Selene Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ground rules:1. All predictions must be posted by 5 PM Monday February 1st, 20162. You can pick as many candidates as you choose and the percentages they will receive, or, just one (1) with their percentage.3. Remember that the 15% rule applies at each location. That means that if a candidate does not achieve 15% of that caucuses participants, they would have to choose another candidate, or, your choice will not be counted.4. A caucus is to begin at 7 PM CST.5. There are 1600 1700+ Caucus sites in the 99 Counties in Iowa.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I like the system Bret Baer uses. You get a hundred poker chips. Split them up about five ways from most to least likely to win. Remember it isn't winner take all until March 1st. I just cannot say that Cruz will squeak it out over Trump by one percent but that is what I wish for.Donald Turnip 28, Cruz Control 23, Rubio's Cube 15, Kit Carson 10, Randoid Paul 5, Lou, Big Boys don't cry Christie 3 and most of the rest garner two percent in the Real Clear Politics poll. Let’s see how the experts do.I will go with my heart and say Cruz 25, Trump 25, Rubio, 20, Carson 10.Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9thdoctor Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I don't like the way that cat is looking at me. But although it's impossible that the *candidates* could all lose, I think it's a foregone conclusion that *we* all will lose. To quote the sentient bat in the animated film, "Anastasia" - "this can only lead to tears." REB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Oh, and my prediction is that Trump will definitely get the largest number of Iowa GOP delegates - and that Bernie will nose out Hillary and get most (but not all) of the Dem delegates from Iowa. If it were winner-take-all, which it's not, I'd simply say Trump and Bernie (though it's going to be close between him and Hillary).I like Peter's breakdown of percentages. I think he's called them in the right order of vote percentages. Paul may nose out Carson for fourth.REB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 So far, Peter is the only entrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 In 2012:121, 501 caucus votes cast.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#/media/File:Iowa_Republican_Presidential_Caucuses_Election_Results_by_County,_2012.svgThe Donald got 5 write in votes! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't have stats in my prediction. Since I understand it's not winner take all delegates, I predict Trump will get a hefty majority, not a barely-over-the-top majority.Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 So far, Peter is the only entrant.Oh, OK - here are my predictions:Trump 46%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 25%Sanders 55%, Clinton 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 So far, Peter is the only entrant.Oh, OK - here are my predictions:Trump 46%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 25%Sanders 55%, Clinton 45%Thanks Roger.However, the first 46/29/25 is mathematically impossible.It assumes that the other ten candidates will get zero votes.A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Duplicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 My sentimental favourite is Ted Cruz, born in Calgary. He would have turned out just fine if his daddy hadn't cashed in his green card, and stayed north of the forty-ninth. He could have ended up mayor of Calgary, even if he had gone all born-again, since Calgary is tolerant enough to re-elect the brown-eyed Muslim in charge there. I expect him to fade in the Iowa breakout, however. His 'juice' is not quite the full match for Iowan desires.Trump will win a plurality of the delegates, I think roughly in the forty-eight to fifty-three percent range. If the GOP had the preference grouping and staged voting procedures of the Democrats in Iowa, I would expect roughly the same thing plurality. This is based on the ballotage and the rules Adam refers to ... in a representative precinct. so if the votes as cast split out this way: A: 33, B: 29, C: 16, D: 14, E: 4, F: 2, G: 1, H: 1 ...Then the tricky part of apportioning those hundred votes at that precinct. To simplify, remove the votes of D to H, and apportion the now 'missing' votes of the hundred to the three who made it past the cut-off, A, B and C.So, when I say a plurality, I mean of the secret GOP ballot votes out of a hundred. I see Trump more or less crushing B/Cruz, with reapportioned percentages going from the ballot's 33/26/CDEFGH% to 49/26/25%Thus, I think Trump will smash his way to victory over B, presumably Cruz, and only one other contender C, presumably Rubio, will share the delegates. The hat is always tipped to the first-place finisher, so that a mere plurality always turns into a majority in a three-contender apportionment. If, by happenstance there is a fourth finisher -- presumably Carson -- then my mix of percentages of delegates is going to be off, and the Trump plurality reduced. Even then, Trump a first place finisher is more or less guaranteed forty percent off the bat.You skimmed all that, so ... numbers of delegates and percentages. Trump: 49%Cruz: 26%Rubio: 25%Now, you might think that this means simply 16 delegates for Trump and B and C split the rest. No so -- because of the built-in toward the first finisher. Thus, I believe Trump will end up with:20Yup, a crushing majority of delegates, 2 in 3. With this crucial first win, he is positioned to cruise all the way to the big excitement in March primaries, and