Peter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Trump is trailing Carson in Iowa but still leading in New Hampshire. However a Carson early win will shake things up. If Carson wins . . . oh, the scrutiny we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 2012 - Rick Santorum won Iowa... Approximately 1/3 of Republican caucus attendees were evangelicals. Iowa is very unique in terms of the "caucus" concept of electing folks. A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 No more straw poll in Iowa this year...it has been eliminated by the Republican State Committee. The Republican Party caucus are much simpler than the Democratic. Republican Party process[edit] For the Republicans, the Iowa caucuses previously followed (and should not be confused with) the Iowa Straw Poll in August of the preceding year. Out of the six Straw Poll iterations, the winner of the Straw Poll failed to win the Iowa caucuses three times, in 1987, 2007, and 2011. In June 2015 the party announced that the Straw Poll would no longer take place. In the Republican caucuses, each voter officially casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them.[5] After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct and transmits them to the media.[6] In 2008, some precincts used a show of hands [7] or preprinted ballots.[8] The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party, which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the county conventions, which choose delegates to the district conventions, which in turn selects delegates to the Iowa State Convention. Thus, it is the Republican Iowa State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which selects the ultimate delegates from Iowa to the Republican National Convention. All delegates are officially unbound from the results of the precinct caucus, although media organizations either estimate delegate numbers by estimating county convention results or simply divide them proportionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 This speaks for itself: Never thought I’d Say… Donald Trump is a Giant Among Gop front runners‼️ cruz=devil? rubio=RAGE AGAINST WOMEN carson=JUST TELL ME WHY⁉️— Cher (@cher) October 23, 2015 And the thank you: So nice of @Cher--- greatly appreciated! https://t.co/11hmnFEP1S— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2015 I got you, babe... Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Ha! Univision Crew Booted From Donald Trump Campaign EventVariety StaffOctober 23, 2015Variety Trump's right, too. As the article said, he's suing them for half a billion dollars, so allowing them in could be construed as conflict of interest. btw - Here's the video of the speech. Trump was interrupted by hecklers a few times. I think they staggered their yelling since the disturbance was so short each time and the huge crowd drowned them out quicky. I presume they all were escorted out peacefully. Trump had fun talking about throwing them out as a metaphor for illegal aliens. Here is something I have not seen mentioned so far, but Trump said ISIS is cutting off the heads of people, drowning them in cages and so on, taking us back to the Middle Ages, and we can't even waterboard them. Then he asked incredulously, "What are we doing?" (or something to that effect). He also said the Bergdahl case will be revisited if he wins, along with a lot of other cases. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Goofy said, ahuk! If Trump loses Iowa I expect contrition on the part of the crow baiters. If Trump loses Iowa I want to hear some sad caws. If Trump loses Iowa I want a crow in every pot. If Trump loses Iowa I hope the energy shifts to Carson, Paul, Cruz, Rubio, and Fiorina. I get it that Iowa is not the half time of the game, but it is not what was expected just two weeks ago. If Trump were to win Iowa youse guys would be using it as evidence.Hmm? If I make fun of your favorite sports team's losing is that as bad as your favorite candidate losing? I'm reading a Patrick O'Brian seafaring novel (this may be my sixth in a row) and in it Captain Jack Aubrey's father is a radical member of Parliament and his speeches keep his son Jack from getting a command from the Tories in the Admiralty. As Jesus said Spite is not pleasant to see, so cancel that emotion. Caw! Gentlemen. Place your bets. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 For what it's worth, in the Miami rally above, Trump said he didn't believe the two Iowa polls because they came from organizations (Des Moines Register and Quinnipiac) that don't like him. (Read here for instance.)Also, it seems there was a blitz of attack ads right before the polling by Club for Growth. I suspect that many attack ads this early is a coordinated effort with the polling groups to manipulate perception, but we shall see. (I also suspect the ads were bombarded precisely in places where the people who were polled live, but that's me gossiping. )Previous establishment Republican and Democrat attempts to manipulate the press about Trump have blown up time after time. For example, remember Carly's bump? Where's that now? btw - She is playing the wrong game. The way the establishment Republican kingmakers spit her out right after she proved useful is just a small indication of what they will do in the future if she continues to try to be in cahoots with them. In fact, I believe Bill Kristol's so-called "prediction" of a Rubio-Fiorina ticket, see here, is merely a smokescreen to keep her fooled. As a further aside, in that same Morning Joe news panel mentioned in the link, Kristol said he will support a third party if Trump becomes the nominee. That shows how much the pledges of establishment Republicans are worth. Here's another impression of how Trump is doing in Iowa. I wonder how the attack ads and Ben Carson's ground game affected this crowd. Maybe they overlooked Burlington? Trump's Impact on Caucus Turnout Could be Yuuuugeby Craig RobinsonThe Iowa RepublicanOct. 