Donald Trump

[merjet]

58 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Why not just pretend they have nothing to do with this topic?

Why don't you go to the Boeing plants where American workers are making airplanes, or a field of soybeans, and pretend it has nothing to do with this topic?

[Brant Gaede]

Trump might start a trade war with world-wide disastrous effects.

The world's economy is the china shop and he's the bull standing right outside the door.

The old economy as we remember it cannot be revived. But the new economy--not the present economy--based on lower, saner taxes and deregulation is quite possible.

Soon the present economy will be the old economy. Let's not end up pinning for it in return.

--Brant

pictures, like analogies, are not arguments merely illustrations of arguments--even "Guernica"

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

7 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

Trump might start a trade war with world-wide disastrous effects.

The world's economy is the china shop and he's the bull standing right outside the door.

Brant,

I respectfully disagree.

China is not going to leave the game. They are good at adapting. And Trump tends to drive a hard bargain, but he also tends to be fair.

The only people who are going to get their goodies taken away are some of the crony elites (not even all). Everybody else is going to be too busy making their own money to worry about them.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

43 minutes ago, merjet said:

Why don't you go to the Boeing plants where American workers are making airplanes, or a field of soybeans, and pretend it has nothing to do with this topic?

Merlin,

This is the exact reason Trump got elected. People were ignored who should not have been ignored. They woke up one day and realized they could not penetrate the attention of the ruling class, they were ignored, they were not taken seriously by the ones doing the international trade deals (and other globalism stuff), they were always out of the equations. Not the stuff that was taken from them--that part was re-managed, re-allocated, re-rationalized, it was just them that were removed and ignored. 

But they remembered they could vote. So they voted.

When you trash the livelihoods of entire communities to maintain an elitist system, then pretend those who got screwed are not part of the math, you are ignoring them. And, as this election shows, if you are going to screw and ignore a group of people, it's far better to do that to a minority than a majority if you want to keep power.

 

(I think it's better to not do it to anybody.  )

Anyway, if you want to see how this math works with these forgotten people in it, keep an eye on what Trump is doing. You will see how it all fits together soon enough.

I predict you, Merlin, will prosper more than before as this economy recovers. And you have my wishes for that outcome, too.

 

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

2 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

 

I predict you, Merlin, will prosper more than before as this economy recovers. And you have my wishes for that outcome, too.

 

Michael

Good, good. An empirically testable assertion. We shall see.....

[merjet]

16 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Good, good. An empirically testable assertion. We shall see.....

What sort of objective criteria do you have in mind?

[BaalChatzaf]

7 minutes ago, merjet said:

What sort of objective criteria do you have in mind?

Net income. Net worth.  One can evaluate one's economic state by using standard accounting methods. 

[merjet]

19 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

It's simple math.

If you add 10, but remove 10,000, that's an overall loss, not a gain.

It doesn't matter how many times you keep saying 10 were added.

(Just so you understand the metaphor, crony capitalism with China = +10 jobs, but due to plants closing, etc., it also = -10,000 jobs. I'm inventing the numbers, but I believe the ratio is about right. Of course, this might mean different things to the 10 who got a job as opposed to the 10,000 who lost their jobs--or the crony elites who pocketed the gross of the money in both cases. )

You were inventing alright. For Jan 2015 through Oct 2016 reported here the ratio of imports to exports is 4.15. That suggests only -41.5 jobs lost for every +10.  Hmm, -10,000 vs. -41.5.

"That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.

I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration -- and a very effective form of promotion."  - Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal

Also, the balance of trade is not the only thing that matters.
http://uschinatradewar.com/files/2016/03/Everything-Trump-Says-About-Trade-With-China-Is-Wrong.pdf

[merjet]

2 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Net income. Net worth.  One can evaluate one's economic state by using standard accounting methods. 

Net income. Change in net worth - added to savings + withdrawn from savings. My share of the nation debt, over $61,000 now.

[BaalChatzaf]

2 hours ago, merjet said:

Net income. Change in net worth - added to savings + withdrawn from savings. My share of the nation debt, over $61,000 now.

Neither you nor your 10 th generation descendant will ever pay that off. 

[KorbenDallas]

Carrier union boss, "he lied his ass off."  800 jobs were saved, not 1100---Trump hyperbole?

Sounds like a lot of employees at Carrier were mislead into thinking their jobs were saved:

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

11 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

Carrier union boss, "he lied his ass off."  800 jobs were saved, not 1100---Trump hyperbole?

Sounds like a lot of employees at Carrier were mislead into thinking their jobs were saved:

Korben,

It's never "media hyperbole" is it? It's always the media is honest and the media's target is a sleaze, right?

After all, we have the most honest press ever to happen to mankind.

(btw - Take a look at the media hyping this particular story. Notice any similarity with the same names that kept saying Trump would not win all during the primaries and election?  )

People should have learned by now with Trump (but they never learn) that it ain't over until it's over.

