BaalChatzaf Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I just read that 33 percent of american oil refineries are now offline due to the tropical storm that struck Texas. Given a major reduction in the production of gasoline and other refined oil products we will be in for some hard times. Please see: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/business/energy-environment/harvey-energy-industry-texas.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merjet Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Is the $4.00 per gallon merely your personal opinion and $4.00 when? It wasn't in the NYT article. The futures market doesn't signal that magnitude of price rise (link). (The link shows wholesale prices, not retail prices. Also, the prices show normal backwardation.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 hours ago, merjet said: Is the $4.00 per gallon merely your personal opinion and $4.00 when? It wasn't in the NYT article. The futures market doesn't signal that magnitude of price rise (link). (The link shows wholesale prices, not retail prices. Also, the prices show normal backwardation.) We had similar refining problems with the last $4.00 gas episode which about 7 o 8 years ago. We are going to enjoy high prices for a while until the petroleum companies can get their refineries back to peek or near peek production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf DeVoon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Completely idiotic to think the New York Times is a credible source. Platts is the go-to authority, with Argus, Rigzone, and Offshore also-rans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Wolf DeVoon said: Completely idiotic to think the New York Times is a credible source. Platt's is the go-to authority, with Argus, Rigzone, and Offshore also-rans. Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read. NYT can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion quite accurately. I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews. That is doxa not fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf DeVoon Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Please don't be a putz. About 20% of capacity offline. https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/newyork/oil-factbox-texas-refineries-pipelines-ports-21824122 PADD1 (look it up) is supplied from North Dakota, Canada, and Brent traffic, in addition to pipelines from the Gulf Coast, worldwide glut of supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said: Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read. NYT can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion quite accurately. Does the NYT? --Brant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said: Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read. NYT can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion quite accurately. I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews. That is doxa not fact. Wolf knows more than a mere something about oil markets. --Brant gas prices in Tucson haven't even gone up 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said: Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read. NYT can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion quite accurately. I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews. That is doxa not fact. You have turned "doxa" into a euphemism for shit. By that standard your opinion is doxa. --Brant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said: Does the NYT? --Brant Yes. On purely factual stories NYT (along with the Wall St. Journal) is a publication of record. NYT has high quality vetting standards for factual stories. If you prefer the WSJ then read this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-largest-refinery-shuts-due-to-harvey-flooding-1504097098 It says pretty much the same as the NYT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said: Wolf knows more than a mere something about oil markets. --Brant gas prices in Tucson haven't even gone up 10% Then have him come to New Jersey to see the oil prices... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said: You have turned "doxa" into a euphemism for shit. By that standard your opinion is doxa. --Brant Doxa is opinion (as opposed to fact or a logically necessary proposition). In many contexts doxa is shit. An opinion presented as a fact ought to be regarded with suspicion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merjet Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said: Yes. On purely factual stories NYT (along with the Wall St. Journal) is a publication of record. NYT has high quality vetting standards for factual stories. If you prefer the WSJ then read this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-largest-refinery-shuts-due-to-harvey-flooding-1504097098 It says pretty much the same as the NYT. Since when is 1/5th pretty much the same as 1/3rd? WSJ 8/31: Tropical storm ... dropped about a foot of rain Tuesday night on the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, about 90 miles east of Houston, leading to refiners to shutdown facilities that account for more than 3 million barrels a day, or about a fifth of total U.S. capacity. NYT 8/28: “The hurricane did what terrorists could only dream of and take a third of U.S. refinery capacity off line for days on end,” said Michael E. Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 hours ago, merjet said: Since when is 1/5th pretty much the same as 1/3rd? WSJ 8/31: Tropical storm ... dropped about a foot of rain Tuesday night on the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, about 90 miles east of Houston, leading to refiners to shutdown facilities that account for more than 3 million barrels a day, or about a fifth of total U.S. capacity. NYT 8/28: “The hurricane did what terrorists could only dream of and take a third of U.S. refinery capacity off line for days on end,” said Michael E. Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. Close enough. The WSJ story came a bit later after a new damage report was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf DeVoon Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said: Close enough. The WSJ story came a bit later after a new damage report was issued. All Gulf refineries are in good working order, restarting. Ports are reopening. Relax. And for heavens sake, don't rely on UT academics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Wolf DeVoon said: All Gulf refineries are in good working order, restarting. Ports are reopening. Relax. And for heavens sake, don't rely on UT academics. What is a UT academic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 (edited) 18 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said: What is a UT academic? University of Texas? Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line. Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9. It's better quality for the addition of a cleaning agent and maybe some other stuff. Everybody gets their gas at one point in Tucson. The Shell and other brand-name guys dump their buckets of stuff into the tanker. Each tanker carries two grades, Reg. and Premium. The middle grade is a combination of the two mixed at the pump. Because I pumped cheap gas into my 1996 Toyota Tacoma, the four-cylinder engine sludged up at about 110,000 miles for not changing the oil frequently enough. It seems that somehow one affected the other. This was also a general problem with this engine. --Brant edit: make 117.9 217.9, etc. Edited September 4, 2017 by Brant Gaede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said: University of Texas? Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line. Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9. It's better quality for the addition of a cleaning agent and maybe some other stuff. Everybody gets their gas at one point in Tucson. The Shell and other brand-name guys dump their buckets of stuff into the tanker. Each tanker carries two grades, Reg. and Premium. The middle grade is a combination of the two mixed at the pump. Because I pumped cheap gas into my 1996 Toyota Tacoma, the four-cylinder engine sludged up at about 110,000 miles for not changing the oil frequently enough. It seems that somehow one affected the other. This was also a general problem with this engine. --Brant In New Jersey prices have jumped between 25 and 30 cents a gallon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said: In New Jersey prices have jumped between 25 and 30 cents a gallon. 20 cents in Tucson--maybe a few more. --Brant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merjet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 hours ago, Brant Gaede said: Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line. Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9. I don't understand those prices. Gus Buddy reports $2.15 to $2.29 (one exception) for regular gasoline around Tucson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The 1973 dollar is worth (under indexing) $5.51. Back in 1973 during the Arab oil boycott the price of gasoline in the Boston MA area went from $0.45 gallon to over $0.60 a gallon and their were long lines at the pumps. And at that time their was no reduction of the output of the refineries. The usual stories of oil ships waiting off shore deliver refined petroleum products abounded at the time as well as stories of the American oil companies storing their refined products to increase prices were told and retold. Gasoline prices as outrageous as they are now (mostly due to taxes on the gasoline) are the equivalent of just under $0.50 a gallon (adjusted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merjet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of gasoline at the pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaalChatzaf Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, merjet said: State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of gasoline at the pump. Tax and all, our petrol is cheap compared to Europe. Of course it shows. Our roads and bridges are in very poor condition. The only time the fix a bridge or overpass is when it collapses or is on the verge of collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 hours ago, merjet said: I don't understand those prices. Gus Buddy reports $2.15 to $2.29 (one exception) for regular gasoline around Tucson. Opps! Change my numbers by replacing the 117.9 with 217.9. Etc. CA gas is about 4.59/gal --Brant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 hours ago, merjet said: State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of gasoline at the pump. But not for CA. --Brant that special state with special refining requirements plus taxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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