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3 hours ago, william.scherk said:

How would we attempt to persuade those who haven't made up their minds (about the probability [or certainty] that these packages were sent by an actor or actors 'pretending')?

I'd say it is more reasonable to keep an open mind, and see what the FBI discovers in their investigation. Idiocy, incompetence, Hail Mary, lame-ass, dastardly deed or other padding notwithstanding.

 

When we find out whether these bombs really were dangerous it might tip the scales.  A false flag would (more likely I think) coincide with dud bombs.  Not trying to hurt anyone.  And confident that it won't become known that they were duds until after election day.   So the recipients look like heroes, who've been risking their lives for standing up to Trump.  How could this episode ever be a win for Republicans?  If someone got killed?  That would be even worse for Republicans, like the JFK assassination. 

OTOH, if we're dealing with an irrational actor, and it only takes one of them, plenty available on the left and the right...hence my 50/50 probability estimate.

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Here's one of the best quotes on conspiracy theories I have ever heard. It's from Bret Weinstein, the biology and evolution professor who had to resign from Evergreen State College in Washington state for racism because he would not practice racism.

Let me emphasize that and quote from the tweet:

Quote

... my only point: If we make it costly to consider conspiracy, we hand power to those who would conspire, placing the honorable at their mercy.

I contend that anyone who vehemently opposes that strives to be a gatekeeper for those among the powerful who hanker to social action spawned in the shadows. This position comes with the temptation, then the compulsion, to join in conspiring with them against the honorable.

Michael

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I only watch Lionel sporadically, but his commentary on the bomb-that-is-not-a-bomb publicity stunt is about all that particular prank deserves. (Incidentally, I think I'm going to start watching him a bit because I just noticed that his asides with exaggerated vocal intonation and body language are conveying strong underlying messages. Hmmmm... Something to think about and analyze...

Back to point, of course we are only going to know the facts when the facts come out, but I don't even think this affair is a false flag anymore. You need something to go boom for a real false flag. And you certainly don't include meme-level crap on your weapons. As Lionel said, when compared to the Gulf of Tonkin, Reichstag fire, sundry terrorist attacks, etc., hell, even the Boston Tea Party :) , if this bomb-that-is-not-a-bomb publicity stunt is a true false flag, it will take the prize as the lamest-ass false flag operation in history.

To show his contempt for the fake news media, Lionel even mentioned Megyn Kelly getting the boot like I did.

:) 

Apropos, I'm getting awfully tired of mainstream discussions about things that are not real, but the media keeps saying are: Trump hired hookers to pee on a bed. Muh Russians for two years. Kavanaugh is a serial gang rapist. And on and on and on and on and on... Now this crap...

At least with normal conspiracy theories, you go to conspiracy theorists to get them. This mainstream fake shit is everywhere, 24/7.

(At least this form of hogging the press over garbage is a good way for the elitists who are pulling some evil nasty strings in the shadows to avoid sunlight. Maybe that's the true reason behind so much garbage these days. Misdirection. And more than usual because the light is slowly being shined on them.)

Michael

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In the same general vein:

President Trump understands publicity better than anyone I know.

So this bomb crap probably was done to interrupt discussion of politics in the news where the Dems were getting creamed.

But, to repeat, President Trump understands publicity better than anyone I know.

Anyone wanna bet he will turn this into a prompt and goad for Republican turnout in the midterms--and the fake news media will be complicit against their will? 

:) 

Michael

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33 minutes ago, Jon Letendre said:

false_flag_cartoon.jpg

 

The envelope bombs sent to select Democrats are an obvious false flag.

Aside from their propaganda megaphone, CNN, everyone who received a package deserves prison time. Brennan, Hillary, Obama, Holder, etc, all are searching for sympathy because they know they are guilty of high treason.

The Deep State is pulling out all stops to gain sympathy and votes for their team. This is a pathetic means of doing it. The envelopes didn’t seem to have postmarks. If they were hand-delivered, then there should be video of the perpetrators. Especially on Hillary’s property. She has more video surveillance than a drug lord.

The bombs came with digital clocks serving as timed detonation devices that make no sense. The clocks had no countdown function and were added as “bomb props”.

The Soros-funded invasion is designed to garner sympathy and anti-Trump sentiment. It’s having the opposite effect. So now they pull the false flag package bombs. That won’t work either. What’s next, sending a smallpox blanket to Elizabeth Warren?

