Selene Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Fascinating process akin to Salmon swimming upstream to spawn, or, if you are a full fledged member of the progressive marxist Democratic Party, there is a lot riding on this Tuesday. It is a leap year folks. I will try to lay out each state and the candidates by tomorrow. William, any help you can provide, I would be grateful to accept. A... Post Script: FLASH - 'ole dog taught new trick... William succinctly walked me through how to do this back stage... Thanks - no more prolixity!! Put that in your milkshake Mr. Eight PMer, aka O'Reilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 (edited) Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Carson Fiorina Huckabee Paul FEB. 1 Iowa 7 8 7 1 1 3 1 1 1 FEB. 9 N.H. 11 3 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 FEB. 20 S.C. 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FEB. 23 Nev. 14 6 7 1 0 1 0 0 0 WSS Guess ALL BELOW 546 27 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 MARCH 1 Ala. 50 delegates50 Alaska 28 delegates24 Ark. 40 delegates40 Ga. 76 delegates76 Mass. 42 delegates29 Minn. 38 delegates26 Okla. 43 delegates43 Tenn. 58 delegates58 Texas 155 delegates135 Vt. 16 delegates16 Va. 49 delegates49 Edited February 29, 2016 by william.scherk Updated table my own guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thanks William: I will just arbitrarily set the time at 7 AM EST on Tuesday March 1st, 2016...I should put a countdown clock on it, I actually found one that an idiot like me could set up in an e-mail, lol. A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 (edited) Edited February 29, 2016 by william.scherk Fixed incorrect end time ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 The clock is inaccurate. You have till 7 AM EST on March 1st 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, Selene said: The clock is inaccurate. You have till 7 AM EST on March 1st 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Bissell Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 OK, here are my picks: Alabama: Trump 40, Rubio 24, Cruz 23, Carson 10, Kasich 3 Alaska: Trump 32, Cruz 29, Rubio 26, Carson 9, Kasich 4 Arkansas: Cruz 31, Trump 26, Rubio 25, Carson 14, Kasich 4 Colorado: Trump 30, Cruz 28, Rubio 24, Carson 10, Kasich 8 Georgia: Trump 39, Rubio 25, Cruz 22, Carson 8, Kasich 4 Massachusetts: Trump 48, Rubio 21, Kasich 16, Cruz 10, Carson 5 Minnesota: Rubio 27, Cruz 24, Trump 21, Kasich 16, Carson 12 Oklahoma: Trump 32, Cruz 30, Rubio 26, Carson 7, Kasich 5 Tennessee: Trump 39, Cruz 23, Rubio 22, Carson 12, Kasich 4 Texas: Cruz 37, Trump 27, Rubio 24, Kasich 7, Carson 5 Vermont: Trump 35, Rubio 25, Cruz 20, Kasich 15, Carson 5 Virginia: Trump 40, Rubio 26, Cruz 20, Kasich 8, Carson 6 Cruz takes Arkansas and Texas, Rubio takes Minnesota, Trump takes the other 9 states. [Note: some withdrawn candidates still on ballots. Negligible percentages on them, didn't bother.] REB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brant Gaede Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 opps! wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Real Clear Politics has an even better interactive Super Tuesday delegate counter than 538. You can enter your percentage guesses for each state, and the software updates the delegate totals by the state rules ... (I am feeding in Reb's percentage estimates, and the model spits out delegate numbers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 3 hours ago, william.scherk said: Thanks William... A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 (edited) I finished fatfingering Reb's data into the RCP delegate-counting machine. I may have made one or two mistakes, but I also corrected Reb's over-100% bork in one state, and swapped in Wyoming for Colorada, using the RCP average. So this is what Reb's numbers -- on the whole very favourable to Mr Trump, did not result in anything near to my gut-read earlier that Trump could pull in 567 delegates after all the heats are run