3 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

I am calling Florida for Trump. I know it's early, with only 40-odd percent of the vote in (via vote-by-mail, or in-person early voting), but the signs of a squeaker are there:  a tonne of attention from both campaigns and respective parties, fearsome GOTV efforts by some very capable machines, and a suite of polling results "just in" -- along with some excellent in-the-weeds reporting of wonk-fest details.

Using the peripheral activities of the political party operative to update your estimate  show that you are  a Bayesian   at heart.   Good show. 

A person who adhered to the frequency theory of probability and statistics would require at least 30 Florida races under the prevailing conditions to either keep his null hypotheses (Trump wins)  or rejecting it and taking the alternative hypothesis (Hillary wins). 

19 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Using the peripheral activities of the political party operative to update your estimate  show that you are  a Bayesian   at heart.   Good show. 

A person who adhered to the frequency theory of probability and statistics would require at least 30 Florida races under the prevailing conditions to either keep his null hypotheses (Trump wins)  or rejecting it and taking the alternative hypothesis (Hillary wins). 

Ah, you are a subjectivist. And the issues are way more complicated than your overly simplistic portrayal. Interpretations of Probability.

24 minutes ago, merjet said:

Ah, you are a subjectivist. And the issues are way more complicated than your overly simplistic portrayal. Interpretations of Probability.

The election is in 6 days.

--Brant

may the best woman win

11 hours ago, merjet said:

Ah, you are a subjectivist. And the issues are way more complicated than your overly simplistic portrayal. Interpretations of Probability.

all probability is subjective.  Even t he frequentist view makes reference to equal likelihood.   Right there!  Subjective.  

Di Finetti and Jaynes  advanced the view that prior probabilities are established subjectively,  in part at least.  But  updating the probabilities  to posterior probabilities  by Bayes Theorem is a  strict formal and mathematical  processes. 

Bob, can you explain what the New York references are here? (this is Number 3 on Trump Video Bingo today). "But there's something about that fellow that looks a bit schmeery."  Warning: crude language.

12 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Bob, can you explain what the New York references are here? (this is Number 3 on Trump Video Bingo today). "But there's something about that fellow that looks a bit schmeery."  Warning: crude language.

 

I had no idea that Jon Stuart's full name is John Stuart  Leibowitz.    Live another day,  learn another new thing.

Schmear.  Yiddish for laying it on thick or spreading it on.  

I'm calling Florida for Clinton.  People are saying (Nov 4th) that she isn't getting as many black voters compared to 2012, but I'm predicting we'll see a huge Hispanic voter turnout that will win her the state.

Here is some county by county polling for November 2nd from Shareblue's Benchmark (thanks to William for the resource):

Last Friday (October 28th) was the day Comey reopened Hillary's e-mail case, and the only change was for Duval (top right, 2nd county down), it was blue on Friday before the Comey effect.  An important thing to notice is Dem counties are many of Florida's main population centers: Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami, St. Petersburg, Tampa, then Tallahassee and Gainesville.  Did any other counties flip since Wednesday?  Nope, the map is the same:

So only Duval changed from the Comey effect.  Look at Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties (the solid blue counties bottom right).  These three have a high Hispanic voter population, so how is early voter turnout looking for those counties?  Steve Schale is a political strategist in Florida and provides in-depth numbers and analysis for the state.  Here is what he's said recently:

Schale is confirming my suspicion.  I live in Florida and during the 2012 election I was friends with who pollsters would categorize as 'educated Hispanic'.  They had friends, both with college education and without, and the general consensus was they disliked Romney's 47% and liked Obama's 2012 amnesty.  My friends voted for Obama---oh, did I mention they were conservatives?  Most of their friends, conservative or liberal, voted for Obama, or changed their vote to Obama.

Back to 2016, November 3rd from Politico, "Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide"

MIAMI — Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 perccent to 19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.

Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban-Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49 percent to 42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71 percent to 20 percent. The overall margin of error for the poll is 3.5 points.

“These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”

“The share of the Hispanic vote is growing every election and this will be the third presidential election in Florida where Hispanics trend heavily against the GOP,” Amandi said. “And if that continues, it could turn Florida into the next California in future presidential elections, a blue anchor state.”

Without Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes, Republicans generally can’t win the White House.

[...]

If the poll is right and if Hispanics cast 16 percent of the ballots in an election with 72 percent overall turnout, Clinton would build a margin of 437,000 more votes than Trump.

