Post Collapse Bottlenecks

[dennislmay]

I have not seen any scholarly articles or books on post collapse economics - specifically what items to hoard now for when they will not be available later.

There are obviously all kinds of specific sales pitches out there in many forms but you would think the large and growing survival industry would generate some scholarly articles or serious texts on the subject.

I know from ancient times till now responsible military and political people have understood strategic materials planning. Since virtually no one would now claim we have a responsible government such planning would seem to fall upon individuals.

I'm sure most scholars from libertopia would see this as beneath them to even address - and certainly against their politics. Where is the John Lott of economic thought on his issue?

Dennis

[dennislmay]

I have not seen any scholarly articles or books on post collapse economics - specifically what items to hoard now for when they will not be available later.

There are obviously all kinds of specific sales pitches out there in many forms but you would think the large and growing survival industry would generate some scholarly articles or serious texts on the subject.

I know from ancient times till now responsible military and political people have understood strategic materials planning. Since virtually no one would now claim we have a responsible government such planning would seem to fall upon individuals.

I'm sure most scholars from libertopia would see this as beneath them to even address - and certainly against their politics. Where is the John Lott of economic thought on his issue?

Dennis

I guess we will have to let the multi-billion dollar survialist related market decide without input from those claiming to be scholars of economics.

Dennis

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Dennis,

One of the best resources for this I have come across is here. (It's a PDF file.)

Various people offer this work as an enticement for you to get on their email list, or they sell it, but I got this link off a normal Google search--so all is fair in love and war. (I already had this thing from a few years back and I was just now looking for a place where you could get it.)

You can hone up on your bartaring skills with the hungry mobs--all courtesy of US government training (the CIA to be specific).

How to barter and how to handle and persuade desparate people are two critical skills you need to learn in order to prepare well for an economic collapse.

Michael

[dennislmay]

Dennis,

One of the best resources for this I have come across is here. (It's a PDF file.)

Various people offer this work as an enticement for you to get on their email list, or they sell it, but I got this link off a normal Google search--so all is fair in love and war. (I already had this thing from a few years back and I was just now looking for a place where you could get it.)

You can hone up on your bartaring skills with the hungry mobs--all courtesy of US government training (the CIA to be specific).

How to barter and how to handle and persuade desparate people are two critical skills you need to learn in order to prepare well for an economic collapse.

Michael

Thanks for the link. I have worked with one super salesman before and have known 2-3 extreme ladies men, and one I would call a super ladies man so I have some understanding of sales techniques. Unfortunately I discovered in my early 30's that I give off a vibe that leads a great many people to fear me. At first I thought it was a one time fluke but my brother has confirmed for me talking to people who know me personally that I have mannerisms which generate fear. Apparently I give off the appearance of someone who is angry and ready to physically kick ass at any moment. Nothing could be further from the truth but it is good to know I don't have a future in face to face sales.

This link is OK as an introduction but I was already familiar with most of what it had to say by the 2nd time I became concerned about collapse [during Clinton's first and 2nd year].

I am more interested in a technical and scholarly work on supply availability and distribution with estimates of material in stock with times to run out of stock. Also critical supplies that require foreign shipments which may no longer exist. The Chinese are making a science of this by attempting to buy up critical materials world wide. In the 70's and early 80's the Soviets were doing the same thing.

Survival after the collapse may depend on knowing what is not obvious but still valuable.

Dennis

[syrakusos]

... I discovered in my early 30's that I give off a vibe that leads a great many people to fear me. At first I thought it was a one time fluke but my brother has confirmed for me talking to people who know me personally that I have mannerisms which generate fear. Apparently I give off the appearance of someone who is angry and ready to physically kick ass at any moment. Nothing could be further from the truth but ...

Yeah.... you have a lot issues. Who does not? But clearly, Dennis, you do not see yourself as others see you.

MSK: Thanks, also. This was pretty good. Like any skill, negotiating must be practiced. We do this at numismatic conventions and local coin shows. No price is carved in stone. Still, some people are better at than others. As the booklet suggested, never "split the difference" just because it is offered. Yet, it is common, even on the bourse floor. Without conscious and objective investigation, people just fall into habits. I have recommended Getting to Yes, This came to me when I invited an advisor from Heritage Auctions to speak at our Educational Forum at a Mchigan State Numismatic Society convention.

Dennis, to answer your original question, you must have the wherewithal to compile such a list. You have work experience and education and general knowledge enough.

Myself, if I were concerned in general, as you are, I would think of batteries. Batteries in their glory from D-cell and AAA to the ones that go in computers to the little buttons that are so expensive retail could become scarce and even serve as an ad hoc currency. I have several little gizmos like light-up pens and pointers that sit dead in a box because the batteries cost more than the toy. Good thing I don't need one for a hearing aid or pacemaker or somethiing. ...

