Canadian federal election: Socialists at the Gates?


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The next Canadian federal election is slated for this October 19 -- a shorter season than in America, and different also in that the current Parliament still rules until the arcane machinery of 'the dropping of the writ," which dissolves Parliament and signals the big official campaign. Our Prime Minister will initiate the dropping of the writ in mid-September.

As with the polling of GOP and Democratic contenders for your 2016 primary elections, we rely on today's polls at our peril. But I thought I would highlight the latest opinion from the analytic site ThreeHundredEight.com. In a nutshell, the New Democratic Party (the quasi-socialist party that swept to power in Alberta recently) has a narrow 3 point lead over the other two dominant national parties. The ruling Conservatives may be in deep trouble.

Much may change between now and October, but with the Alberta election as evidence, many things undreamed of may yet come to pass.

Here's a link to a Tory Woes story in the Vancouver Province newspaper, and a graphic from 308 that depicts a scenario for the next Parliament. (I am almost thinking I should issue a call for guesstimates as has Adam regarding the final matchup in your Presidentials, but I don't think anyone besides me and Jules have interest enough to lay qualified bets. Jules, is your skin crawling yet? What the hell can explain these numbers?)

Projection%2BFront.png

As the image says, Cliquer pour plus d'information.

Edited by william.scherk
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What negative policies do you think the socialists may implement?

Have a gander at the NDP policy book and take your pick. Depending on your orientation, the entire book is hideously wrong and potentially destructive. This is the messaging that tries to reach Canadians who would rather die than read a policy book.

Here's a bit from their constitution that is also indicative.
New Democrats are proud of our political and activist heritage, and our long record of visionary, practical, and successful governments. That heritage and that record have distinguished and inspired our party since the creation of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation in 1933 and the founding of the New Democratic Party in 1961. New Democrats seek a future that brings together the best of the insights and objectives of Canadians who, within the social democratic and democratic socialist traditions, have worked through farmer, labour, co-operative, feminist, human rights and environmental movements, and with First Nations, Métis and Inuit peoples, to build a more just, equal, and sustainable Canada within a global community dedicated to the same goals.
Beyond your take on those items, bear in mind that polls will change, they may lose their lead and fail to form government. If they do form government, they have the choice of making a formal coalition, or attempting to rule with less than a plurality of seats in Parliament.
To summarize my take, the odds are 50/50 they form government, if they do they will have a coalition with the Liberals. If so the coalition will split the cabinet, which will pull the government back towards the centre line. The government would most likely pursue a prudent course. Any legislation that doesn't already have the backing of a majority of Canadians in all regions will be set aside for another day.
First, finances. Judging from the Saskatchewan experience, it is possible to run a balanced budget, even in hard times. The finance minister would be in the cold grey tradition of recent past, fiscally prudent, dedicated to long-term stability and growth in markets.
Socially, there isn't much left to do for a libertarian-lefist party. We have all the first-world socialist trappings, from pensions to healthcare to gay marriage.
With immigration, steady as she goes. With environmental issues, a foot on the gas. Militarily a slight shift toward peace-keeping over combat. On refugees, a big but empty gesture. On global issues, UN, treaties, international trade and investment, steady as she goes.
The ship of state doesn't really take radical movements up here. If you want to know roughly how a socialist party performs in a business-oriented country, just dig into Alberta political news since the NDP's surprising Orange Crush in Alberta (check the opposing predictions in this farmer's magazine article).
Robin, Canadian politics are usually as attractive as a funeral, so thanks for the question. I expected this thread to go into coma until October.
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How can you sleep through communism, Brant?

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Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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  • 1 month later...

Zzzzzzz, continued.

The next Canadian federal election is slated for this October 19 -- a shorter season than in America, and different also in that the current Parliament still rules until the arcane machinery of 'the dropping of the writ," which dissolves Parliament and signals the big official campaign. Our Prime Minister will initiate the dropping of the writ in mid-September.


I was wrong about mid-September, thinking that the Prime Minister would have dissolved Parliament later. Parliament was dissolved yesterday. The official race is on, and ends October 19th, 2015.

