Bad Times Coming

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Bad Times Coming

Tony Robbins coaches some of the top people in the world. He leans liberal, but he is very conscious about his own money.

His position allows him to get economic opinions from the world's top folks with respect to what they are going to do with their money. And he is basically a good person--at least I believe he is. This is why he is issuing an alert about the bad times coming. He hears it from them.

If you can stomach his left-leaning theory (economies are driven solely by spending--heh, I wonder what people would spend on if there was nothing produced to buy), he does give some good personal advice.

And his view that we are going into winter, not a total disaster, is one I share.

I put this in "Tips for Everyday Living" because it is on a personal finance level.

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If a guy like this is making a statement like that, that's not good...

Michael

[BaalChatzaf]

The Stock Market is a legal casino. Except for IPOs which actually gather up capital to produce stuff, the stock market is essentially symbol manipulation. It has only an indirect connection to nuts, bolts, bending metal and inventing new technologies. It is the perfect method for people who are unable to create the elements of the Real Economy to become rich on the basis of luck and to do it legally.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[merjet]

The Stock Market is a legal casino. Except for IPOs which actually gather up capital to produce stuff, the stock market is essentially symbol manipulation. It has only an indirect connection to nuts, bolts, bending metal and inventing new technologies. It is the perfect method for people who are unable to create the elements of the Real Economy to become rich on the basis of luck and to do it legally.

What symbols are being manipulated and by whom?

Ba'al has a point about IPOs - the primary market for stocks. Most stock trading is in the secondary market. However, the primary market would differ substantially if there were no secondary market. Imagine you could only buy stock from, or sell stock to, the company that issues it. You would be in a very poor bargaining position and the company would probably restrict stock redemption when it doesn't have the liquidity (i.e., cash). How many people would be willing to buy stock with those conditions?

Edited August 22, 2010 by Merlin Jetton

[Rich Engle]

8/22/2010

OFFICE OF HUMAN AFFAIRS REPORTING

SW FL BRANCH

SUBJECT: PEOPLE GET READY (AND THAT AIN'T NO POP SONG)

One of the few things about having almost no money is that it becomes extremely difficult to mismanage it, unless you are very, very stupid, unless you have psychological problems, unless you are an addict, unless it is some mixture of that. Unless you want to die. And you will die. In fact, even if you manage it to the best of your ability, you still might die.

Read that again if you need to, because I want to be sure that you know I am casting no judgment. Pretty soon, it is unlikely that things like "judging" will be important to you. For sure, arrogance will get you nowhere, and that will be on a good day.

Gauging the "level of decline . . ." whether it be global, or U.S., is now a secondary pastime. Soon, it will not likely be important to you. For sure, the "Little American" (or whatever you prefer to call them) is toast.

Sooner or later, it is almost certain that you are going to find yourself in that place. Most of you will not know what to do upon arrival. If there is a most dangerous part of going through the process (they all are), that is the one. You will be eaten.

For sure, you will spend less time arguing about things on forums. You might be in, say, a FEMA camp, or just on the street. It is already hard enough to get on the Internet at most libraries, due to these things. Why do I know this? Why do you think so?

Statistically, I, and many others, have reasonable cause to believe that this will be the case for at least 80% of the global population.

You will learn to value food and water in a way that is much more important than most people do (other than those that have experience, or were trained into it).

Here is a very sad thing I just saw today, coming home from playing a church gig. I took a little turn around my 55+ trailer park/retirement community dealio. I was doing that because I was already concerned about the degenerative effects of economic downturn; specifically tribalistic, desperate actions that you see if you are surrounded by people on fixed incomes, and their prodigy. I will leave it at that.

I cannot disclose names here, because the person(s) in question are already in a pure survival situation, and don't need further legal problems. What I can say:

A perfectly-nice pair of brothers. They worked. They were very respectful and cordial to all. But that was not enough, and they were evicted. They assed-out, and that can (and probably will) happen to you. It was, really, a very unjust situation, but economic pressure creates many unjust situations . . .

