Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 There are approximately 2, 200,000 registered Republicans in NY State .... In 2012, the turnout was 150,000, or- 6.8% Anyone want to predict how many delegate Trump will receive of the 95. Remember, there 27 CD's with 3 each equaling 81... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Congressional District Vote: Each congressional district will allocate three delegates. As with the statewide vote, a victory with >50% of the vote or where only one candidate reaches 20% makes it winner take all for those three delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, the candidate in 2nd place receives one. Quote A week out from the New York Republican primary, Donald Trump has a commanding lead in the statewide polls. The 270toWin New York Average has him a few points above 50%, with John Kasich and Ted Cruz nearly tied at about 20% each. As it turns out, those two numbers -- 20% and 50% -- are quite important when looking at how the state allocates its 95 delegates to the Republican Convention. Whether looking at the statewide vote, or any of the states's 27 congressional districts, 20% is the minimum threshold needed to receive any delegates, while exceeding 50% gets a candidate all of them. Statewide Vote: 14 delegates will be allocated based on the primary results across the state. If a candidate receives greater than 50%, as Trump seems positioned to do, he receives all 14. That is also going to be the case if Trump doesn't reach 50% but is the only candidate to receive 20%. As a practical matter, with only three candidates set to receive almost all the vote, this 2nd set of circumstances is unlikely to occur. If neither Kasich or Cruz reach 20%, Trump should easily meet the 50% threshold. Therefore, if Trump doesn't exceed 50%, the 14 delegates will be proportionately split between any of the candidates that reach the 20% minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 CD !8 (D), 21 (R) and 23 (R) are contested districts so the turnout should be stimulated even though their primaries are in the fall of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDS Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 This all sounds "rigged" in favor of Trump to me!! How else might one explain the idea that Cruz and Kasich are going to lose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 16 minutes ago, PDS said: This all sounds "rigged" in favor of Trump to me!! How else might one explain the idea that Cruz and Kasich are going to lose? Lol...very nice counselor... Have you heard about this 9th Circuit Appellate decision in Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Gordon: Quote The appeals court refused to overturn the grant of summary judgment, though it did remand for a new look at the disgorgement amount. The appellate panel also ruled against Gordon on his claim that the CFPB lacked authority because its director was initially appointed as a result of an invalid recess appointment. The appeals court noted that CFPB Director Robert Cordray was later renominated and confirmed by the Senate, after which he confirmed the decision to charge Gordon. That “resolves any appointments clause deficiencies,” the 9th Circuit said. I followed that recess appointment issue and it dropped off the radar, now I know why. The lawyer situation is an interesting case. Quote A federal appeals court has upheld the authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in an appeal by a California lawyer ordered to disgorge $11.4 million he collected from underwater homeowners. The San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in a 2-1 decision (PDF) on April 14, the Recorder (sub. req.) reports. The court ruled in an appeal by lawyer Chance Gordon, who was accused of using deceptive marketing materials that misled underwater homeowners about his ability to help them. A federal judge had granted summary judgment to the CFPB in its civil enforcement action against Gordon. The judge also ordered Gordon to pay $11.4 million in restitution and disgorgement. http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lawyer_ordered_to_disgorge_11.4m_to_homeowners_loses_challenge_to_consumer/?utm_source=maestro&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDS Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 No I hadn't see that. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Just spoke with one of my teams who are Republican Election Inspectors in the 20th CD in Albany. As of 4 PM 2 Republicans out of 150 registered Republicans, they were the first two (2) that voted so far. 140 Democrats had voted! A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 I think Trump can take 85-87 of the 95 delegates. He needs to run at about 54-55% to accomplish that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 4 hours ago, Selene said: Just spoke with one of my teams who are Republican Election Inspectors in the 20th CD in Albany. As of 4 PM 2 Republicans out of 150 registered Republicans, they were the first two (2) that voted so far. 140 Democrats had voted! A... Just spoke with another team in the 20th CD. Big Democratic district with lot's of teachers and Albany government "meaning political hacks" workers. In this district there were approximately 2000 registered voters. Of those 2000, approximately 140 are Republicans. Almost 1100 votes were cast which is an immense turnout for a primary. So, my guess is that this is very good for Evita. Their turnout was almost 60%. A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 3 hours ago, Selene said: Just spoke with another team in the 20th CD. Big Democratic district with lot's of teachers and Albany government "meaning political hacks" workers. In this district there were approximately 2000 registered voters. Of those 2000, approximately 140 are Republicans. Almost 1100 votes were cast which is an immense turnout for a primary. So, my guess is that this is very good for Evita. Their turnout was almost 60%. A... I was flipping through the "news" channels for certain results and I see Karl "I am whiter than my white board" Rove pointing to his board at the 20 CD saying that is one of the CD's that Kasich could win a delegate. I guess it was pure luck that I sent my teams there, right Karl? A.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDS Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 16 hours ago, Selene said: I was flipping through the "news" channels for certain results and I see Karl "I am whiter than my white board" Rove pointing to his board at the 20 CD saying that is one of the CD's that Kasich could win a delegate. I guess it was pure luck that I sent my teams there, right Karl? A.... Adam: is there any chance Trump can take Hillary in NY state? What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Campbell Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Yup, good question. Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 3 hours ago, PDS said: Adam: is there any chance Trump can take Hillary in NY state? What say you? Yes. It is dependent on her being the nominee. It will also be on who will be on two (2) of the "minor" party lines. It would still be close. A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDS Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 On 4/21/2016 at 7:24 PM, Selene said: Yes. It is dependent on her being the nominee. It will also be on who will be on two (2) of the "minor" party lines. It would still be close. A... Well, that would sure be a game changer. I defer to your expertise on this. I would be very happy to be wrong about the extent of any predicted Hillary landslide (including my own). Anything that might salvage an R majority in the Senate might salvage the Supreme Court--at least from 2016-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 3 hours ago, PDS said: Well, that would sure be a game changer. I defer to your expertise on this. I would be very happy to be wrong about the extent of any predicted Hillary landslide (including my own). Anything that might salvage an R majority in the Senate might salvage the Supreme Court--at least from 2016-2020. Yes. NY, Pennsylvania and New Jersey are in play at a slim probability. It would be a plurality and not a majority. Evita starts out nationally with a 43-45% base. Each targeted independent party line need to bleed of 2-3% of some of her core constituencies and those three states can be flipped. It will still take a maximum effort on our side at turning out our vote and suppressing Evita's vote. It is doable though. A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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