Saturday's Caucus And Primary Picks 2016


Selene

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Democratic:
 

Hillary "Evita" Rodham Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Caucus - time for picks

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Bush

Carson

Cruz

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

 

 

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ANY PREDICTIONS NEED TO BE POSTED BY 7 AM EST FEBRUARY 20th 2016.
 
 
Polling places are open from 7:00am to 7:00pm on both primary election dates. Anyone in line at 7:00 p.m. will be allowed to vote.
 
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Anyone? )

The thing to understand about primaries is they are the best chance to affect the race. Strike now while the gettin's hot. Virginia's is March 1st. By the time November rolls around the a Republican nominee will be in place. One choice then, the whole field now. The national election isnt decided on the popular vote, its decided on the early states turn out of the primary voters. It will also explain why I'll say I voted for Cruz when he isnt then the choice. Who knows though, right?

Yeah, only taken my a lifetime to figure this out. )

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Trump is set to win every last delegate in South Carolina -- a plurality in a 'district' (portion by House district) leads to 100% of the district delegates. 33% in Nevada means 50%+ delegates.  The actual proportion of delegates assigned to winning numbers are seemingly wee and not dispositive in the 'real world' but Hoopla will insist on an unstoppable Trumpmentum going into SEC primaries.  I am looking at the map of the future here as I type. My map shows magical++ poll numbers for Trump. Win. Win. Double Happiness. Trains going in tunnels. Fireworks. Gauzy soft-core. A night, a bout of self-lovemaking to remember ...

I will get MSK specific and say Trump will get bozillions of votes in South Carolina, and let the plucking of the carcasses begin.  As for Nevada, I don't get their caucus, but it almost looks like Trump could storm the place, and nail down un-nailable caucus-selected delegate-designees in their byzantine process. I don't doubt Hoopla will say his Nevada win was a crushing, snowplow death kind of slaughter of the also-rans.

Okay, specificity. Trump by 20% over Mr Hispanic Fixits 1 and 2, and a torturously bad showing for Jeb!  

 I could be waaaay off on everything, so I lay no bets here on the 19th of Feb.

Schlongings. Stompings. Hoopla. Sweeps. Hooplamentum.  TrumpGasms galore.

-- further notes of caution, from Hater Hate Hate and the hatey-hate-hats: what does it mean if Cruz gets within single digits of Trump, or if Rubio does so? Is it dispositive in re Cleveland that Trump gets all five zillion delegates from South Carolina -- if he does so with a plurality of 33 to 25 for one Hispano McFixit or other?  

Caveat on caveat is that both McFxt rum punch cigars are not beating each other down. No advantage to either today.  But.  And.  With OhioHunchbackFixit and ExclamationMarkHospicePatient and ComatoseDumbo still in the mix to split the not-33s, all auto-erotic TrumpGasms the night of victory are justified, if unseemly. If Loaf of Hair can steer the Hoopla  his way, it won't matter that the not-33s  exist, because by not merging via candidaticide, that vote is worth shit for delegates. You get magic 33 and  you get Crushing victory. Not-33s,  you get shit. Sorry, amateurs.

Magic 33. Magic 1236. Magic 50 plus one. Heart-stopping excitement and TrumpGasms to come. Hoopla up the wazoo. You free-spending yankee election circus-makers are the best on earth. Even this dead cynical as an iguana Red Tory is feeling the thrill. A bit of dread, sure, but a bit of a thrill.

Back to the image of Michael diligently catching,  caging, feeding, killing, plucking, gutting and cleaning all 371 crows he has turned from metaphor into slightly gamey meat for fantasy. I suggest lots of double-smoked fatty bacon, and if not bacon, boatloads of butter, and a very short crust in a psychotically hot oven, until you see hot wet bubbles and hear screams. Whisky should be on hand, as well as the usual kit for a vomitorium.

 Further image is the scrap midden and general reek of hopelessness and despair at the endless stomach-busting banquet. As a  closer for the message of harmony and progress, this kind of pie is just as you imagine crow -- butter or not, bacon-mummied and garlic stuffing up the hole or not, it is ugly meat indeed. And then there are the bones ...