This means a long, nasty and expensive campaign by Canadian standards -- most federal campaigns are only around forty days from the writ dropping till the final score. Parties have all selected candidates or are close to final nominations in each district riding.

Strikingly, the leftist, leftest NDP is still poised to collect the most votes nationally, and to amass the most seats in the new Parliament. From the latest soundings:

"It’s said a pending execution focuses the mind, and the same goes for a pending election. Voters have been teased for weeks by advertising that looks like a campaign and quacks like a campaign, yet isn’t a campaign. Now the government has released the hounds, as it were, people are deciding they like the place they’ve parked their vote recently, and are coming off the fence and ending up with the NDP for now. However, no one alive has seen an 11 week campaign. Much can happen in that time, because campaigns, and their errors, forced and unforced, do make a difference," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

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Edited by william.scherk
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  • 2 weeks later...

A quirky advertisement from an independent candidate is gaining a bit of play (I saw it on the Washington Post site first).

The polls are almost exactly the same as last time I reported. NDP marginally ahead in national totals, in seat-counts just behind the ruling Tories. Our election is in 68 days ...

election_Poll2.png
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That ad should disqualify Canadians for commenting on American elections.

 

However, the Aussies put out a clever wine commercial...

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

If I weren't such a conscientious citizen I would vote Rhinoceros.

Nothing like the horny vote...

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Nice one.

But as to politics, the elephant in the room, the world in which my domestic fantasies will maybe becoming true as we go leftward... the abysm of misery which is Syria, has become a key election issue now. Thanks to the power, and the glory, sometimes, of immediate social media. A different issue than your immigration issue, but maybe not so different.

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Hi Carol.

(Apropos migrants and where they choose to head, would you believe it was a full-on Socialist and writer, one Leo Rosten, who came to this realisation?)

"I learned that it is the weak who are cruel, and that gentleness is to be expected only from the strong".

Once more unto... and somewhere, some time, the Left swings to the Right, and somewhere else, the Right to the Left. Ho hum.

That one doesnt work so well in practice (this one doesn't make us feel good and moral about ourselves):

Let's try the other again.

A pox on both political houses.

See ya ;)

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Nice one.

But as to politics, the elephant in the room, the world in which my domestic fantasies will maybe becoming true as we go leftward... the abysm of misery which is Syria, has become a key election issue now. Thanks to the power, and the glory, sometimes, of immediate social media. A different issue than your immigration issue, but maybe not so different.

Thanks Carol...I hope it is a significant other or good family immersion that keeps your fine mind and pen from posting.

I am not trying to be clever here, however, immigration is a two way street.

An invasion, by the aggressor, the looter, or, the desperate has to be recognized by the country being invaded .

As Tony pointed out, only the strong can be compassionate because they are strong.

We, America, and the West, are no longer strong.

We have to help ourselves if we decide to help others.

Then we have to decide who is valuable to us as a priority within those "others."

Then we must, if we are to help, to do it in a constructive way wherein we have the portals and folks wait to be absorbed at our pace.

A...

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For a brief and sad/hilarious moment, it's 'silly season' for electioneering.

'Peegate' memes flood Twitter after Tory candidate caught urinating in mug; Conservative spokesman says Jerry Bance no longer a candidate for Toronto riding

It would take to long to explain. Follow the link at your own risk ...

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For a brief and sad/hilarious moment, it's 'silly season' for electioneering.

'Peegate' memes flood Twitter after Tory candidate caught urinating in mug; Conservative spokesman says Jerry Bance no longer a candidate for Toronto riding

It would take to long to explain. Follow the link at your own risk ...

Isn't it time we all grew up and recognized that we've all "peed in the sink."

And women have squatted and peed behind a car door.

peeing-out-window.gif

A...

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For a brief and sad/hilarious moment, it's 'silly season' for electioneering.

'Peegate' memes flood Twitter after Tory candidate caught urinating in mug; Conservative spokesman says Jerry Bance no longer a candidate for Toronto riding

It would take to long to explain. Follow the link at your own risk ...

