Interpreting The Jobs Report From The Department Of Labor...

[Selene]

From Human Events - very solid article.

Economy & Budget

The ugly truth about that ‘great’ jobs report

Labor Rate participation (via Zerohedge)

By: David Harsanyi

10/5/2012 10:04 AM

Also: Jack Welch says unemployment numbers are cooked!

The Labor Department reported today that U.S. employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent – where it was when Barack Obama took office and not at the 5.8 his administration forecasted.

No doubt, the top headline of a dropping unemployment rate is helpful for the president. Democrats are celebrating. While this is certainly better news than we’ve been getting – which tells us more the sad expectations we have in the Obama era – the new unemployment rate reflects deep economic stagnation and, maybe, a new normal.

Let’s review:

• The 114,000 jobs created in September is below the average created this year, which was 146,000.
  
• The 114,000 jobs created in September is below the average created last year, which was 153,000.
  
• The U-6 unemployment number, which reflects the entire labor situation, was basically unchanged at 14.7 percent.
  
• If labor participation was where Obama had inherited it from George W. Bush, the unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent.
  
• Part-time people employment jumped from 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009. That means the quality of jobs people are finding is dropping.
  
• And a comparison: During the Ronald Reagan recovery the country average around 275,000 new jobs a month.
  

Updated:

• A 7.8 percent today ties Bush’s worst unemployment month.
  
• Although previous job growth revised up by 126,000, job growth in private sector was revised down by 4,000.
  
• August 2010: 58.5 percent of working age Americans had jobs. August 2012: 58.3 percent of working age Americans had jobs.
  
• 38,000 manufacturing jobs lost since August
  
• Black unemployment January 2009: 12.6 percent … Sept 2012: 13.4 percent.
  

If bringing the unemployment rate back to the 7.8 percent (with fewer people working at lousier jobs) is what a stimulus plan, three rounds of quantitative easing and endless spending gets us, this presidency can be safely categorized as one of the worst investments in history.

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/05/the-truth-about-that-great-jobs-report/

[Robert Campbell]

Adam,

The latest employment statistics are so incoherent that they do look like the product incompetent data collection, if not of outright frying.

Robert Campbell

[Selene]

What is U6 unemployment rate ?

The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Check U-1, U-2, U-3 (official), U-4, U-5 and U-6 unemployment rates in US

U-1 Unemployment Rate

U-2 Unemployment Rate

U-3 (Official)Unemployment Rate

U-4 Unemployment Rate

U-5 Unemployment Rate

U-6 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate - U6

2000 - 2012

Chart is generated for a range of 22 year only

http://www.portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

The household rate--to which the 7.8% refers--is done by cold-calling about 50,000 people and asking about their employment status.

Seriously.

So what could possibly go wrong?

Michael

[Robert Campbell]

Michael,

There's a wider problem. Any form of cold-calling is getting more difficult, and this is affecting political polls as well.

It's against Federal law to use computerized random dialers to call cell phone numbers, even though more and more people rely on their cell phones.

And willingness to participate when reached by pollsters is at an all-time low.

Robert Campbell