The Democrats are desperate. They’ve lost the debate and the control they’ve enjoyed for far too long. They are the violent ones. They are calling for an end to civility. Desperadoes take bigger chances.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another fake news event ahead of the election.  Will they take to the next level and actually kill some innocent to achieve power? I hope not.

—Ben Garrison

https://grrrgraphics.com/raising-a-false-flag/

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24 minutes ago, 9thdoctor said:

It's being reported that there's been an arrest.  Press conference at 2:30 eastern.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/suspect-arrested-in-florida-in-connection-with-suspicious-packages-sent-to-democrats

Dennis,

Let's hope he looks like a normal person and not an understudy for the movie, Deliverance.

That would drive the fringe on both sides nuts.

But the city were he was caught is not promising: Plantation.

:) 

Michael

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Here's Mr False Flag:  Cesar Sayoc identified as Florida man arrested in mail bombings: report

Dqci4HbVAAEe3Wx.jpgcesarSayocJr.jpg

Florida Man With Van ... ?DqcdSYcXgAE8FUx.jpgDqcdSYcXgAE8FUx.jpg

Spoiler

myHappyVan.jpg

Edited by william.scherk
Linked to tweet claiming this is a photograph of the van seized today

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1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Anyone wanna bet he will turn this into a prompt and goad for Republican turnout in the midterms--and the fake news media will be complicit against their will? 

Hell, I didn't see it, but I just did.

President Trump is going to livestream his talk to the Young Black Leadership Summit. By saying he will address the bomb thing then, he gets the entire country watching him talk to young blacks and watching them applaud him enthusiastically.

Man, does that chop a huuuuuuuuuuuge hole in the racism narrative the Democrats have been trying to deploy for the midterms...

:) 

Michael

 

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US Presidential Livestream; Trump at the Young Black Leadership whoop-up:

 

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6 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

[Michael quotes from Bret Weinstein]:

"...my only point:  If we make it costly to consider conspiracy, we hand power to those who would conspire, placing the honorable at their mercy."

I contend that anyone who vehemently opposes that strives to be a gatekeeper for those among the powerful who hanker to social action spawned in the shadows. This position comes with the temptation, then the compulsion, to join in conspiring with them against the honorable.

Michael

I think there is a strong enabler complicity among those who sneer at the very idea of real conspiracies being underway - a kind of informal colluding though not precisely conspiring to protect the elites in the shadows, an unacknowledged desire to assist toward the achievement of goals the sneerer approves of but wouldn't admit to favoring.

Ellen

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1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

[Y]ou racist, you?

I'll have to check. You?  Are you going to watch my November 6th live Youtube election whoop-up?

Spoiler

This Twitter account may belong to the #MAGAbomber ... for a false-flag, this is stupendously well-done in terms of phony back-story. I wonder what kind of Story Arc this might make ...

cesarTwitterSnapShot.png

Bonus:

TwitterCesar5.jpg

 

Edited by william.scherk
Fixed ''whoop-up" link to clarify the funniness

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1 hour ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

I think there is a strong enabler complicity among those who sneer at the very idea of real conspiracies being underway - a kind of informal colluding though not precisely conspiring to protect the elites in the shadows, an unacknowledged desire to assist toward the achievement of goals the sneerer approves of but wouldn't admit to favoring.

Ellen

Thank you for spelling out that plain truth, Ellen.

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On 10/24/2018 at 7:31 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

... knowing how recruitment is done on the dark side (a spook targets a disaffected imbalanced person, gets friendly with him, grooms him to do damage, pushes his buttons when chaos is needed, then disappears as kaboom happens, leaving the target to kill himself or take the rap)...

I've been looking around at Cesar Sayoc's psychological profile and, man does he fit the bill for this. His cousin called him a lost soul. Steroid abuse. Male stripper. Very angry at the world. Claimed he was Seminole ("unconquered Seminole Tribe") when he apparently was not. Felon. And on and on...

If I were law enforcement, I would be looking seriously at any "good friend" of his who disappeared in the last couple of months or so, especially if little is known about such friend.

Michael

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1 hour ago, Jon Letendre said:

Billyboy is confused and puzzled by Ellen’s observation and is trying to drag Ellen and this conversation over to his blog where he can censor and control it.

I don't post on William's blog.

