Oh Well...It Looks Like It's Over - O'bama Is Winning Big!

[Selene]

Ya gotta love great marketing!!!!

Here’s something to percolate your politics.

A poll based on coffee cups that has been completely accurate since it began in 2000 suggests Barack Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in this year’s race for president.

The 7-Eleven convenience-store chain is again conducting its survey it calls “unabashedly unofficial and unscientific,” with customers voting by selecting specially marked coffee cups, blue for Obama and red for Romney. Regular non-partisan cups are available for those who don’t want to trumpet their political affiliation.

Continuous results are displayed on a special website the company has posted online, and the ongoing tally for each state can be seen by clicking on that state.

As of Wednesday, Sept. 26, the president holds a commanding 16 percent lead in the popular vote, collecting 58 percent of cups compared to 42 percent for the former Massachusetts governor.

And the news isn’t better for Romney when it comes to an electoral-style map, as he holds a lead in only four states: Idaho, New Hampshire, South Carolina and West Virginia. North Carolina appears to be tied at this point.

7-Eleven's interactive election map shows Barack Obama with a large lead.

The chain says about 7 million customers visit its stores each day.

“Around 1 million of those purchase a cup of 7-Eleven coffee,” said president and CEO Joe DePinto.

“While we have never billed 7-Election as scientific or statistically valid, it is astounding just how accurate this simple count-the-cups poll has been – election after election. We have had a lot of fun with it, and I hope we have encouraged people how important it is to vote in the real election.”

In 2008, 7-Eleven voters picked Obama as the winner by a 52 to 46 percent margin over John McCain. That was extremely close to the actual result which had Obama winning 52.9 to 45.7. Even the professional Gallup polltakers were not as prescient as the coffee drinkers, as Gallup’s final prediction was 55 to 45 in favor of Obama.

In 2004, 7-Eleven voters chose George W. Bush over John Kerry 51 to 49 percent, again hauntingly close to the actual result of 50.7 to 48.3.

In 2000, the coffee-cups prediction accurately chose Bush over Al Gore by one percentage point. Bush won the race in the Electoral College, though Gore won the actual popular vote that year by a razor-thin 48.4 to 47.9 percent margin.

Lisa Arthur of Forbes magazine reports, “It’s interesting to note that since this campaign was first tried during the presidential election in 2000, 7-Eleven ‘coffee-cup voters’ have successfully predicted the winner in each presidential election, which means the 7-Election has a better track record than some well-known statistically valid polls.”

She adds the accuracy factor “is likely driving more people to buy coffee so they can register their preference long before Election Day on November 6.”

[Peter]

Ohio is a worry. I think Rubio and retirees can swing Florida. We need a "Great Debate." If I were the Romney camp I would worry about a "fly on the wall" recording Mitt's mock debates and preparation. The ears of the President are large.

Peter

[Selene]

Ohio is a worry. I think Rubio and retirees can swing Florida. We need a "Great Debate." If I were the Romney camp I would worry about a "fly on the wall" recording Mitt's mock debates and preparation. The ears of the President are large.

Peter

Peter:

Relax...

They are dead tied in Ohio and the undecideds generally go 60% to 70% to the challenger when they break which could be as soon as October 25th.

Additionally, the early voting numbers are heavily weighted towards registered Republican so far in Ohio.

Adam

[Selene]

This is an internal instate Ohio poll that I have been watching for a while. These results are very recent - Sept. 25th...

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45.2% {47.27%} [43.7%] (45.3%)
  
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44.3% {43.19%} [46.8%] (44.4%)
  
• Other/Unsure 10.4% {9.54%} [9.5%] (10.3%)
  

If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 44.5% {46.47%}
  
• Mitt Romney 37.8% {42.39%}
  
• Gary Johnson 10.6% {4.5%}
  
• Other/Unsure 7.1%
  

Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as president?

• Approve 45.3%
  
• Disapprove 46.4%
  

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

• Favorable 41.1%
  
• Unfavorable 44.4%
  

If you were broken down on the side of the road, who do you think would stop and help — Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Paul Ryan, or Joe Biden?

• Barack Obama 32.1%
  
• Mitt Romney 26.3%
  
• Paul Ryan 25.5%
  
• Joe Biden 16.2%
  

[BaalChatzaf]

Ohio is a worry. I think Rubio and retirees can swing Florida. We need a "Great Debate." If I were the Romney camp I would worry about a "fly on the wall" recording Mitt's mock debates and preparation. The ears of the President are large.

Peter

Romney debating? I am almost afraid to imagine what size shoe he will stuff in his own mouth.

Mitt Romeny is a schmuck and he is going to lose.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Peter]

Ba'al Chatzaf wrote:

Mitt Romney is a schmuck and he is going to lose.

end quote

If the election is a tie, Ba’al is wrong. Why would you say he is a schmuck? I think Bibi’s address to the UN was a bit schmuck-y. His drawing of a bomb should have looked like an H-Bomb not like a 17^th century bomb with a burning fuse from a “Roadrunner” cartoon.

