New Hampshire 2016 - Time To Make Your Predictions


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I'll start off this thread by adding in Reb!'s guesstimate and mine ...

REB: As for the upcoming Tuesday night vote, here's my prediction: Trump about 25%, Cruz and Rubio about 20% each, Christie and Jeb and Kasich about 10% each, Ben Casey 5%. (The last being a reference to an old medical tv series from 50 years ago.)

WSS: I confidently predict Trump will garner 33% of the votes. I predict a mini-surge for Rubio, who will top 20%. As for Cruz, I think he will edge all the other also-rans, with about 12-15%. Fourth will be Kasich, with 10%, and Bush, Christie gaining about 5-7 tops. The remainder will not rise above 5%.(I reserve the right to change these guesses in AVS's thread). I am probably wildly wrong about Cruz in NH ...

(I am already itching to change my opinion, but what the hell, I think I will keep it, even if I have some doubts in my own perspicacity)

-- i can add a table of guesstimates on Monday, when we get a few more predictions in.





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Trump by a lot.

Rubio will fall off some.

Probably Kasich will rise a bit. Maybe Bush, too, since people love his mommy and she's there.

Everyone about the same.

Michael

Did you want your prognostication included in a table of guesses/estimates? "By a lot" and "fall off some" and "rise a bit" and "about the same" are kinda loose goose. Mind you, I got an F the first time I took Statistics, so what do I know?

I would probably inscribe your guesstimates as Trump >33% ... and Rubio 'falling off' as <16%, with Kasich bumping up beyond the latest soundings (~11%). That not only is a pretty good guess, but more-or-less what the wonks at 538 say about the race. They are sure Trump will win with between 33% and 40%.

If you want to be left out of the table, or if my guesstimates of your non-numerical guesses is wildly wrong, please issue the command.

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Just to remind folks who is still in the race:

Bush

Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Uncommitted

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Hours until voting begins
06:03

A few New Hampshire precincts will cast ballots at midnight.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/hillary-clinton-staff-shakeup-218955#ixzz3zcVUmmSA

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Here are my picks, subject to change before 11:50 PM EST tonight:

Bush 15%

Carson 3%
Christie 7%

Cruz 11%

Fiorina 3%
Kasich 15%
Rubio 14%
Trump 31%.

Uncommitted 1%

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Clinton 42%

Sanders 57%

Uncommitted 1%

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Story highlights

  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders got off to an early lead in the New Hampshire primary early Tuesday morning
  • Sanders shut out Hillary Clinton, 4-0, while Kasich bested Donald Trump, 3-2

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire (CNN)Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders got an early boost Tuesday as they won the vote in Dixville Notch, the New Hampshire hamlet that is home to the first vote in the first-in-the nation primary.

Sanders shut out Hillary Clinton, 4-0, while Kasich bested Donald Trump, 3-2.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/09/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-primary-midnight-vote/index.html

Edited by Selene
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Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont emerged as the Democrats’ big winner of the wee hours on Tuesday, with 17 votes in total, while Hillary Clinton received nine.

On the Republican side, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Donald J. Trump and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio each had nine votes.

Oh, and in Hart’s Location, a Democrat named Mark Stewart Greenstein received two votes.

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New Hampshire primary vote percentages ...
  Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Bush Christie Fiorina Carson
AVS 31 11 15 14 15 7 3 3
REB 25 20 10 20 10 10 - 5
WSS 33 12-15 10 ~20 5-7 5-7 4 4
KoD 30 17 >9 14 9 >9 >9 >9
MSK by a lot   will rise a bit will fall off some may rise a bit      

 

Edited by william.scherk
Edit3: added Korben Dallas @6:05PST
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Oh ye of little faith.  Trump is doing well.  38 percent is the latest poll prediction.  Uncle Bernie has mopped the floor with Evita.  Maybe Elizabeth Warren should be heading to the bull pen to warm up. Pochahontis for President.  It has a ring.  Both The Donald and Uncle Bernie are doing very will with the younger voters.  I think the Young Folks have had it up to their nostrils with Business as Usual. 

Edited by BaalChatzaf
Added a thing r tow.
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I will drop in the chat box for a while tonight. It is High Family Day in my household, with a lot of activity, but I will wait for a moment later tonight to go all WSS on New Hampshire results.  At the moment, I know nothing at all about how wildly wrong I was this time.

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Looks like the fat man is dropping out...

Where do his votes go?

 

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Christie's announcing today that he is suspending his campaign.

If The Donald makes a deal with him, he should be able to get his endorsement.

A...

 

 

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18 hours ago, Selene said:

Looks like the fat man is dropping out...

Where do his votes go?

 

Guessing mostly Trump, CC was the "tell it like it is" candidate for a while there, and loved the camera attention in the debates.

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20 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

What?

Nobody's celebrating that Trump won?

Dayaamm!

It's not a good day to be a crow.

Time for a reminder about Crowing and Premature TrumpGasms ... 

The GOP primary has begun. The first 53 delegates have been allocated (counting unbound Party Hacks at 3 per state) ... and the leader on the board has amassed a grand total of 17.  Seventeen delegates to Cleveland. Needed to win, 1236.  

The percentage of delegates needed to win ... that Mr Trump has so far?

1.29 percent.   17/1236.  Do that math. The number is not orgasmic ...

Michael, everytime you mention a crow-eating prematurely, it tends to deepen and enlarge the pie that you are going to eat should your confident predictions not come to pass.   I hope you keep your sense of proportion, and that next time out you are not a pussy about prognosticating.

TrumpGasm people should have a look ahead to some upcoming southern state contests, notably Georgia, North Carolina and Arkansas. Trump leads in two of these states, but with a lead under 30% in the latest polls. That is not enough for him to win nomination if it stays that way during the SEC primaries ...as can be seen in today's aggregate rolling polls, Trump is no longer maintaining a ~33% lead nationally. This is not good for enthusiasts.

It is a fine day to be a crow. Crows can count.  Some humans can't.

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Wow...

Those grapes are sour!

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