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Michael Stuart Kelly

Peer Reviewed -- Penises Cause Climate Change

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15 minutes ago, 9thdoctor said:

Here's a new one.  The Little Ice Age was caused by genocide of Native Americans. 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/world/european-colonization-climate-change-trnd/index.html

You can't beat that combo.  It sounds like something that would come out of a focus group composed exclusively of left-wing college student activists.

Do I dismiss it instantly?  That's some serious confirmation bias you have there, Doctor (Doctor who?).  In my defense, note that it's a CNN story. 

We killed off the buffalo, leaving American Indians with only gambling casinos to get by.

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3 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

Okay, but for the record that's not the way avalanches start.

--Brant

I like that dramatic moment as the dynamite or pistol shots go off, and then the avalanche comes down the mountain. It's kind of like cleaning your teeth. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 9:14 AM, BaalChatzaf said:

Climate is, roughly speaking, average weather over a moving 30 year interval.  30 years is considered the smallest interval that can indicate climate conditions. 

I wonder at what point scientists decided that the 30 year window was appropriate.

30 is often considered the minimum size of a statistical sample, so there might be a legitimate reason for using that number, but it seems very convenient in the current debate.

If I recall correctly, climate alarmism really got going around the year 2000. By comparing the current temperature to the 30 year average, it allowed weather forecasters to average in the particularly cold 1970's while ignoring earlier decades that were actually warmer.

It also brings up the question of what is "normal." Weather people often say that the temperature is "above normal." If they mean it is above the 30 year average, that is fine, but why don't they say that? If the weather person said, "Today, the temperature is expected to be above the 30 year average," it wouldn't be quite the same as saying that the temperature is expected to be, "above normal."

Today's temperature is expected to be above the 30 year average and above the 100 year average, but below the 10,000 year average. We are expecting a period of light followed by increasing darkness into this evening. People who are expecting to be out and about at that time are encouraged to use their headlights. Additional periods of light and darkness are expected over the next few days.

Darrell

 

 

 

 

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On 2/1/2019 at 1:22 PM, Peter said:

We killed off the buffalo, leaving American Indians with only gambling casinos to get by.

1792   Chief  Walking Crow

1862  Chief Sitting Bull

1992  Chief Rolling Dice.

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Is Global Warming Borrrrrring? This still might be of some interest. I copied and edited this today, June 12th, 2019, for brevity. It is from Nat Geo so they have some credibility. Sea levels are rising over a tenth of an inch a year. So people next to the ocean are doing some long term rethinking about living there, where they put paved roads, etc. People living on small, low lying islands are most affected. One of my daughters just built a house 9 feet above the highest tide mark, with a tall base under the house so she is probably around 12 feet above, but her car is just 9 feet above. I am 14 feet above and another daughter not far away is 40 feet above sea level. Everyone around here builds on stilts or up on 4 or 5 cinder blocks. My mother and father in law’s house in West Ocean City is built on a 20 foot high hill that used to be a golf course but some of their property has become wetlands and what was wetlands is now part of the bay. Their house has survived quite a few hurricanes with the loss of shingles and window frames, but has never been flooded.  Peter     

National Geographic: Sea level rise, explained, Oceans are rising around the world, causing dangerous flooding. Why is this happening, and what can we do to stem the tide? By Christina Nunez. Rising seas is one of those climate change effects. Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another .13 inches (3.2 mm)  . . . . Adapting to the threat. As a result of these risks, many coastal cities are already planning adaptation measures to cope with the long-term prospects of higher sea levels, often at considerable cost. Building seawalls, rethinking roads, and planting mangroves or other vegetation to absorb water are all being undertaken . . . . The change in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by ongoing global climate change: Thermal expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the sea-level rise over the past 25 years is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

Melting glaciers: Large ice formations such as mountain glaciers naturally melt a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. That creates an imbalance between runoff and ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise. Loss of Greenland and Antarctica’s ice sheets: As with mountain glaciers, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt more quickly. Scientists also believe that meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. While melting in West Antarctica has drawn considerable focus from scientists, especially with the 2017 break in them to move more quickly into the sea. While melting in West Antarctica has drawn considerable focus from scientists, especially with the 2017 break in the Larsen C ice shelf, glaciers in East Antarctica are also showing signs of destabilizing . . . Higher sea levels are coinciding with more dangerous hurricanes and typhoons that move more slowly and drop more rain, contributing to more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path. One study found that between 1963 and 2012, almost half of all deaths from Atlantic hurricanes were caused by storm surges.

Already, flooding in low-lying coastal areas is forcing people to migrate to higher ground, and millions more are vulnerable from flood risk and other climate change effects. The prospect of higher coastal water levels threatens basic services such as Internet access, since much of the underlying communications infrastructure lies in the path of rising seas. Adapting to the threat. As a result of these risks, many coastal cities are already planning adaptation measures to cope with the long-term prospects of higher sea levels, often at considerable cost. Building seawalls, rethinking roads, and planting mangroves or other vegetation to absorb water are all being undertaken. How high will it go? Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate, causing the oceans to keep rising. This means hundreds of coastal cities face flooding. But forecasting how much and how soon seas will rise remains an area of ongoing research. The most recent special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to 77 centimeters) by 2100 with temperatures warming 1.5 °C. That’s enough to seriously affect many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. Another analysis based on NASA and European data skewed toward the higher end of that range, predicting a rise of 26 inches (65 centimeters) by the end of this century if the current trajectory continues.

If all the ice that currently exists on Earth in glaciers and sheets melted it would raise sea level by 216 feet. That could cause entire states and even some countries to disappear under the waves, from Florida to Bangladesh. That’s not a scenario scientists think is likely, and it would probably take many centuries, but it could eventually happen if the world keeps burning fossil fuels indiscriminately. In the meantime, scientists keep refining their models of sea-level changes. They also point out that the extent to which countries work together to limit release of more greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on how quickly seas rise, and how much.

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