presidential debates Debating the Debates: 2016 Presidential debates

[turkeyfoot]

My appraisal of the debates is votes wont change. The nominees positions essentially represent opposing views. Most everyone has their team. 

We've come to expect something more from Trump and his swinging for the fences and less when he is in serious discussions. I would prepare for a bad performance from him, certainly not one where you will get up and cheer. We and Trump have set ourselves up for being over expectant in the political realm. He really is his own worst enemy.

Bob is absolutely correct about Trumps wheelhouse being in a totally different milieu than what he is accustomed to. He is accustomed to having his way in every way, so I expect Clinton will eat his lunch and he will have a kerfluffle, be vague and ill timed and light on salient points that go to the heart of matters. Her demeanor has changed to one who is increasingly calm and in control when personally confronted with him, while he reflects a caricature of himself.

Im now more concerned about the national malaise and depression (emotional/financial) that will set in, in the aftermath of a Clinton win. I recall how bummed I was when ACA passed. You want to talk about hopes getting dashed? There will be plenty of time for it. Youve got to admit its sad to maintain a belief about and involve oneself in things outside of ones control.

I'll be taking a prescription for that little pill, Fook-itALL.

[william.scherk]

On 10/5/2016 at 10:08 AM, william.scherk said:

What will make the second Presidential debate more exciting for me than the first is that it is a re-match for Mr Trump -- I think he will be more 'charged' going in to the town meeting.  He could be bristling with preparation, strategy, zingers, comebacks, gotchas.

I do still think Trump will be 'charged' tomorrow, but I've changed my expectations of prep depth and focus after examining his faux town hall-format video from Thursday.  The pussy-grab tape fall-out will be in the air tomorrow, and judging by the absence of preparation for his town hall-ish thing, there won't be any surprises at the event.  Trump will  go off topic, ramble, lurch into self-praise, re-litigate fall-out and possibly open up discussion about Bill's Penis. He has telescoped his gambits, and has nothing new in the bag.

Why am I so cynical about Trump's upcoming performance? Because of the slackness I saw in Thursday's appearance.  It was not an exciting event. It had close to zero follow-up with the audience members picked to have their question cards read by the moderator.  There was no engagement with the audience members, no exchange, no by-play.  That the moderator read all the questions was feeble and faux. That all the questions were I Love You, Mr Trump softballs was feeble. That Trump twice told the audience (at home) that this was not 'prep' was feeble. 

The first question was 'Did you hold back (at the first debate)?'  and the second question was 'I Love You, what is the worst foreign policy disaster?'  Third question, 'I Love You So Much, what do you say to Latinos who have bought into the mainstream lies about you?'

Fourth, 'What about the middle class?' Fifth ... 'I got a BS in chemistry and can't find a job. How can Your Love help me?'  Sixth, 'R U gonna clean house, I Love You?'

That was half the questions. Did the GOP candidate offer clear, concise and cohesive remarks on the I Love You questions?  Nope. He went a-wandering. Rambling. Winging it and extemporizing. For those of us who have watched at least a dozen rally videos, this was a kind of hybrid of no-Prompter rally and T ball Q and A.  I figure Trump was right to not count it as practice or prep.  There were no challenges for the candidate. 

 

-- looking ahead to tomorrow, I expect a poised Clinton, and a poised Trump.  The centre of gravity in each of them will be revealed, the think-on-your-feet ability.  The questions will almost all be loaded.  There is a great opportunity for both candidates to maul the other and leave a nasty corpse on the stage. Who has  the ability to dominate and dissect the other? How will they have perfected the pose of concern and gravity they mean to bring to the encounter?

I figured before that there would be less attention, lower ratings for the second Clinton-Trump encounter, just because of reversion to the mean, but the fallout, gunpowder, tut-tutting and general ultra-grand hoopla over celebrity pussy-grabbing entitlements in that awful tape will give more eyes, probably, and be very well-watched. 

Where he goes with his answer to the no-surprise question on elite pussy-grab bragging -- that will be good TV.  Can he deliver a self-rebuke that redeems him for those faint-hearted independents and ladies not yet on the Trump train?  I figure it depends on the Trump ability to fake empathy, to self-administer a light spanking, and in so doing crush the thing dead.  I really don't think comparing himself to Bill Clinton is a wise response given the circumstances. In other words, Bill has been redeemed since a while now, having survived his public shaming.

So, the question for me is how does Donald Trump give a reasonable mea culpa on live television. Many people with pussies presently feeling ick at Mr Grabby Hands could be reassured that he knows, in detail, what made the taped remarks wrong and worthy of an apology. He is a big enough man to take the lumps with grace.  