So far, Florida Hispanics have cast about 14 percent of the nearly 4.9 million early and absentee votes as of Thursday morning — far outpacing their 2012 share of the vote five days before Election Day.

So how about nationwide?  November 4th, from TalkingPointsMemo.com, "Latino Early Vote Surges From Florida to Nevada"

Latino voters are already showing up to vote this election and could cast ballots in larger numbers than Democrats saw in recent elections.

On a call with reporters Friday, Latino Decisions– a polling group focused on Hispanic voting patters– said that Latino turnout is on track to make history next week.

On the call, Gabriel Sanchez, a principal at Latino Decisions, pointed to early voting trends that show Latino early voting is up 100 percent in Florida, 60 percent in North Carolina and up 25 percent in Colorado and Nevada.

Sanchez said at this point, Latino Decisions is projecting that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote on or before Tuesday– a major increase from 2012 numbers when the group estimated 11.2 million voted.

[...]

"Her lead over Donald Trump was larger than Obama's over Romney for the entire year," Sanchez said.

Sanchez argued that higher Latino turnout seems to be fueled by two things. First, he said Latino voters desperately want to reject Trump's disparaging rhetoric against Latinos, which has been a major piece of his campaign. Second, Sanchez said Latino Decisions has seen a steady increase in support for Hillary Clinton.

Here is some of the rhetoric:

In case you missed the source of #TacoTrucksOnEveryCorner → https://t.co/4vnpZY2cQw #inners #reiders

— AM Joy w/Joy Reid (@amjoyshow) September 2, 2016

Happy #CincoDeMayo! The best taco bowls are made in Trump Tower Grill. I love Hispanics! https://t.co/ufoTeQd8yA pic.twitter.com/k01Mc6CuDI

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2016

Hispanic voters aren't voting for Trump, they are voting against him and in large numbers.  Polling and early voting numbers are showing this, and one of the main reasons is his rhetoric.  I predict Trump will lose Florida, and without Florida he loses the election.

4 hours ago, KorbenDallas said:

On 11/1/2016 at 9:52 AM, william.scherk said:

On 10/30/2016 at 2:36 PM, william.scherk said:

Here is a plausible victory map for Donald Trump:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

I am calling Florida for Trump.

I'm calling Florida for Clinton. 

Hmmmm.   Korben's work  makes my plausible map not as plausible.  Back to the lab.  I was going to come here and revisit my Colorado for Trump because it isn't looking quite as firm for him as I thought, according to the updated RCP averages. But that just means it won't be that state that helps make up the possible loss of  Florida's electoral college votes.

It made me want to check something. Where were the polls around this time last time around, in Florida? Where was the race?  Here's a snapshot from [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html]

Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Wrong!  

So what is the (could be wrong, or wronger than this one above) current estimation of the RCP folks right now in the Sunshine State?

Even with Colorado switched to red, my new plausible map looks like this:

I found the election results of Florida from 2012, the county map:

Looks eerily similar to the polling map posted earlier.  I checked Wikipedia to see how Romney lost FL in 2012, here is the analysis (italics and bold are mine):

Obama won the state and its 29 electoral votes on Election Day by a margin of 0.88%, down from the 2.82% margin in 2008. Florida was the closest race in the country at the presidential level. Throughout the night, Obama and Romney exchanged the lead, but the networks avoided calling the state for Obama until November 10 because long lines in the larger urban areas of the state meant that the vote count was delayed.

According to exit polling, Obama won 95% of the African-American vote (13% of voters), 60% of Latino voters (up 3 points from 2008 and 17% of all voters), and 50% among Independents (who accounted for 33% of all voters). Mitt Romney won white voters by 24 percent. In addition, both Democratic and Republican strategists agreed that the President’s ground game and early voting leads played a huge role in such a tight race. Despite laws that curbed early voting, more than 4 million Floridians cast a ballot before Election Day (almost 50% of all voters), and reports showed that Obama was leading by about 104,000 among those voters.

The political geography of Florida is largely divided in thirds: South Florida (around the Miami metropolitan area) is heavily Democratic, North Florida (the Florida Panhandle, and the Jacksonville metropolitan area) is heavily Republican outside of Tallahassee and Gainesville, while Central Florida is a “swing” area of the state, where Democrats have made inroads in recent years.

