Selene Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 All picks must be in by 9 AM EST March 15, 2016... FLORIDA (99) — Winner take all Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ILLINOIS (69) — Statewide delegates are winner take all Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX MISSOURI (52/49) – Winner take all above 50%, otherwise winter take all by congressional district Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX NORTH CAROLINA (72/69) – Proportional Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX OHIO (66) –Winner take all Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9) – Winner take all Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump ------------------------------------------------ Evita Sanders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Here are my picks: Republican Florida Trump - 50% Cruz - 22% Rubio - 20% Kasich - 08% Dems Evita - 68% Sanders - 32% ----------------------------------------------------- North Carolina Trump - 45% Cruz - 33% Kasich - 12% Rubio - 10% Dems Evita - 42% Sanders - 58% ------------------------------------------------------- Illinois Trump - 45% Cruz - 27% Kasich - 20% Rubio - 08% Dems Evita - 44% Sanders - 56% --------------------------------------------------------- Missouri Trump - 48% Cruz - 35% Kasich - 10% Rubio - 07% Dems Evita - 43% Sanders - 57% -------------------------------------------------------- OHIO ----"The Prize" 66 winner take all Trump - 40.60% Kasitch - 40.40% Cruz - 16.00% Rubio - 03.00% Dems Evita - 49% Sanders - 51% -------------------------------------------------------- I may Pick the Dems and anyone has until 3PM EST today to pick the Dems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 (edited) My Guesstimates for today's primaries ... TRUMP CRUZ RUBIO KASICH Accumulated Delegates March 14 462 369 165 63 total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % Florida 99 99 0.44 0.18 0.26 0.1 North Carolina 72 32 0.44 24 0.33 5 0.07 8 0.11 Illinois 69 39 0.38 30 0.33 0.11 0.16 Ohio 66 0.35 0.12 0.05 66 0.4 Missouri 52 22 0.36 30 0.29 0.09 0.08 358 192 84 5 74 And Adam's guesstimates for the vote percentages: TRUMP CRUZ RUBIO KASICH total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % Florida 99 0.5 0.22 0.2 0.08 North Carolina 72 0.45 0.33 0.1 0.12 Illinois 69 0.45 0.27 0.08 0.2 Ohio 66 0.406 0.16 0.03 0.404 Missouri 52 0.48 0.35 0.07 0.1 Edited March 15, 2016 by william.scherk Added guesstimates by Adam, the only other prognosticator so far ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Here's my grille of guesses and results. I did pretty good in the forecasting ... and the results underline my three main points regarding a Trump nomination. Today's post-mortems are mostly uninteresting, speculative and rather breathless. Such is Hoopla. One of the better analyses I have seen is from the boneworms at 538, in the article It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates TRUMP CRUZ RUBIO KASICH total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % total delegates % GUESS Polls Urns GUESS Polls Urns GUESS Polls Urns GUESS Polls Urns FL 99 99 44.00% 0.457 18.00% 0.171 26.00% 0.27 10.00% 0.068 NC 32 29 44.00% 0.402 24 27 33.00% 0.368 5 6 7.00% 0.077 8 9 11.00% 0.127 IL 39 34 38.00% 0.388 30 33.00% 0.303 11.00% 0.0877 16.00% 0.197 OH 66 35.00% 0.356 12.00% 0.131 5.00% 0.029 66 66 40.00% 0.468 MO 22 15 36.00% 0.408 30 29.00% 0.406 9.00% 0.061 8.00% 0.101 258 177 84 27 5 6 74 75 RCP projection 646 397 169 142 Politico projection 652 407 169 146 NB -- not all delegates have been awarded. The rules are finicky. Eg, "If no candidate wins an absolute majority of votes cast in the March 15 presidential primary, candidates will be awarded delegates in this manner: The top vote-getter in each Congressional District will be awarded 5 delegates (3 Congressional District delegates and 2 at-large delegates). The top vote-getter statewide will be awarded 12 delegates." (Missouri) https://www.missouri.gop/election-2016/#delegates [from the 538 article] The bad news for Trump is pretty clear: even with a Missouri win, he would still have won only a little more than 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. Moreover, he’ll need to win a little more than 54 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. That’s certainly possible given there are several winner-take-all states to come, and Trump may do well in big East Coast states such as New York and New Jersey. Trump is also in a good position in Arizona, a winner-take-all state that votes next Tuesday. Still, there are plenty of ways the delegate math can go haywire for him. My own delegate estimate has Trump falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs because he has done poorly in the west so far, and many of those states haven’t voted yet. It’s also possible that Kasich plays better than we might think among moderate voters in the remaining states to vote in New England and Mid-Atlantic. Moreover, there are plenty of signs that Trump would have lost a majority of states that voted on Tuesday had Rubio not been in the race. I’m talking about Missouri and North Carolina, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in a one-on-one race in the exit polls. Trump may be rising, though he is still not getting close to a majority of the vote in most states. If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate, they probably can beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests. As if Mr Trump read the 538 article, but in reality probably in reaction to the prevailing conventional wisdom that there may well be an actual contest in Cleveland, that Trump might arrive at the head of the pack in July, but without the absolute majority required for a first-ballot win ... from the Washington Post ... Trump: ‘I think you’d have riots’ if contested convention results in a different nominee Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Wednesday that a contested GOP convention could be a disaster if he goes to Cleveland a few delegates shy of 1,237 — and doesn't leave as the party's nominee. "I think you'd have riots," Trump said on CNN. Noting that he's "representing many millions of people," Trump told host Chris Cuomo: "If you disenfranchise those people, and you say, 'I'm sorry, you're 100 votes short' ... I think you'd have problems like you've never seen before. I think bad things would happen." Now I expect the tuk-tuk of the Tut-Tut-Tutters, who are a subspecies of You People and spawn of Hater Hate Haterade. The TTTers will suggest Trump is threatening protests or suggesting that angry Trump Support will go haywire ... I will start the clock and report back on Haterade and TTT. -- part of the Tuk-Tuk about a contested convention suggests there should be no contest, which I do not understand, and I will give context for my lack of Grok. Here in Canada, we have leadership conventions, and they can be very long affairs. For example, Stephen Harper resigned as party leader on election night 2015. His parliamentary caucus (outgoing and incoming) voted for an interim leader. This is the lovely Rona Ambrose. And just last week the date of the Conservative leadership convention was set -- for May 17th 2017. Will it be a 'contested convention'? Yes, because we have nothing like primaries. Party members vote on the floor, and ballot after ballot is cast until there is a winner. So, to my understanding of the American tradition, a 'contested' convention simply means that no candidate wins on the first ballot. If Mr Trump wins on the first ballot, then it is all over for the other guys. If he doesn't win at least 1237. then the convention becomes more like the Canadian kind. One other note about the Conservative campaign. The party has set a spending limit. The limit is five million dollars. For more Zzzzzzz details of the rules, Wiki has a page with the facts and figures and processes. Who is Afraid of a Contested Convention? Not Mr Trump, it seems. And likely no Trump Supporter is afraid of a contest. (in the Miami GOP debate, Trump was clear to the point of an X-ray about the 'numbers' game ... ) HEWITT: Mr. Trump, if you arrive in Cleveland with a plurality and the most, but not a majority Note the question hinges on the difference between a plurality and a majority. , is it legitimate for someone else to emerge from that convention the nominee? And if so, would you support that person? TRUMP: I think that what should happen, getting back maybe a little bit to your first question, I think that whoever -- first of all, I think I'm going to have the delegates. OK? I think. Let's see what happens. (APPLAUSE) But if somebody doesn't have the delegates, and I guess there's two of us up here that can and there are two of us that cannot at this moment. But if -- no, that's just -- by the way, that is not meant to be a criticism. That's just a mathematical fact. OK? If two of us get up there, I would say this, if -- if Marco, if the governor, if Ted had more votes than me in the form of delegates, I think whoever gets to the top position as opposed to solving that artificial number that was by somebody, which is a very random number , I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win. That's what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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