Nate Sliver predicts Clinton win. probability = 0.81

[Peter]

Do Canadians eat scrapple with their pancakes? I like Rapa and Hugh's brands best.

Peter  

[Peter]

I can't believe I was so down on Tuesday morning. Can Trump affect The Fed and rate raises now? Another good pre inauguration head fake could be to bring in our allies and trade partners on some issues then let that simmer. Trump does not need to make any overtures to the RINO"s or our enemies.

Peter  

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

11 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

Otherwise, hmmmm. Polls, schmolls. All polls are wrong. Except those that were right.

William,

Here is something to help with the polling next time. The pollsters should try to factor in things like the following, although, as implied by the guy below, I don't think they will learn anything.

I think they will ignore this stuff as they tout the superiority of their scientific methodology and behavioral science "ground games." 

.@adamcurry @THErealDVORAK @ScottAdamsSays @StefanMolyneux This sums it up perfectly pic.twitter.com/1ZKaQsbmws

— Steven Otero (@otero1) November 9, 2016

Michael

[william.scherk]

A probing question as usual from Peter ...

52 minutes ago, Peter said:

57 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

Family member sighs, says "I am going to eat my feelings today."

Pancakes for all!

Do Canadians eat scrapple with their pancakes? I like Rapa and Hugh's brands best.

We encourage all cultures to share with other Canadians, primarily and wonderfully through food, though some things don't make it across our southern border. It shows you my defective knowledge of American culture, as I don't rightly know what scrapple is.  I am going to guess it is not hominy, not grits, not crackling, not 'Canadian Bacon,' not chitlins, not fritters. 

I thought I knew America and its food culture!

Peter, this time, spare me the Google chore and tell me what scrapple is, okay? I hope it isn't little chips and chunks of pork and fat, because I had a load of that in Montreal under the name cretons -- fatty ground pork breakfast spread. 

(going down this side alley a bit further, but doubling back a bit again, we do not have a separate section in our supermarkets for American food. So, you have to hunt and hunt for things like American Cheese, Velveeta, American style 'bratwurst,'  and so on. But it can be got -- and the border is just over an hour's drive from Vancouver if you fail.  One half hour further south are the massive supermarkets of Bellingham, where there is a Wall of Hominy and a Wall of Kraft Cheese products, the likes of which we poor Canucks never see at home. 

And as I mentioned earlier, we get cheated badly on real Mexican Food. Reconsider settling in Canada for this very reason.)

Nate?  Nate is withing the margin of error, at least enough to say "I warned you. I told you so, bitches." Which makes me think of this hilarious, vulgar, politically-incorrect and obscene-language video, which I am sure everybody has seen.  Just to clear the palate.

 

Edited November 9, 2016 by william.scherk
I told you so ...

[KorbenDallas]

"Real Clear Politics: 'Evidence was there' ahead of Trump win":

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

23 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

"Real Clear Politics: 'Evidence was there' ahead of Trump win":

Korben,

LOL...

Man, was Tom Bevan squirming...

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

The FoxNews decision desk director says it wasn't that the polls were wrong it was the analysis:

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Korben,

I didn't even watch the video. I have poll number overload right now.

Anyway, does it matter? That's like saying the ingredients that killed you in the medicine weren't wrong, just the analysis.

Gee thanks...

It's funny how ALL of the polls (except two) kept erring in the wrong direction, time after time after time, ain't it?

   

Rush Limbaugh said polls are for propaganda, not measurement. And they are great hooks to cause artificial news for pundits to blab where no news exists.

I agree.

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

All polls?  Public, exit, internal?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

16 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

All polls?  Public, exit, and internal?

Korben,

There are only three ways you can know something new about someone:

1. You observe the person,

2. The person tells you about himself,

3. Others tell you about the person.

The polls fall into the third category about voters. 

But about the pollsters, among a pack of liars, is it possible someone tells the truth once in awhile? Possibly. But how would you know?

Let them tell you? They are more than happy to do so. And they have wonderful-sounding rationalizations for everything that doesn't fit. 

 

The polls screwed up all during the primaries and all during the general election. Anybody who doesn't see that isn't looking.

How much evidence does one need to observe (No. 1 above) to realize that when they talk about themselves (No. 2) or others talk about how credible they are (No. 3), the observation method is best?

My epistemological method prioritizes No. 1. For me, trust has to be earned.

(If I were a candidate, I would have my own internal polls as part of a larger toolbox, but I would control the pollsters. That would help with me trusting them. And even then, I wouldn't trust them fully. It looks like Trump sure didn't. Clinton's people did. And Trump won.  )

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

btw - Here's an interesting claim.

I don't know the research behind the claim, but Paul Joseph Watson generally has good sources.

Trump won LESS of the white vote than Romney.

The claim that his victory was thanks to "racists" is completely disproven by the facts.

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 10, 2016

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

4 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Here's an interesting claim.

I don't know the research behind the claim, but Paul Joseph Watson generally has good sources.