on March 1st. This is a biggish screenshot of Reb's results. If anyone wants me to enter their guesses, I will offer a quid pro quo -- a brief interview with me and the Robots on March 2. Podcast number 3 it will be. If you want me to enter your numbers, you might find it more fun to do it yourself. I am about to do that. It will take me over an hour, as I need to refresh my gut-feeling with what polls have amassed in the regions and states and particularities. Reb has Cruz winning three states. I still think he will win them all, but my actual numbers (above 33 and to the highest in the few with a gigantic Trump lead of 20+ percent). I will give Trump the benefit+ of the doubt in every instance -- if his polls are lower than the average, I will push them up. and if his polls are higher than the average I will add a little extra boost++. There will be good turnouts and likely scads of new voters. Much of this individual scadding will add per rota to the Trump ledger. Thump. I guess some of these super states are poorly served by polling machinery and hoopla, so my guesses will be even odds off, but on the whole I expect a continuing flight pattern above 33 to beyond the RCP average at 36. REB! -- in your grille of results transmuted into delegates, the screenshot link shows your percentages in summed delegate results by candidate, as below but with 'live' revision possible going forward and backward, I botch the formatting but give you your Reb numbers with direct copypasta below. I don't know exactly how to save/change/revisit one's estimates for two session identities, thus the link to an image.: So far you have allocated 850 delegates, 1,622 delegates remain TrumpCruzRubioKasichCarsonPaulGrahamFiorinaHuckabeeChristieSantorumBush338217199504600000001231000000000Delegates:States Won: You're done! None of the candidates won a sufficient number of states or delegates to lock down the nomination - which means there will be a brokered convention -- Brant was right all along! (I hasten to say that these are akin to hurricane forecasting two days out, with the hurricane composed of individual voters doing their thing I expect "errors" ....) ! My gut says Trump will be much closer to 567 than to Reb's 338. I expect no course change despite squalls of High Hoopla underway, no matter what the Twins and the Hunchback and the Smiling Dead say. Edited March 1, 2016 by william.scherk Removed effect of fat-fingering, spelking, punkchuation. A couple of minor grammar atrocities to smooth over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 First, anyone can still change their declared picks and since this is so complicated, by special decree, with my phone in one hand, and my pen in the other hand, I am arbitrarily, and capriciously, extending the time limit to 3 PM EST wherein you can change your picks. FYI: For Mass. Quote Galvin said the state could see as many as 700,000 voting in tomorrow’s Republican primary, a significant number given just 468,000 people are actually registered Republicans. In Massachusetts. unenrolled — otherwise known as independent — voters can cast a ballot in the primary of any party. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party more later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 (edited) North Dakota is a caucus all the delegates selected at the State convention will be "unbound." ND has a state convention. Wyoming takes a straw poll, however, it is non-binding and no delegates are allocated on Super Tuesday. Wyoming has county conventions. A... Edited March 1, 2016 by Selene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Alabama Primary is OPEN Alaska is a CLOSED Caucus Arkansas Primary is OPEN Colorado is a CLOSED Caucus Georgia is a Primary and SEMI-Closed Massachusetts Primary is SEMI-Closed Minnesota is a Caucus and is OPEN North Dakota is a OPEN Caucus Oklahoma Primary is CLOSED Tennessee Primary is OPEN Texas Primary is OPEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 My Picks Republican Super Tuesday: Alabama – Trump 43 Cruz 