America: The Accidental Superpower

[PDS]

I would like to offer a potential parallel track to much of the Tactical Trump Talk here at OL.

I recently read this book.  The upshot of The Accidental Superpower is that the America most of us have known is about to change.   Over the coming decades, America's role in the world will recede to, in effect, a Fortress America.    As the authors says:   "In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy — alone among the developed nations — that is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.   For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America’s geography is simply sublime."

Some may recognize that, if the author is correct, Donald Trump is more of a canary in the coal mine than he has been given credit for, and, even if he doesn't get elected, he is bringing into the conversation of American politics a number of items that are (1) consistent this book and (2) reflective of a coming world order that appears likely by many objective indicators.   

The author (Peter Zeihan--who I highly doubt is a Trump fan) seems to be of a libertarian political bent as well, if that matters.

Let me know if you would like me to walk through this book chapter by chapter as fodder for discussion.    

As I said above, a discussion of this book would be very similar to the issues being discussed in the current campaign with the added benefit of taking Trump's foibles and the usual horse-race considerations out of the mix. 

[PDS]

As one teaser for our Canadian friends, the author says America will become Great Again in part by taking a big bite out of Alberta.  

[Brant Gaede]

5 minutes ago, PDS said:

As one teaser for our Canadian friends, the author says America will become Great Again in part by taking a big bite out of Alberta.  

 Is it a "free state"?

[PDS]

2 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

 

 

 Is it a "free state"?

The author claims that Alberta is likely to approach us because of frustration with its lack of respect and subsidizing of the rest of Canada (going from memory here, but that is the gist).   If I am recalling correctly, he believes USA and Alberta will form something along the lines of a senior partner/junior partner joint-venture, politically. 

[william.scherk]

Western separatism is never completely dead and Trudeau's election gave impetus to new -- if not fresh or healthy -- shoots of independent-minded folks, some xtreme libertarian, others sovereign citizen bozaques.  It is a hard road that some like to travel, and let's face it, the Federal Plot against Free Alberta is large by all appearances, with a socialist Notley and a liberal++ Trudeau holding respective provincial and federal sceptres of power. It is a gruesome situation for Those People.

To the thesis of the book's chapter on Alberta, some off-the-cuff Trump-like reading off a Teleprompter follows, in sonar, in reaction to PDS's fun thread opener and qualifiers. I'd like to check over the main claim that young and plump Alberta would be happy as America's 51st Sister-Wife.  With apologies to those who don't like extended metaphors ... why should she trade down in power and status? Would she really end up less marital-raped by a different Big Fed? 

I am going to read this off a Teleprompter. I wonder if I can capture the essence of a 'conversational' voice, as opposed to a reading or speechifying voice. 

Here goes.

Dude got a splash in Canadian national media, with the biggest an interview in the National Post. I'd have to read his chapters on Canada to get a grip on his Drumpfian projections. It sounds like the winner of all the bad things to come is America. Given we are stitched together quite tightly regionally (and with Mexico under NAFTA) I can see that extended ... the winner of all the bad things to come is North America.  I like that sunny optimism in the face of hellacious future projections. 

As for the Alberta willing bride of an expanding American polygamy, yeah, why stop at fifty states. From the US point of view it always makes sense, always. From the Albertan point of view it is the sunshiney glistening promise of the next valley over, and so is never completely absent from mind. But in reality, I would say the two peaks of Alberta secession spirit are firmly behind us. The constituency for marrying fifty sister-wives, before coming under the authority of Daddy DC, is smallish now. The greatest surge of separatism in Alberta was turned into electoral gold and power later on, but in its heyday was simply not a majority preference. It was a 'card' to be played against resurgent Quebec and the whole awful Liberal reign of the 20th century.

A province like Alberta, modern Alberta, has power in the Canadian federal arrangements. If it could not retain its special provincial sovereignties over resources (contra the US constitutional framework), if it had to be with the other wives subordinate to a now much larger and more powerful patriarch, what would you do?

We should ask Jules.  The only Albertans I know intimately are Red Tories or Sanders-ish nutzo socialistas.  They would rather sell their children that become a concubine to DC. 

I say too much, again. I shall record some thoughts and retreat to my sonic submarine lair ...  

 

Edited April 29, 2016 by william.scherk
I just can't shut up.

[PDS]

Although there hasn't been a torrent of enthusiastic interest in this thread as of yet for this thread, I intend to post a chapter-by-chapter outline of the book after the middle of this week.   Reality and work are intervening until then.    Sorry for the delay to both of the faithful participants so far...

[moralist]

On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 0:28 PM, PDS said:

...Alberta is likely to approach us because of frustration with its lack of respect and subsidizing of the rest of Canada... 

...so it can subsidize the rest of the US?    

Out of the frying pan... into the fire.

 

Greg

[Jules Troy]

Um...I would be happy as an Albertan if we became a state.  Our biggest problem is getting oil to market.  Blocked by BC.  Blocked by Quebec(I'd like to block transfer payments from Alberta to Quebec, seeing as they take our money and buy oil from the ME. Instead...)

Better taxes, being able to write off interest on a mortgage. 30 year mortgages available,  tossing out Commie Notley...win win?

[william.scherk]

On 4/30/2016 at 0:49 PM, PDS said:

Sorry for the delay to both of the faithful participants so far...

De nada, PDS.