Mirroring the results of the 2008 presidential election in Florida, Obama dominated South Florida, winning Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties by comfortable margins, and actually increased his vote share in Miami-Dade and Broward counties from 2008. However, Romney's performance in Palm Beach County was notable considering he is the first Republican presidential candidate in over a decade to receive over 40% of the county's vote. Obama’s gains in South Florida have been attributed to increasing his vote share among Cuban Americans, a large demographic in and around Miami who have reliably voted Republican, from 35% in 2008 to 48% against Romney's 52% in 2012. Combined with his large margins of victory among non-Cuban Hispanics in the state, Arian Campo-Flores at the Wall Street Journal noted that, “Together, both trends are accelerating a realignment of the state's Latino vote, from once solidly Republican to now reliably Democratic.”^[26]

Although Obama lost large swaths of North Florida, he was able to keep the margins relatively close along the Eastern Seaboard. He lost to Romney in Duval County, anchored by Florida’s largest city, Jacksonville, by only 3%, and Volusia County, home to Daytona Beach, by less than 2%. Where the state tipped into the Obama column was in Central Florida, the site of enormous growth in the last two decades. Obama was able to deliver big wins in the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas, where George W. Bush won in 2004. In the former, Obama carried Orange County (which includes Orlando) by 19 points and Osceola County near Orlando by a 24-point margin (Bush won it in 2004 52%-47%). In both counties, he was able to tap into a growing Puerto Rican community, which overwhelmingly broke his way.

In the Tampa Bay region, Obama once again carried Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, by a 6-point margin, receiving over 13,000 more votes than he won in 2008. Obama also won Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, by a 52%-46.5% margin. Bush had narrowly carried the county by about 0.1% in 2004. In all, Obama won the three largest counties in Central Florida – Hillsborough, Orange, and Pinellas – while keeping his losing margins low in other populous counties – Polk, Seminole, and Manatee County.

Here is how Obama did it in 2008, and the link to the Wikipedia analysis for FL in 2008: 

Will people who favor Trump have be gripped by a moment of regret just before their mark their ballot or pull the lever?  If anyone but Hillary were running as the Democrat nominee that could very well happen.  But for those voters who are just "on the edge" for Trump,  Hillary's  butt  ugliness will determine  their pro-Trump vote.   Hillary is Dreadful.   Back in 2008  Obama a superficial attractiveness that assured his election.  Whatever else was wrong with Candidate Obama,  moral ugliness  was not one of his wrongs.  There may have been reasons to vote against Obama  but there were reasons to vote for him.   Not so with Hillary.  For the majority of pro-Hillary voters the ONLY reason they are voting for Hillary is that she is not Trump.   

Trump is butt ugly, but for some that is a positive.  Trump is clearly not a "typical"  candidate.   I am voting for Trump, for example,  for much the same reason that I own a SCION XB.  Ugliness does have its attractions....

19 hours ago, KorbenDallas said:

Hispanic voters aren't voting for Trump, they are voting against him and in large numbers.  Polling and early voting numbers are showing this, and one of the main reasons is his rhetoric.  I predict Trump will lose Florida, and without Florida he loses the election.

I can see your reasoning clearly, but I am still under the Trump spell.  Knowing that 'all polls are wrong' (in varying ways and degrees) means that a whole state race may be mis-called (as with 2012) by the forecasts, models and averages. But, of course, you only know afterwards which particular race was 'wronged' and how.

So, here, I am going to give Trump Florida by fraction-magic. I am just going to edge him over Clinton, despite the early-vote intelligence, despite the polling and aggregates, despite Nhate's odds.

But look at this. All that colouring Florida red gets me is Nevada.  Whither Nevada?

Yeah. He edges out in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and grabs half of Maine's two EC votes.  But but but, but, if Clinton edges him with a surge of Hispanic support, Nevada finishes his 2016 hopes.

Which makes me think I have to watch the election returns in three stages. Starting with the first returns from the east. 

-- so, between 7 and 8 Eastern we will have had initial counts from my 'Go Red' states: Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida. My Trump needs every one of those to get to 264. 

So, if by 8:45ish  Eastern or so everything falls into line with my simulation, I can actually call the most important Eastern states. If Mr Trump wins Florida without triggering recounts and delay -- wins solidly -- then I will be chewing the inside of my mouth until 10 pm Eastern, when Nevada returns begin to be posted. 

