Coronavirus

[anthony]

Ditto, what I replied to you on O.O, merjet: The Swedes had the right policy (following Wittkowski's principle) I think - but - those at risk among the people did not self-isolate. As the numbers are heavily 80+ by age, and one can be sure, including many others with various weaknesses, the fatalities could/would have been far less - if they had. I asked you, must govt. officials force those they judge potentially at risk into quarantine? ("For their own good"). I think not. If one can't act in one's self-interest, nobody can force one. Of course, with some people like the homeless, poor, sick and elderly in state care, and without families, the govt. should act in their interests.

[Peter]

U.S. deaths 50,401   cases 893,069

0.0564357289 or 5.6 percent die

World wide. 193,042 deaths 2,745,677cases

0.0703076145 or 7 percent die from coronavirus.

Yahoo News Coronavirus live updates: U.S. passes 50,000 deaths. From history.com 58,000 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

[anthony]

Song written and sung by a New Yorker Covid 19 survivor: Thank you for life.

[tmj]

Daily totals and “grim milestones” met, passed ,exceeded aren’t epidemiology.

In eighteen months , or more, studies based on data extrapolated over total populations /infections/deaths will give a truer picture of this virus, assuming it functions as other viral infections encountered in the past.

It seems logical to assume herd immunity plays a major role in stopping reoccurrence of infection. Biologically this virus will most likely run the same course all other viruses have run.

It is just so sad that the big screen said “Stay put” and most answered “ok”.

[Brant Gaede]

5 hours ago, Peter said:

U.S. deaths 50,401   cases 893,069

0.0564357289 or 5.6 percent die

World wide. 193,042 deaths 2,745,677cases

0.0703076145 or 7 percent die from coronavirus.

Yahoo News Coronavirus live updates: U.S. passes 50,000 deaths.

What good reason do we have to believe these statistics?

--Brant

[anthony]

The ratio of the "numerator" (number of deaths) to the "denominator" (numbers of cases of infection, detected) is going to change rapidly, epidemiologists seem to estimate.

There could be huge numbers of people who are walking around who _would_ test positive for infection, but hardly feel the symptoms and won't sicken.

Whereas, the majority of deaths came early and are accounted for, and are slowing.

Don't trust those preliminary ratios. They will drop - *maybe* to a single percentage point or under. (Like the flu). Much too soon to tell.

 

[Peter]

8 hours ago, anthony said:

Song written and sung by a New Yorker Covid 19 survivor: Thank you for life.

Beautiful!

[Peter]

4 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

What good reason do we have to believe these statistics?

--Brant

I got them from something called the internet, as wild and crazy as that might sound. If I had gotten them from a "newspaper" I might feel more sure. 

[Jules Troy]

Hey Peter good to see you again.

[Peter]

16 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

What good reason do we have to believe these statistics?

The CDC? Fox News? Local news? Conspiracy sites? Ghost Busters? The question of “where do you get your news?” is a valid one. I trust the local news and if it segues into national news then I accept the national as correct. It is a question of epistemology. For instance my skepticism kicked in when prominent democrats wanted President Trump to assume more power. Why would they do that? Out of fear and precaution or because they plan on winning in 2020 and taking over America with stronger Presidential powers?  

Locally I heard that non-covid medical cases are being treated, but just one case in the building at a time. That is true because a relative needed medical care and they were the only one allowed in. When they went in they were the only patient being treated.  Everyone else was sitting in their cars.

I still don’t know anyone personally who has gotten the virus, but I am OK with social distancing and staying home and I wear a mask if I am out and about.

[Peter]

8 minutes ago, Jules Troy said:

Hey Peter good to see you again.

Thanks Jules.

Back to da virus. I wonder if the statistics locally are true showing around 40 some cases in my county and hundreds in the closest Delaware county. There are several chicken plants there and a lot of cases are showing up at local hospitals. The hospitals are having trouble understanding the Haitian, French creole speaking workers and the Spanish speaking workers. I think a lot of people will get the virus but never seek treatment or "report" themselves. I wouldn't unless I had to go to the hospital.  

[Jules Troy]

I notice the China stats seem really low for cases/deaths.  Is this because they have a vaccine before they unleashed this on the world?  Or is it because they are hiding how many in China are infected/dead in an attempt to show “look how much better we are than the free world”.

 

Oh yeah, another possible shitstorm from this virus.

https://apple.news/AQ6Fn_kyCRcOxppbFEcViFQ
As if dying from respiratory failure isn’t enough...

[Peter]

From Jules’ link: “Healthy people in their 30s and 40s, barely sick with COVID-19, are dying from strokes.”