Computer batteries are so varied that you could be over-invested too easily, unless you stuck to the most common for Del, MacBook, iPad, etc. A couple of weeks ago, I saw three homeless guys setting down in a drainage ditch near a strip mall. One of them was taking out his laptop. They probably were getting a wifi link. He will need to take good care of that battery, as will 40 million other people, perhaps...

Vitamins are another and I do not mean One-a-Day or Centrum Silver, but somethng more serious and for your needs easy to recognize, such as Solaray. Men's and Women's are different - iron is the big thing: women need it; it's poisonous to men.

Batteries and vitamins have good shelf lives, but they do have shelf lives. How do you intend to rotate your stock while waiting for the end of the world? You will end up going into the battery or vitamin business now. We received our first boxes of freeze dried foods for our "Mormon Cupboard" back in 1982.

Oh, yeah... Lubricants, oils, and greasers, from the finest machine oils to the glop for packing bearings. I see the militias and gangstas running out of gun oil long before they run out of ammunition. Those farm ladies with their sewing machines will need the machine oil as much as will any tool and die shop -- and the farm ladies will have food to trade for it.

Finally, on the matter of personality above, you can disparage everyone else's short-sightedness for not addressing this sooner. It's a fair point; and you are right. But now that you know, how is it not incumbant on you to do this? The perception of the missing piece here sort makes you the entrepreneur, does it not?

[dennislmay]

Dennis, to answer your original question, you must have the wherewithal to compile such a list. You have work experience and education and general knowledge enough.

I have started to do so a few times and still have a couple of the lists. With the interest being as large as it there would seem to be a need for an encyclopedia size set of texts on the subject. So far all the literature I've seen is little more detailed than what I've already done for myself.

The perception of the missing piece here sort makes you the entrepreneur, does it not?

Apparently so.

I have an intense dislike of auctions and generally of bullshitters trying to wheel and deal - they are so transparent to me they often piss me off [perhaps bullshitters are the ones who perceive me as angry?]. I can't tell you how many times old farmer types have tried to talk me out of old vehicles for 1/4 to 1/10th of what they are worth. It is very rare for me to wheel and deal anything buying or selling. I generally know what things are worth [if they are things I am interested in] within a few percent so that is the price period unless you have something to trade. I guess some people take pride in being able to wheel and deal with anyone - I'm not that way buying or selling. Every day low pricing baby...that's what I like.

Dennis

[syrakusos]

That's fine... the marketplace pretty much makes room for everyone. I have known coin dealers who are kind, and other who are evil. But, it is the matieral, not the man, that I buy, so we learn to work with a wide range of people. It is a skill to practice and your local Ace Hardware owner behind the counter is a natural at working with different kinds of people or she would not be there.

In your case, I would say that your task is to show why your price is the right one. We do that with price lists from reputable compilers, for instance, recent auction results, even citations to eBay, if not to another one just like it two tables down. You might also try now to get used to asking for more than you think it is worth. That is what comes from putting yourself in the other person's shoes, to see the greater value from their perspective.

MSK's link did recommend setting your opening price. It did not say to know your bottom line. I think you should. If you ask for more up front, you can give it away to win the sale at the price you really want... and you might get more than your bottom line somewhere between.

Also, of course, the thoughts are about "cash" for "goods" but really you are thinking in terms of barter of goods for goods. What's your price in machine oil for a dozen D-cell batteries? Getting one over on the other guy - as your farmers try - works in a cash economy. Barter takes more brains.

What would you think of putting up a blog or website of your lists so far?

Also, from your original post, you also want market research on those potential bottlenecks industries. That will take serious time, far more than my obvious perceptions about batteries, oil, and vitamins. Again, it's your puppy...

[dennislmay]

What would you think of putting up a blog or website of your lists so far?

Also, from your original post, you also want market research on those potential bottlenecks industries. That will take serious time, far more than my obvious perceptions about batteries, oil, and vitamins.

I agree that it would take serious time. I started making a website which would have included this as a subset a couple years ago following a discussion on Atlantis_II - I recently took it down having lost interest in other aspects of what the site was to be about.

It needs to be a startup venture with several researchers and sold as a software package. Not my area of interest but I would certainly be a customer if someone were to do it.

It needs to involve a diverse set of people with a wide range of backgrounds. The survivalists encylopedia on DVD with web updates and survivalist news. It should be customizable based on input from the consumer - no sense in talking about simple stuff in particular areas where a person is already an expert.

That's my 2 cents - hopefully silver or gold.

Dennis