Edited by william.scherk
Edited for taste, and spelking.
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This is almost a wish pick...

Nevada

Sanders     52%

Evita           48%

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Bush        8% 

Carson     9%

Cruz        19%

Kasich       6%

Rubio       20%

Trump       38%

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Table of guesstimates for the SC GOP Primary. Adam Selene (AVS) is the top guesser in the two previous predictions. See also the Delegate Count entry at ... oh, what the hell, I will include it below.

  TRUMP RUBIO CRUZ BUSH KASICH CARSON
REB 30 20 25 13 8 4
WSS 40 19 18 9 6 4
AVS 38 20 19 8 6 9
             
             
             

I think Mr Trump will sweep all the SC delegates. I still haven't figured out how the Nevada caucuses work ...

*****************************************************************************************************************************

Red means Winner-take-all

  Trump   Cruz   Rubio   Kasich   Carson   Bush  
Iowa (30) 7 cum. 8 cum. 7 cum. - cum. 3 cum. - cum.
proportional 24% 7 23% 8 28% 7 2%   9% 3 3% -
New Hampshire (23) 10   3   3   4   -   3  
proportional 35% 17 12% 11 11% 10 16% 4 2% 3 11% 3
Nevada (30)                        
South Carolina (50)                        
Alabama (50)                        
Alaska (28)                        
Arkansas (40)                        
Georgia (76)                        
Massachusetts (42)                        
Minnesota (38)                        
Oklahoma (43)                        
Tennessee (58)                        
Texas  (155)                        
Vermont (16)                        
Virginia (49)                        
Wyoming (29)                        
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Here's my prediction: None. I have a better chance of predicting whether I'll bust at the blackjack table.

-J

 

 

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William:

Are you sure about the winner take all South Carolina primary?

I thought you mentioned 1/2 to the plurality candidate and then the other half by the winner of over 3Or, did I miss something 30% in each Congressional District?

A...

 

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25 minutes ago, Selene said:

Are you sure about the winner take all South Carolina primary?

I thought you mentioned 1/2 to the plurality candidate and then the other half by the winner of over 3Or, did I miss something 30% in each Congressional District?

I may have erred in several places, but how I understand the SC GOP process is that the 'winner takes all' in two categories:  district delegates and state delegates  So, if Mr Trump gets but 33% in each and every district, he still receives all those delegates, and probably every last one of  the state-delegate pledged to over-all state winner.  Here's a bit of explanation from a credible site, Princeton's Election Consortium:

South Carolina’s Republican convention delegates are assigned on a winner-take-all basis, either at the state level (29 delegates) or by Congressional district (21 delegates in 7 districts, 3 delegates each). As a general rule, Congressional districts within a state behave similarly in a primary. Consistent with this, in 2012 Congressional Districts 2 through 7 showed an average margin of 14.7% between the first-place candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the second-place candidate (Mitt Romney), with a standard deviation of only 5.1%. The outlier was District 1, which includes Charleston, and which Romney won by a 2.9% margin. [...] 

It is distinctly possible that Trump will win all seven districts – and all 50 of South Carolina’s convention delegates. That would bring Trump to a total of 67 out of 103 delegates awarded so far, or 65%.

Since I don't see clearly which district might possibly go to another candidate, I am pretty sure Mr Trump will sweep the delegates. As I noted in the chatbox, even a Trump-notLover like Berman is similarly sure of a sweep.

Thanks for the question!  I am sure I am the only person in ten square miles here at home who can converse on the South Carolina primary ... to lighten the stiff electoral porridge, I include a picture of the fabled South Carolina city Charleston.  

explore01.jpg

Adam -- see also this great page at The Green Paper: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R

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17 hours ago, Selene said:

This is almost a wish pick...

Nevada

Sanders     52%

Evita           48%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Told you this was a wish pick. 

The right call was the obverse.  Especially in Nevada and the caucus system.  One of the reasons that it depresses voter turnout in Democratic Caucus Primaries in Nevada is the full "presence" of SEIU and their endorsed candidate Evita.

