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BREXIT and Trump

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On 12/19/2018 at 10:22 AM, william.scherk said:

Here is a possible paradox ... in what is called the "Backstop" in EU-UK negotiations. It concerns the changes that must and must not occur at the Ireland/Northern Ireland border.  How can free passage of Irish EU citizens (Irish citizenship may be claimed by any Northern Ireland citizen) to and from the UK be maintained after a Brexit deal? Moreover, how can the border be maintained/done away with if there is a no-deal Brexit?

The United Kingdom is due to depart the European Union on March 29, or I should say scheduled to depart. There may very well be a delay of the date on the calendar of three months. Basically, the Prime Minister's first 'plan' failed to pass the Commons. She is presenting a tweaked 'plan' for a vote presently, and will then offer a 'no whip' vote on a delay measure. In between, she has planned a vote to see if parliamentarians are up to approving a 'no-deal' deal -- ie, crashing out of the EU, proceeding without a map of transition or any formalized divorce agreement.

So, everything is going along so far so good. 

On the other hand, both the Conservatives and Labour have lost handfuls of MPs who renounced their former parties, since the most recent Brexit lurches.

A no-whip vote is when the Prime Minister frees ruling party MPs to vote their individual druthers, without discipline from the top. This means the delay vote is about the only vote that should be assumed to pass the Commons if the tweaked Plan doesn't.

Finally, note that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has declared the need for a second referendum, which is just historically-precedented enough to allow him to whip his party his party if he can force a motion.

Prime Minister May must be having the time of her life. About the only thing that could top this week would be May calling a snap election.

brexitWTF.png

For more on the finesse/fumble with the Irish border 'backstop' ... ⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜

Edited by william.scherk
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On 2/26/2019 at 8:03 PM, william.scherk said:

The United Kingdom is due to depart the European Union on March 29, or I should say scheduled to depart. There may very well be a delay of the date on the calendar of three months. Basically, the Prime Minister's first 'plan' failed to pass the Commons. She is presenting a tweaked 'plan' for a vote presently, and will then offer a 'no whip' vote on a delay measure. In between, she has planned a vote to see if parliamentarians are up to approving a 'no-deal' deal -- ie, crashing out of the EU, proceeding without a map of transition or any formalized divorce agreement.

So, everything is going along so far so good. 

Yes, today is March 12, the day of a Commons vote on the negotiated deal between May and the EU.  Guess what?

brexitShamblesMar12.png

First vote failed. Next step, no-deal Brexit goes to a vote.  What a shambles. 

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1 hour ago, william.scherk said:

First vote failed. Next step, no-deal Brexit goes to a vote.  What a shambles. 

This is what the next steps are in the Brexit drama ...

_105995691_brexit_flowchart_what_now_11mar_long_v1_640-nc.png

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Think of all the money and effort these elites are deploying to get to No Deal.

What a waste.

They don't like it one bit that the people are refusing to be led by them.

But what the hell, it's their money and time. If they push too hard to thwart the vote of the people they thought they were ruling and still want to rule, though, it could get real ugly, especially when they discover how little they actually rule.

They screwed up.

Michael

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5 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Think of all the money and effort these elites are deploying to get to No Deal.

What a waste.

They don't like it one bit that the people are refusing to be led by them.

But what the hell, it's their money and time. If they push too hard to thwart the vote of the people they thought they were ruling and still want to rule, though, it could get real ugly, especially when they discover how little they actually rule.

They screwed up.

Michael

The Fourth Reich isn't going to just give up Britain.

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22 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Think of all the money and effort these elites are deploying to get to No Deal.

Extraordinary moments in the British House of Commons. They just voted to reject a No-Deal Brexit. Bloomberg and many other outlets are carrying the ongoing drama live ...

LOCK THE DOORS!!!!

Edited by william.scherk
Click the Bloomberg tweet if you want to view the live event ...

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On 3/13/2019 at 12:22 PM, william.scherk said:

Extraordinary moments in the British House of Commons.

Followed by more extraordinary actions in the British House of Commons. The Speaker denied the government a third "meaningful vote" on the Brexit deal negotiated by Theresa May.  The first two votes failed, the second by a large majority.  
 

The result is ... disarray. Brexit: Bercow chucks a hulking great spanner in the works

More reporting on the shambles ... 

Edited by william.scherk

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The Brexit schmozzle continues to schmoz.  Parliament 'took back the power' from the Prime Minister, and forced a round of "indicative" votes -- ie, 'which of these options do you favour?"

So ... every one of the indicative votes failed. None of the options were favoured:

What happens now?  Good question, no answer comes to mind immediately. Theresa May has declared that she will step down as prime minister -- if the Withdrawal Agreement she negotiated with the EU passes the House of Commons. 

And if it does not ... barring any other votes passing any deal, the UK will crash out of the EU on ... April 12 (or, yes, on May 22, the day of European Parliament elections if -- if if if -- another vote succeeds in passing the WA).

A look at the options in slightly more detail ...

_106212275_newindicative_multi_three_1-n

-- and one more image to show the various options  ...

_106190202_brexit_flowchart_next_steps_26_march_v5_-3x640-nc.png

Edited by william.scherk
Added graphic of top three Commons vote-getters; added schematic of decision processes

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On 3/12/2019 at 4:46 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

But what the hell, it's their money and time.

There won't be enough francs or pounds to buy snails. Oh, Yeah. Did anybody notice I got rid of that darn cat? Though she lost an ear she is still thriving. White cat. Cancer. Real white cat? Cancer. Who knew? Sparks's other ear is mottled but not cancerous.    

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Today is the day after the day the United Kingdom was supposed to have left the European Union. 

The way forward is ... unclear.