I am second-guessing myself on how long Pussy Hoopla will last. Is it like Mitt Romney's 47% videotape comment, a wound? Is it going to push down the Lady Vote a bit more, turn off otherwise turn on-able independents?  

I detect a touch of hysteria in the extent of the hoopla today, Saturday. The tape utterly dominates every other story. Every last person with a byline is weighing in. Every GOP nobody calling out Trump gets a headline. This is the first time I have seen the full shrieking circus of hoopla-meisters have a complete MediaGasm.  That makes this Thing likely to be prodded and massaged some more in the next weeks of grand hoopla. This might be Ye Eleetz happy button. 

Besides this Thing, there will be a few other pit-traps and leg-traps and baited tunnels tomorrow. No surprises.

[BaalChatzaf]

William. Do  you expect to be amused???

[KorbenDallas]

11 hours ago, william.scherk said:

So, the question for me is how does Donald Trump give a reasonable mea culpa on live television. Many people with pussies presently feeling ick at Mr Grabby Hands could be reassured that he knows, in detail, what made the taped remarks wrong and worthy of an apology. He is a big enough man to take the lumps with grace.  

I am second-guessing myself on how long Pussy Hoopla will last. Is it like Mitt Romney's 47% videotape comment, a wound? Is it going to push down the Lady Vote a bit more, turn off otherwise turn on-able independents?

I think it's very problematic right now and depends how he handles it at the debate tomorrow, which appears that he wants to build the drama for by staying in Trump Tower and avoiding the media.

The reason Romney's 47% stuck was because of the response, it was terrible and he basically restated it publicly:

21:57:30: Good evening. I understand there's been a video that's been on the internet for a few weeks that has attracted some attention and I thought I would make some comments about it. Apparently it's got a snippet of a question and answer session at a fundraising event. It doesn't capture the question so I don't know precisely what was asked but I think it was about my campaign and how I would be able to get a majority of voters to support me. By the way, whoever has released the snippets would, I would certainly appreciate if they would release the whole tape so we could see all of it. I believe the point I was made is that the president starts off with a large number of the voters, 47, 48, 49 percent, something like that. These are people who are in his camp and uh they will vote for him almost no matter what, and I also have a large number of people who will vote for me almost no matter what, at least I hope so, and my campaign effort is to focus on the people in the middle. The people I will try and draw into my campaign are largely people who voted for Barack Obama last time around and who I want to have as part of my campaign (a little jumbled on my audio here, but think he says "if it is to be successful").

21:58:30 So it's a question and answer as I recall about the process of the campaign and how I'm going to get the 51 or 52 percent I need and I point out it's by focusing on those folks that are neither in his camp nor in my camp.  Of course there's a very different approach of the two different campaigns, as I point out I recognize that among those that pay no tax, approximately 47 percent of Americans, I'm not likely to be highly successful with the message of lowering taxes.  That's not as attractive to those who don't pay income taxes as it is to those who do.  And likewise those who are reliant on government are not as attracted to my message of slimming down the size of government.  And so I then focus on those individuals who I believe are most likely to be able to be pulled into my camp and help me win the 51 or 50.1% that I need to become the next President.

I remember thinking that he just handed the presidency over to Obama with these statements, that we'd be stuck with Obama for four more years, and that my taxes would go up.

Concerning Pottymouthgate, Trump likes lady parts and there are a lot of ladies that like guys who like their lady parts---even in the Bible Belt (of whom aren't "deplorables").  With feminism came female promiscuity and I don't think there are many women Trump supporters who care about what he said.  It's the independent women that I think he pissed off, votes that Trump needs, and hopefully they haven't already rage-voted against him with early voting.  We'll have to see tomorrow what Trump really responds with, hopefully it will be better than Romney's.
 

[william.scherk]

Trump again struggles to win more than 90% of vote in DRUDGE poll pic.twitter.com/ALh0aPjHnc

— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) October 10, 2016

[KorbenDallas]

Frank Luntz has a focus group of undecideds on the Kelly File, her expression at the end is priceless:

 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

10 minutes ago, KorbenDallas said:

... her expression at the end is priceless:

Korben,

That same look was on the faces of Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz at the end of the debate, too. Except with them, it wasn't only for a second. They were pissed.

And I loved it, of course...