24 Rubio 18 Carson 10 Kasich 5 Alaska -Trump 33 Rubio 29 Cruz 27 Kasich 5 Carson 5 Arkansas - Trump 28 Rubio 25 Cruz 30 Kasich 5 Carson 10 unbound 2 Georgia - Trump 40 Rubio 30 [Atlanta area key & 8th CD] Cruz 12 Kasich 5 Carson 12 Mass - Trump 51 Rubio 15 Cruz 13 Kasich 10 Carson 5 Minn - Trump 29 Rubio 30 Cruz 19 Kasich 15 Carson 5 other 2 Oklahoma - Trump 35 Rubio 32 [Tulsa & Oklahoma City key] Cruz 25 Kasich 3 Carson 5 Tenn - Trump 36 Rubio 30 Cruz 25 Kasich 3 Carson 5 Texas - Trump 36 Rubio 19 Cruz 37 Kasich 3 Carson 5 Vermont - Trump 45 Rubio 16 Cruz 12 Kasich 20 Carson 7 Virginia - Trump 38 Rubio 24 Cruz 15 Kasich 15 Carson 8 ________________________________________________as of 12:30 PM Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Here are my Democratic Picks: Alabama - Evita 59% BS 41% BS will be lucky to keep Evita under 60% American Samoa - Evita 63% BS 37% an amusing place with around 300-400 votes cast and these two should split the 6 delegates evenly. Arkansas – Evita 56% BS 44% one of the whitest states in the south. Colorado - Evita 49.5% BS 50.5% ****A key state for BS to win for him to have any chance as Evita’s forces are eroded. Georgia - Evita 65% BS 35% - believe it or not – this would be a victory for Sanders if he keeps Evita under 66%. Massachusetts - Evita 48% BS 52% - Another state that BS has to win. Minnesota - Evita 38% BS 62% - BS’s other chance to landslide – under 6% Black in State, very liberal and they do not like Evita. Oklahoma - Evita 48% BS 52% - Very few blacks, American Indian vote is larger than black vote. Low income whites who respond to BS’s message. Tennessee - Evita 56% BS 44% - BS should be able to do well in this state, as yet, he is not demonstrating that. Texas - Evita 55% BS 45% - BS could do better if he was effective in Latino outreach, if not he gets beaten easily. Vermont - Evita 12% BS 88% keeping Evita under 15% gives BS all the delegates in his home state and it would be a psychological slap to Evita. Virginia - Evita 56% BS 44% - this is perhaps one of the most interesting key bell weather states for the general election. Evita should do well. 30% black. However, like the suburban counties around Boston, the Virginia DC counties are some of the wealthiest in America because it lives off the Imperial City of Washington DC. Additionally, the poor, white communities adjoining West Virginia will provide us with an early understanding of where they are about Evita. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is going to be a very interesting evening... AND more importantly, the NY Yankees, the greatest sports franchise in sports history started it's first pre-season game at Steinbrenner Field in Florida at 1:05 PM...PLAY BALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 On 2/29/2016 at 8:56 PM, william.scherk said: Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Carson Fiorina Huckabee Paul FEB. 1 Iowa 7 8 7 1 1 3 1 1 1 FEB. 9 N.H. 11 3 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 FEB. 20 S.C. 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FEB. 23 Nev. 14 6 7 1 0 1 0 0 0 WSS Guestimate super tuesday ALL BELOW 546 27 8 3 That was my wild eyeball guess at the delegate numbers, flying on Seetuvpanz Airlines. Now, having run Reb's and my numbers through the RCP machine, having wanted a state-by-state eyeball, I made a table that would take all the numbers. The Grant Total was, as I said, not what I expected. Here below is the result. I will maybe reissue this one with Adam's numbers plugged in, so I have another details forecast comparable to my own. The ** note means that the total delegate allocation as of yesterday is variously reported, ranging from 62 to 83 for Mr Trump. -- an additional built-in uncertainty is a kink in the RCP program where it doesn't calculate/show the delegate totals for a few states as you go. I just guessed on these three -- without digging into the arcana of the state allocation rules. A final uncertainty and one that ensmallens my Grand Total Trump delegate count is