22, 2015From the article:Donald Trump touched down in Burlington on Wednesday evening, bringing his campaign to the southeast corner of the state for the first time. The Burlington Memorial Auditorium has hosted plenty of political events before, but they are mostly confined to the main floor. On Wednesday, Trump packed all three levels of the building, which is the largest venue in town. Here's a photo of the crowd:Drip... drip... drip... Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Here's another thought for those who are wrapped in the mantle of anti-eminent domain sanctimonious when they criticize Trump.They--especially Club for Growth in the attack ads--blast Trump for his views on eminent domain, yet these same holier-than-thou folks support the Keystone Pipeline, which will profit a foreign company (TransCanada) that uses the USA eminent domain laws to get land. In fact, it is currently involved in 56 cases of eminent domain (according to a TV interview with Katrina Pierson, see here.)Granted, the following article from last March is from a highly progressive outfit, but still, facts are facts. And this is just one article among many.TransCanada Is Seizing People’s Land To Build Keystone, But Conservatives Have Been Dead Silentby Josh Israel & Katie ValentineMarch 1, 2015Think ProgressFrom the article:That question — how eminent domain can be used in a case like Keystone — has some anti-Keystone groups stumped too. But the groups that usually are vocal proponents of property rights, including the Institute for Justice, have been silent when it comes to the controversial pipeline.“I have not seen a single group that would normally rail against eminent domain speak up on behalf of farmers or ranchers on the Keystone XL route,” said Jane Kleeb, founder of the anti-Keystone group Bold Nebraska.That’s surprising to Kleeb, whose organization is supporting the efforts of a group of Nebraska landowners along the pipeline’s proposed route who have held out against giving TransCanada access to their land. She had thought that at least a few conservative or pro-lands rights groups would have voiced their general support for Keystone XL, but still denounced the use of eminent domain to get it built. That hasn’t happened, Kleeb said — not among property rights groups nor among most pro-Keystone lawmakers.Come on, anti-Trump folks!You can do it!Where's the soapbox outrage against big bad TransCanada and the Keystone pipeline confiscating some poor lady's land so they can make greedy oil profits? I guess people in our neck of the woods detest eminent domain, that is except when they like it. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Now that I am looking at this, look at all the Republican candidates who support the Keystone Pipeline:Here’s where every single presidential candidate stands on Keystone — except Hillary ClintonEvery single one of them.That means...wait for it...you know it's coming...it's gonna be ugly...here it comes... ALL OF THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT SUPPORT EMINENT DOMAIN!All of them.Even Ted Cruz.Even Carly Fiorina. Even Rand Paul.So there, Trump critics.Choke on it.Humph!Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 In the Republican Simplified turnout, the more disciplined supporters carry the day with this simplified format. Additionally, The Donald has a huge "trump card" already on board for Iowa. Building an election day operation one citizen at a time... A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It's painful to listen to him because of the way he talks, but the good news is Mike Tyson just endorsed Donald Trump: I found it interesting that the interviewer didn't know the difference between word perception and intent. Tyson asked him if he really believed Trump was a racist against Latinos. The guy sincerely seemed confused, saying that's the question or something like that. Then Tyson said he doesn't believe that. Also, that would mean all the people supporting Trump thought that way, and he doesn't believe that, either. A while back, Glenn Beck accused Tea Party people who support Trump of racism. It seems that Mike Tyson has more sense than Glenn does right now. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 And the thank you... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"<a href="https://twitter.com/julian771177">@julian771177</a>: Mike Tyson endorses <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> <a href="https://t.co/rKMkXAFeop">https://t.co/rKMkXAFeop</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MakeAmericaGreatAgain?src=hash">#MakeAmericaGreatAgain</a>" Thanks Iron Mike, greatly appreciated!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=" 27, 2015</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Trump on talking about policy specifics (from the New Hampshire town hall meeting yesterday): That makes a lot of sense to me. But then again, I'm a Trump groupie. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Here is one of the better articles I have read about Trump (on Bloomberg, which hates him, at that!).It's not complete (missing the producer issue, for example) or even 100% spot on (a forced hat-tip to racism), but perceptive enough that I will take it. Why Donald Trump Could Win the Republican NominationThe far right isn't what's buoying the populist plutocrat.by Sahil KapurOctober 27, 2015BloombergI especially liked this comment:Trump is offering Republicans something no other candidate can: An insider's knowledge of the elite combined with a mischievous determination to upend it and an unorthodox set of policy prescriptions—running the gamut from immigration to campaign finance to Social Security—that aim to achieve that goal. I have to admit, I enjoy seeing the elites squirm as they contemplate their true standing before that huge part of the American people they always take for granted and think is stupid.The best phrase I can think of to describe this is imagining them thinking, while gulping: "The jig is up."Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Trump on talking about policy specifics (from the New Hampshire town hall meeting yesterday):That makes a lot of sense to me.But then again, I'm a Trump groupie. MichaelThis is negotiation 101 - there is a Sandler Selling mantra that "you should never spill your candy in the lobby."This is essentially, at one level, precisely what The Donald was explaining.And is it possible that we could trade Matt Laur even up for the newsman that the Iranians just convicted?A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Is this the canary in the coal mine?The new trend starting?The fatal balloon puncture in the winner narrative?The crack in the dam that is a harbinger of the flood to come, that is, the final total irrevocable undoable complete devastating collapse and demise of Donald Trump?Poll Watch: Ben Carson Edges Ahead Nationally in Times/CBS News PollNYTOr is this the reality?Poll: Trump leads Carson by 14 points nationwideThe HillI know what I think and where I smell BS, but I might be wrong.(Nah... I'm not wrong...) Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selene Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Is this the canary in the coal mine?The new trend starting?The fatal balloon puncture in the winner narrative?The crack in the dam that is a harbinger of the flood to come, that is, the final total irrevocable undoable complete devastating collapse and demise of Donald Trump?Poll Watch: Ben Carson Edges Ahead Nationally in Times/CBS News PollNYTOr is this the reality?Poll: Trump leads Carson by 14 points nationwideThe HillI know what I think and where I smell BS, but I might be wrong.(Nah... I'm not wrong...) MichaelNow Michael, when has the Country Club Establishment Power Elite abused and misused black citizens as stalking horses...oops never mind ...A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Is this the canary in the coal mine?The new trend starting?The fatal balloon puncture in the winner narrative?The crack in the dam that is a harbinger of the flood to come, that is, the final total irrevocable undoable complete devastating collapse and demise of Donald Trump?No. At least, not in my opinion.There will be scores -- if not hundreds -- of polls between now and the February caucuses in Iowa. Perhaps Carson has a leg up on Trump at this very moment, but current polls that suggest Carson leading in Iowa could be anomalies (poor-quality samplings, poor-weighting of internet-based surveys, splits well within the margin of error, etc. See below for the kind of polling data that I think needs to be interpreted)Here's a neat CNN story of the Trump campaign's ground operation in Iowa, Donald Trump 2.0: Building a ground game. Rather than having a hidden or clandestine quality, the ground game seems rooted in pure smart hard-ass politics:At the campaign event in Burlington, staffers hustled through the crowd, handing out cards explaining how the caucus works and asking them to sign on as volunteers. Even before those conversations began, the campaign had contact information for many of the attendees. They had signed up online for free tickets to the event, entering their personal information, which is fed into the campaign's voter file. Back at the campaign's West Des Moines office, a box of hundreds of addressed envelopes sat -- amid boxes of t-shirts and yard signs -- waiting to be stuffed with the next shipment of Trump bumper stickers. Along with them recipients will find information about how supporters can organize. One sign their strategy may be working: A foot-high stack of completed "commit to caucus card," signed by Iowans. Here are the descriptive paragraphs accompanying an AP-GfK national poll that explores Favorable/Unfavorable attitudes to candidates (this is just a part -- read to the bottom of the document to see full details):This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of 1,027 general population adults age 18 or older. The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. At inception participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and since 2009 through Address-based sampling using the post office’s delivery sequence file. Persons in these households are then invited to join and participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®.For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides at no cost a laptop and ISP connection. People who already have computers and Internet services are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. The data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age within sex, education, race, and phone type. The phone type targets came from the fall, 2012 MRI Consumer Survey. The other targets came from the March, 2012 Supplement of the Current Population Survey.-- that's a whole lot of huh? at first read. But I think each poll methodology has to be inspected before its particular weaknesses can be judged.To the AP-GfK findings, here are the figures on Ben Carson and Donald Trump:One could argue that these unfavorable soundings are but transient signals, subject to change week to week -- and that argument may be convincing. But even if transient and of negligible interest in themselves, such soundings might be the biggest impediment to a Trump in the White House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 William,The NYT/CBS poll was for the entire nation.One day before the GOP debate.I smell a skunk, but I am biased.Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Oh, for God's sake.Glenn Beck just said the following (see here):“Donald Trump would put us out of business overnight,” Beck said. “He would put us out of business. He would work tirelessly to put us out of business.” I am seriously going into disillusion mode with Glenn.What a bummer...Setting aside the sheer silliness of this comment, Glenn has kept up a nonstop barrage of criticism, mockery and vitriol against Obama--much worse than anything he said against Trump so far. And he's done that against Obama before and after two elections to boot.So if Obama didn't shut him down (using, say, the IRS, FCC, or any number of federal agencies), why in hell does he think Trump will?What a "sky-is-falling" chickenshit...Arrrggghhh...(I gotta find that smiley because this is taking me to a bad place. )Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
