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Brant writes:

I never argue with facts, Greg, only how you use them.

I'm not even using them. The order is already there. I'm only recognizing a preexisting pattern.

By default, your ONLY argument is to claim that there there is no pattern and no order to events which have already taken place... when one obviously exists. That's denying objective reality.

There are odds of 1 in 2,555 possible days that the biggest stock market collapse in US history would have taken place on Elul29 in a Shemitah year.

What are the odds of two?...

How about three?... :wink:

Greg

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Brant writes:

I never argue with facts, Greg, only how you use them.

I'm not even using them. The order is already there. I'm only recognizing a preexisting pattern.

By default, your ONLY argument is to claim that there there is no pattern and no order to events which have already taken place... when one obviously exists. That's denying objective reality.

There are odds of 1 in 2,555 possible days that the biggest stock market collapse in US history would have taken place on Elul29 in a Shemitah year.

What are the odds of two?...

How about three?... :wink:

Greg

If you use purely random as your criteria to calculate the odds they are quite high: 2555^2 = 6528025, 2555^3 = 16679103875 but...this situation is not purely random. A couple of weeks ago I posted:

Correlation is not causation. Free market economists have been looking at the actions of central banks and debt growth and easy money for years and predicting a huge bubble which has to burst sometime. Tens of millions of people exactly like you fervently pray, and act, to make your biblical predictions (the timing of a catastrophic event) come true to confirm your beliefs. Thresholds events can be strongly effected by tiny step functions such as the biases of a relatively small population. The noise floor, small unpredictable random fluctuations, can be overcome by small step functions at the threshold. You said yourself, a very large population has been taught to act in a particular manner on certain preordained dates. Like the butterfly effect, small actions can have profound consequences. But it's still individual human actions and mathematics. No mystical explanations necessary.

The stock market, particularly in the age of computers, is not a random numbers game. It is highly engineered with computer algorithms developed over the last thirty-forty years to analyze trends and react to them. Micro-seconds matter, small spikes can cause big reactions. There is a feedback effect, what the market does causes slower changes in 'meatspace', where actual human beings are thinking and reacting. Here the panic becomes real, these reactions are in turn reacted to and things can go down hill fast. I wish Fred Barlett were still here to add his perspective, he spoke very eloquently in his unique way about how the stock market is manipulated by software.

I can give you an example of how a small timed event can be picked out an amplified from my days as an analog circuit designer if you like.

Neutron detectors, these days filled with He3 gas, detect thermal neutrons by producing ions when the neutrons pass through the gas. There is a high voltage wire, ~1000 VDC, running down the middle of the tube. The free electrons from the reaction of the neutrons and HE3 gas migrate to the positively charged wire and can be detected. But the charge is very small, a fraction of a picocoulomb. This small change in charge is converted to a voltage change and amplified a great deal. But if you look at it at this point it looks like random noise, nothing remarkable, you can't tell that the detection event has occurred so it can't be counted. It takes several stages of pulse shaping, narrowing the frequency response down to the typical rise time of the electrons arriving at the input of the amplifier to see a defined pulse. Then a stage of pole-zero compensation and viola! You have a countable event. There are still random fluctuations in the signal however. You set the threshold of detection above where the noise is, sometimes by trial and error, taking counts and doing a statistical test.

Stock market software can be engineered in exactly the same way to pick trends out of all the random activity of the market. A trend would be a sudden broad sell off, even if it were only by a few thousand true believers convinced a particular date had biblical significance. This would make the odds of a stock market crash happening on that particular date become much less remarkable, particularly with a market teetering on the edge as it is at present.

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Greg reports he is only recognizing a preexisting pattern. Oh. So it’s not rolling the dice and knowing the outcome? Only eight days away from blistering scorn, Greg, or you saying I told you so.

I may fill a few more jugs of water, just in case, but that will be for the anniversary of 911. And I might get a little cash. And another jug of gas. I tried my generator last week and it started right up. Greg is like the weather reporter who tells you to watch for an afternoon tornado and then you are worried in the back of your mind.

Mike E. wrote: Stock market software can be engineered in exactly the same way to pick trends out of all the random activity of the market. A trend would be a sudden broad sell off, even if it were only by a few thousand true believers convinced a particular date had biblical significance. This would make the odds of a stock market crash happening on that particular date become much less remarkable, particularly with a market teetering on the edge as it is at present.
end quote

Exactamundo! I watched The US Farm Report on Rural TV yesterday and they had four market analysts talk about soy bean and corn prices and futures. They were all worried and not one of the four would predict whether you should sell your corn or your soybeans, though the soybeans are just ripening. I was getting fed up with their non advice as was the moderator.