Fox was just reporting that the number of U.S. coronavirus cases is getting close to a million and the number of deaths is over 50,000. Deaths world-wide are over 200,000 but no one trusts China’s responses as Jules noted.

I think testing in years to come, will show that most Americans will have been infected with the virus. Around ninety-five percent of Americans who get it survive but many of the survivors may have lingering problems or permanent damage

What is all this going to cost? The local news showed people in their cars lining up to get free food. I think America should get back to work, and I am glad to see some states and countries like Sweden are doing just that. They are epidemiologist’s test sites. Good for them.

The crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt near central America is infected. Fox is saying they may unload in San Diego. 800 sailors who tested positive on an Aircraft carrier are unloading in Guam. 

[Jules Troy]

Hrrrm it shows that there are 2.9 million cases world wide.

It also shows “outcome”. 800k+ alive and well and 200k+ dead.  So..20% of cases with a final outcome are dead.  That’s a far cry from 5%.  I mean the numbers that have contracted it are one thing.  The ones that matter are the final outcome once it has run its course.  So that’s over 2million and growing with a “who the fuck knows hanging over their heads.

[anthony]

Late Nite show, Trevor Noah hosting w/o audience, just now mocked Ohioans, Nebraskans, and others for demonstrating to be allowed back to work, ending lockdown. Nice, Trevor, your bank balance is fat and safe. A South African export I'm not proud of.

[anthony]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation%3famp?espv=1&fbclid=IwAR20ErKdaN1JaFrHm_FjQklBxw40wil9-7l6U4In2dWoej4_V6mMjaQ1Lwc

[Peter]

On 4/24/2020 at 8:57 PM, Brant Gaede said:

What good reason do we have to believe these statistics?

--Brant

Go to MSN"s homepage and near the top there are a group of topics and "coronavirus" is one of them. It usually shows the latest stats, for the world, America, and each state in America. Should anyone believe them? I think so. They are based on the CDC and individual state's medical statistics and I am sure the states check what appears there. If you believe your state's attorney general about "pockets of cases," policies, and rulings then you must also trust the compilation. Hospitals report on the cases they have.

Our Maryland governor is requiring that you use a mask in public. In Delaware you do not. The first Sussex County Delaware case was at Mountaire Poultry processing plant in Selbyville, just across the border from Maryland and then it spread to the beach and exploded among the minority community in the Georgetown area.  Do I believe this has all happened? If any discordance between the facts appears, plenty of citizens and government officials will clear up the discrepancies. They are believable and no conspiracy buffs are allowed into positions of authority.

An objectivist uses facts and reason to reach conclusions and thereby guide his or her actions. Remember the fictional "Andromeda Strain?" With the coronavirus you need not suspend your disbelief to understand reality. The truth is out there.
  

[Peter]

10 minutes ago from the MSN directed web site about Covid 19.

2,897,645 cases world wide 202,880 deaths 0.0700154781 or 7 percent of the people worldwide are dying.

956,375 cases in America  53,928 deaths. 0.0563879231 or 5.6 percent of Americans are dying.

edit. My wife and I received our stimulus check today.

[anthony]

https://merionwest.com/2020/04/24/the-coronavirus-response-does-not-take-place-in-a-vacuum/

[anthony]

10 hours ago, Peter said:

10 minutes ago from the MSN directed web site about Covid 19.

2,897,645 cases world wide 202,880 deaths 0.0700154781 or 7 percent of the people worldwide are dying.

956,375 cases in America  53,928 deaths. 0.0563879231 or 5.6 percent of Americans are dying.

edit. My wife and I received our stimulus check today.

Peter, the true numbers of cases are not yet in, a long way from even being estimated (in the final analysis). Only then will we see a true percentage, and getting lower every day. Deaths are visible, (most) cases aren't.

"So far, it has been responsible for fewer deaths than the approximately 500,000 deaths caused each year by the flu".[World wide].

(Merion West, Brett Oppenheim)

One can't put a price on a life - but grim statistics remind one that mega-deaths across continents are the norm ... by any cause. That's fact.

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Off the top of my head, here's the problem with stats in any situation, not just agenda-driven ones.

1. If the people reporting the events on official forms are lying, incompetent, making mistakes, oversimplifying, etc., the final stats and interpretations will be flawed and any models based on them will be flawed. For example, people who fill out cause of death on official forms. If these people are not honest and competent, the whole thing is a waste of time, including all later derived products.

2. If the people gathering this information are lying, incompetent, making mistakes, oversimplifying, etc., they will also pollute the final product. 

3. If the people organizing this information from all the different gatherers are lying, incompetent, making mistakes, oversimplifying, etc., they will also pollute the final product.