An addendum about the sneering attitude - which I've encountered time and again in academic circles, generally from persons who expect me to respond in kind and are taken aback when I don't:

An exception is theories about Russian interference in American politics.  Then just about anything passes muster as long as it's seen as casting discredit on Trump.

Ellen

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4 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

I think there is a strong enabler complicity among those who sneer at the very idea of real conspiracies being underway - a kind of informal colluding though not precisely conspiring to protect the elites in the shadows, an unacknowledged desire to assist toward the achievement of goals the sneerer approves of but wouldn't admit to favoring.

Ellen,

I agree, but I would add that it goes beyond goals. I think it goes to sense of identity as a human being--a way of separating humanity into a superior enlightened us against the dumbass cattle of the rest of humanity. Anything that could threaten the "superior enlightened us" must be dismissed, mocked, and neutralized, facts be damned. 

Tucker Carlson said in his recent book, Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class Is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution, that when people think like this, generally lefties but other ruling class folks, too, all is forgiven if a person is considered a "Good Person," and all is condemned if a person is considered a "Bad Person." Facts, consistency, etc. don't matter. What does matter is if the person qualifies as a "Good Person" according to the group's standards, in this case, the vain being the core group. Vanity is their moral absolute of these people, so to speak.

:) 

I remember reading long ago a book by Barbara Tuchman about the world before WWI (The Proud Tower: A Portrait of the World Before the War, 1890-1914--I liked it at the time because it had a lot about Richard Strauss in it and, back then, I was memorizing "Death and Transfiguration" for conducting ? ).

She said all was forgiven among Europe's royalty and upper class--including any and all manner of perversion and crime--so long as a person was not exposed as such to the lower classes. The moment they were exposed in public, they were excommunicated from the upper class and became pariahs to all. Someday I will find her exact quote.

This was a thought that stuck with me over decades, even though I don't remember a lot about the rest of the book. (Another thought was her description of the English version of noblesse oblige, that the English made it a point of honor to be superior in many skills in order to justify their station as shepherds to their flocks, so to speak, not just affect superiority. Come to think of it, I might reread that book... :) )

I think part of the current fear of conspiracy theories and open hostility toward them--especially conspiracy theories that threaten elitists--is a residue of the ancient threat of excommunication for getting busted. Or maybe it's the current form that morphed over the decades.

Michael

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41 minutes ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

I don't post on William's blog.

An addendum about the sneering attitude - which I've encountered time and again in academic circles, generally from persons who expect me to respond in kind and are taken aback when I don't:

An exception is theories about Russian interference in American politics.  Then just about anything passes muster as long as it's seen as casting discredit on Trump.

Ellen

Me either.

Yes, exactly. They have the strongest doubt reflexes right up until the magic screen on the wall tells them a whopper theory that green-lights their continuing cheering of sedition against a duly-elected President of the United States.

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12 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

... elitists...

I want to add a thought to this.

I don't think I will ever know what goes on in the head of an elitist. It's like with envy. I think I have a touch of autism (something akin to Asperger's) because I don't know what envy feels like. I know others feel this emotion and I observe them acting on in, but inside my own emotional life, I don't know what it feels like. Note that this is different than affecting virtue. I don't have a virtuous feeling in the place of envy or even a mild feeling of superiority. I have a big fat nothing where envy should be. A zero.

That's me, so you who read this may not resonate. Well, here is something that you might resonate with.

In former times, blasphemy caused some people to faint in outrage. Many were killed for blasphemy. (They still are in certain countries.) But most people in the Western world have no notion of what this feels like. They know other people have felt such instant loathing against Satan. But they can't imagine themselves feeling an urge to kill--as pious justice--another human for blasphemy. There's just nothing inside them that corresponds to this. Maybe a little playfulness and a bit of superstition, kid game stuff, but that's about all.

That's what my inner life is like re elitists. I know they exist and I know they feel innate superiority to the masses (both morally and as a human life form) since they are pretty good at expressing this. But, for the life of me, I don't know what that feels like.

I have some theories as to how this comes about. But that's for later. For now, let me get on record that I believe elitism is a mental disorder. I mean that literally. The brain is modular and the different parts need to operate in a certain balance for the brain to function at its best. Elitism destroys that order and throws the balance out of whack.

Also, I think elitism is a silly form of using one's precious unrepeatable life.

Michael

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