You see, in most mobile home parks, you either own your mobile home, or you rent it: but in either event you have to pay a "lot fee." I am not in that situation; my place simply is attached to the place in question. That means that if you become in arrears, and go through eviction, you get evicted, and the management of the park/community/whatever now has your place.

Well, this guy knew that very well, so, in his desparate need to survive (and on principle, I do believe), he started stripping the place down to the bone, loading up the scrap, and trying to sell it off. You can sell scrap aluminum, copper, etc., of course. It is probably essential that he does so in order to survive. Here's what that looks like (pictures by consent, the parties involved are hiding):

I am not saying it is un-fightable. What I am saying is that it would be prudent to hone your survival skills in small ways. More:

More:

I do not believe this is the time to be ivory tower. The way things are now are non-exclusive, philosophically, for sure. They won't care ifyou are an Objectivist. But, good Reason, and good Reverance and Tolerance for others will help greatly. It will not, however, get you all the way through.

I hit the street, nearly died, and came back. Currently, I live a very long way from this way. But it is close to me. And, for that main reason, that's why I respect Kelly for having this forum: I know where he's been.

That is enough, but do think on it. Your number can definitely come up.

Good Luck, Warmest Blessings,

rde

Come over if you need water. Maybe.

[Brant Gaede]

The Stock Market is a legal casino. Except for IPOs which actually gather up capital to produce stuff, the stock market is essentially symbol manipulation. It has only an indirect connection to nuts, bolts, bending metal and inventing new technologies. It is the perfect method for people who are unable to create the elements of the Real Economy to become rich on the basis of luck and to do it legally.

Ba'al Chatzaf

IPOs are some of the biggest ripoffs on Wall Street as witness the upcoming IPO of General (Government) Motors. Goldman pulled a fast one, however. It knew it could not get the business, usually about 3%, so it announced it would do it for .75%. So the investment banks that are getting the business are stuck with the .75% of the 10-15 billion GM hopes to get (the union owns 20% of the company and the government about 60%. Not all the stock gets put on the market of course. Don't buy this political crap.)

If you rely on "luck" as an investor or trader you are going to be the luck of competent professionals. Investors are leaving stocks for government bonds because they know this, creating in turn a huge bubble that will impoverish most of them eventually. If your stock isn't in at least 10 world-class diversified companies each with little debt that pay at least a 3% dividend, you are going to take a beating unless you have special knowledge and insight. (Also physical cash on the side and gold and silver plus the ability to stay in your home and not go to the store for two or more weeks.)

--Brant

[Roger Bissell]

This is a pessimistic-sounding thread, but actually a realistic, keep-your-head-out-of-the-sand kind of warning to us all, and thanks to Michael for starting it.

My own favorite guru on this is Harry S. Dent. His argument makes sense to me: because of the magnitude of the demographic shift into retirement and (relative) non-consumption/spending of the Baby Boomers, we are inexorably going to be dumped into a major depression, regardless of what "stimulus" moves the Federal government attempts.

The good news is that, in 10 years or so, we will be (more or less) ~out~ of the depression. In the meantime, though, hunker down, don't take on new, unnecessary debt, and stockpile at least a few days' worth of survival necessities.

Naturally, I hope that Dent is wrong, and that the other Cassandras are wrong--and that we are just in a temporary period of a sort of "stagflation." But I'm not betting on it.

REB

[RagJohn]

He's an idiot. why not live in an $800 mini-van, and just sell the mobile home? I lived in a van for 2 years, on 5k a year. If you go North for the summers, and south for the winters, you can find work, and save a bundle on utilities, commuting, and rent. Most people just throw away 10-20k per year of their after tax income. If they bought gold coins with it, and/or spent it on training/education, or invested it wisely, they'd soon be able to retire. I mean in less than 10 yrs, age 28, not still struggling at age 58!.