Hell, Chris "tingle legged" Mathews, had Dick Van Dyke on with the SEIU supervising goon as representing the two candidates. 

Dick is amazing.  Over 90 and still performing.  A performance genius with a play dough face and a phenomenally quick mind.

He was representing Bernie Sanders.   I hope I can find the clip.

Dick said the last time he campaigned for a Presidential candidate was Eugene McCarthy.  That was a campaign that I was involved in and it was a glorious campaign.

Dick also called Bernie a New Deal Democrat, and not a "socialist."  He explained that the word socialism does not mean much to the young people today.   He correctly labeled the term's earlier meaning which was associated with Communism, Fascism, etc.

He went back to Wilson's Constitutional insanity that was based on Eugenics as well as other "progressive" ideas, which included isolating the darkies and assisting the effort to breed them out of existence.  Nice chap.

On weekends, he would break up Suffragette rallies and throw the uppity females into jails like The Tombs in Manhattan. 

Yeah, good ole' Woodrow. just your down home dictator, misogynist, racist and bon vivant.

I detest the caucus system since it violates the Constitutional implication of the privacy and sanctity of the citizen's votes.

You had SEIU goons at every caucus and they made notations of who from the locals showed up and who did not.  The huge advantage they have is to destroy any union voter who stood in the final Bernie section.

You know, the Union who fights for better lives for working families...the ones that wear the right collar that is...you know, stick with the Union label, or, they will not be able to identify you, even with dental records.

Remind anyone of On The Waterfront?  The Last Hurrah?

This caucus system, in today's election cycles, are further examples of making sure that the establishment controls the process.

Sickening.

A...

 

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2 hours ago, Selene said:

I detest the caucus system since it violates the Constitutional implication of the privacy and sanctity of the citizen's votes.

 

Yeah.

Reb is the winnah! I was way off. Adam is runner-up. How come only thirty-eight delegates are awarded as of now?

  Trump   Cruz   Rubio   Kasich   Carson   Bush  
Iowa (30) 7 cum. 8 cum. 7 cum. - cum. 3 cum. - cum.
proportional 24% 7 23% 8 28% 7 2%   9% 3 3% -
New Hampshire (23) 10   3   3   4   -   3  
proportional 35% 17 12% 11 11% 10 16% 4 2% 3 11% 3
South Carolina (50) 38                      
  33% 55 22%   22%   8%   7%   8%  
                         
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Bush        8%                                        13 %                                        7.9%         0.1  to   5.0   net + 4.9

Carson     9%                                         4%                                          7.2%         1.8  to    3.2   net + 1.4 = + 6.3

Cruz        19%                                       25%                                         22.3%        3.3  to    2.7  net  -   0.6 =  + 5.7

Kasich       6%                                        8%                                           7.6%         1.6  to    0.3   net  -  1.3 =   + 4.4

Rubio       20%                                       20%                                        22.5%         2,5  to    2.5   net  0       =   + 4.4    

Trump       38%                                      30%                                        32.5%         5.5   to    2.5   net  -  3.0 =  + 1.4

Trump 30, Cruz 25, Rubio 20, Bush, Kasich and Carson in that order, each less than 15 and totaling 25 (e.g.,13, 8, 4).

If this holds, I think we both were virtually even and the order for 2nd and 3rd is separated by about 142 votes out of 734,263 congrats to both of us.

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The only three (3) precincts left are in Sumter County which is just East of Columbia.

Quote

The racial makeup of the county was 49.4% White, 47.0% Black or African American, 0.4% Native American, 1.2% Asian, 0.1% Pacific Islander,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumter_County,_South_Carolina

Cruz is running at 22.2% and Rubio at 20.1 in Sumter, with 216 votes separating them, so it would be hard for Cruz to make up the ground.

Trump is at 33.5 in Sumter

Jeb! is at 12.2

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4 hours ago, william.scherk said:

 

Yeah.

Reb is the winnah! I was way off. Adam is runner-up. How come only thirty-eight delegates are awarded as of now?