Here is Mr Trump's last big rally in Vegas. He is scheduled to be back in Washoe County today.  He is fighting hard for what he needs.

 Oh, and there is this.  The hottest invitation in town. 

You might as well predict by flipping a coin as looking at all these past election results, which is whistling past the graveyard. One state here and two states there. What if it's seven states here and one there? Or eight and none?

--Brant

1 hour ago, Brant Gaede said:

2 hours ago, william.scherk said:

But look at this. All that colouring Florida red gets me is Nevada.  Whither Nevada?

Yeah. He edges out in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and grabs half of Maine's two EC votes.  But but but, but, if Clinton edges him with a surge of Hispanic support, Nevada finishes his 2016 hopes.

You might as well predict by flipping a coin as looking at all these past election results, which is whistling past the graveyard.

I don't know which 'you' Brant is talking to, but the point is a good one, within rational limits. Which is more rational, flipping coins, or examining present 'early-voting' trends?  Which is more likely to give a reliable prediction?

The past election results are benchmarks.  The electoral college state-by-state maps from Romney-Obama 2012 show just what combinations can tilt the 2016 results to either Clinton or Trump. 

I have shown a few examples with maps of how the final totals could add up. 

I'd be happy with an example from you, Brant.

Quote

One state here and two states there. What if it's seven states here and one there? Or eight and none?

What if there are seven pixies? Or eight? Which pixies will vote which states out of Deep Blue?

In other words, one can assign rough probabilities. Some state races you may think are on a knife-edge, and that might match with my mental model here and there. But I don't' know, since you don't expose your detailed or coin-toss prediction to us yet. I have no idea how you sense the winds in this last few days of the contest.

Why not put your guesses or feelings in play, too, Brant?  It's not like the wrong prediction will lead to anyone being taken to the woodshed, here.

Eg, go to 270towin.com and have some fun. This is the map up at their site just now. It gives lots of room for surprises, errors-in-polling, wrong-guesses, 'hidden voters,' and such like.

What else can we do but call it like we see it?

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

You'll get nothing from me, William. I really have no idea what is going to happen Tuesday. It's either close or a landslide, Illery or Donald.

I do know Illery can get elected and sworn in but qua President she'll be nothing. Most of the country will turn its back on her, including many who voted for her when they shamefully realize they voted in someone guilty of gross criminality if not treason. Of course, most of her voters don't now care about that and won't later on.

--Brant

voted for Trump--and I haven't voted for a President in decades (or I hope my memory totally fails me)

psychologically unable to be a libertarian anarchist, but if it looks like shit and stinks like shit it's the US government

1 hour ago, Brant Gaede said:

voted for Trump...

Woo hoo!

Michael

1 hour ago, Brant Gaede said:

You'll get nothing from me, William.

Fair enough. I don't think you get much from my output, either. Especially if your prediction is pretty much 'anything' can happen (victory, squeaker win, squeaker loss, schlonging).

Since you are basically saying that any and all predictions are crap, that leaves you in an epistemic fog. I bear in mind that we have in common an Objectivish attachment to reason, if not to Randian-style good cognitive housekeeping.

21 hours ago, william.scherk said:

I can see your reasoning clearly, but I am still under the Trump spell.  Knowing that 'all polls are wrong' (in varying ways and degrees) means that a whole state race may be mis-called (as with 2012) by the forecasts, models and averages. But, of course, you only know afterwards which particular race was 'wronged' and how.

So, here, I am going to give Trump Florida by fraction-magic. I am just going to edge him over Clinton, despite the early-vote intelligence, despite the polling and aggregates, despite Nhate's odds.

But look at this. All that colouring Florida red gets me is Nevada.  Whither Nevada?

Yeah. He edges out in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and grabs half of Maine's two EC votes.  But but but, but, if Clinton edges him with a surge of Hispanic support, Nevada finishes his 2016 hopes.

Which makes me think I have to watch the election returns in three stages. Starting with the first returns from the east. 

-- so, between 7 and 8 Eastern we will have had initial counts from my 'Go Red' states: Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida. My Trump needs every one of those to get to 264. 

So, if by 8:45ish  Eastern or so everything falls into line with my simulation, I can actually call the most important Eastern states. If Mr Trump wins Florida without triggering recounts and delay -- wins solidly -- then I will be chewing the inside of my mouth until 10 pm Eastern, when Nevada returns begin to be posted. 

