When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 24, 2020
If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done.
It's a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, "rationality", subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it.