Moon and a Blue Dog

Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia at this time. [...]

"Excitements ...  and Grievances."

The link to the Early and Absentee Voting Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgRzmhXLW6YEHQdhQkpSES3lbsVbRLkz2ZCv2Jh5tf0/edit#gid=1996929977

17 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Some districts of interest to OL members and onlookers ... the links take you to Harry's very particular forecasts (example at bottom). I'll be watching these to see if they depart from expectations. As far as I can tell, the incumbent is favoured in each race.  If there are any other races folks want me to add, just let me know here or by a note backstage.

Incumbent
	Democrat	Republican
IL-9	Jan Schakowsky	John Elleson
CA-36	Kimberlin Brown Pelzer	Raul Ruiz
LA-1	Lee Ann Dugas	Steve Scalise
MN-2	Angie Craig	Jason Lewis
CT-1	John Larson	Jennifer Nye
FL-3	Yvonne Hayes Hinson	Ted Yoho
FL-16	David Shapiro	Vern Buchanan
TN-5	Jim Cooper	Jody Ball
SC-3	Mary Geren	Jeff Duncan

 

Have you heard that Angie Craig is PISSED? Yeah. She's super snarly PISSED! That's her campaign message. It's because people are going to die because Republicans want to take everything away from everyone else, and also because her opponent wants to reestablish slavery. That's the Narrative with which she's leading slightly in the polls.

(The slavery thing dates back to a complex discussion on rights that her opponent, Jason Lewis, had while he was a radio host. The issue wasn't actually slavery, but the powers of the various levels of government - local versus state versus federal - and the potential hazards of advocating solutions at an inappropriate level. The discussion was more about stimulating questions and conversation than proselytizing, something like a college course discussion group or debate. Well, snippets of his old shows have been stripped of all of that context by Craig and her supporters, and used in an attempt to try to make Lewis look like a supporter of slavery, or at least not an opponent of it. During Lewis's first run against Craig, she tried the exact same thing, and her allegations were fact-checked and proven to be false, including, surprisingly, by the leftist StarTribune. That didn't stop her and her supporters from dragging them out again for this run, and this time the national fake news media got involved and lapped it up, cuz like Craig, they're PISSED!)

20 hours ago, william.scherk said:

"Shouldn't OL take them up on what they advocate, and impose on them what they've been demanding?"

Yes, dammit. Name and shame, sisters and brothers. Names, details, advocacy quotes, demands...

 

Huh??? Since when are details relevant? We don't need no steenking proof. The accusation alone is enough. Guilty. Muh Canucks done it.

J

This exchange will be part of the first 'sound check' of the day. I will experiment to see if I can actually place the live test within this post. The entry below is not yet set, so I lock this thread for one hour ... or so.

[This should be the link for the live stream: https://www.youtube.com/user/daemonesk/live ]

All your questions answered in the 11 AM show:

Our final forecasts are up (!). Nothing really changed.

The Deluxe version of our House model gives Democrats a 6 in 7 chance of winning the House and the GOP a 1 in 7 chance. Median outcome = D+36 seats. The 80 percentile range runs from D+20 to D+54. https://t.co/auwMtDPO6C pic.twitter.com/MB04CZZCmv

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2018

1 hour ago, william.scherk said:

Where does Nate Silver say 'nobody really knows,' or words to that effect?

William,

Does video with the words coming out of his mouth (to that effect)--on CNN at that--work for you?

Michael

http://wsscherk.hostingmyself.com/VIDEOCASTS/A19KF/MuhJonathanMuhMSKmuhNateSilver.htm

On 8/31/2018 at 8:57 AM, william.scherk said:

I am revising my prognostications for the mid-terms. I think it is just as likely that the Republicans hold the House as that the Democrats may take it.

With California totals still in some races to be counted, due to their system counting ballots returned by mail ... my "just as likely" prognosis was born out.

On 10/30/2018 at 3:01 PM, william.scherk said:

I am going to go down with the HA Goodman ship, cheered on by I hope Scott Adams, with three guesses about 'we should've expected this' ...

• Republican voters are energized almost to the level of 2016, maybe more
• Democratic voters are energized in distinct patterns 
• The House results will be surprising.

The "energized" electorate made history in terms of raw numbers.  Over a hundred and ten million votes cast, a record for a midterm, I believe.

On 11/5/2018 at 11:37 AM, william.scherk said:

I'll be watching these [races of interest to OLers] to see if they depart from expectations. As far as I can tell, the incumbent is favoured in each race. [...]

[Updated here with a check by the winners]

Incumbent
	Democrat	Republican
IL-9	Jan Schakowsky	John Elleson
CA-36	Kimberlin Brown Pelzer	Raul Ruiz
LA-1	Lee Ann Dugas	Steve Scalise
MN-2	Angie Craig	Jason Lewis
CT-1	John Larson	Jennifer Nye
FL-3	Yvonne Hayes Hinson	Ted Yoho
FL-16	David Shapiro	Vern Buchanan
TN-5	Jim Cooper	Jody Ball
SC-3	Mary Geren	Jeff Duncan

  

Four surprises that weren't really surprises, looking back at the most recent polls.  Still, gotta be disappointing for some people.

The fun is being had among the QAnon contingent.  The story being peddled by the cultists is that the Democratic majority returned by the electorate will NOT be seated come January.  Why?  Well, because, er, secret trials, Gitmo, whoopee yeehaw. Or something.

Eg,

On the other hand, some faithful QAnon followers are having a hard time accepting the evidence of their senses, right or wrong.

Yikes.

But wait -- there's more. See if you can get your head around this kind of disappointment. As one wag said, "The Great Disappointment for Internet Sociopaths."  Ye Eleetz at OL will catch the historical reference ...

If the pictures don't show through in these embeds, I will upload some screen captures.

Of interest to Jon Letendre. Or not.

The view from Moscow (RT or Russia Today) with Mark Sloboda, Lionel 'Nation' (notable QAnon fanatic), Brian Joyce, and a regular on the Jimmy Dore Show, Ron Placone. Hold onto your hair, the Hot Takes tempest is a-roaring.

'Lionel on RT's CrossTalk: The Psycho MSM Blew #Midterms But They're Just Too Stupid to Realize It'

On 11/7/2018 at 10:06 AM, william.scherk said:

On 8/31/2018 at 8:57 AM, william.scherk said:

I am revising my prognostications for the mid-terms. I think it is just as likely that the Republicans hold the House as that the Democrats may take it.

With California totals still in some races to be counted, due to their system counting ballots returned by mail ... my "just as likely" prognosis was born out.

The longtime Orange County Republican (CA-48) Dana Rohrabacher has officially been defeated. 

#Russia's state TV host Vladimir Soloviev (Russian Hannity, with close ties/access to Vladimir Putin) bemoans Dana Rohrabacher's loss in the #Midterms2018: "There was one lawmaker very sympathetic to Russia, he lost re-election—Rohrabacher... He was excellent, he was for us." pic.twitter.com/sSCjhTm7Rm

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) November 9, 2018

So, how is the final tally of House representative elections shaping up?

According to the 'live' results posted at 270towin.com, there are eight races not yet certified (or called by the networks).

The outgoing House:

The current state of affairs:

Each of the remaining seats to be called:

My earlier predictions about 2018 turnout (excitement, enthusiasm) turned out to be mostly right. The final numbers of votes tabulated will be well over 115 million, I expect. I'll post the final tally here when it is all decided.