Michael

[Peter]

Earlier this morning I looked at Drudge and it was 75 to 25 with Trump winning the debate. I looked at Yahoo, and MSN and they were trashing the honorable Mr. Trump and harping on Hillary. Propogandists all . . . though I do trust Drudge. Now, I think the next Rasmussen or Real Clear polls will be out by Wednesday evening. Que sera, sera, whatever will be will be.

What the hell is wrong with Paul Rayon, speaker of the house of cards? He won't campaign for Trump for the next thirty days??? I withdraw my support of Paul Ryan for the next four years.

Michael wrote: That same look was on the faces of Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz at the end of the debate, too. Except with them, it wasn't only for a second. They were pissed. And I loved it, of course... end quote

I saw that too and at times Martha was almost crying during the debate. Their criminal conspiracy was not being enacted on camera, oh boo hoo!

The Fonz network is now saying Paul Ryan IS NOT pulling his support of Trump according to Representative Steven King of Iowa. Rush is just saying some Republicans are saying things to make democrats happy. They have PTSD.

Peter  

[Peter]

I just watched the Frank Luntz video. Megan acted just like Martha Rattass during the debate. She was almost crying! As Louis Armstrong said, "I am jazzed. I see sky's of blue and seas of greeeen, and I say to myself, it's a wonderful world . . . . oh, yeah! 

[william.scherk]

The Jaffy question occurred to me, once I saw the memes of the day ...

What's Trump's strategy here? This tweetstorm only ensures that GOP civil war will remain the dominant story today. pic.twitter.com/l3svfNjlpN

— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) October 11, 2016

21 hours ago, Peter said:

Now, I think the next Rasmussen or Real Clear polls will be out by Wednesday evening. Que sera, sera, whatever will be will be.

As Mr Trump explained in his tweet, he is winning every poll.  He probably means every debate poll or button survey that has come out.  Rasmussen has called in already. From RCP right now:

Tuesday, October 11

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	The Atlantic/PRRI	Clinton 49, Trump 38	Clinton +11
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	LA Times/USC Tracking	Clinton 43, Trump 45	Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Rasmussen Reports	Clinton 44, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2	Clinton +5
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Susquehanna	Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 4, Stein 2	Clinton +4
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Roanoke College	Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 7, Stein 1	Clinton +9
Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty	Susquehanna*	Toomey 42, McGinty 38	Toomey +4

Monday, October 10

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Clinton 46, Trump 35, Johnson 9, Stein 2	Clinton +11
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Clinton 52, Trump 38	Clinton +14
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Rasmussen Reports	Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 2	Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	NBC News/SM	Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 3	Clinton +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	NBC News/SM	Clinton 51, Trump 44	Clinton +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson	High Point	Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 8	Clinton +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Loras	Clinton 43, Trump 35, Johnson 8, Stein 2	Clinton +8
North Carolina Senate - Burr vs. Ross	High Point*	Burr 47, Ross 42	Burr +5
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. Cooper	High Point*	Cooper 49, McCrory 42	Cooper +7
Wisconsin Senate - Johnson vs. Feingold	Loras	Feingold 40, Johnson 45	Johnson +5
Iowa Senate - Grassley vs. Judge	Des Moines Register	Grassley 53, Judge 36	Grassley +17
2016 Generic Congressional Vote	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Democrats 49, Republicans 42	Democrats +7

Sunday, October 9

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Economist/YouGov	Clinton 44, Trump 38, Johnson 5, Stein 1	Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	Economist/YouGov	Clinton 48, Trump 43	Clinton +5
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	CBS News/YouGov	Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2	Clinton +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	CBS News/YouGov	Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 4, Stein 1	Clinton +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	Des Moines Register	Trump 43, Clinton 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2	Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	NBC/WSJ/Marist	Clinton 45, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 3	Clinton +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	NBC/WSJ/Marist	Clinton 49, Trump 37, Johnson 6, Stein 4	Clinton +12
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein	CBS News/YouGov	Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 4, Stein 2	Clinton +8

[william.scherk]

Remember that boring first debate? It has a twin, same eyes, same hair, same format, coming in a few short days. No, not the Ryan/Trump debate, the other one. If true to design, it should go something like this:

And while you are waiting for the joke, or considered impressions of the second debate, first I must wreck the frame:

 

[Peter]

“Clinton campaign email declares Trump campaign dead.”

Any predictions for the last debate? I think Hillary will provoke Trump, look and act all innocent, and then he may . . .  may I say . . . fall for it.

