Jerry Biggers

"Experts" claim record cold caused by global warming

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Now you just knew that they would come up with this "explanation, didn't you! :wacko::huh::rolleyes:

1/7/2014

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By Eric Holthaus, The Atlantic Cities

DCC37A9B5A09682A06B7852D9EA44.jpg

How global warming can make cold snaps even worse

The cold air pushing toward America's heartland is of a duration and magnitude rarely seen since record-keeping began in the 1870s. In Minneapolis, forecasters warned that all-time wind chill records could be broken, with a stunning -65ºF predicted for Monday morning.

As the record-setting cold spreads across the US, brace yourself for this conversation:

Your friend: "Sure is cold outside, amirite? Minneapolis is as cold as Mars right now. Crazy, huh? So much for that whole global warming thing, eh?"

You: "Well..."

In fact, despite the trolling of Donald Trump and other climate change deniers, global warming is probably contributing to the record cold, as counter-intuitive as that may seem. The key factor is a feedback mechanism of climate change known as Arctic amplification. Here's how to explain the nuts and bolts of it to your under-informed family and friends:

Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates, leaving behind relatively warmer open water, which is much less reflective to incoming sunlight than ice. That, among other factors, is causing the northern polar region of our planet to warm at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere. (And, just to state the obvious, global warming describes a global trend toward warmer temperatures, which doesn't preclude occasional cold-weather extremes.)

Since the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes helps drive the jet stream (which, in turn, drives most US weather patterns), if that temperature difference decreases, it stands to reason that the jet stream's winds will slow down. Why does this matter?

Well, atmospheric theory predicts that a slower jet stream will produce wavier and more sluggish weather patterns, in turn leading to more frequent extreme weather. And, turns out, that's exactly what we've been seeing in recent years. Superstorm Sandy's uncharacteristic left hook into the New Jersey coast in 2012 was one such example of an extremely anomalous jet stream blocking pattern.

When these exceptionally wavy jet stream patterns occur mid-winter, it's a recipe for cold air to get sucked southwards. This week, that's

Climate scientiest Jennifer A. Francis of Rutgers University explains this process in a short video (h/t Climate Progress).

This effect has already been measured with mid-level atmospheric winds in the northern hemisphere decreasing by around 10% since 1990. Not-so-coincidentally, that's about the same time when Arctic sea ice extent really started to crash.

BAA2971AD21DDA1CF3530C3A9879.jpg

The solid line is average west-to-east wind speeds midway up the atmosphere; the dashed line is Arctic sea ice extent.

The solid line is average west-to-east wind speeds midway up the atmosphere; the dashed line is Arctic sea ice extent.

Skeptical Science (the 'Snopes' of climate science) has a comprehensive explainer on Arctic amplification and the jet stream, for those that want to dig deeper on the subject. And, as a PSA, is a great-go to resource when situations like this arise.

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Now you just knew that they would come up with this "explanation, didn't you!

Yes.

And note the code language:

1/7/2014

By Eric Holthaus, The Atlantic Cities

DCC37A9B5A09682A06B7852D9EA44.jpg

How global warming can make cold snaps even worse

[....]

In fact, despite the trolling of Donald Trump and other climate change deniers, [...].

As if anyone denies that climate changes.

Also, of course, the mentioning of Donald Trump, not exactly a scientist, and then "other climate change deniers," as if all such persons were scientifically unqualified.

Ellen

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The eco phreaks will blame the next ice age on the capitalists. Just wait and see.

By the way, the Climatic Panic Squad uses the term "climate change" rather than "global warming"

Ba'al Chatzaf

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In fact, despite the trolling of Donald Trump and other climate change deniers, global warming is probably contributing to the record cold, as counter-intuitive as that may seem. The key factor is a feedback mechanism of climate change known as Arctic amplification. Here's how to explain the nuts and bolts of it to your under-informed family and friends:

Joe Romm is a Fellow at American Progress and is the Founding Editor of Climate Progress, which New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called "the indispensable blog" and Time magazine named one of the 25 "Best Blogs of 2010." In 2009, Rolling Stone put Romm #88 on its list of 100 "people who are reinventing America." Time named him a "Hero of the Environment″ and “The Web’s most influential climate-change blogger." Romm was acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, where he oversaw $1 billion in R&D, demonstration, and deployment of low-carbon technology. He is a Senior Fellow at American Progress and holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT.

mail-32.png Contact Joe Romm

I think we should all contact him, politely and set up a debate...

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Lindzen [...] does not present his work at scientific conferences [...].

He does if one can manage to get him invited. :laugh:

The article Mike linked, post above, in general is surprisingly accurate.

Ellen

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By the way, the Climatic Panic Squad uses the term "climate change" rather than "global warming"

Really? Do you notice posts other than yours?

Ellen

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As I recall, when the Soviet Union collapsed that was attributed not to the failure of Socialism rather to the Capitalist reforms which had been adopted by Nikita Krushev.

