New Q poll, TX Senate, Cruz 49% O’Rourke 43%. May 30 poll had Cruz ahead by larger 50-39%. This is one of the 2 or 3 races I’m most asked about. Cruz is certainly the favorite but there is D upset potential. Most upsets never happen—but a few shockers every election year.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) August 1, 2018