Peter

From Donald Trump to my inbox: PETER, Either we win this election or we lose our country. I want you to know that we will end this election by fighting as hard as we can. I promise to get up on that stage tomorrow and fight for the American people. I promise to give it my all. Tomorrow is not only my final debate with Hillary. It’s also the FINAL FEC deadline of the entire election. And just like the first two debates, my son, Eric, is once again going to give me a list of every single supporter who stepped up at this critical moment right . . . .

From Rasmussen, Tuesday, October 18, 2016: Individual states will ultimately tell the tale, but right now the presidential race nationally is about as tight as it can be.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch survey finds Hillary Clinton with 42% support among Likely U.S. Voters and Donald Trump with 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up seven percent (7%), while Green Party nominee Jill Stein again has two percent (2%) of the vote, according to our latest national telephone and online survey. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Yesterday, Clinton took a two-point lead – 43% to 41% - after ending last week behind her Republican rival by an identical margin. She jumped ahead by seven at the beginning of last week following the airing of a video showing Trump making graphic sexual remarks, but the race evened out again following the candidates’ second debate.  Their final debate is tomorrow night.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters say they are now sure how they are going to vote, and among these voters, Clinton and Trump are dead even at 47% apiece. Johnson gets five percent (5%) support, Stein two percent (2%). Among voters who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 37%, Trump 30%, Johnson 26% and Stein seven percent (7%).

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. All three nights in the latest survey follow the release of a New York Times story alleging Trump’s sexual harassment of several women. Trump has adamantly denied the allegations. Clinton, meanwhile, has been beset by WikiLeaks’ release of hundreds of internal Democratic Party e-mails, raising further legal and ethical questions about her and her campaign . . . .  

[william.scherk]

Tonight in Las Vegas, the candidates have a final face off.  The moderator is Chris Wallace of FoxNews. 

I am trying to view the event from a Trumpian point of view, and with some Red Hat assumptions. Trump obviously "won" the first and second encounters, if you measure by the eminently hackable "rigged" pushbutton online script calculators. So, he will obviously win the third debate, hands down. This time Drudge will report 98% winning and the other pushbuttons will be Javascript/Tor-ed to reflect that reality. So, that part will be great. Spontaneously  (well, not quite), ordinary Americans of all stripes will be drawn to enter their single precious vote (while the bots and I help everything along to a comforting conclusion). I am going to vote repeatedly and persistently, as is my democratic right.

 Now that we know he will win this debate, why did he win it?  I will continue from the point of view of a Trumpistanian.

First, he won the debate because he skillfully parried every provocation about the Ladies I'd Love To Grab.  By bringing all sixty-five victims of Bill's Penis to Las Vegas, Mrs Clinton had nothing to say  to Mr Trump on the subject. Her epilepsy and Parkinsons may have been covered over by the injections, but the brain-freeze was still uncanny. She looked like she had just been grabbed by the you know what and had nothing, nothing to say. She grinned freakishly, looked at her mini-Teleprompter on her rigged podium, listened for the backstage guidance in her earbud, but nothing came out of her mouth. That was the moment.   She had no defence. Bill''s Penis loomed over the auditorium.

Secondly, he won the debate because he prepared a soaring, positive message that looked forward, not backward. Again, he pledged to use the power of his office to punish his political enemies. That was the other moment. Breakthrough.

Yes, there were other moments when Mrs Clinton was wounded, faltering, confused, incoherent, angry, reactive, off-topic and, well, not quite right in the head, raging and nasty.  But they weren't as satisfying as those other two moments.

Finally, with that Red Hat temporarily off, and my vantage returned to 49 degrees north facing south, I dig out the other moments that told me Donald Trump won everything -- the moments, the  night, the series, the championship.

But, I think I have to wait a few hours for that. In the meantime, I am going to make a list of Who Won insta-polls and gotcha buttons so I can vote vote vote and then vote a thousand times more. If anyone wants some guidance in how to manipulate 'the polls,' let me know backstage. Reddit and 4chan will be leading the rigging exercise.

[BaalChatzaf]

 

 

What is a "Red Hat Assumption"?

[KorbenDallas]

 

What is a "Red Hat Assumption"?

Thinking like a Trump supporter

[william.scherk]

I don't think every Trump supporter makes Red Hat Assumptions as spoofed.  I was spoofing a fabulous, somewhat zany partisan position I think we might see during and following the Vegas event.  --  I too have partisan assumptions under my beaver hat. .And a set of wish fulfillment fantasies. And other lurid biases. But what use would those be right now?  I want to interrogate reality, not project my hopes upon it.