This so far:

Chuck Jones, who is President of United Steelworkers 1999, has done a terrible job representing workers. No wonder companies flee country!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2016

and this:

If United Steelworkers 1999 was any good, they would have kept those jobs in Indiana. Spend more time working-less time talking. Reduce dues

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2016

It sounds to me like the union boss bitching was running his workers straight into unemployment while he kept his own nest feathered. I wonder what else is behind the scenes...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

2 hours ago, merjet said:

You were inventing alright. For Jan 2015 through Oct 2016 reported here the ratio of imports to exports is 4.15. That suggests only -41.5 jobs lost for every +10.  Hmm, -10,000 vs. -41.5.

Merlin,

Is this the same government that calls a bunch of people who stop looking for work after years of not finding it while the government opens a few positions an "increase in employment"?

I love how people trust government employment numbers...

It makes it easy to ignore all those damn pictures...

 

3 hours ago, merjet said:

Also, the balance of trade is not the only thing that matters.
http://uschinatradewar.com/files/2016/03/Everything-Trump-Says-About-Trade-With-China-Is-Wrong.pdf

What else would one expect from a man who wants to call insider crony capitalism "free trade" and is a rabid anti-Trumper to boot? I think a lot is to be learned looking at who pays one's bills, for instance, where does Lincicome get his own money from? Oh... yeah... insider crony capitalism companies that do business in China...

 

Michael

[KorbenDallas]

22 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Korben,

It's never "media hyperbole" is it? It's always the media is honest and the media's target is a sleaze, right?

After all, we have the most honest press ever to happen to mankind.

(btw - Take a look at the media hyping this particular story. Notice any similarity with the same names that kept saying Trump would not win all during the primaries and election?  )

No MSM spin this time.  In the article I linked to above from WaPo, "A Carrier spokesman confirmed that 800 factory jobs once earmarked for Mexico are staying," yet Trump and Pence strutted around the factory saying they saved 1,100.

22 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

It sounds to me like the union boss bitching was running his workers straight into unemployment while he kept his own nest feathered. I wonder what else is behind the scenes...

Michael

Like $7,000,000 in incentives Trump/Pence gave Carrier to keep those 1,100 800 jobs?

[merjet]

2 hours ago, KorbenDallas said:

No MSM spin this time.  In the article I linked to above from WaPo, "A Carrier spokesman confirmed that 800 factory jobs once earmarked for Mexico are staying," yet Trump and Pence strutted around the factory saying they saved 1,100.

Correct. See about 15:45 into this video:  http://fox61.com/2016/12/01/how-did-donald-trump-get-utc-owned-carrier-to-stay/

 

[merjet]

19 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

I love how people trust government employment numbers...

where does Lincicome get his own money from? Oh... yeah... insider crony capitalism companies that do business in China

They were not employment numbers. The numbers were imports and exports ($millions) as I clearly said.

Do you have a bottomless pit of unsubstantiated slurs?

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

53 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

No MSM spin this time.

Korben,

You seem fine in claiming that. I'm going to wait and see some more...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I wonder about the glee with with people are bashing Trump over the Carrier thing.

They were all just fine with Carrier's plans before Trump intervened. At least I never heard a peep out of them. (So I take their concern about jobs lost with a HUGE grain of salt.)

I'm more concerned with all the jobs Trump did save, not the ones he couldn't (yet, or maybe have created or something--this is still not finished). Why?

I don't see anyone else doing this work.

But I do see a lot of people bashing Trump for doing it.

Michael

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

btw - Did anyone notice the 50,000 new jobs on the way from Japan that Trump helped negotiate?

Where's the media machine on that one?

I saw a perfunctory notice, but not oodles of pundits yapping, interviews with the little people who will benefit, feature articles, stats from experts, etc.

The media only does this stuff to smear Trump, not actually present important news.

At least the 50,000 new employees will think it's important...

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 hour ago, merjet said:

Do you have a bottomless pit of unsubstantiated slurs?

Merlin,

I am no friend to cronies who co-opt the freedom narrative.

Remember that old joke about knowing when a lawyer is lying because his lips are moving?

It's even worse for this kind of lawyer.

Michael

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Sometimes I disagree with Rush Limbaugh, but I am 100% on board with this:

Optimism for the Trump Boom

From the transcript:

Quote

Look, I know I'm going out on a limb saying so because it's really early and it's life.  I mean, there's all kinds of unexpected things that are gonna happen that nobody can predict.  But, I mean, just sitting here right now and digesting everything there is to digest, and if the trend that we see keeps going, I think we are primed for a genuine economic recovery that's going to lead to economic growth that millions and millions of people have never experienced in this country. People of a certain age are simply not old enough to have experienced it or were too young when one was happening. 

And I think people are gonna be shocked, people are gonna be stunned, especially after eight years of being told that the best days of America have already happened and that it's a new era of globalism and that we must manage this new position in the world of the United States, which is one of decline, and become a good corporate citizen. This idea of a superpower is not productive to the planet, it's destabilizing, United States is guilty, guilty of destroying the planet, destroying the climate, guilty of imposing itself on foreign countries, guilty of theft of resources.  