Isn't it time we all grew up and recognized that we've all "peed in the sink."

You are wrecking the fun, Adam. Wrecking it, I say ...

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For a brief and sad/hilarious moment, it's 'silly season' for electioneering.

'Peegate' memes flood Twitter after Tory candidate caught urinating in mug; Conservative spokesman says Jerry Bance no longer a candidate for Toronto riding

It would take to long to explain. Follow the link at your own risk ...

Isn't it time we all grew up and recognized that we've all "peed in the sink."

You are wrecking the fun, Adam. Wrecking it, I say ...

I peed on the kitchen chair.

Visiting my grandparents in Wash D of C in 1960 they left all the lights off a tnight and I really had to go and really didn't know where the bathroom was or the light switches. Finally I found the toilet. Halfway through my "business" I realized I was in the kitchen pissing on a chair. I may have switched over to the sink. Don't remember. I was mortified. I do know it was the first time--and last time--I ever pissed on a kitchen chair.

--Brant

is the fun back, now, William? (If a thread's about Canada, it's impossible to go "off topic")

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Golden Showers bring May ________________

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Water and sex don't well mix.

Try some oil.

--Brant

so I've been told

Only if you roll in the sand...

Then you will know the meaning of true grit, with apologies to that evil Mason John Wayne...

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  • 3 weeks later...

Tonight was the first leaders' debate in French. It was, as they say, excellante. Only three of the five speak French as a maternal language (Mssrs Mulcair, Trudeau and Duceppe). I haven't seen a Youtube posted yet of the part where they all went crazy talking over each other for a full two minutes, but I give samples below.

[High Zzzzzzzzzzzz quotient, Brant. Beware. Adam. expecting the perfect 'lingual' images. Everyone else, these paragraphs could cause death by boredom through suffocation]

The two leaders who were not born into a bilingual or French-speaking family -- Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Green Party leader Elizabeth May -- are not equally at ease in French. When each one took a seat in the House of Commons, each proceded to get up to speed in French. In Pierre Elliot Trudeau's time a uniligual English-speaking didn't do that. It wasn't expected then. But since that time, an unspoken rule had been evolving. Unilingual eaders had been encouraged by their own party wonks to ultra-cram French (image, think Donald Trump cramming French). Wonk logic said, "You can get us X extra votes for us in Quebec. It's all gravy."

One who could amost be cast as a victim of the rule was, Preston Manning of Alberta, who led the Loyal Opposition in Ottawa. He had a most painful sqawk in English and after great striving, he unveiled a heavily accented sqawking French on TV. It was a sublime performance. For a mental image, think of s Peikoff/Don Knotts naturally scary twang just butchering the pronunciation -- while being in charge of grammar and vocabulary.

Manning' succeeded in getting the job done, even if the return on his investment was a bit grotesque at the start. He got better. Preceding the French cram he had been coached in English, to smooth out his natural squawk, and its Peikovian cadence.

As soon as someone comments anew, I will post a video of Manning in English. Now back to the debaters.

Harper is now quite assured in French, and May has come a long, long way. The PM's accent has moved from hick blockhead to just plain blockhead, and he can speak faster than May. May now sounds not as disabled as she did the last election ... Trudeau has a slight lisp in French but not in English. Mulcair speaks English and French without an accent.

Those with an ear for French will notice that the accent of each leader is completely North American, Canadian-French. A French person from France would think every one of them had the same country twang.

Here is a short extract wherein the candidates react to the sentence of crucifixion handed down for a young Saudi Arabian man. At issue is whether or not Canada should place sanctions on that strange and awful theocratic monarchy ...

Here they tackle the subject of 'paradis fiscaux' (fiscal paradise). This refers to tax havens abroad (shades of le Ravin de Galt and LFC...).

In this, the leaders give a précis of their views on the nexus of terrorism and police power.

I'd be interested to know how some of you read the body language in the exchanges. If you did not know the lineup or party affiliations, which 'spoke' most authentically and with most gravitas?

Edited by william.scherk
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