Peter

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Peter writes:

Only eight days away from blistering scorn, Greg, or you saying I told you so.

That's the fun of it, Peter... just waiting to see what happens. It's a game I love to play. :smile:

Even if the stock market does take another dive on Black Monday Sept 14th, 2015 just like the other two times. NOBODY here was convinced from the other two so they sure as Hell WON'T be convinced by this one. Even if it happened four, or five, or six times in a row it still wouldn't make any difference. There is always room for denial.

This thread is an object lesson...

There is NO PROOF which could force anyone to believe anything they don't wish to believe. There is absolutely NO coercion in God. Even if American soil was successfully attacked again, no one would believe be it was because America had forfeit its moral protection by embracing evil. Even if the US economy collapsed, no one would believe it was because America forfeit it's economic providence by adopting rotten ethics.

Greg

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Brant writes:

I never argue with facts, Greg, only how you use them.

I'm not even using them. The order is already there. I'm only recognizing a preexisting pattern.

By default, your ONLY argument is to claim that there there is no pattern and no order to events which have already taken place... when one obviously exists. That's denying objective reality.

There are odds of 1 in 2,555 possible days that the biggest stock market collapse in US history would have taken place on Elul29 in a Shemitah year.

What are the odds of two?...

How about three?... :wink:

Greg

If I am arguing then you are too.

I don't affirm or deny patterns. I have not studied them or if they exist*. I see repetitive behavior the consequences of which one may call a "pattern" and pretending or asserting or implying that the pattern causes the behavior. That's a loop that merely seems loopy to me, like a thermometer causes temperature.

*I do remember flying a pattern around an airport prior to landing in Spring Valley, New York.. Other airplanes flew the same pattern to avoid colliding with each other. That does have predictive value--that is, if you fly against the pattern occupied by other aircraft, you and the other aircraft could close at 150 - 200 MPH. Maybe this would be of some help to you and your position on patterns.

--Brant

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Brant writes:I don't affirm or deny patterns.
That is not true.
I see repetitive behavior the consequences of which one may call a "pattern" and pretending or asserting or implying that the pattern causes the behavior.
If you don't call it a pattern than you deny it is a pattern. :wink:Greg
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There will always room for one person to deny what is obvious to another. That's how this world works. And each successive shock is greater than the last to allow people opportunities to wake up. And if they continue to live in the stubborn denial of their darkened minds, America will be destroyed for no other reason than people no longer deserve it.

Greg

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There will always room for one person to deny what is obvious to another. That's how this world works. And each successive shock is greater than the last to allow people opportunities to wake up. And if they continue to live in the stubborn denial of their darkened minds, America will be destroyed for no other reason than people no longer deserve it.

Greg

One obviousness to another? Have to pick one? How did it get so binary?

"It's obvious I can fly," said the acid head before jumping out of his third-story window. "It's obvious to me you don't have wings," said I to him prior to departure. "Did you buy air-traveller's insurance?"

"SPLAT!"

--Brant

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I don't do dope, Brant. That belongs to narcissistic leftists who regard it as a Holy Sacrament of their secular religion. America is drowning in dope because secularism is the official State religion of the US.

George Washington gave America a WARNING. America VIOLATED that warning. Simple as that.

Now you're seeing the consequences of the violation of moral law.

He also said something else:

"...since there is no truth more thoroughly established, than that there exists in the economy and course of nature, an indissoluble union between virtue and happiness..."

Get this.

Washington KNEW the objective reality that people today PISS on as "superstitious mysticism". The objective reality which was obvious to him is regarded as nonsense today.

Greg

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You're safe, Greg; the dopey stuff seems to be all in your head, not in your existentially lived life. That means, if true, that you're not all dopey. All human beings have a ratio in their heads--I don't claim to be any exception--of dopey to not dopey. How this ratio affects their lives depends on each person. It's not even that simple for there is also the role of luck. (That meteor that hit your house without hitting anyone was good luck.)

Regarding patterns here is a link to a mathematical genius who made a hedge-fund fortune through identification of patterns and anticipation of pattern change, but he (and his team) used vast amounts of data. (Jim Simons retired from the fund in 2008.)

https://twitter.com/AdamSinger/status/640618153735622657

--Brant

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You're safe, Greg; the dopey stuff seems to be all in your head, not in your existentially lived life.

