James Heaps-Nelson

Why the Future is Bright :-)

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance. The gene sequencing industry is proceeding at a breathtaking pace. Within 10 years we should be able to sequence anyone's genome for less than $100. This will usher in a new era of bioinformatics which will be able to use population studies to tailor cancer treatments so that chemotherapy will be administered in a targeted way. Many cancers are caused not only by changes in the genetic code as expressed by the sequence of base pairs in DNA, but also by changes in the epigenome such as methylation of the deoxyribose sugar backbone of DNA.

New sequencing techniques can not only reveal the replicable DNA code, but also critical changes to the epigenome. All this will be done with little interference from the FDA because it requires no human testing of pharmaceuticals, only use of existing pharmaceuticals in targeted ways. Genetic and epigenetic markers will be found for a significant fraction of diseases simply through bioinformatics and epigenomic sequencing.

Jim

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance. The gene sequencing industry is proceeding at a breathtaking pace. Within 10 years we should be able to sequence anyone's genome for less than $100. This will usher in a new era of bioinformatics which will be able to use population studies to tailor cancer treatments so that chemotherapy will be administered in a targeted way. Many cancers are caused not only by changes in the genetic code as expressed by the sequence of base pairs in DNA, but also by changes in the epigenome such as methylation of the deoxyribose sugar backbone of DNA.

New sequencing techniques can not only reveal the replicable DNA code, but also critical changes to the epigenome. All this will be done with little interference from the FDA because it requires no human testing of pharmaceuticals, only use of existing pharmaceuticals in targeted ways. Genetic and epigenetic markers will be found for a significant fraction of diseases simply through bioinformatics and epigenomic sequencing.

Jim

Yes, the future is bright--for some people including many who don't yet know it--but we are just entering a period of world-wide economic dislocation that will devaste the middle-class almost everywhere because they have not repaired to hard assets.

--Brant

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance.

You'd probably like Matt Ridley's new book. His catch phrase "Ideas having sex" makes me cringe, but he says a lot of insightful things.

He's written quite a bit about the genome project, though his latest doesn't go far in depth on the subject.

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance.

You'd probably like Matt Ridley's new book. His catch phrase "Ideas having sex" makes me cringe, but he says a lot of insightful things.

He's written quite a bit about the genome project, though his latest doesn't go far in depth on the subject.

Thanks for the link, Dennis! I haven't read much of Matt Ridley yet. Looking forward to it. I think our current prosperity goes much beyond economic output. The most important technologies advance even in a period of local economic retreat. In fact, the rate of growth of influential new technologies is greater in a recession because cutting edge scientists and engineers are cheaper to employ. I think next generation gene sequencing and bioinformatics will be the key that unlocks progress on many diseases from the FDA logjam.

Jim

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World GDP

World GDP is still growing although it had a close dip to the 0 line. This recession seems in line with the 73-75 correction and the 76-82 multiyear downdraft.

BTW, look at how fast emerging and developing countries have grown since '91 due to the fall of communism.

Jim

Edited by James Heaps-Nelson

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance. The gene sequencing industry is proceeding at a breathtaking pace. Within 10 years we should be able to sequence anyone's genome for less than $100. This will usher in a new era of bioinformatics which will be able to use population studies to tailor cancer treatments so that chemotherapy will be administered in a targeted way. Many cancers are caused not only by changes in the genetic code as expressed by the sequence of base pairs in DNA, but also by changes in the epigenome such as methylation of the deoxyribose sugar backbone of DNA.

New sequencing techniques can not only reveal the replicable DNA code, but also critical changes to the epigenome. All this will be done with little interference from the FDA because it requires no human testing of pharmaceuticals, only use of existing pharmaceuticals in targeted ways. Genetic and epigenetic markers will be found for a significant fraction of diseases simply through bioinformatics and epigenomic sequencing.

Jim

Yes, the future is bright--for some people including many who don't yet know it--but we are just entering a period of world-wide economic dislocation that will devaste the middle-class almost everywhere because they have not repaired to hard assets.

--Brant

Brant,

The middle class will be devastated because they don't understand the statistical nature of extreme events and why leverage(debt) makes people extremely vulnerable to downdrafts. The middle class also has largely been on the wrong side of the housing bubble, health care expenses and college tuition payments. Solution: don't pay too much for your house, car, adopt a more healthy lifestyle and get regular checkups as well as being aware of family history related problems. People should make sure they are getting what they pay for in college tuition: look at ROI and fit for the student. Also, as you said, people need to buy hard assets cheaply.

Jim

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There is a lot of economic gloom and doom right now, but mankind is on the verge of a new technological renaissance. The gene sequencing industry is proceeding at a breathtaking pace. Within 10 years we should be able to sequence anyone's genome for less than $100. This will usher in a new era of bioinformatics which will be able to use population studies to tailor cancer treatments so that chemotherapy will be administered in a targeted way. Many cancers are caused not only by changes in the genetic code as expressed by the sequence of base pairs in DNA, but also by changes in the epigenome such as methylation of the deoxyribose sugar backbone of DNA.

New sequencing techniques can not only reveal the replicable DNA code, but also critical changes to the epigenome. All this will be done with little interference from the FDA because it requires no human testing of pharmaceuticals, only use of existing pharmaceuticals in targeted ways. Genetic and epigenetic markers will be found for a significant fraction of diseases simply through bioinformatics and epigenomic sequencing.

Jim

Yes, the future is bright--for some people including many who don't yet know it--but we are just entering a period of world-wide economic dislocation that will devaste the middle-class almost everywhere because they have not repaired to hard assets.

--Brant

Brant,

The middle class will be devastated because they don't understand the statistical nature of extreme events and why leverage(debt) makes people extremely vulnerable to downdrafts. The middle class also has largely been on the wrong side of the housing bubble, health care expenses and college tuition payments. Solution: don't pay too much for your house, car, adopt a more healthy lifestyle and get regular checkups as well as being aware of family history related problems. People should make sure they are getting what they pay for in college tuition: look at ROI and fit for the student. Also, as you said, people need to buy hard assets cheaply.

Jim

Most simply I'm talking about the almost complete destruction of the dollar and debt instruments, especially bonds, and gross societal breakdowns. Physical gold should be purchased using dollar-cost averaging and stored but not in banks' safe deposit boxes. If you can buy a house to live in cheap with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage and minimal down payment and aren't afraid of property taxes, that could be a way to cheat inflation.

--Brant

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Solution: don't pay too much for your house, car, adopt a more healthy lifestyle and get regular checkups as well as being aware of family history related problems. People should make sure they are getting what they pay for in college tuition: look at ROI and fit for the student. Also, as you said, people need to buy hard assets cheaply.

Jim

There's one more problem: rising property taxes. I have had no mortgage since 1966, but my taxes have gone from being one weekly paycheck to almost my entire annual income, even though I own the home free and clear (or thought I did, anyway). Aside from mortgaged folks, a lot of senior citizens will be seeing revaluations of 300% this year, despite the collapsed housing bubble, a paradoxical situation that seems almost like a mass land grab by municipalities, since few are in a position to pay triple the property taxes over last year. My taxes exceed the sum total of ALL other expenses, including food, heating oil, electric and telephone services. Property taxes are the hidden 'bomb' in the economy, set to go off next year, after this year's revaluations affect next year's tax bills.

http://basspig.wordpress.com/2010/02/16/feudal-land-title-a-commonlaw-fraud/

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