There are times when I miss the Objectivist Living stalwart "Adam Selene." I am definitely going to miss his wonkish, passionate opinions on the coming mid-terms. I put this blog entry up to have a place for OLers who are interested in tracking the campaigns, the shoddy and unconvincing polls, and the final night of returns. With the disbanding of President Trump's "voter fraud" commission** we will have no executive guidance on where or how various states are vulnerable to rigging or other hinkiness.
In among the news-hoopla today, a few reports that stand out. This from The Week: A record-breaking 31 House Republicans won't seek re-election in 2018
A whopping 31 House Republicans will not be seeking re-election in November, NPR reports, including Rep. Darrell Issa (Calif.), who announced his impending retirement from Congress on Wednesday. The 2018 GOP exodus is a new record: The last time there was such a massive departure from Congress was when 28 Democrats left in 1994, and Republicans subsequently seized control.
Most significantly, Republicans in states won by Hillary Clinton are leaving in droves. "Vulnerable House Republicans would clearly rather call it quits than stand for re-election with a deeply unpopular agenda hanging over their heads," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Tyler Law told NPR.
Democrats would need to flip 24 seats to take back the House, with the Senate being more of a long shot; in the upper chamber, Democrats have to defend 25 seats and pick up an additional three in order to take back the majority. A Washington Post/ABC News poll from November found that hypothetical Democratic candidates are favored by voters against their Republican counterparts 51 percent to 40 percent.
One of my favourite election handicapping sites is Decision Desk HQ, a relatively-nonpartisan group of wonks and dweebs. Their DDHQ 2018 House Midterm Forecast is a good place to come up to speed on the challenges and excitement ahead.
The 2018 House Midterm Election is bound to be one of the more interesting in recent memory. With Donald Trump in the White House, infighting on both sides of Congress, and an American public that is bursting at the seams we have a recipe for a perfect political storm. Keep your eye on this page, which houses our forecasts for all 435 congressional districts, and stick with us as we attempt to answer the ultimate questions: who will win majority control of the US House of Representatives?
an image from that page:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/data/forecast-2018/leafletmap/index.html [Guy keeps 'fixing' his blog layout. He now works for the Economist]
Click on the
image above to go to the fully interactive version of this image, where you can zoom in and examine each race's details and present-day forecasts. Eg,
-- another very good site is Ballotpedia. Here is a link to their comprehensive 2018 elections page.
** a welter of reports on the controversial commission and its end can be accessed here. Click the following for a snapshot ...
About 12,600 results (0.38 seconds)
CNN-Jan. 3, 2018
"He's a lightning rod," the official said. A source close to Pence said chairing the commission "wasn't something that (Pence) asked for," but that the vice president has a "workman-like attitude" about these things, and so he took on the job. The source said Trump wanted Kobach involved in the commission ...
The American Prospect-Jan. 9, 2018
The Kobach Commission was a perfectly emblematic enterprise of the Trump administration from day one. It had all the characteristics of the administration itself: a distorted understanding of American elections girded by a supreme lack of facts, an agenda born of resentment and conspiracy theories, ...
The Hill-Dec. 31, 2017
“Much of the past few months has been spent by commission staff answering discovery requests for information and drafting affidavits and things that like — going through the legwork of litigation, and that takes time,” Kobach said, according to The Topeka Capital-Journal. "We have a very small staff in ...
CNN-Dec. 24, 2017
The commission is led by Vice President Mike Pence and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. It has come under sustained criticism since its inception, as has Trump for claiming without evidence that widespread voter fraud occurred in last year's presidential election and cost him the popular vote.
Topeka Capital Journal-Dec. 30, 2017
FILE - In this Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2017 file photo, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, right, introduces one of the speakers at a meeting of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity in Manchester, N.H. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, center, and former Ohio Secretary of ...
Newsmax-Jan. 2, 2018
President Donald Trump's beleaguered election fraud commission plans to meet this month after getting delayed for months by eight lawsuits, commission head and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach says. In an interview with the Topeka Capitol-Journal, Kobach said the commission's "very small staff" ...
Governing-3 hours ago
The responsibility will shift from the commission, which was co-chaired by Vice President Mike Pence and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, to the Department of Homeland Security. Moving the hunt to agencies can end up being "an even better path forward" than the commission approach, suggests ...
Ottawa Citizen-Jan. 4, 2018
“The Democrats, both on and off the commission, made very clear that they were not interested in determining the scope and extent of voter fraud and, indeed, they were trying to stop the commission in its tracks,” Kobach said. “The Democrats lost their opportunity, lost their seat at the table, by stonewalling.”.
Bristol Herald Courier (press release) (blog)-Jan. 9, 2018
(AP) — A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security says Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach is not advising the agency on election fraud issues ... Kobach was the commission's vice chairman. ... He told The Star on Monday that Kobach was not advising the agency formally or informally.
Lawrence Journal World-Jan. 8, 2018
The commission's vice chairman, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, didn't immediately return messages seeking comment. Trump convened the commissionin May to investigate the 2016 presidential election after making unsubstantiated claims that between 3 million and 5 million illegally cast ballots ...
Prediction: surprise surprise!