OK it is time for Michigan and Arizona Predictions for Tuesday's Rep. Primary

[Selene]

One fact to consider in Michigan is the stupid early voting.

"Romney has a sizable lead in Michigan among those who have already voted.

According to PPP, 16 percent of likely voters have already cast their ballots, and they did so 62 percent to 29 percent in favor of Romney over Santorum."

Michigan: February 28

Overview

30 Delegates (1.31% of total)

Primary

28 by CD (WTA) <<<<Winner take all

2 At-Large

Michigan, by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in March, is violating RNC rules and has been penalized half its delegation. Although Michigan has been through this song and dance before, they have (at long last) adopted plans to allocate delegates given these penalties.

The winner of each CD will receive 2 delegates. There are 14 CD's in Michigan, for a total of 28 delegates by CD.

The remaining 2 delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote. It is not yet clear whether these two delegates will also be assigned WTA, or (as per the non-penalized rules) will be assigned 'proportionally' with a "15%" cutoff. Of course, if they do assign them proportionally, I imagine the real cutoff will be 25% (there being only 2 delegates).

RNC Penalties

In the event RNC penalties are removed, the original delegate allocation plans will presumably be followed. For reference, they are:

42 of these 56 delegates will be chosen by Congressional District, WTA. 14 delegates will be chosen on a statewide basis, proportionally, with a 15% cutoff. After rounding to the nearest whole delegate, any additional delegates needed will be given to the statewide winner; if there is a surplus of delegates, they will be removed from the candidate with the fewest votes. In addition, 3 RNC members will be unpledged.

RNC Members

Due to RNC penalties, the 3 RNC members from Michigan will not have voting privileges at the convention. If the sanctions are removed, they will act as unpledged delegates.

Bobby Schostak

Saul Anuzis - Romney

Holly June Hughes - Romney

Arizona: February 28

Overview

29 Delegates (1.27% of total)

Primary

Winner-Take-All

All 29 delegates in Arizona are assigned to the statewide winner.

Arizona violated RNC rules by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in March, and thus lost half of its delegates. It is possible these may may be restored later by the RNC, in which case the Arizona Primary would be assigning 58 delegates (all still At-Large WTA).

Since Arizona is assigning its delegates as Winner-Take-All, it is also violating RNC rules forbidding such contests before April. The RNC may choose to again penalize Arizona, but this seems very unlikely.

RNC Members

In the event sanctions are lifted on Arizona, its RNC members are bound to the winner of the primary, and are included in the 58 At-Large delegates noted above.

[Peter]

I predict that Mitt Romney will win Michigan by one or two percent and Arizona by ten.

There are some good, hard facts in the article below, which make me wonder if my analyses have been too lenient on Santorum. I still don’t think he is one tenth as bad as Obama but it is disturbing that Rick might try to be as bad. The Howler Monkeys on the left would prevent Santorum’s attempts to sidestep the Constitution, unlike the pass they give the Commie in Chief.

Peter Taylor

From TownHall, How Santorum Fails Constitution 101 By Katie Kieffer

Constitution 101

. . . Both Obama and Santorum have vocalized their discontent with the U.S. Constitution. Newsmax reports:

“…during a September 2001 Chicago public radio program,” Obama said that the “country’s Founding Fathers had ‘an enormous blind spot’ when they wrote it [the Constitution]. Obama also remarked that the Constitution ‘reflected the fundamental flaw of this country that continues to this day.’”

Santorum routinely trivializes the Constitution and implies that, as president, he would override the Constitution’s own words (like the 10th Amendment) in favor of his personal ideology. He has said that the Constitution isn’t the “end-all, be-all” and he’s implied that reading the Constitution literally could lead to a French-style revolution because our Constitution gives “radical freedom.”

The Founding Fathers did not allow the president to cherry-pick sections of the Constitution to enforce, depending on his or her beliefs. Article VI, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution declares the Constitution to be “the supreme law of the land” and Article II, Section 1 states that the President must take an oath to “…preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” The Founders specifically forbid the president from legislating or becoming a religious leader à la King Henry VIII, who ordained himself the Supreme Head of the Church of England.

The Constitution states that the president needs to get Congress’ permission to go to war. I’m not sure that Santorum agrees with the Constitution here. In debates, he gives the impression that he thinks it’s the president’s role to lead the nation to war and even authorize assassinations against civilian scientists rumored to be working on a nuclear program. Red flags go off when you notice that Santorum’s approach to foreign policy is nearly identical to Obama’s approach.

In a December, 2011 Fox News debate Santorum said: “…we need to make sure that they [iran] do not have a nuclear weapon. And we would, should, be working with the state of Israel right now; we should use covert activity and we should be planning a strike against their facilities and say if you do not open up those facilities and not close them down, we will close them down for you.”