that I did not click in the automatic RNC delegates, which are supposed to be distributed proportionally in most cases, with the benefit to the winner. The RCP programme lets you do that before telling you you are finished and it looks like a brokered convention. That is a blurb/come-on, and a bit stupid, since any combination you come up with will tell you the same thing. It is like an identical horoscope for all comers. But I digress. The next run I will add in the 'end-point' at the RCP page, allocating the national committee set-aside, then punch in all the details in a copy of below. Unless you don't want, Adam? My WSS guestimations, edition 1:13 Pacific time. I already forgot the countdown is out of date, so I reserve the right to miss a deadline and poke in an updated guestimate. Or not. What I think is wrong with this one is not giving enough punch up over the polling top (and adding in turnout punch up) for Mr Trump. For example, can't he, won't he do better than the Minnesota and Texas fantasy primary numbers marked out below? WSS Super Guestimations TRUMP del CRUZ RUBIO CARSON KASICH Accumulated Delegates Feb 29** 83 15 14 2 7 Highest nat pol/RCP avg % 49/36.5 24/19.8 25/17.4 30/9 10/8.8 Alabama 45% 21 16 17 11 4 Alaska 36 28 20 18 8 9 Arkansas 36 5 20 3 17 2 10 1 8 1 Georgia 39 17 15 6 20 12 9 4 8 Massachusetts 51 42 10 20 1 14 Minnesota 18 6 21 7 23 7 11 4 2 Oklahoma 35 6 23 4 22 3 7 1 8 1 Tennessee 42 12 21 6 15 4 9 3 6 2 Texas 32 36 35 39 16 18 4 5 9 10 Vermont 32 16 11 17 3 10 Virginia 40 40 22 9 27 4 6 Wyoming 36 20 15 15 11 3 Percentage averaged/delegates summed 36.91 249 19.08 74 19.27 46 12.6 18 7.3 14 Plus Grand Total 332 80 60 20 14 I heard Mr Trump in a video I cannot find right now say that expectations for him are around the 225++ zone, but I don't know if he mean today's votes only, counting in RNC, assigning dead candidate delegates ... that is what makes most sense. My grand total guess sum at 332 is lower than I expected. How did my eyeball get to 567? Technical note: the basic table was made in BlueGriffon. It is nine times as easy to build a table in it than with Excel and similar. Because BlueGriffon only does the HTML work for you, you still have to sum and average. For that I copy-pasta-ed the entire table to the Google Sheets, and did the summing and averaging there. If anyone wants to see that, I make a copy: Copy of GOP Super Tuesday 'fantasy politics' estimates -- blank It should be live to anybody, let me know if not. The wonk in me is having a good day, having postponed the Conversations with the Greats II podcast with Trump and MSK and Roger. I want to get all their reaction hot tonight and then whip up my zingers. This time I am going with an On the Waterfont ambience. One podcast at at time, slightly increasing its length. With Roger as a guest punditwonkboneworm and Objectivissh Trump Doubter curse hiss Satan, it will probably run as long as twelve minutes. I have wanted to extemporize on Trump's libel remarks and MSK's remarkable defence, and I did want to knock on Roger's noggin for the view from Rational Tennessee, and to do some reasoning together about the Rise of Trump, and the state of the Race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 William, Those waterfront ambience sounds are far more intelligent than a lot of the commentary I am reading and hearing in the mainstream news today. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Adam, I had the fun of entering your numbers at RCP and then putting them in a live table at Google Sheets. I did not even need to use BlueGriffon. Copy and paste. The same caveats above apply to the guesses for MN, VT and VA, due to the RCP hiccup. I also did not factor in RNC delegates. As I understand the state of things, the March 1st contests supply an additional proportioned 138 delegates, So if you add a rough breakout to Trump for 50, and then the 83 already in the bag, your Grand Total is ... TRUMP del CRUZ RUBIO CARSON KASICH Accumulated Delegates Feb 29** 83 15 14 2 7 Highest nat pol/RCP