I mean, you name it.  This has been, for the last eight years at least, and for Millennials these are prime years of their lives.  You take a person 30 years old, 22 when Obama became inaugurated, these are formative years.  These are years that will tell them and provide a foundation for what they think life is.  They're gonna be shocked.  They're gonna be blown away by what's possible. And it could be revolutionary in terms of how the American people learn what they're able to learn about such things as economic growth and individual and corporate freedom and liberty and so forth.  

And the contrast between a very active, punitive government versus a very active and friendly government, 'cause I don't think this government's gonna get any smaller, not measurably.  Meaning we're not gonna get rid of cabinet agencies, but they're gonna get smaller if Trump has his way.  They're gonna be much less prominent.  They're going to be much less invasive. And to whatever extent they exist, they're going to side with the American people.  And that means in many ways siding with people that hire the American people and generate economic growth.  

. . .

... I think the opportunity for a stark change in attitude, in economics and just in a number of things, it's already on the move, it's already happening.  

You know that question that I cited to you when I knew the 2012 election was over. They had the exit polls at five o'clock, the question "cares about people like me" and it was Obama won that 81 to 19 over Romney. How do you think Trump would do on that question right now?  It would be off the charts.  And remember with Obama, with every failure, "Well, at least he's trying, at least he cares, at least he's trying."  

Do you think they're gonna afford Trump the same kind of forgiveness?  No way.  They're not even gonna give him the credit for trying.

. . .

The Democrat Party, it's obvious, only knows one way to win, and that is opposition research, and that is destroying the opponent.  The Democrat Party does not know -- and this last campaign showed it -- they have no idea how to go out and extol the virtues they represent and get people feeling good and voting for them.  The only thing they've got -- look at Hillary's campaign was Trump is not fit, Trump is unsuitable, Trump is a Nazi, Trump is a misogynist, Trump is a racist.  

They do not have an ounce of optimism in their substance, in their essence, in their existence.  And it's gonna be contrasted every day because these people are not getting it.  They are in obstinate refusal, denial of what they see.  And for me it is enjoyable as it can be to witness.

Yup.

 

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

2 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Sometimes I disagree with Rush Limbaugh, but I am 100% on board with this:

Optimism for the Trump Boom

From the transcript:

Yup.

 

Michael

I hope Trump does not fall in the same hole as did Ronald Reagan  who (with his party) delivered $1.75 worth of government  for ever $1.00  collected in taxes.   RWR's  Laffer Curve based strategy was a complete bust and it lead to the biggest increase in the deficit in U.S.  history.   RWR  was a Stealth New Dealer  in Republican Garb. 

Trump has talked about pumping up the military.  If he does he will have to cut somewhere else.  It is the only way he can do it without increasing the deficit. 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

1 hour ago, BaalChatzaf said:

If he does he will have to cut somewhere else.  It is the only way he can do it without increasing the deficit.

Bob,

I have become tired of saying the obvious, that when you make more money you can spend more money, so I'm just going to wait until people see it.

I used to think this was common sense, that everyone knows rich folks can buy more stuff than poor folks can and they don't even need credit if they have enough money, but apparently, grown adults no longer see this as true.

You're not the only one who doesn't understand it, either. This denial is pretty widespread.

I'm with Rush when he says people are "gonna be shocked. They're gonna be blown away by what's possible." 

What he means is that rich folks can do a lot more than poor folks. And since we are going to be rich, we are going to do great things, both individually and collectively as a country, without adding to any debt. Including the military...

On the contrary, I think the US is going to do like the rich folks do and pay off its debts.

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

4 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

 

I'm with Rush when he says people are "gonna be shocked. They're gonna be blown away by what's possible." 

Believed when seen....

[merjet]

13 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Did anyone notice the 50,000 new jobs on the way from Japan that Trump helped negotiate?

Where's the media machine on that one?

I saw a perfunctory notice, but not oodles of pundits yapping, interviews with the little people who will benefit, feature articles, stats from experts, etc.

The media only does this stuff to smear Trump, not actually present important news.

At least the 50,000 new employees will think it's important...

You didn't look very hard. I searched Google News for {Japanese investor Softbank} and there were many hits. You also swallowed whole Trump's self-promoting hype. This young lady on CNN is sharp enough to not jump to unwarranted conclusions. She realizes that 50,000 new jobs may not be the case at all. What if it is merely an acquisition? That suggests zero new jobs. It might even mean fewer jobs in the short run. Acquirers often "clean house" to make a business more efficient. How many new jobs did SoftBank create when it acquired Sprint? SoftBank acquired Sprint on July 10, 2013. Pre-acquisition to the most recently reported quarter, Sprint's revenues fell about 10%. Oh my. That suggests to me job losses more than job gains.

"Masayoshi Son, the brash billionaire who controls Sprint Corp., ... told reporters he planned to “invest into the new startup companies in the United States.” It would be difficult to create 50,000 jobs entirely by investing in startups, which generally employ few workers. Sprint employs about 30,000 people and has cut jobs to combat losses." WSJ.