Las Vegas Massacre –The Story is Coming Apart

[Mark]

Abridgment of Ann Coulter’s  “Las Vegas Massacre –The Story is Coming Apart“ October 11, 2017

Reputedly serious news organizations are claiming that Stephen Paddock made a living playing video poker. That’s like claiming someone made a living smoking crack.

NBC News reports, with a straight face: “Las Vegas gunman earned millions as a gambler.“ A Los Angeles Times article is headlined, “In the solitary world of video poker, Stephen Paddock knew how to win.” The story says that Paddock’s gambling “was at least a steady income over a period of years.”

How do reporters imagine casino owners make a living? Any ideas on how all those glorious lobbies, lights, pools and fountains are paid for? How do they think Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn became billionaires if gambling is a winning proposition for people like Paddock – and therefore a losing proposition for the casinos?

The New York Times explained that the “top” video poker machines pay out 99.17 percent. It’s great that Paddock was only losing cents on the dollar, if true, but it’s still losing. The Times quickly explained that he could have more than made up his losses with all the “comps” – the free rooms, meals and “50-year-old port that costs $500 a glass,” as his brother Eric said.

Gamblers beating the house are not given $500 glasses of port. Refer to the profit/loss spreadsheet. And yet according to his brother Paddock was treated like royalty by the casinos. Which means he was losing.

Paddock’s game of choice was VIDEO POKER. That’s a computer programmed to ensure the house wins. Not all the time, but at least often enough to make casino owners multibillionaires. Anyone who plays video poker over an extended period of time will, by basic logic, eventually end up a net loser.

So why are the media insistent that Paddock was getting rich by playing video poker?

The most likely explanation is that the reporters and investigators are incompetent nitwits. But the changing accounts from law enforcement and preposterous lies from the press aren’t doing a lot to tamp down alternative theories of the crime.

Among the questions not being asked by our wildly incurious media:

•    Why would Paddock unload 200 rounds into the hallway at a security guard who was checking on someone else’s room before beginning his massacre?
•    How can it possibly take eight days to figure out when the alleged shooter checked into the hotel?
•    Why was Paddock wearing gloves if he was about to commit suicide?
•    Have any other solitary mass shooters ever had girlfriends?
•    If Paddock wasn’t making money on video poker—and he wasn’t — why would he be cycling millions of dollars through a casino, turning every dollar into, at best, 99 cents?

Maybe Paddock enjoyed video poker but they say he was making a living doing it.  Losing a percent or two on millions of dollars doesn’t make sense as an investment strategy but it does make sense as a money laundering operation.

And the illicit business that requires money to be laundered that leaps out at us in Paddock’s case is illegal gun sales. If true, it would not only explain the arsenal in his hotel room, but also raises the possibility of either an accomplice or different perpetrators altogether.

If this were a movie script, a terrorist would go to Paddock’s room on the pretense of buying guns, kill Paddock, commit the massacre, put his gunshot residue-covered gloves on Paddock’s dead hands and slip out of the room when the coast was clear.

According to the new timeline given by the Las Vegas police–pending a third revision – this is at least possible. The hallway was empty, except for a bleeding security guard down by the elevators, for at least two minutes after the shooting stopped. The stairwell was clear for more than half an hour. It also explains the gloves.

There’s no evidence for any of this but on the other hand there’s no evidence for the version the media are giving us. At least the movie script version doesn’t require us to pretend that Paddock was making “millions” from video poker.

 

[BaalChatzaf]

Gambling is legal in Nevada.  So if what's his face made money gambling,  so what?

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

37 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

So if what's his face made money gambling,  so what?

Bob,

Nobody makes a living playing video poker.

It's algorithmic and built right into the machines.

Play regularly and you lose over time.

If you want to believe the contrary, I just might have a nice bridge to sell you for cheap in NYC.  

Regular video poker play as a front is a great way to launder money, though...

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

Steve Wynn was asked if he knew of anyone beating the casino over time. Nope.

There is a way: if you're ever ahead (overall) quit and never come back. You can walk into a casino, get warmed up, then make one big bet that will pay off almost as much as you bet. Win or lose -- leave. No more gambling for you.

--Brant

[anthony]

Right, the so-called strategy for playing video poker (or any machines) is so much publicity fluff, with the payout percentage algorithmically fixed, long-term - and every casino table game (with the exception of player to player "live" poker ) has a built-in edge for the house too. (Around 1.5% on blackjack, if my memory serves me.) A money laundering scheme for illegal gun sales looks most probable. The more time goes by without the exhaustive search uncovering an apparent "motive", the more that Mark's "movie script" idea begins to look not impossible. If not Paddock, then whom? The most obvious answer is terrorists, but the see-no-evil PC media doesn't want to investigate that theory over-much. How terrible it would be to wrongly blame Islamist killers... for killing. It could hurt their feelings.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

William just posted an article from the Las Angeles Times entitled: In the solitary world of video poker, Stephen Paddock knew how to win. Until he didn't

That sounds like Paddock actually did make his living from video poker and the article at times slants in that direction. But it also hedges pretty hard:

Quote

Walton said he saw Paddock make some mistakes. He gave him poor advice on a hand once while the two were gambling next to each other at the Wynn Casino. Overall, he said, Paddock was a solid player “with some leaks” in his game.

Paddock, say some of those who’ve watched him play, seemed to be in it not to get rich so much as to enjoy the perks that go along with being a regular.

Anthony Curtis, a professional gambler who runs one of the authoritative guides to the Las Vegas casinos, the Las Vegas Advisor, said Paddock was what is known as a "comp hustler" — someone who plays well enough to get significant compensation in the form of suites, limos and food.

"These kind of players play for the complimentary services … "

Does that sound like how to get rich playing video poker?

My favorite quote was this:

Quote

The means with which to play at those levels may have been buoyed by $5 million in gambling income reported on his 2015 taxes, according to a report obtained by NBC last week. But gambling experts were also quick to point out that the $5 million doesn't say how much of that could've been lost as quickly as it was won.

Like I said, this is a perfect front for laundering money. 5 cool big ones made clean as a whistle with a bill of health from the IRS and everything and no need to mention initial investment, which could have been a penny for all anyone knows. 5 big clean ones popped right out of thin air from nothing. That's a nice place for money coming from less savory origins to go.

I can't claim this was the case. But the opportunity lines up nicely.

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

19 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Bob,

Nobody makes a living playing video poker.

It's algorithmic and built right into the machines.

Play regularly and you lose over time.

If you want to believe the contrary, I just might have a nice bridge to sell you for cheap in NYC.  

Regular video poker play as a front is a great way to launder money, though...

Michael

Let me put it this way.  Even IF he made his money gambling,  so what?

 

[Peter]

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 5:42 PM, BaalChatzaf said:

Let me put it this way.  Even IF he made his money gambling,  so what?

 

I remember articles and movies on black jack card counting. One system involved placing your feet in a way that "remembers" the cards played for you.

[william.scherk]

A video report from the New York Times ... "How the Las Vegas Gunman Planned a Massacre, in 7 Days of Video" ...

 

[Mark]

The title of the New York Times’s video is misleading.  The surveillance video shows how he got loads of guns into his hotel room, that’s all.  This doesn’t address the concerns expressed by Ann Coulter.

[Peter]

Too bad there aren't real mind readers like Mr. Spock. I can't understand why we are going thru such a violent time here, but I still think we need to bring back insane asylums and involuntary commitment. So many of these murderous creeps brag about what they are going to do, on the internet.