avg % 49/36.5 24/19.8 25/17.4 30/9 10/8.8 Alabama 43.0% 50 24.0% 18.0% 10.0% 5.0% Alaska 33.0% 10 29.0% 9 29.0% 9 5.0% 5.0% Arkansas 28.0% 4 25.0% 3 25.0% 3 10.0% 1 5.0% 1 Georgia 40.0% 19 12.0% 5 30.0% 13 12.0% 5 5.0% Massachusetts 51.0% 27 13.0% 7 15.0% 8 5.0% 5.0% Minnesota 29.0% 8 9.0% 5 30.0% 9 5.0% 1 5.0% 1 Oklahoma 35.0% 5 25.0% 4 32.0% 5 5.0% 1 3.0% Tennessee 36.0% 10 25.0% 7 30.0% 8 5.0% 1 3.0% 1 Texas 36.0% 38 37.0% 38 19.0% 14 5.0% 4 3.0% 1 Vermont 45.0% 31 12.0% 16.0% 7.0% 20.0% 15 Virginia 38.0% 19 15.0% 7 24.0% 12 8.0% 4 15.0% 7 Wyoming 39.0% 26 20.0% 18.0% 7.0% 6.0% 37.64% 247 20.5% 85 24.4% 81 7.0% 17 6.7% 26 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, william.scherk said: I heard Mr Trump in a video I cannot find right now say that expectations for him are around the 225++ zone -- and then I stumbled upon this from those dratted, malicious, lying, aching-to-be-sued propagandists at the New York Times. It can't be that they have a mole in the Trump campaign by way of 'consultant.' This must be a triple-play bluff. All I know is someone is going to be hurting real bad. 6:46 PM ET 2016-03-01T23:58:03+00:00 Trip Gabriel Donald Trump’s Team Expects at Least 245 Delegates Tonight The results tonight will be announced as raw vote totals, but for the candidates what really matters is how many delegates each wins, in a mathematical elimination game that makes it harder and harder to catch the front-runner. Advisers to each candidate have worked out projections based on where they see their strengths and the strengths of competitors. Before any returns were in, a person close to the Trump campaign shared some back-of-the-envelope projections for the 595 delegates at stake tonight in the Republican race, the most of any single day of voting. Although every state is awarding delegates proportionately, a thicket of different rules for each state means that delegate allocations will not strictly reflect the share of votes won. The Trump adviser’s calculation is as follows: Mr. Trump will win at least 245 delegates. “If it’s a home run he could get up to 400, but I think 250 is reasonable,” the adviser said. If Senator Ted Cruz wins his home state, Texas, as polls indicate is likely, his total haul for the 11 states would be about 150, the Trump adviser said. Senator Marco Rubio will do “significantly worse.” The math is based on Mr. Cruz pulling about 90 delegates out of Texas, Mr. Trump taking about 60 and Mr. Rubio falling below a 20 percent threshold that would deny him virtually any delegates from the state. But if Mr. Rubio got a handful of delegates in Texas, the Trump adviser said, that would be considered a victory for him. I am live-updating before bedtime, a Google Sheet column of real-life values to contrast with my wild eyeballing values and my more subdued second guess values. And with Reb's and Adam too's guestimates too. Snore. Edited March 2, 2016 by william.scherk Added link to comparison grille Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I compared my guesses straight across to the real numbers. It is easy to visually grasp where the discrepancies are. I pretty near called it on the nose for actual delegates in the pocket -- a difference between 229 and 230, but my delegate counts individually were swingingly off. The swings cancelled each other out. WSS versus Reality TRUMP del Accumulated Delegates Feb 29** 83 83 83 Highest nat pol/RCP avg % 49/36.5 Returns Guestimate Diff. Guest House Alabama 43.7% 45.0% -1.3% 21 36 -15 Alaska 33.5% 36.0% -2.5% 28 11 17 Arkansas 32.7% 36.0% -3.3% 5 9 -4 Georgia 38.8% 39.0% -0.2% 17 40 -23 Massachusetts 49.3% 51.0% -1.7% 42 22 20 Minnesota 21.3% 18.0% 3.3% 6 8 -2 Oklahoma 28.3% 35.0% -6.7% 6 12 -6 Tennessee 38.9% 42.0% -3.1% 12 31 -19 Texas 26.7% 32.0% -5.3% 36 38 -2 Vermont 32.7% 32.0% 0.7% 16 6 10 Virginia 34.7% 40.0% -5.3% 40 17 23 Wyoming Average Pct 34.6% 36.91% -2.3% 229 230 -0.09 PCP Avg 36.5% Diff -1.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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