BaalChatzaf

Science, then and now -- especially "climate science"

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ClimateScienceTimeline_200yrs_1820_2010_

 

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2 hours ago, william.scherk said:

ClimateScienceTimeline_200yrs_1820_2010_

 

If the sun stopped shining, the earth would freeze and the atmosphere  liquify.  CO2 does not really stop or trap heat.  It slows down rate at which energy in the IR ranges  radiate into space.  Space is cold and the atmosphere is warm.  Energy will flow from the atmosphere into space by radiation.  That is the second law of thermodynamics at work. Tyndall showed the CO2 absorbs energy in the IR bands. By the Stefan Boltzmann law it must also radiate that energy at a rate proportional to the 4 th power of the absolute temperature difference between the atmosphere and space.  Heat cannot be "trapped". It can be inhibited from flowing by an adiabatic body, but that only slows things down.  There are no perfect insulators.

 

 

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8 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

22688843_10155642874455281_8218390788268

The NOW part, with minor modifications, applies to not only climate change but also to fake science to market a product. This kind of fake science is common. Whenever science is done on a product, a red alert should go off in your head.

FAKE SCIENCE ALERT   ---- FAKE SCIENCE ALERT  ---  FAKE SCIENCE ALERT ---   

The scientists will prove whatever they are paid to prove by the company selling the product. And most people believe it's real science.

There are many examples. But rather than getting into examples of products, consider what would be required for a company to do honest science about a product it is trying to market. What would be required for a tobacco company some decades ago to do honest science and to tell the public the truth about their product?

Our studies have shown that our product that we sell is bad for your health and can be addicting and might kill you. We recommend that you do not buy our product.

Imagine they spent some millions of dollars on an advertising campaign to warn people about the dangers of their product and to suggest to people that they should not buy it.

Ain't gonna happen.

So, whenever there is a  scientific study on a product ....

FAKE SCIENCE ALERT   ---- FAKE SCIENCE ALERT  ---  FAKE SCIENCE ALERT ---   

BATTLE STATIONS!  SHIELDS UP!

 

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5 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

It seems many scientific papers--studies--can't be reproduced--that there's a lot of peer-reviewed published garbage.

--Brant

That is a vexing ongoing problem right now.  Some of the not so properly corroborated stuff might turn out to be right.  Even so, there ought to be a move not to publish improperly  vetted material.

Unfortunately the availability of grant money is related to publication.  The grants may be a perverse incentive to produce less than quality scientific results.

 

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The other day a radio commentator (Rush Limbaugh?) was saying that in the last two years there have been 40 reputable papers that mention the fact that 1) climate science is not an article of faith but instead a constantly changing subject as more is “scientifically” learned. 2) the climatic changes we see are normal. And 3) if anything the earth is cooling.

 

Spoiler Alert! I am reading the latest Clive Cussler book . . . .

 

 

 

that interestingly has the oceans rising but not because of ice melting. Instead it may be because new mountain ranges are rising beneath the oceans displacing ocean water. A ridge several hundred miles long, a few hundred feet wide, and just beginning to rise could raise the ocean levels by inches.

Peter

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... if anything the earth is cooling

22 minutes ago, Peter said:

... if anything the earth is cooling.

gfs_nh-sat6_t2anom_1-day.png

Edited by william.scherk
'"What is a temperature anomaly" for 500, Alex.'

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

Spoiler Alert! I am reading the latest Clive Cussler book . . . .

 

I got hooked on Cussler a couple of months ago. Some of his books make me think of Rand minus the preaching of the big important point, especially the Isaac Bell stories with the railroads and big industrialists, etc.  Romantic heroism, adventure, larger than life plots pushing the boundaries of believability. He's kind of the fun side of Rand with Steven King's prolificacy.

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

3) if anything the earth is cooling.

 

2017 was cooler than 2016, so that's true.