then a storming to the convention. If he can maintain even 40% of delegates from Iowa to the SEC primaries, he is pretty much locked in for the nomination.I rate Cruz much lower than three weeks ago, mainly on seeing how much he was hurt by the Canuckistan birth issue. I will still pine in my heart for a come-from-behind blitzkrieg later on, but ya gotta be hard-nosed in this business. If he does not win Iowa, which he won't, he will not win the nomination, full stop.Trumpasms all round, I would say. I do hope Carson polls above cut-off. It would add a little jam to the week until New Hampshire. \-- it is so weird to think that I am going to record four freaking hours of CNN Iowa Hoopla tomorrow.My chat site is halfway through construction. See the patchy mess here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 So far, Peter is the only entrant.Oh, OK - here are my predictions:Trump 46%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 25%Sanders 55%, Clinton 45%Thanks Roger.However, the first 46/29/25 is mathematically impossible.It assumes that the other ten candidates will get zero votes.A...I disagree. Please refer to William's post and/or any of the pieces that explain how the caucus process works. It's not like the regular primaries. In particular, note how candidate support below 15% is reassigned (by individual choice) to one of the groups with 15% or more.OK, since I'm projecting that only three candidates will get over 15% support at the caucuses, only three percentages will be available, and thus only three percentages are relevant. (You will not get a raw vote percentage and count for *all* of the candidates. That's not how the counting works.)So, I'm also saying that only 3 of the candidates are going to get any delegates. Trump will get about 13 delegates, and of the remaining 15 (or so?), Rubio will get 8 and Cruz will get 7. (William thinks Trump's take-home will be about 3/4 of the delegates, rather than about half.)As for the "popular vote" (the tally that binds the delegates to represent the proportion for each candidate), I'm saying no one else than those three gets above 14%, so all their support is shuffled over to the main three.If you want a raw vote breakdown by percentage of the ones making the cut, I'd say it will come out approximately as William projected, but a slightly lower percentage for Trump and Rubio slightly higher than Cruz, but both way behind Trump. In other words, like I said before: Trump 46%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 25%. Mathematically quite possible, once the shuffling is done. But William may be more accurate about Trump's victory margin, and Cruz's coming in second.(In 2012, Ron Paul got 22 delegates and Mitt Romney got 6. I'm projecting a three-way split this time, not two-way. I could be wrong - there may be one more, probably Carson, who ekes out a delegate or two, but I don't think so. I think his caucus results will be below 15%.)REB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think Trump is ethanol whoring his way to an Iowa victory. Won't work in New Hampshire. But if he wins in NH he's odds on favorite to be the eventual nominee, which would be much better than a third-party run ensuring a Democratic victory in November. Essentially, he's the devolution of Nelson Rockefeller. Watch out what you wish for for you're likely to get it and get it good and hard.--BrantI weep for my country, but it's my country, cry or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Bill and Roger make excellent points about delegates.However, for my purposes, I want to keep this out of the deep weeds and just predict the voter percentages cast tonight.I should have been clearer.Let's just stick to the voter percentages and this way everyone can participate.A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think Trump is ethanol whoring his way to an Iowa victory.Man, that's corny...(You can groan now...)Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think Trump is ethanol whoring his way to an Iowa victory.Man, that's corny...(You can groan now...) MichaelIt's not an accident that "crony" and "corny" are spelled with the same letters. REBthe "E" does not stand for "ethanol" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I like the system Bret Baer uses. You get a hundred poker chips. Split them up about five ways from most to least likely to win. Remember it isn't winner take all until March 1st. I just cannot say that Cruz will squeak it out over Trump by one percent but that is what I wish for.Donald Turnip 28, Cruz Control 23, Rubio's Cube 15, Kit Carson 10, Randoid Paul 5, Lou, Big Boys don't cry Christie 3 and most of the rest garner two percent in the Real Clear Politics poll. Let’s see how the experts do.I will go with my heart and say Cruz 25, Trump 25, Rubio, 20, Carson 10.Peter(Sigh.) OK, here are my percentage guesses:Trump 30 Rubio 21 Cruz 19 Paul 11Christie 7Carson 7the rest total 5.Hillary 49Bernie 48O'Malley the Alley Cat 3Others (?) 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KorbenDallas Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Trump 27, Rubio 19, Cruz 17, Paul 10, Bush 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is the actual field...Bush CarsonChristieCruz FiorinaHuckabeeKasichPaulRubio Santorum Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I have never had less confidence in my political calls than this one:Bush 3%Carson 11% 9%Christie 4%Cruz 23% 25%Fiorina 2%Huckabee 1%Kasich 3 %Paul 3%Rubio 14%Santorum 4%Trump 31%Uncommitted 1 %_________________________________Sanders 49 %Evita 45%O’Malley 1%Uncommitted 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 2 HOURS left to 5 PM ESTAnyone can make a final "Tweak" of their choices until 7 PM EST due to Climate Change...only if they made a choice by 5 PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 GROSS PERCENTAGES OF IOWA CAUCUS VOTES TRUMP CRUZ RUBIO CARSON PAUL KASICH BUSH CHRISTIE FIORINA REALITY 45,352 24% 51,527 28% 43,037 24% 17,356 9% 8,455 4% 5,230 3% Reb! 30 19 21 7 11 7 Adam 31 23/25 14 11/9 3 3 3 4 2 Peter Taylor 28 23 15 10 5 3 WSS 33 29 16 14 4 2 1 1` 1 Korben 27 17 19 10 7 MSK gazillions DELEGATES -- percentage / delegates TRUMP CRUZ RUBIO CARSON PAUL REALITY 5? 