111_223372-1160x1219.jpg

Brexit news latest: Theresa May faces calls for cross-party 'unity government' to end deadlock after deal rejected again

-- from a story on the person who proposed a 'national unity government' ... 

Quote

[...] The EU has given the U.K. a deadline of April 12 to either leave with no deal or propose a different plan. That would require a lengthy extension to the Article 50 negotiating period, meaning that the U.K. would have to field candidates in the upcoming European Parliament election in May.

On Monday, MPs will again take control of the parliamentary timetable from the government to hold a series of votes that could yield a majority for a different form of Brexit. In the first round of "indicative votes" on Wednesday, a proposal for a customs union with the EU put forward by veteran Tory MP and former Chancellor was just eight votes short of a majority.

May has refused to be bound by the process even if it does yield majority support for an alternative course of action.

"If the government refused and Theresa May felt she could not implement what parliament identified as a way of leaving the EU then we have to think very hard about whether a cross-party coalition ... could do that in order to make sure the U.K. does leave the EU in an orderly fashion," she said.

[...]

 

Edited by william.scherk
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Take one portion of schmozzle and one portion of shambles, and shake shake shake. 

"May asks for Labour's help on Brexit."

 

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Theresa May has obtained an extension of the Brexit schedule, until All Hallows Eve.  If she can maneuver the Commons into accepting her negotiated withdrawal agreement before that time, Brexit will happen in an 'orderly fashion. 

And I am Marie of Roumania ...

 

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On 4/11/2019 at 8:41 AM, william.scherk said:

Theresa May has obtained an extension of the Brexit schedule, until All Hallows Eve.  If she can maneuver the Commons into accepting her negotiated withdrawal agreement before that time, Brexit will happen in an 'orderly fashion. 

Facts be damned. What does "our side" have to say about the process?

Did the European Union 'force' Britain to hold elections for the European Parliament?  

No taxation without representation!

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How has the Prime Minister managed to hold on so long?  And will intrepid Paul Joseph Watson of Summit.news be able to unscramble the details of her announcement?

The 'Socratic Method' may well be deprecated, I expect.  

"You get to vote on my cough new deal, or no deal."
"You yes you get to vote on the negotiated deal. You yes you, dear voter, can also vote to pull the plug."

CABAL Psy-Ops Trap-door Betrays Democracy!

Edited by william.scherk
Added link to PJW's smashing new advocacy site

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Who will lead the Tory party in the UK?  Theresa May resigns.

 

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So, how are things going with Brexit?

To put it simply, there have been a few bumps in the road since my last post above. The biggest bump yesterday was that the Conservative Party lost its majority in the House of Commons, and thus lost its control of the 'order paper.' That means the government has no power to force anything that the rest of Parliament does not agree.

The latest bump is a bill sent to the House of Lords.  In a nutshell it says there will not be a no-deal Brexit come Hallowe'en. 

He can indeed 'call for' a fresh round of elections, but since he cannot command the 2/3 Commons majority vote necessary to overturn the UK's 'fixed elections' timetable ... the road ahead is pretty obscure. 

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Their system of government has worked well for centuries but ours is better, to my way of thinking. Though it would be nice to kick some arse out of office if he botches everything, without going through an impeachment process. 

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On 9/4/2019 at 1:30 PM, william.scherk said:

The latest bump is a bill sent to the House of Lords.  In a nutshell it says there will not be a no-deal Brexit come Hallowe'en. 

The bill sailed through the Lords ...

 

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ObjectLiv_Brexit_Quote_Hilite.png

This tweet is from one of the estimated 45 million UK citizens who are not pleased with anything in Parliament. The red rose means this guy is as close as you can get to communism without becoming Bernie Sanders ...

The relish with which Jones trims down his list of facts should not obscure the facts. Everything put to Parliament failed -- May's biggest move, the free-vote on no-deal Brexit -- failed. 

Johnson has lost control of Parliament, but is still in titular charge of government. 

The most likely or probable outcome is anyone's guess. My own rough guess is based on the unremitting failure of any government to get agreement with the various parliamentary blocs and interests. If everyone has failed so far, shouldn't we accept failure as almost fated, in the circumstances?

Johnson fractured his own party, and has been unable to control the order paper since. Can he regain leadership of the House of Commons and Lords? The Queen is duty bound to take the advice of her ministers, so anything Johnson asks of her will be granted -- like a snap election (but of course only after he can pass legislation overruling the current 'fixed term Parliament' law).

The best option for getting the exact 'deal' he wants out of the EU -- so-called hard Brexit -- is to obey the letter spelled out in the law passed by both houses and assented to by the Queen: if no deal by the trigger date, Boris Johnson must send a letter to Brussels requesting an extension till the end of January.

390px-MODIS_-_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_-_2012-06-04_during_heat_wave.jpg

In Canada we always imagine various exit strategies of our provinces, should they wish to leave the federation.  Alberta and Quebec are the restive territories. In the deals envisioned in Quebec, the divorced citizens would share citizenship and mobility coast to coast to coast. The first deal was a coral garden of extrusions called 'sovereignty-association' ... the second a rather more straightforward exit plan that -- surprise surprise -- would retain the Canadian dollar and joint-citizenship divorce. Kind of the present Irish system where the lawful border has essentially disappeared as a barrier or impediment between the peoples south and north.

Sometimes a border has to harden, despite outcries and imagined pain and horror. I think Johnson is willing to enforce a hard border with the EU. I just don't know if he can win a fight right now.

If anyone else plays close attention to the Brexit drama in the UK, do you have any guesses?

The prime minister would like to get out on Hallowe'en without a 'back-stop.'  This is unacceptable in the republic of Ireland, thus also in the EU. It's a built-in problem in the British Isles constitutional strait-jacket.

Edited by william.scherk
Stuck in photo-link of British Isles, corrected some errors, tweaked a phrase or two

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