He has also

: “I’m hopeful that some of the things we’re seeing with respect to the nuclear program—that the United States is involved with. Which is, on occasion, nuclear scientists working on the nuclear program in Iran will turn up dead. I think that’s a wonderful thing. I think we should send a very clear message that if you are a nuclear scientist from Russia or from North Korea or from Iran and you’re gonna work on the nuclear program to develop a nuclear bomb for Iran, you are not safe. And if people say, well you can’t go out and assassinate people, well, tell that to [Al-]Awlaki. OK? We’ve done it. We’ve done it for an American citizen.”

The Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Amendments protect American citizens from being treated like foreign terrorists or denied due process of law. However, Santorum seems to dismiss constitutional due process for American citizens.

Wolf Blitzer recently interviewed Sen. Rand Paul on CNN’s Situation Room and asked Paul to comment on “on the issue of Iran, when it comes to Santorum saying he’s ready to bomb Iran…” Paul responded: “…you want a commander in chief who’s in charge of nuclear weapons who will not use them carelessly, who will not take the nation to war carelessly and who also understands that Congress gets to vote on declaring war; one man should never decide for our country to go to war.”

Private Property, Free Speech, Sex and Marriage

Per the Constitution, the federal government may not regulate sexual or committed relationships between two consenting adults. Only the states and individuals may do so. Santorum does not appear to believe that individuals own their own persons or their own homes. Rather, he thinks that the President can dictate how individuals use their bodies and act within their homes. He has said: “There is no such society that I am aware of where we’ve had radical individualism and it succeeds as a culture.” (I would say America is a society where radical individualism has clearly succeeded.)

Santorum told the Associated Press on April 23, 2003: “…if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything.”

This is a troubling statement because the purpose of government is to protect private property—including the right to one’s own body. Santorum seems willing to let the federal government barge into private homes and arrest Americans for sinning.

Obama selectively enforces federal law (think DOMA or federal immigration laws). Likewise, Santorum has warned that, as president, he would not uphold the 10th Amendment. He also seems unwilling to enforce the First Amendment, which bans any “law respecting an establishment of religion” and guarantees the “free exercise” of religion.

Santorum told pollster Dr. Frank Luntz in Iowa on Nov. 19, 2011: “…the idea that the only things that the States are prevented from doing are only things specifically established in the Constitution is wrong. Our country is based on a moral enterprise. Gay marriage is wrong. …there are folks here who said that ‘states can do this and I won't get involved in that.’ I will get involved in that… as a president.”

Santorum wants to regulate marriage and religious expression with a federal marriage amendment. Per the First and Tenth amendments, the federal government has zero control over our bedrooms and marriages. Ideally, individuals would get married in their own churches and the government would stay out of marriage. However, constitutionally, states may define marriage.

Spending

Santorum’s record reveals his penchant for spilling the federal purse. The Club for Growth writes: “[santorum’s] record is plagued by the big-spending habits that Republicans adopted during the Bush years of 2001-2006.”

Santorum voted to raise the national debt five times, the largest entitlement increase since the 1960’s at $727 billion (via the Prescription Drug Act and Medicare Improvement Act) and doubling the size of the Department of Education (via the No Child Left Behind Act).

Highlights from his voting record:

• May 25, 1995: Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to subsidize student loans

• June 27, 1997: Voted to hike taxes by $2.3 billion for Amtrak

• July 16, 1997: Voted to increase the administrative costs of a Government finance institution (OPIC) by 50%

• March 11, 1998: Voted against repealing Clinton's 4.3-cent gas tax

• March 26, 1998: Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF

• April 2, 1998: Voted against paying off the national debt within 30 years

• June 4, 1998: Voted to swap marriage penalty tax relief for fines on tobacco companies

• June 18, 1999: Voted for a $1 billion bailout of the steel industry

• April 5, 2000: Voted to pay down national debt by dipping into Social Security instead of utilizing surpluses

• May 21 and Nov. 15, 2001: Voted (twice) to tax the internet

• February 14, 2006: Voted for a $140 billion asbestos compensation bill

• March 16, 2006: Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion

• May 4, 2006: Voted against transferring $20 million from AmeriCorps to veterans

Conclusions

Show me a major political issue that Santorum approaches constitutionally, and I'll show you a pink dinosaur. I’m concerned that Santorum would be an activist, “community organizing” president like President Obama. I fear he would sidestep Congress and violate the Constitution’s separation of powers when it comes to entering war and spending federal taxpayer dollars. By selectively ignoring the Constitution in favor of advancing his personal ideology, I’m concerned that he would encroach on the rights of states and individuals.

[Selene]

Maybe he finally got religion...oops!

Forget I said that!

[Selene]

Michigan is an Open Primary, which means that anyone can vote [retarded Republican Party Rules].