4. If the people officially interpreting this information are lying, incompetent, making mistakes, oversimplifying, etc., they will also pollute the final product.

5. Finally, if the people reporting this information to the public are lying, incompetent, making mistakes, oversimplifying, etc., they will also pollute the final product.

 

When we look at one stat, we don't see all that. We merely see it as a thing. One thing. A concrete. The physical stat (meaning the stat printed on a page or on a computer screen) is an item out in reality we can look at. Like a bear, a plate of food, a gun, an ocean wave, etc. So we tend to treat the stat with the same kind of credibility as actual things. We see the bear with our own eyes, so we know the bear is there, and we are certain our mental image represents reality (the bear).

But a stat? Well, we see the stat with our own eyes, so we know the state is there and we presume it represents reality. The thing is, it actually does represent reality. The mental image corresponds to a series of words and numbers (and tables, etc.) printed on paper or a screen.That's the reality the abstraction means.

Now here comes the sleight-of-mind. Since that reality is nothing but worthless scrawls unless those scrawls mean something other than scrawls, those scrawls stand for an abstraction of a different reality.

Oh...

Now the magic trick. In abstracting from that abstraction, we start to automatically believe that a stat represents the reality of the thing it claims to be measuring. Why? Because we saw the stat with our own eyes. We didn't see what it is measuring. We assume the stat corresponds to what it is measuring, but that assumption is based on the certainty of seeing something with own eyes. The sleight-of-mind is that this certainty comes from seeing wrong thing (the stat) rather than what it is measuring (the thing being measured) as the core element of our identification.

We think we saw something with our own eyes, so it must be real. But all we saw was a communication from other people about what they say is real.

Another sleight-of mind happens when propagandists present examples of what they are measuring. They tend to present cases that have the strongest emotional appeal. As the saying goes, one little girl crying and filthy is a heartbreaker, but 100,000 dead children is a statistic. If the 100,000 actually died of the things that made the little girl cry, then she is a good representative.

However, in modern times, the media constantly slaps the little girl crying and filthy on cases where she's the only one in that state (like, say, to illustrate the case of a large number of middle class kids). I'm saying "little girl crying," but this applies to all single examples that tug at the heartstrings, make people outraged, make people shit-scared-to-death, etc.

Victimization stories are really good to set up this sleight-of-mind (that is, getting people to believe a large number--a stat--corresponds to many instances of the same plight as the individual used as example). Sometimes this is accurate, but from what I see, bullshit abounds in abundance.

 

I could go on all day with this stuff, and I've left out a lot, but keep in mind that all five of the items I listed above have to be carried out by people of integrity at a minimum BEFORE any statistic can be credible. Not some of the five. All five.

And how do we know that those steps are carried out by people of integrity? Well, the same media people who give us the stat and what it means also tell us that they are. That's how we know.

What could possibly go wrong?

Hmmmmm?...

Obviously, there's a lot of wiggle-room in that process for monkeys to come in and have a rip-roaring ball. And boy do they come in. For an easy example, think of all the mainstream media stats about the 2016 US presidential election. Gobs and gobs of stats.  

If the mainstream media can be that prolific for that long and be flat dead wrong in all of it (which is provable since President Trump won the election), what makes their stats credible when the issue is health?

They told us they are credible?

That's how we know?

What could possibly go wrong?

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

CDC stats use comorbidity.

--Brant

[Peter]

If anyone has had the virus or personally knows someone who has had the virus everyone would like to hear of their experiences.

Locally, they are putting 2 million chicks to death because of a lack of workers at the "chicken plants" to "process" them in the weeks to come. I have heard of similar problems in pork producing states. Locally they are still paying the chicken farmers for their loss. The closest chicken farm to me that is still operating is about a quarter of a mile away and I can smell it if the wind is blowing from the north west. Chicken manure is put on the fields next to me and across the road too. Whew. It can be bad before the rain comes and I have lived here part of my childhood and most of my adult life.  

Anthony wrote, "Peter, the true numbers of cases are not yet in, a long way from even being estimated (in the final analysis). Only then will we see a true percentage, and getting lower every day. Deaths are visible, (most) cases aren't."

I certainly agree, but I grimly plow through the stats most days if only to see the local cases being reported. Now the Doc's are predicting self quarantine will continue throughout the summer, and Fauci is saying there is little to no evidence that getting the coronavirus will protect you from getting it again. ON the good side I will need to spend $2400 in stimulus money. Peter  

[Jules Troy]

I think in the coming months you’ll see covid deaths down, suicide, murder, child abuse etc wayyyyyyyyy uppppppp..

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

I always thought sick people were the ones you were supposed to quarantine. Not a whole country...

Michael