Heh. Remember the hottest year ever on record by far we're all going to die hype? I think it was Tracinski who mocked the lack of numbers accompanying the scare stories, and then he looked into them and discovered that, when considering the margin of error, the truth was that the results should have been called "inconclusive" at best. He said that scare-mongering was like saying that the ball was on the ten yard line, give or take a hundred yards. Silly alarmists.

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On ‎2‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 2:16 PM, william.scherk said:

gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png

This has been the coolest "spring" on Delmarva in billions and billions of years. Around this time the "local scientific" weathermen start hyping how wonderful it will be on the weekend when visitors from Baltimore and Philly "should" head to Ocean City, Maryland even though it is going to be 60 and then 61 on the weekend. I'd dare ya, William to wade into the surf.     

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19 hours ago, Jonathan said:

2017 was cooler than 2016, so that's true.

Heh. Remember the hottest year ever on record by far we're all going to die hype? I think it was Tracinski who mocked the lack of numbers accompanying the scare stories, and then he looked into them and discovered that, when considering the margin of error, the truth was that the results should have been called "inconclusive" at best. He said that scare-mongering was like saying that the ball was on the ten yard line, give or take a hundred yards. Silly alarmists.

I still stand by the data in my political geology class from the late seventies or early eighties. We are in a 10,000 year upswing in temperature, inside of a larger 100,000 year downswing. My politically incorrect "perfessor" at Salisbury University suggested we use existing tech to warm ourselves up a bit, but if we spread cheap and plentiful coal dust on the ice we could raise the sea level enough to cause more flooding than we now experience, but we would be rainier and warmer. So many locals live close to the water around here. I am about a mile from the Assawoman Bay which is fun to say, but we dread seeing the water back up in the ditches to areas close to our house. I have a plan to pull down the stairs from the hallway ceiling to get up into the attic, if I wake up to water in the house.     

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7 hours ago, Peter said:

 I have a plan to pull down the stairs from the hallway ceiling to get up into the attic, if I wake up to water in the house.     

Store an ax and ladder in your attic. Keep some food and water and so forth handy. 

 

Lindzen's classic lecture on climate sensitivity still has merit.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2czGg3fUUA

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13 hours ago, Robert_Bumbalough said:

Store an ax and ladder in your attic. Keep some food and water and so forth handy. 

 

Lindzen's classic lecture on climate sensitivity still has merit.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2czGg3fUUA

More NOAA surface temp falsehood and scientific fraud 

 

 

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"This has been the coolest "spring" on Delmarva in billions and billions of years."

On 4/18/2018 at 10:21 AM, Peter said:

We are in a 10,000 year upswing in temperature, inside of a larger 100,000 year downswing.

delmarva01.png

On 4/18/2018 at 10:12 AM, Peter said:

This has been the coolest "spring" on Delmarva in billions and billions of years.

delmarva01b.png

On 4/18/2018 at 10:21 AM, Peter said:

[W]e dread seeing the water back up in the ditches to areas close to our house.

 

delmarva01c.png

 

Edited by william.scherk
Fixed link to the Inundation map site

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Thanks for the maps and graphs, William. The idea that Delmarva is sinking like Florida is a new one for me, though a lot of water is pumped out of the ground in Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, Fenwick Island Delaware and Ocean City Maryland. I have had well water for many years and it seems to be replenishing. The only time we had a problem was when a local farmer several hundred yards away was watering his fields and a “truck garden.” Joke. 1970’s lyrics. “We dug a deeper hole and all is well. Can you dig it? Shut your mouth. I’m talking about Shaft.”

As far as the few degrees of average high temperatures rising from 1950 to now, is hard to quantify, based on personal experience. It doesn’t seem like it is warming, but that is the value of recorded history and dated graphs. We are having a bit of a rain, wind and thunder storm here and the cat who wanted out, decided to say in. Oranges. Palm trees. Yes. More mosquitos and power outages? No. 

Oh, and in a few days they will start training flights out of Norfolk and Wallops Island, Virginia and we will be hearing sonic booms. Ah, the sound of Freedom.     

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