KorbenDallas

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Korben,

That is based on three assumptions (probably more) that deserve to be checked because, in my view, they do not reflect reality.

1. Women are shallow voters who have no concern about issues and are only concerned about public image--that is, about what others say about how men treat them or about whether men use foul language in a manner they don't like. In other words, the assumption is that women don't have brains for large topics like the country, but instead only value personal relationships. As a corollary to that assumption, the Lady vote is homogeneous and women vote in a collective block.

2. Corporate polls are accurate predictors.

I didn't look at the polls to make my conclusions earlier.  However, they are concomitant with what I said, and among several women demographics:

Foxnews Oct 14:

In the four-way race, Clinton is favored among non-whites (+62 points), suburban women (+24), women (+19), and voters under 30 (+16).  Third party candidates hurt her among younger voters, as about one in four of them go for Johnson or Stein.  

Trump’s the pick for men (+5 points), whites (+14), and whites without a college degree (+25).  

Since last week, the largest declines in support for him are among women ages 45 and over (down 12 points), voters ages 65+ (down 11), suburban women (down 10), white women with a college degree (down 7), GOP women (down 6), and white college graduates (down 6).

CBSNews Oct 16:

A big swing in the women’s vote has propelled Hillary Clinton into a six-point lead across the battleground states, as seven in ten women feel Donald Trump does not respect them. 

Last month the women’s vote in these key states was five points more for Clinton; today it is 15 points in Clinton’s favor – accounting for most of the swing, overall - and it even outweighs partisanship. Trump was at 84 percent among Republican women then, and has dropped to 77 percent today.

And in a sign of what’s become a very personal presidential race, at least half of voters say they like Donald Trump’s policies on the economy and defense, and even like them a bit more than Clinton’s, but Trump is trailing in large part because voters say they dislike him personally.

Seventy percent of voters do not think Trump respects women. Seventy-three percent of women say this, 66 percent of men do. Although most (52 percent) Republicans think people are making too much out of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” tapes, 60 percent of independents find them offensive and 70 percent of women do. Nine in ten women who find the tapes offensive, and who were not already for Trump, say they wouldn’t consider Trump now.
 

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

3. Hillary Clinton has the Lady vote, or will have it by election day.

I don't believe any of these assumptions. In my view of women, they are a lot smarter and more diverse than that.

In fact, I know a boatload of women right here in Evanston, IL, which is about as left as you can get, who are diehard Trump supporters.

Also, we don't know what WikiLeaks has cooked up in this department, but I have a feeling it ain't good for Hillary Clinton.

Just food for thought.

Unless WikiLeaks has a smoking gun it won't matter, there's no shock.  The Access Hollywood tape is the October surprise and it cost Trump the election.  Trump needs more women voters aside from his diehards: other Republicans, independents, undecideds, millennials, cross-over Democrats, but I don't think he will get them.  And what Trump might have had with a Brexit style unaccounted voter (both men and women) is neutralized by the women that won't vote for him now. 

56 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

-- at the sound of 1, 2, 3, you will snap out of your trance, completely forgetting what you learned about a 'from Canada' viewpoint... one ... two ... three.

54 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

Another way of assessing taste for 'Brexit' in Canada is our painful history with separatism.  Ultimately we figure we survive better and prosper better 'together,' that the interprovincial freedom to live and travel and succeed under a confederation trumps state independence. That could explain why a strong majority are non-Trumpish on the topic of free trade.  We owe our livelihoods to the free flow of goods and people. We invite the world to our country and we wish the reciprocal rewards.

I ran across this article a few weeks ago, "This Is the Freest Country in the World [Canada]"
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/11/03/canada-is-the-freest-nation-in-the-world-legatum-study-says

It's a short article:

32 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

Mr Trump has perhaps put the edge on my Red Hat explanation today.  With that hat firmly on, firmly enough to produce pain, I can say that the only thing that can stop the Trump juggernaut is Riggy Business. I can't specify which particulars in this thought experiment, but let's just say that despite the poll-watching, despite individual heroes in five thousand precincts, despite the obviousness of the intent to depress GOP turnout, there is still a possibility that this most magnificent future -- in which a Trump storms to a landslide -- may be Stolen.  Gingrich himself says this is a possibility.

I think the Brexit vote is neutralized now by not having the Lady vote.

17 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Rush says the corporate media and polls are designed to get you to feel discouraged so you will not have energy to encourage people to vote for the Republican candidate. And they always do this. That way you will stop campaigning. Hell, some get so discouraged they don't even vote since they believe the fix is in. But that is a huge mistake because the real polls will appear only about 5 days before election. The reason? The polling companies stake their reputations to those polls which have to reflect reality, not everything that came before where they can allege a crapload of excuses for getting it wrong. 

The Access Hollywood tape was funny for a while, but I'm sick of looking at any news source and seeing this crap:

I don't want to know the details of Bill Clinton's past or the details of Trump's past---whether one exists or doesn't.  Ayn Rand would be furious at the state of our politics, it's off the moral spectrum and devoid of values, anti-life.

Trump didn't do opposition research on himself and ultimately I think that will cost him.  Any Republican nominee needs the Lady vote and he lost it.

Trump has said some things outside of the Access Hollywood tape that are disgusting and I think it's going to be very difficult for him to win.  I'm still casting my vote for him but it's in part for policy and in part consequence vote against Hillary.  I think it makes more sense to project out to Nov 9th and figure out how Trump lost rather than won---unless Assange can deliver a smoking gun which I don't think he has.