 

 

Michael

I think there were many folks like myself.  I am an intelligent voter,  an independent  and unmoved by racial and ethnic nonsense.  I voted for Trump  because his election would break up the corrupt political alignment which has evolved in the U.S. for at least the past 70 years.  Or to put it in bolder terms,  I -used- Trump as a wrecking ball and a sledge hammer.   

I noticed that Trump is behaving in a more "presidential" way these past few days.  Even so, I do not particularly like Donald Trump.  I find him crude and not intellectually fined tuned.  But that is a prejudice.  I am a mathematician and I have followed the canons of logic and rigor since my early adulthood.  That is a minority thing and my judgement of Trump could very well be prejudiced and biased.  Be that as it may,  I did not vote for Trump because I liked him or admired him.   I saw Trump as a -means- of striking a blow at the Establishment.   My decision was made easier (for me)  by the fact that I detest Hillary and her friends.  She is a politically ambitious person and she is devoid of fine moral discernment.   If  reaching just positions is  likened to musical performance or musical composition then I judge Hillary to be tone-deaf or even worse, I think Hillary chooses not to hear or listen.  What is worse, I think she knows better.  Shame on Hillary!  

Now I believe I am far from the only person in the United States motivated as I have indicated.  There might be a million or two million others similar to myself.  The voting age-qualified population of the U.S.  is something like one hundred and fifty million so claiming a 1/75  part to be similar to myself is not at all unreasonable.  My vote for Trump had Zero to do with race or ethnicity and everything to do with Principle,  however uncommon my principles are.  

[Peter]

I had to look it up too, William, because there wasn't any in the fridge so I could look at the ingredients.

From The Scrapple Blog. But what is scrapple? crap·ple /skrapəl/ noun: scraps of pork or other meat stewed with cornmeal and shaped into loaves for slicing and frying. Most common in the Mid-Atlantic United States. It's delicious. end quote

I think scrapple can be tracked back to the beginnings of Amish country near Lancaster Pennsylvania. I was a little kid when I was introduced to scrapple. We were living in Norfolk Virginia near Little Creek Naval Facility and we visited Mommom and Poppop in Selbyville, Delaware. Mommom served pancakes and scrapple for breakfast, and while it was frying the scrapple smelled so good. But, I was dubious and refused to eat the scrapple, which smelled a lot like bacon. But it looked like a slice of brown pound cake. My Dad suggested pouring syrup on it and I did, and so I began to love scrapple. Most people spear a chunk of scrapple and a piece of pancake and stuff it into their mouth at the same time. The combo is so good, people wolf it down until they are stuffed.

Now that I live on The Eastern Shore I have heard dozens of stories about “hog killing time” and the homemade scrapple people have been eating for over a hundred years. There are a lot of jokes about it primarily, that “nothing goes to waste!” Some commercially made scrapple sold here has bits of bacon and others have diced hot peppers, but I like the Hughes or Rapa original recipe brands. Rapa is my long time favorite. When my Dad was stationed in Sasebo, Japan the Naval commissary sold  scrapple in a can which was fair to middling. I think it was made by either by Rath or Hormel meat brands.

Peter  

[KorbenDallas]

12 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

(If I were a candidate, I would have my own internal polls as part of a larger toolbox, but I would control the pollsters. That would help with me trusting them. And even then, I wouldn't trust them fully. It looks like Trump sure didn't. Clinton's people did. And Trump won.  )

Michael

Larry Sabato said the polls were wrong and they need to improve their methods.

Tom Bevan said the data was there in some polls.

Arnon Mishkin (Foxnews) said the polls were fine, the analysis was wrong.

InfowarZ says all polls are rigged.

Rush Limbaugh says don't trust them, only trust him (to tell you when to look at them).

As far as internal polling goes, Kellyanne Conway used internal polling (which has better data) and different models, and Trump was dispatched to certain cities to hold rallies.  Trump wouldn't have been elected if it weren't for her efforts, I think what she did needs to be underscored.

[KorbenDallas]

6 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Here's an interesting claim.

I don't know the research behind the claim, but Paul Joseph Watson generally has good sources.

 

 

Trump won LESS of the white vote than Romney.

The claim that his victory was thanks to "racists" is completely disproven by the facts.

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 10, 2016

 

Michael

Wait, is that guy from Infowars?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 minute ago, KorbenDallas said:

As far as internal polling goes, Kellyanne Conway used internal polling (which has better data) and different models, and Trump was dispatched to certain cities to hold rallies.  Trump wouldn't have been elected if it weren't for her efforts, I think what she did needs to be underscored.

Korben,

No disagreement from me on this score.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 minute ago, KorbenDallas said:

Wait, is that guy from Infowars?

Korben,

Yup.

Probably the best reporter over there.

My favorite comment from him was to the New York Times when they criticized him. He told the NYT to fuck off for selling the biggest conspiracy theory in the history of mankind to the public, that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He said to fuck off and "don't tell me about conspiracy theories" or something like that.

Incidentally, he's quite respected among journalists.