20? 5? - - Reb! 46% 15 29% 7 25% 8 0 0 Adam 13 8 7 Peter Taylor WSS 49%/20 26%/7 25%/3 0 0 MSK Majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Oops sorry BillBush 3%Carson 11% 9%Christie 4%Cruz 23% 25%Fiorina 2%Huckabee 1%Kasich 3 %Paul 3%Rubio 14%Santorum 4%Trump 31%Uncommitted 1 %_________________________________Sanders 49 %Evita 45%O’Malley 1%Uncommitted 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 This might help...Here's where the parties diverge. A Republican caucus is odd but simple, a peanut-butter-and-tuna-fish combination of a normal election and a PTA meeting. At nearly 900 caucus sites, voters will gather, then hear speeches from whichever campaigns have precinct captains assigned to whip up votes. (Presidential candidates can show up and do this for themselves, in one of the most intimate examples of democracy in all of politics.) Then they'll write their choices on paper and hand them in.The Dems...By David Weigel February 1 at 11:07 AMThey're almost here. (Dave Weaver, File/Associated Press)Tonight, a few hundred thousand Iowa residents will gather in a couple thousand caucus sites and finally, finally kick-start the presidential nomination process. It's been 44 years since the first presidential caucuses that mattered, and 40 years since both parties held them. And yet, for the 315.8 million Americans who do not live in Iowa — and for the slightly smaller millions who live in primary, not caucus, states — the process perpetually needs explaining.That's fair enough. Here's an explainer.What time do the Iowa caucuses start? At 7 p.m. Central time, across the state. Expect the cable TV countdown clocks to start much sooner.Campaign 2016 Email UpdatesGet the biggest election stories in your inbox.When will we know the winner? In 2008, the caucuses were called for then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee ® by 8:30 p.m. Central. Both men won by nine points, and early counts matched the exit polls. In 2012, the late surge of former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) forced an election night tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and the networks (and more importantly, front-page editors) only seemed able to call a winner after midnight. That call was wrong. What looked like an eight-vote victory for Romney had been scrambled when eight precincts, with a total of 298 missing votes, missed the count. Santorum had won, a fact that was not reported until 16 days later.Short answer: This year? Probably by 10 or 11 p.m. Central. (You'll be able to see maps here.)Here's how the Iowa caucuses workPlay Video1:07On Feb. 1, Iowans will be the first to cast votes in 2016 for the candidates they want to be their party's nominee for president. Critics say the process is complicated and undemocratic. Here's how it works. (Sarah Parnass/The Washington Post)How is a caucus different from a primary? The answer differs depending on which party you're asking about. Instead of heading to one of Iowa's 1,681 precincts and pulling a lever, voters will head to a caucus site that may toss several precincts together. Instead of seeing their votes tabulated by the state elections office, they'll see them reported to the state parties, which will in turn report them to the news media.Here's where the parties diverge. A Republican caucus is odd but simple, a peanut-butter-and-tuna-fish combination of a normal election and a PTA meeting. At nearly 900 caucus sites, voters will gather, then hear speeches from whichever campaigns have precinct captains assigned to whip up votes. (Presidential candidates can show up and do this for themselves, in one of the most intimate examples of democracy in all of politics.) Then they'll write their choices on paper and hand them in.The Democratic caucus process is more complicated. When they show up at one of the 1,100-odd sites, voters will be asked to gather in sections designated for the candidates. They will be counted. If one candidate fails to get at least 15 percent of voters in his corner, they are released, and caucus captains for the surviving candidates can personally lobby and answer questions, enticing them to join up. After that, delegates are assigned based on the support for each candidate.It sounds confusing, and it is. For starters, the number of delegates for each precinct will be assigned based on Democratic turnout in that precinct from the last two elections. (There is no raw vote total released, only projections of how many Democrats turned out.) If there's a massive surge of voters in, say, an Iowa City precinct, if there's a massive fall-off in a rural precinct, it does not matter — the same number of delegates are at stake. This might be best illustrated by the live recording C-SPAN did from one key caucus site in 2008.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/23/heres-how-the-iowa-caucuses-work/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_iowa-caucuses-1230pm:homepage/story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now