william.scherk Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 William,The NYT/CBS poll was for the entire nation.One day before the GOP debate.I smell a skunk, but I am biased.I tend to have more faith in the One America poll (cited by The Hill blog) than the NYT/CBS poll, on the basis of the numbers -- the NYT/CBS poll's sample of Republicans is comparatively small and has a larger margin of error. I also note that the 'topline' methodology is not quite clear for the CBS/NYT poll. Apparently, further details will be released in an hour or so.For steely-eyed wonks and the phlegmatic like me (emphasis added):NYT: "The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Oct. 21-25 on cellphones and landlines with 575 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points for each candidate. Additional findings from the full poll will be published Tuesday at 6:30 p.m."-- sure enough the CBS story points to fluidity and utters reasonable caveats (or covers the poll's flabby ass):But the state of the race can change. Seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is too early to say for sure that their mind is made up about which candidate they will support. This percentage is about what it was at a similar point in the Republican race four years ago. While Carson may have moved to the top of the pack, Trump's supporters are more firm in their candidate choice than Carson's. More than half of Trump voters say their minds are made up about which candidate to back, compared to 19 percent who are currently backing Carson.The NYT/CBS poll methodology spelled out in the CBS article so far (emphases added):This poll was conducted by telephone October 21-25, 2015 among a random sample of 1,289 adults nationwide, including 1,136 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. An oversample of registered voters who are Republican was interviewed for a total of 512 interviews with Republican registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the Republican registered voters is 7 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 575 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points.-- back to the Hill story that gave a couple of details on the "Trump Lead Holds" polling conclusions (with emphasis added):Trump has a 14-point lead over his nearest competitor before the contest in Boulder, Colo., according to a One America News Network survey. The poll questioned 906 registered Republicans and has a 3-point margin of error. [...]Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 2,606 registered voters in the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The sample includes 906 Republicans, 1,037 Democrats, and 663 Independents/Other party. The poll has a margin of error of ± 2% [3% for Republicans/Democrats]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted for One America News Network.I should mention again that I was fooled by poll aggregates leading to the Canadian election. There was a last-minute making-up of minds that gave Trudeau a thumping majority. I had guessed a minority and was off by forty seats!For fun/consternation, a rather crabby Washington Post article that tries to take on bias and foolery, Debunking the Donald Trump poll deniers, by the sublimely-named Philip Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 William,I saw that Bump thingie. Rush Limbaugh said for Trump supporters to steel themselves because the Drive-By Media is about to hysterically blitz out that Trump has peaked yada yada yada... And this should continue for a few days after tomorrow's debate.For some reason, Rush doesn't seem to place much credit with the NYT/CBS poll, either. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I saw the debate tonight and was going to post some things about it. For example, as usual, Trump is killing it with the online polls right now, Drudge, Time, etc., even CNBC's own online poll. I personally think Trump is going to rise in the voter polls some more, but let's see. That's not what excites me right now. Since we have some preeminent gay intellectuals on OL, I just came across the following at the Huffington Post: Gay YouTube Personality 'Comes Out' In Support Of Donald Trump"Long before Hillary Clinton supported gay marriage and gay rights, Donald Trump supported equal rights for everybody," he says.by Curtis M. Wong, Gay Voices Senior EditorThe Huffington Post10/28/2015 From the article: YouTube personality Kyle Kittleson is shaking up the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) blogosphere by expressing his support for Donald Trump -- and "not in an ironic way," either. In a five-minute video, the Los Angeles-based Kittleson said he plans to vote for Trump, who he bizarrely praises as a "slightly crazy uncle who's a little behind the times, but still knows what's best." Wong seems to be in shock and none-too-happy, but he posted the video in the article and the facts (which he cannot bring himself to believe ). Here is a recent Tweet from Kittleson: Seriously, my inbox is filled with lgbtq trump supporters. https://t.co/dS2dYvrOH4— Kyle Kittleson (@Kyle_Kittleson) October 27, 2015 If you look at the comments to the YouTube video and elsewhere with Kittleson, there is a lot of nastiness, but also lots of people saying the same thing as in the tweet. And all these LGBTQ Trump supporters sound serious. Just thought y'all might like to know. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Trump's weakness from the debate last night: <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kL6fic62WWU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> I tend to have this weakness myself. Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Stuart Kelly Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 And, of course, Trump's strength for those who can see it: Huckabee's comments about Trump (both tie and capability) made the debate worth it for me. (I had another video here earlier, but I switched it for this one so people could see the level of questions the moderators threw at the candidates and the public reaction.) Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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