  Trump   Cruz   Rubio   Kasich   Carson   Bush  
Iowa (30) 7 cum. 8 cum. 7 cum. - cum. 3 cum. - cum.
proportional 24% 7 23% 8 28% 7 2%   9% 3 3% -
New Hampshire (23) 10   3   3   4   -   3  
proportional 35% 17 12% 11 11% 10 16% 4 2% 3 11% 3
South Carolina (50) 38                      
  33% 55 22%   22%   8%   7%   8%  
                         

Here is your delegate answer Bill.

There  are three delegates per Congressional District and the winner of each of those seven Congressional districts

receives them.

Now your instinctive call on The Donald getting all the delegates is at least one closer because Trey Gowdy is the Congressman form the North West corner of South Carolina predominantly in Greenville County and The Donald beat him even there.  So he should get that Congressional District as well.

That leaves that purple stretch in the South Center of the State, see attached link to the map... http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/south-carolina

Along that beach front, is Charleston County and Rubio is ahead 27.9 to The Donald's 26.4.

867 votes difference and all that county's votes have been counted and reported.

Well  well, it is the 1st Congressional District:

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/SC/1

It is the "Honorable" Mark "I am hiking the Appalachian Trail in Brazil" Sanford.

A...

 

 

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Damn Michael made the same points on the Trump thread about four (4) minutes earlier and I just read it!

The only two original Trump supporters on OL.

 

 

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It is final, Rubio finishes second by 1,091 votes.

The Donald will get at least 44 of the 50 delegates.

Huge victory and it looks like he is up by 30 + in Nevada. 

However, it is a caucus state. I wonder if SIEU is going to have it's goons operatives will show up.

A...

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31 minutes ago, Selene said:

Damn Michael made the same points on the Trump thread about four (4) minutes earlier and I just read it!

The only two original Trump supporters on OL.

Adam,

We did cross. And you have been a wonderful Trumpian sidekick.

:) 

btw - I fixed your iframe.

Here's a tip for embedding coded stuff in a post.

1. Make your post as normal, but where you want to embed something with code, write instead: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. 

2. Toggle to Source view. However, make sure you have done all the formatting and revision you want BEFORE you toggle.

3. Scroll down until you come to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Replace it with the code.

4. Click "Submit Reply" directly without toggling back.

Voila.

:)

Do that a few times and it becomes second nature because it is simple and works every time.

Michael

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4 minutes ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Adam,

We did cross. And you have been a wonderful Trumpian sidekick.

:) 

btw - I fixed your iframe.

Here's a tip for embedding coded stuff in a post.

1. Make your post as normal, but where you want to embed something with code, write instead: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. 

2. Toggle to Source view. However, make sure you have done all the formatting and revision you want BEFORE you toggle.

3. Scroll down until you come to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Replace it with the code.

4. Click "Submit Reply" directly without toggling back.

Voila.

:)

Do that a few times and it becomes second nature because it is simple and works every time.

Michael

Thanks because I tend to toggle it first and then try to switch because I have the "enable HTML" protocol embedded in my brain and I need to slow down and just follow your steps.

Again thanks.

A...
 

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In today's South Carolina coronation primary:

Evita will garner 54+%

Bernie Sanders will get 46%

The turnout will be low and we need to pay particular attention to the Black/African American/persons of color/etc.

turnout in comparison to 2008 and 2012 South Carolina primary votes for O'bama and Evita.

A...

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My guesses for the SC Democratic primary ...

Clinton: 59%
Sanders: 37%

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56 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

My guesses for the SC Democratic primary ...

Clinton: 59%
Sanders: 37%

I think you are going to be closer than I am.

Places to watch in SC for Evita:

Columbia and SE of that city which is heavily African American - if Evita's vote is suppressed there i could be an early sign of a problem.

Also, Charleston and Greenville.

Bernie needs a large turnout by students and one place to watch is Orangeburg.

A...

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Well that was quick - Evita declared the winner by a lot lol...

Need to see the comparison numbers to 2008...

Looks like REB nailed this one...

A...

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