Adam wrote:

They are dead tied in Ohio and the undecideds generally go 60% to 70% to the challenger when they break which could be as soon as October 25th.

end quote

Excellent analysis Adam. Harry Binswanger in the article, “The Possible Dream” in The Objectivist Forum of April 1981 was not writing specifically about the polling process when he wrote:

The truth is that proper, this – worldly standards are “more demanding” than standards which cannot be met – more demanding “intellectually.” Defining and applying rational standards takes a careful process of independent thought, while the mystical “standards” turn out to be simple – minded substitutes for mental effort: vague images, canned slogans, and floating abstractions . . . . The claim that perfection is impossible attempts to blame reality for the problems resulting from the cavalier misuse of concepts – from invalid definitions, equivocations, and “stolen concepts.”

end quote

Harry goes on to consider three areas in which perfection is commonly believed to be unattainable: morality, politics, and epistemology.

Adam has already convinced me that Rasmussen is he most reliable pollster. I want to avoid thinking optimistically and “for our side.” So I also appreciate Ba’al’s *scientific evidence* as the only valid form of knowledge. When polls are 98 percent accurate I will be more assured. IBM’s Watson computer and the computer on that show, “A Person of Interest” which aired last night are good tools and human and computer hunches can be surprisingly right. We tend to not remember the hunches that were wrong.

Peter

[Selene]

Mr. Taylor:

Thank you.

Adam

[Dan Haggerty]

Michigan is obviously biased in this poll since most of the 7-11s outside of Detroit have gone out of business.

One of many reasons we are trying to sell it back to the Indians.

[Selene]

Michigan is obviously biased in this poll since most of the 7-11s outside of Detroit have gone out of business.

One of many reasons we are trying to sell it back to the Indians.

Yep...Dave Bing could hit a three pointer and distribute the ball and win..however, he could not translate those skills to government because the government paradigm is antithetical to success, teamwork and individual excellence within the team concept. I know because I proved it in NY City government and the system almost had a coronary.

http://www.detroitmi.gov/MayorsOffice/tabid/123/Default.aspx

versus

Bing's playing style was somewhat unusual for the time. As a lean, athletic and explosive point guard, he functioned as the playmaker distributing the ball, but also did more shooting and scoring than most others who had this position. At one time a joke about him and his backcourt partner, Jimmy Walker, was that it was a shame they could only play the game with one ball at a time.

In 1966, Bing joined the NBA as a second overall first-round pick of the Detroit Pistons, where in his rookie year he scored 1,601 points (20.0 points per game) and was named the NBA Rookie of the Year. The next year, he led the NBA in scoring with 2,142 points (27.1 points per game) in 1968. Bing sat out 2½ months of the 1971-72 season due to a detached retina incurred from a preseason game against the Los Angeles Lakers, playing in only 45 games that season.^[4] While with the Pistons, he played in seven NBA All-Star Games (1968, 1969, 1971–1976, and winning the 1976 NBA All-Star Game MVP Award) and was named to the All-NBA First Team twice in 1968 and 1969.

After his career with the Detroit Pistons, Bing went on to spend two years with the Washington Bullets and one with the Boston Celtics before retiring at the conclusion of the 1977–1978 season. He averaged 20.3 points and six assists per game in his 12 NBA seasons and was awarded the J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award in 1977.

Bing was elected to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 1990. In 1996, he was named one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players.

[Dan Haggerty]

Great example.

Ah yes, the rush to avoid our state "Emergency Managers" as Detroit continues to implode on itself. Sadly they needed Bing as a responsible known face due to the corruption and incompetence of previous Mayors. Their only saving grace is that Flint has passed them in unemployment and crime. You know it's bad when I have former ambulance drivers from Flint, who drive over a hundred miles to be there, in my class to become a truck driver because it pays better and is safer. Evidently the gang bangers have devolved to the point they will shoot at the one person on the street that will save their ass.

Perhaps we can get Ohio to take Detroit from us. We gave them Toledo back in the day and that worked out well for Wolverine State so maybe we can give them the Thumb and call it a day.

[Selene]

Great example.

Ah yes, the rush to avoid our state "Emergency Managers" as Detroit continues to implode on itself. Sadly they needed Bing as a responsible known face due to the corruption and incompetence of previous Mayors. Their only saving grace is that Flint has passed them in unemployment and crime. You know it's bad when I have former ambulance drivers from Flint, who drive over a hundred miles to be there, in my class to become a truck driver because it pays better and is safer. Evidently the gang bangers have devolved to the point they will shoot at the one person on the street that will save their ass.

Perhaps we can get Ohio to take Detroit from us. We gave them Toledo back in the day and that worked out well for Wolverine State so maybe we can give them the Thumb and call it a day.

Dan:

Interesting observation. I can remember my father coming home with the scent of smoke on his clothes from "runs" into Harlem, South Jamaica during the 1968 riots.

My father was a remarkable individual and I would watch him, exhausted from having led his men into burning tenements where waves of roaches and rats would swarm over their bodies as they slogged their way up four (4), or five (5) flights of stairs, to rescue a 300 pound woman and her children.

Then as they existed the building, having saved lives, they had to dodge bullets, Molotov cocktails and bricks.

He would sit at the table, and, attempt to eat the warmed over meal that my mother had, lovingly, kept for him, and shake his head and look at me, plaintively, and ask me why would these folks try to stop his men from saving the people in the burning buildings?.

I knew the answer then. However, I would not disgrace his efforts, and the efforts of his men, with the answer, that was for another conversation which we had later that year.

Adam