Michael

[Peter]

KorbenDallas wrote: Larry Sabato said the polls were wrong and they need to improve their methods . . . . As far as internal polling goes, Kellyanne Conway used internal polling (which has better data) and different models, and Trump was dispatched to certain cities to hold rallies.  Trump wouldn't have been elected if it weren't for her efforts, I think what she did needs to be underscored. end quote

Agreed! I listened to a replay of Sabata on Fox in the morning, and he was contrite. I was wrong, says Larry.

Kellyanne is a gem. I wonder if she will continue to work for campaigns? I see Trump has hired a transition team to ready him for The White House. Good for him. Our new POTUS is very intelligent and thorough.

Peter

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

11 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Here's an interesting claim.

Seems like the source could be the NYT.

Trump's smallest gain by racial group was among whites https://t.co/YcXCrrRX68 pic.twitter.com/IbcyDnO5E0

— Ed West (@edwest) November 9, 2016

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

3 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

14 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Here's an interesting claim.

I don't know the research behind the claim, but Paul Joseph Watson generally has good sources.

[...]

Michael

Seems like the source could be the NYT.

[...]

Michael

Inference: Infowars guy wrong?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

5 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

Inference: Infowars guy wrong?

Korben,

No.

The inference is Paul Joseph Watson didn't provide a source (or maybe he did elsewhere, but not in the tweet I saw).

Just because somebody says something, even if you trust the guy, that doesn't make it true.

It is always worth qualifying and corroborating a statement without a source when you can if the issue is important.

No further inference than that.

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Korben,

No.

The inference is Paul Joseph Watson didn't provide a source (or maybe he did elsewhere, but not in the tweet I saw).

Just because somebody says something, even if you trust the guy, that doesn't make it true.

It is always worth qualifying and corroborating a statement without a source when you can if the issue is important.

No further inference than that.

Michael

The Inforwars guy said, "Trump won LESS of the white vote than Romney.  The claim that his victory was thanks to "racists" is completely disproven by the facts."

That's a factual statement, and he's saying there are facts to back it up.  But he's wrong, because Trump won more of the white vote than Romney.*

*That NYT article in the tweet above wasn't Paul Joseph Watson's source.  I looked around PrisonPlanet and found his source to be CNN     (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/clinton-votes-african-americans-latinos-women-white-voters/index.html ), "Clinton was also not as popular with white voters as Obama was. She won only 37% of the white vote, compared to Obama's 39%. Surprisingly, Trump also garnered a slightly smaller share than Romney, capturing 58% of the vote to Romney's 59%.  White voters made up 70% of the electorate this year, down from 72% four years ago."  I still don't think these numbers disprove the racist claim by the left, but whatever.

[KorbenDallas]

Here is a Bloomberg article on "How the USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll Saw Trump's Win Coming":

[...]

While closely followed polling averages gave Clinton a 3.2-point edge and preelection forecasts showed her as a heavy favorite, a team at the University of Southern California led by professor Arie Kapteyn had managed to design a poll that proved to be one of the great contrarian forecasts in the modern history of U.S. elections. As of Tuesday morning, it showed Donald Trump leading by a little more than 3 percentage points. 

[...]

"I wouldn’t necessarily say that the polls were all very far off," Kapteyn said in an interview. "It is just that most were on the wrong side of the final result."

Kapteyn thinks some polling models probably misjudged the turnout in this election of people who did not vote in 2012. The candidates and their messages were so completely different this time, appealing to different sets of interests. And Kapteyn's data were showing that these 2012 nonvoters—if they did vote this time—were more inclined toward Trump than Clinton.

[...]

The poll was set up differently than other major polls. Roughly 3,000 respondents were recruited into a panel that used an unusual method of "micro-weighting" to reflect the overall voter population. The poll was conducted by dipping back into this same pool of people each time. This may have created a more stable baseline from which to detect shifts in voter preference.

The poll design allowed respondents to assign themselves a probability, from zero to 100, of their voting for either candidate. This approach, rather than simply asking for a concrete voting preference, may have allowed the poll to be more precise in detecting shifts in sentiment. The USC poll’s results also were weighted based on how people said they voted in 2012—an approach that experts criticized on the basis that many people misstate or misremember how they voted in the past.

[...]

USC, in a rare display of transparency for political polling operations, has published its methodology for anyone to study.

Kapteyn believes it is critical for pollsters to cover every part of the population, which most online polls are unable to do, and, importantly, to have a good model of who is actually going to vote—something sorely missing ahead of Tuesday night.

[...]

Kapteyn recalls an infamous story in the polling world where four reputable firms using the same state polling data predicted four very different outcomes that varied by five points.

“On the same data!” he said. “So there’s always some room for better modeling."

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I shouldn't feel as good about this as I do:

But, man, it feels good.

 

btw - Why can't conceited people just pay up on a fuck-up without trying to make it look like they are superior for paying up? Poor bastards just can't help themselves. They are governed by their emotions...

 

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

4 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

I shouldn't feel as good about this as I do:

But, man, it feels good.

 

btw - Why can't conceited people just pay up on a fuck-up without trying to make it look like they are superior for paying up? Poor bastards just can't help themselves. They are governed by their emotions...

 

Michael

Tastes like chicken....