To quote one of my heroes, despite his hand going up along with other aspirants for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, when they were asked if they believed that Evolution was just a theory, Ron Paul, "Never give up!"

gg

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Today's WSJ online had an interesting item, titled Two Newsmagazines in One!

  • "Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds--the so-called circumpolar vortex--that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world."--Time, June 24, 1974
  • "Not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely. Right now much of the U.S. is in the grip of a polar vortex, which is pretty much what it sounds like: a whirlwind of extremely cold, extremely dense air that forms near the poles."--Time.com, Jan. 6, 2014

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A number of years ago, Robert Bidinotto entitled an article about the so-called ecology movement as "Green Cathedrals." Pointing out the similarity with religious movements. Rational argument is not required when faith can do the job.

Heat waves in the summer "prove" global warming; whereas cold wave "vortices" in winter also "prove" global warming. Make sure the interpretation of facts/events fits into the Green Cathedrals ideology/religion.

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I guess this is not quite Hell freezing over...however, it is damn close and incredibly beautiful...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10560654/In-pictures-Niagara-Falls-freeze-over-on-US-side.html?frame=2785374

There are more in the gallery!

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What I Learned about Climate Change: The Science is not Settled

-David Siegel

"I’m a Democrat: I think governments play a key role in helping preserve our environment for the future in the most cost-effective way possible. Over the years, I built a set of assumptions: that Al Gore was right about global warming, that he was the David going up against the industrial Goliath. In 1993, I even wrote a book about it.

Recently, a friend challenged those assumptions. At first, I was annoyed, because I thought the science really was settled. As I started to look at the data and read about climate science, I was surprised, then shocked. As I learned more, I changed my mind. I now think there probably is no climate crisis and that the focus on CO2 takes funding and attention from critical environmental problems. I’ll start by making ten short statements that should challenge your assumptions and then back them up with an essay."

Critical Thinking:

"M y journey into critical thinking has taught me to hold strong opinions loosely. I’ve been more wrong in my life than I thought was possible. Now I try to put my reactions aside and look at all the evidence before coming to a conclusion."

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One commentator asked whether this man had armed security guards around him when he walks on campus...although he does hate corporations and likes "some" government regulations:

Reality: A sample of over 1,500 representative U.S. adults revealed that those who felt climate change was not much of a risk scored as well or better than those worried about climate change when given standardized tests of numeracy or scientific literacy. So if you really care about doing something about emissions and climate, do not make the mistake that those who disagree with you do not know the science or are in any sense not as well-informed or as smart as you are. Instead, think about why their positions make sense within the framework of their social values and how to talk about climate change in terms of those values.

http://www.environment.ucla.edu/peter-kareiva/blog/back-to-school-unlearning-nine-environmental-myths

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Please be aware that warming -can- cause cooling. Here is how.

1. Temperatures rise.

2. Arctic Ice melts making the ocean less salty

3. This will slow or stop the haline conveyor that brings warm water to the North Atlantic.

4. The Climate around the North Atlantic cools (that means England and Northwest Europe freeze in the winter)

5. More snow falls and glaciers start to form

6. This increases the reflectivity of the Northern Hemisphere causing more snow to fall.

7. If this positive feedback is extended it could bring another extend cold spell like the 'Little Ice Age' (1300-1750) or it could start a real Ice Age thus ending the current extended interglacial period the world has enjoyed for the last 8-10 thousand year.

Climatic conditions are very much affected by feed back loops both negative and positive.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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What I Learned about Climate Change: The Science is not Settled

-David Siegel

"I’m a Democrat: I think governments play a key role in helping preserve our environment for the future in the most cost-effective way possible. Over the years, I built a set of assumptions: that Al Gore was right about global warming, that he was the David going up against the industrial Goliath. In 1993, I even wrote a book about it.

Recently, a friend challenged those assumptions. At first, I was annoyed, because I thought the science really was settled. As I started to look at the data and read about climate science, I was surprised, then shocked. As I learned more, I changed my mind. I now think there probably is no climate crisis and that the focus on CO2 takes funding and attention from critical environmental problems. I’ll start by making ten short statements that should challenge your assumptions and then back them up with an essay."

Critical Thinking:

"M y journey into critical thinking has taught me to hold strong opinions loosely. I’ve been more wrong in my life than I thought was possible. Now I try to put my reactions aside and look at all the evidence before coming to a conclusion."

There currently is no "climate science". There are climate models which are not very good. They ignore the thermodynamics and tout a bogus notion of the "atmospheric greenhouse effect" The reason why greenhouse are so warm as the the glass enclosure prevents atmospheric convection. CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT behave like a glass enclosure. While CO2 will slow the rate of heat transfer to space it does not prevent it. Look up Adiabatic Lapse Rate. As long as the atmosphere can convect it will transfer heat into space by radiation.

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What I Learned about Climate Change: The Science is not Settled

-David Siegel

"I’m a Democrat: I think governments play a key role in helping preserve our environment for the future in the most cost-effective way possible. Over the years, I built a set of assumptions: that Al Gore was right about global warming, that he was the David going up against the industrial Goliath. In 1993, I even wrote a book about it.