Here is Mr Trump's last big rally in Vegas. He is scheduled to be back in Washoe County today.  He is fighting hard for what he needs.

 Oh, and there is this.  The hottest invitation in town. 

 

 

Nearer My God  to Thee,  Nearer to Thee.....

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Woo hoo!

Michael

I think theres something to be said about context here. There are instances when a vote for Trump is not a vote against Clinton.

Take DelMarVa. Two dark blue states and one light blue. Going going goonnn....to Clinton.

I will track the vote until the late hours of polling stations open hours. If as Real Clear Politics polling has indicated the DelMarVa vote has been unchallenged by republicans coming out in droves then I will vote third party. I need to find a reliable source for late day voting results to stay informed prior to the 7 p.m. poll closing.

In these states, I would tell a person who votes for Trump, you just shot yourself in the foot.

My reasons are my own, good on particulars and for myself. I am concerned not for what can be done for this election, the die is cast and is written on Tuesday. Nope, Im for giving up on the 2 party system by showing support for an alternative. It may be for naught. But a vote for Trump is also for naught in DelMarVa. 

5 minutes ago, turkeyfoot said:

I think theres something to be said about context here.

Geoff,

You mean like the oodles of people all over the country who are voting for--or will vote for--Trump who normally would not?

Michael

58 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

Fair enough. I don't think you get much from my output, either. Especially if your prediction is pretty much 'anything' can happen (victory, squeaker win, squeaker loss, schlonging).

Since you are basically saying that any and all predictions are crap, that leaves you in an epistemic fog. I bear in mind that we have in common an Objectivish attachment to reason, if not to Randian-style good cognitive housekeeping.

The value of predicting in this election gets less the closer we get to the election. The value of the colored maps is to show basic strength and weakness for each of the candidates state by state qua party. If Illery hadn't been blindsided by the FBI and the following torrent, predictions would be much more apropos right up to election day. We don't know how much digesting of all this by the voters has been done or will turn out. Illery's opposition might be shooting at the wrong target--Podesta, Weiner, Abelin, when she should be getting it right in the face directly. There may be enough buffer and not enough time resulting in her winning regardless of everything.

--Brant

I've changed my mind: my worthless prediction is Trump gets well over 300 electoral votes because of a swing from the upper mid-West plus Florida--even Pennslyvania (she'll get the three West coast states and New Mexico, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont(?!), Rhode Island and a few others--all wishful thinking by me)

4 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

my worthless prediction is Trump gets well over 300 electoral votes because of a swing from the upper mid-West plus Florida--even Pennslyvania (she'll get the three West coast states and New Mexico, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont(?!), Rhode Island and a few others--all wishful thinking by me)

Could happen. Which would make this map of the race at 270towin a good starting place.

-- making the map closer to your prediction, we get this:

I'd give her NM and MN but not NH = 314 for T. If he gets PA, then 334. VA?

--Brant

19 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Geoff,

You mean like the oodles of people all over the country who are voting for--or will vote for--Trump who normally would not?

Michael

Funny. I never feel like an oodle using my noodle.

10 minutes ago, turkeyfoot said:

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

oodles of people all over the country

I never feel like an oodle using my noodle.

There are approximately four point six buttloads of oodle in each gazillion.  Fractional magic will give you a nice, rounded, but bumpy number.

Quote

In Trump’s Most Important County, a Surge of Hispanic Voters

Trump officials believe the Florida county of Miami-Dade can tip the must-win state their way. But an analysis of early votes shows eye-popping Hispanic numbers.

 

Joshua Green JoshuaGreen

 

 

Donald Trump’s campaign has always understood that Florida is key to his electoral chances. At Trump’s data headquarters in San Antonio, staffers run daily simulations that weight and rank the importance of each state to building a path to 270 electoral votes. Florida is invariably on top. And within Florida, Trump’s analysts have pinpointed the area that’s most critical of all.

Miami-Dade County is the most important county in the country for Trump's chances, according to a campaign official familiar with the simulations. 

Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital director, prefers the slightly broader measure of “designated market area,” but agrees Miami-Dade is “the most important DMA”—ground zero for the Trump campaign. “When I speak of importance,” Parscale said, “I am stating that we have large numbers of persuadable” voters there.

[...]

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Schiller: Latino Voters Show Enormous Mobilization