Yeah right, Brant. George Washington was DOPEY. :laugh:

And I know I'm safe because I built an ark. Just because America forfeited its physical protection from its enemies and lost its financial providence through moral corruption doesn't mean that individual Americans can't enjoy those blessings. :smile:

Greg

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Greg wrote: Even if American soil was successfully attacked again, no one would believe be it was because America had forfeit its moral protection by embracing evil . . . . And I know I'm safe because I built an ark.
end quote

Sounds like the TV show Under The Dome but the dome is supplied by an activist deity who decides I will protect him with my umbrella, but you I will smite, and you, you sinners! You’re a mixed bag so it is up to chance and I won’t intervene. Greg talks about humans as if they are volitional, but his universal view is deterministic, with perhaps a pinch of chaos. He thinks, if your trend is to obey Poseidon’s laws then your survivability is trending towards your ark not turning over and sinking.

You substitute a make belief deity’s laws for the laws of reality and then you lump rationality with obeying the made up deity’s commandments. Why, that's . . . Willie Nelson had it right but I like Patsy’s version best.

Crazy
By Patsy Cline
Crazy, I'm crazy for feeling so lonely
I'm crazy, crazy for feeling so blue
I knew you'd love me as long as you wanted
And then someday you'd leave me for somebody new
Worry, why do I let myself worry?
Wondering what in the world did I do?
Crazy for thinking that my love could hold you
I'm crazy for trying and crazy for crying
And I'm crazy for loving you
Crazy for thinking that my love could hold you
I'm crazy for trying and crazy for crying
And I'm crazy for loving you.
© NELSON, WILLIE
For non-commercial use only.

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Usually ad hominem is negative. Greg mixes it up with some positive ad hominem as if Geo. Wash. couldn't both be somewhat dopey and Father of the Country.

--Brant

dopey beliefs can sometimes get you through the night if not through your entire life, for they can displace suck the active life out of you ignorance as with spiritual and mystical beliefs now displaceable by science if you care to get half way educated--that is, a caveman at night in his cave, not hunting or fighting or eating or _______ or sleeping, contemplating so much to him unknowable existence, fills the vacuum in his brain with what we today would think literally to be nonsense, but abstractly transferable to the present with or without the "nonsense" caveat

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Peter writes:

I will smite, and you, you sinners!


For what you blame (unjustly accuse) God, your actually doing to yourself, Peter. It's the stupidity of blaming the law of gravity for what happens when you step off a cliff. You've only screwed over yourself when you get what you deserve for your own actions.

That's what happened to America... it screwed over itself.


Greg

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Brant writes:

...as if Geo. Wash. couldn't both be somewhat dopey and Father of the Country.

Well, there you have it... "somewhat dopey" George Washington who founded "somewhat dopey" America! :laugh:

America sure is dopey now that it abandoned its moral values... and is low hanging fruit just ripe for the picking for any opportunistic enemy who happens to come along.

(edited for precision :wink: )

Greg

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I don't think it matters that Jonathan Cahn's mumbo-jumbo numerology is a case of Seek and Ye Shall Find (confirmation bias). The Rabbi Pastor has left numerous escape clauses in his lunatic prophesies: he knows that the hysterical expectation of Financial Doom on the day in question (or rather the day after the day in question, God taking note of the western-world weekend) may be irrational.

Greg has all contingencies covered. If the 'worse than the first two times' Shmita Whoopee crash does not occur according to Cahn's timeline, it makes no difference: Greg is locked into a belief that America is doomed. No crash on the day-after-the-day? No problem. No crash as advertised: no problem.

I do think that Greg would never bring his fantastic beliefs up in ordinary conversation with strangers or associates or clients. This place, OL, is his sandbox, where he can shit on people and their opinions.

It is all entertainment. Too bad that Greg's Christophile whoopee degrades the forum. Too bad for the rest of us, great fun for him.

What is entertaining to me is actually viewing Cahn in action -- especially in action with his pal Jim Bakker. The end-time lunacy is simply cover for the Prepper business Bakker peddles from his Branson compound. I will post a video example later. To know that Greg is fooled by these odious pseuds is hilarious ...

Here are today's 'Love Gifts' at the Bakker site:

jimbakker_Products.png

Edited by william.scherk
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