Recently, a friend challenged those assumptions. At first, I was annoyed, because I thought the science really was settled. As I started to look at the data and read about climate science, I was surprised, then shocked. As I learned more, I changed my mind. I now think there probably is no climate crisis and that the focus on CO2 takes funding and attention from critical environmental problems. I’ll start by making ten short statements that should challenge your assumptions and then back them up with an essay."

Critical Thinking:

"M y journey into critical thinking has taught me to hold strong opinions loosely. I’ve been more wrong in my life than I thought was possible. Now I try to put my reactions aside and look at all the evidence before coming to a conclusion."

There currently is no "climate science". There are climate models which are not very good. They ignore the thermodynamics and tout a bogus notion of the "atmospheric greenhouse effect" The reason why greenhouse are so warm as the the glass enclosure prevents atmospheric convection. CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT behave like a glass enclosure. While CO2 will slow the rate of heat transfer to space it does not prevent it. Look up Adiabatic Lapse Rate. As long as the atmosphere can convect it will transfer heat into space by radiation.

And there won't ever be any "climate science" beyond categorizations and identifications until replicatable experiments can be done.

--Brant

best: chemistry then physics; next level down: biology and then geology--etc.

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The Thermodynamics of gases has been created out of experience and experiment since 1824 when the French scientist Sadi Carnot discovered the second law of thermodynamics. The part of thermodynamics most solidly established is the thermodynamics of gases, liquids and phase changes. In addition to studying nature in the large, laboratory measurement and experiment bolstered by superb mathematical analysis has established thermodynamics as the most solid and "certain" of the physical sciences. Quantum theory has added to the power of thermodynamics in dealing with the energy states of substances near absolute zero in the Thermodynamic (Kelvin) Temperature Scale.

The famous physicist Arthur Eddington said this about thermodynamics, in particular The Second Law:

the law that entropy always increases, holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell's equations — then so much the worse for Maxwell's equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation — well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation.

Sorry guys, no perpetual motion.

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The Thermodynamics of gases has been created out of experience and experiment since 1824 when the French scientist Sadi Carnot discovered the second law of thermodynamics. The part of thermodynamics most solidly established is the thermodynamics of gases, liquids and phase changes. In addition to studying nature in the large, laboratory measurement and experiment bolstered by superb mathematical analysis has established thermodynamics as the most solid and "certain" of the physical sciences. Quantum theory has added to the power of thermodynamics in dealing with the energy states of substances near absolute zero in the Thermodynamic (Kelvin) Temperature Scale.

I especially like this for it illustrates the natural interactions of the two disciplines of physics and chemistry and practical higher mathematics.

--Brant

hope I got that right

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The Thermodynamics of gases has been created out of experience and experiment since 1824 when the French scientist Sadi Carnot discovered the second law of thermodynamics. The part of thermodynamics most solidly established is the thermodynamics of gases, liquids and phase changes. In addition to studying nature in the large, laboratory measurement and experiment bolstered by superb mathematical analysis has established thermodynamics as the most solid and "certain" of the physical sciences. Quantum theory has added to the power of thermodynamics in dealing with the energy states of substances near absolute zero in the Thermodynamic (Kelvin) Temperature Scale.

I especially like this for it illustrates the natural interactions of the two disciplines of physics and chemistry and practical higher mathematics.

--Brant

hope I got that right

You got it right.

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The scientific area in which the current majority of climatologists has fallen down is in the area of feed-backs. Feed-backs are just plain tough to deal with. Why? Because they are almost always non-linear in their nature. Also some of the climate factors which not only include atmosphere but also oceans and seas (a great deal) and land (somewhat). There are both non-linear and chaotic processes going on.

Our physical sciences do not deal with non-linear process and chaotic processes very well. The classic equations of turbulence, the Navier Stokes equations are not completely resolvable even to this day. While we have the computer power to grind away at them we do not have in all applicable cases stable numeric methods guaranteed to convert to solutions of the equations. Lacking such stable algorithms means that computers be they ever so fast, power and well programmed are NOT guaranteed to produce solutions.

The Milenium Foundation is offering a million dollar prize for a complete or more complete set of stable approximation algorithms. Such algorithms are worth far more than a million dollars. They could give us insights into both weather and climate we do not currently have.

What the climatologists have done is to ignore the tricky parts of feedback and weigh the effects of CO2 more heavily than they should. Yes, brothers and sisters, CO2 does slow down the rate at which the atmosphere transfers its heat to the upper atmosphere and space. But it does so at a much slower rate than the current received opinion allows.

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CO2 is also a trace gas; no competition for oxygen and nitrogen so it's good "climate change" pr and propaganda to ignore that fact.

--Brant

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CO2 is also a trace gas; no competition for oxygen and nitrogen so it's good "climate change" pr and propaganda to ignore that fact.

--Brant

CO2 is plant food.

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