A little over fifty percent [50%] of the Republican base in Michigan is evangelical Christian.

The Democrats are running an "Operation Hilarity" asking Democrats to go and vote for Santorum. There is no Democratic Primary in Michigan.

Santorum is robo calling Democrats in Michigan...looking for the Reagan Democrats.

My picks:

Santorum 40%

Romney 37%

Dr. Paul 14%

Gingrich 9%

Arizona is a closed Primary with a heavy Mormon Republican base.

Romney 41%

Santorum 29%

Gingrich 19%

Dr. Paul 11%

[Peter]

Different time zones mean a later closing time for the polls, EST. So far at noon, it is still a statistical tie in Michigan with Romney slightly ahead, but as Adam noted “mischief votes” from Democrats voting for Santorum could swing the primary. I will have a tougher time being enthusiastic about Rick, but whoever is nominated it is going to be the toughest election ever for the Republican.

Alternative news sources will need to be used by the our candidate and his Pacs when going against Obama. They should start vetting them now, lining up the internet, newspapers, Radio and local TV Stations. Fox has a lot of affiliates that should run conservative’s ads, but they are locally owned and susceptible to brow beating by Media Matters, the major networks, and other left wing media sources and watchdogs.

From Townhall, “Pettiness and Mud” by Thomas Sowell:

It has worked during the primary season, when the media are perfectly happy to see Republicans destroying each other. But it will not work in the general election campaign, when even truthful criticisms of the president will have a hard time getting out through the media, which hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil when it comes to Obama.

end quote

It won’t be business as usual in November 2012, but money still talks. I hope to see a lot of chatter. Once the winner is selected it is in our interest to support that candidate.

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

Well, I was wrong on Michigan...looks like Goody Two Shoes held serve.

The last poll released last night showed the trend lines moving to Santorum. However, 9% of the folks who decided who to vote for today, overwhelmingly went for Romney.

They split the Tea Party vote, [correction - Romney took the women's vote by about 4-5 points]. Santorum needed to take the Tea Party be about 55-60%.

The financial conservative of the Republican Party in Michigan went solidly for Romney. The bell weather county Macomb went to Romney 43% to 35% which was the key to the election.

[Peter]

Adam wrote:

Well, I was wrong on Michigan . . . looks like Goody Two Shoes held serve.

end quote

Adam? Take a deep breath. No “tennis” love for your son’s Cain and Abel and Mitt, let along Eve who you have been neglecting? Catholics even backed Mitt by five. The Son’s of Italy should get on board. Trump mattered in Michigan. He sent out robo-calls for Mitt. Conservatives and members of the Tea Party cared about The Donald’s opinion, according to exit polls. Who knew? Don’t get me wrong, I like Trump. He is a refreshing voice but not a heavyweight. Still, you help your friends when you can and Donald did just that. He stepped up to the plate. He went further than he had to. He is honorable, and he is welcome as a voice of minor influence in MY Tea Party, and he was worth a couple of percentage points. I bet Santorum is second guessing his disgusting trashing of gays. Let’s see, a couple of percent of the population times parents and friends of gays, times Constitutionalists who support equal protection under the law, times . . .

Ohio will be Santorum’s last shot. Then we begin the decisive battle of the Century. Good against Evil.

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

Delegate count after last nights Arizona and Michigan primaries:

Romney 145

Rest of field 131 [santorum - 82; Gingrich - 29; Dr. Paul -18; and the other Mormon "what's his name" - 2]

[Selene]

This is fascinating. Romney's media machine is trying to turn yesterday's Michigan "victory" into a coronation, but the dirty little secret is they split the delegates 15-15.

==================================

Michigan awards their delegates by Congressional District. So while Romney narrowly won the statewide popular vote, we won the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 13th districts, and one more district, the 5th, is within a 100 votes and there might be a recount. Gov. Romney and I will each get one of Michigan's two at large delegates, giving us a split of 15-15.

Here's the bottom line: Mitt Romney and his SuperPAC outspent us by millions of dollars in his home state, and he couldn't come away with anything better than a tie in the delegate count. No matter what the press would have you believe this morning, we are now in for a long, important battle. But before I get to that, I just have to tell you, I thought a lot about my grandfather last night.

[Selene]

Romney's Michigan State Republican Party thugs steal delegate from Santorum...

Romney's forces merely change the rules for allocating delegates ex post facto.

Despicable individual...he will do and say anything to gain power.

[Peter]

Adam wrote:

Romney's forces merely change the rules for allocating delegates ex post facto. Despicable individual...he will do and say anything to gain power.

end quote

Will you correct your mistakes?

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

Adam wrote:

Romney's forces merely change the rules for allocating delegates ex post facto. Despicable individual...he will do and say anything to gain power.

end quote

Will you correct your mistakes?

Peter Taylor

Of course. What was the mistake?