 If I was orchestrating or advising for a Clinton-supporting narrative dominance tonight, I would have a jamboree of surrogates, agents and mouthpieces mobbing the after-debate party in the Spin Room.  This is where some of the weirdest moments of Hoopla happen.  There is no equivalent of this post-debate media-scrum Spin Room in any other major democracy, I don't think. This is the last time that tent will have hosted the full spectacle of Story.  The amount of political dog-leg-humping will be fearsome.  The 'conventional wisdom' will emerge from this circus/ordeal and its drains, however, as America turns another page on the calendar.

It would be fun to have a mic on a panel of OL members watching this final encounter tonight, free-style. 

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

 

What is a "Red Hat Assumption"?

Bob,

I think he is referring to the red baseball hats.

Michael 

[KorbenDallas]

Just saw on Fox the Clinton campaign expects Trump to be in "full scorched earth mode" for this debate.  He needs to be careful with that, it energizes Dems and his own supporters are already with him.  I think he'd stand better chances if he struck a balance between dystopian America and delivering policy in a presidential tone to undecideds, independents, millennials, and cross-over Dems.

I heard Hillary has been in debate prep for 5 days, so she's prepared as ever.  Meanwhile on Hair Force One, Trump was flying to rallies.  I'm assuming he was preparing.  Here are the topics and some quick predictions, assuming Trump prepared:

• debt and entitlements - Trump will win if he focuses on entitlements
• immigration - Tie.
• the economy - Trump should win if he prepared
• the Supreme Court - Thinking we might see new angles in the arguments here, not sure
• foreign hot spots - Hillary exposes Trump for his lack of foreign policy knowledge
• fitness to be president:
  

[william.scherk]

Korben listed the subject areas for the debate segments, and assumed a Trump well-prepared:

On 10/19/2016 at 5:56 PM, KorbenDallas said:

• debt and entitlements - Trump will win if he focuses on entitlements
• immigration - Tie.
• the economy - Trump should win if he prepared
• the Supreme Court - Thinking we might see new angles in the arguments here, not sure
• foreign hot spots - Hillary exposes Trump for his lack of foreign policy knowledge
• fitness to be president:

Entitlements, immigration, economy, Supremes came and went. Of all of the topics, Trump was strongest on the Supreme Court in re Roe v Wade. He made a graphic statement about babies being torn from the womb on the last day of pregnancy. Clinton was also strong in response. She kind of personalized or even personified an Everywoman who doesn't want men making decisions about their reproductive 'rights.'  

Foreign hot spots mentioned were Iraq and Syria, of course. Did anyone dominate those exchanges? Not really, but they gave great clues to a future conduct of foreign wars. Trump would be secretive, cards to chest, seeking to ally with strong forces. Clinton seemed to turn all of his Syria/Iraq answers back, and goaded him using the word puppet in relation to Putin.  That obviously stung Mr Trump, but he did not adequately refute her insinuation.

I personally was deeply disappointed in Trump's estimation of Syrian president Assad.  Yes, he is backed by Russia, yes, he is 'strong,' but to hear Trump valorize this strength disturbed me. What did he think was going on in Syria with Assad and Russia? What would be his attitude towards the belligerents (outside ISIS)?  

Hillary Clinton was on the Kerry 'side' at State. She argued for a more robust US response to the repression and incipient civil war before she left.  That side lost to the weak side of the Obama bench of advisors.  Those who wanted only the least American footprint on Syrian events.

Re fitness to be president, having a murky relationship with what I consider a dangerous adversary (in Russia), that is a question for me.  I don't trust Trump to understand the  various ways that Russia has flouted the law and acts counter to the spirit of justice and democracy. 

As a Canadian, I fear his attitude towards NATO, and I fear that in office he would make 'peace' with Russia in the Ukraine, throwing a Canadian ally over the side.

On my own notes, I find a few phrases underlined.  I was looking for Clinton provocations and the handling of such. I triple underlined "Effective, strategic and ruthless" ... and came up with takehome standouts.

The 'puppet' exchange.  That was uncanny.

The 'babies ripped from womb" exchange.  That had to have made some other watchers' ping

The 'suspense' exchange.. That one went double ping.

I didn't really understand why Mr Trump chose to open that door. The remarks are going to define the debate outfall. They lead to more fractures in the GOP coalition, such as it remains. Trump gains a few new repudiations for his remarks. Why? What does it gain him otherwise? Put your undecided hat on -- what are those remarks designed to do but deepen a lack of trust?

For the first time, I get a queasy sensation of a landslide in the making. A landslide would repudiate the Democratic machine if for Trump. A landslide would repudiate Trump's sore loser theatrics, if for Clinton.