Selene

November 6th, 2012 - Final Post-Mortem: An Autopsy On Constitutional America...

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I wonder how you voted on the bridge referendum, which I was pleased to see. The owner of the Windsor-Bridge-is-falling-down spent about $40 million to try and keep his monopoly on the crossborder traffic, but Michign voters in the words of one, "failed to be bought". Well done sirs and mesdames.

That would be Proposal 6. That silly one issue one project drama started several years ago and they likely spent more money on that then any group did on any of the other the six proposals we had in Michigan. Sadly the opposition commercials were equally silly and one was even sophomoric but in the end we voted it down. In fact we voted all 6 proposals down which was a good thing.

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I was listening to Jason Lewis the other night, and he had an interesting theory that I haven't heard from others, which is that the Republicans didn't see the Democratic voter enthusiasm coming because they (the Republicans) were measuring potential voter turnout based on their polling of voter enthusiasm for Obama, and not based on voter enthusiasm for various ballot initiatives in the various states. Basically, if it were not for voters having the opportunity to have their say on issues such as gay marriage, the definition of marriage, immigration issues and marijuana, etc., a lot of Democrats would have stayed home. The initiatives brought them out, and thus Obama rode their coattails. And the Republicans overconfidently contributed some of the initiative themselves, most of which went down in defeat.

J

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How about just garden-variety incompetence to help things along?

You start by adopting a piss-poor eavesdropping idea (literally people eavesdropping on people) for voter control, make a piss-poor computer program out of it called Orca, compound your error by not training your people in how to use it, compound the error even further by making it centralized without any redundancies or Plan B, then have the damn thing crash right when you need it:

An inside look behind Romney's loss: An epic failure of its Orca big-data app

The wonder isn't why so many people didn't show up to vote for Romney, the wonder is that so many did.

Michael

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Garden-variety incompetence sure aids failure (of the 'ground game' of GOTV), but I find more fascinating the explanations of Obama's re-election coming from the right of centre: Republicans are going to build a new narrative of failure, perhaps.

Here is a video compiled from a number of post-mortems. Somewhere from this grab-bag will emerge the new story:



Edited by william.scherk

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Long and short of it. There is a disconnect between Ken Doll Mitt with all his buddies and the electorate. Mitt did not get the Mandate of Heaven in spite of the fact he is a Mormon Bishop.

The electorate by and large wants some kind of a welfare state. Unfortunate, but true.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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I haven't checked into it, but the Fox News types were saying that Silver was totally wrong in 2010.

Whoever those 'Fox News types' were, they were full of shit. Silver's models are a matter of record. If the types had checked that record for 2010 midterms, they would have found out this:

  • Silver predicted that the GOP would pick up 7 Senate seats. The actual total was 6.
  • Silver predicted a net gain of 54 GOP House seats. The actual total was 63.
  • Silver predicted the outcome of 37 Governor races. He was correct in 36.

(it's worth noting that -- according to his own confidence intervals -- each of the 2010 predictions was within the 'margin of error' ... since each prediction was accompanied by a statistical power explanation).

I was following RealClearPolitics as closely in 2010 as I have been this year, and Silver's predictions weren't that good in 2010.

I don't know what this means, "not that good." If that means "not that perfect," sure. But what is this about -- 100% accuracy (as with 2012), within the margins of error, or what? I do not know what to compare Silver's 2010 models to. Maybe there were some models that attempted to call the three races types and were significantly that much gooder ...?

-- Adam has made a couple of compelling points in the varied pre- and post-Electoral Apocalypse threads. One that stuck in my mind was the disjunct between his strong assertions ('It's over' ... Mutton victory in sight for Pennsylvania) and his actual at the time lurking suspicions that he was wishin' and a hopin' -- that the internal polls (weighted against Obama turnout/Dem turnout) gave the Republicans false confidence.

I think this shows what one major problem was within the campaign -- they believed their own best, sunniest predictions derived from 'weighted' polling internals, and did not consider (or breathe a word of) the possibility that their very framework of analysis was biased.

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The electorate by and large wants some kind of a welfare state. Unfortunate, but true.

Ba'al Chatzaf

Quite so. Where I am, one can see the causes and effects of welfare statism as clear as daylight (hey, different location, many contrasting variables - but don't think not the exact same principles).

It is not only the axes of the collectivist/individualist, socialist/capitalist divide - but also of an authoritarian/self-authority divide, I think.

The progressive-liberal appears to suspect his fellow men, and that can only come from little respect for himself. He needs to place his authority in a 'greater power' than himself - and the State is only too happy to oblige: keeping the populace weak, and reliant on it, is the foundation for continuing control by our second-handed masters.

Everything in nature emanates from a center, and rests on a base. For any populace the center and base is the self and mind of each man and woman. Glossing over this fact is what makes "the collective" a feasible concept. It opens the way to a surrender of self-authority to the "will of the majority", and over to our masters and nannies - who thrive on it.

It takes a 'spiritual grown-up' to put in the hard effort to find his or her independence and self-responsibility, to expect the best of human nature, but be confident to handle anything less - while the timid 'spiritual child' craves security in the welfare state. That's it in a nutshell - children and adults.

Statism in my country says "Yes - you can't: We know your weakness; we'll equalize everyone so nobody has to feel inferior or own less."

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Shakespeare had something to say about all of this:

Brutus:

There is a tide in the affairs of men.

Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;

Omitted, all the voyage of their life

Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

On such a full sea are we now afloat,

And we must take the current when it serves,

Or lose our ventures.

Wm. Shakespeare "Julius Caesar"

Ba'al Chatzaf

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"The electorate by and large wants some kind of a welfare state. Unfortunate, but true."

Ba'al Chatzaf

That being the case it remains for them to be made aware that the very best "welfare state" would be the very kind of state we here at OL advocate. It would be one with sound money backed by gold and silver, that is with no inflation to deal with. Also jobs would be plentiful and technology would be advancing driving all costs down. There will be a need to deal with depletion of natural resources and the free market would be best at that. See. www.peakprosperity.com especially the Crash Course to be found there.

All those who favor the traditional welfare state, altruists or otherwise, attempt to use coercion to "make sure" that those in need are taken care of. Isn't it true that the best way to "make sure" without coercion is to institute a truly free market economy?

The goal would not be egalitarian rather it must be accepted that there would be inequality still the poorest person today lives better than ancient kings before the industrial revolution and that would be true in the future as well.

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Well, we certainly have "libertine" government as she wishes in her last sentence...

"The housewives of West Point...Generals being led by their privates..." as Rush explained...

Don't these Generals have people to kill?

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The electorate by and large wants some kind of a welfare state. Unfortunate, but true.

I don't think the electorate knows what it wants, but needs to be convinced of what is good and right. Romney didn't successfully convince them that his vision is good and right. Obama gave the impression of having absolute, righteous, moral certainty in his own position, and clearly showed a willingness to use everything at his disposal against Romney and the immorality that Obama thinks he represents. He was willing to fight, scratch, claw, lie and smear. Romney, on the other hand, consciously chose to avoid hitting Obama on issues which Romney held the moral high ground. He thus gave the impression of being "presidential" but of lacking moral certainty of his positions and of not standing up to corruption, dishonesty and/or incompetence. I think his doing so communicated the concept to the masses that Obama isn't immoral and deserves a break. He cut Obama lots of slack, and then the voters did too.

J

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http://www.peikoff.com/2012/11/19/what-do-you-think-of-the-2012-presidential-election-results/

Peikoff says the election is the "worst political event ever to occur in the history of this continent."

Anyone have a spare set of marbles? Someone's lost theirs.

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When asked to respond, the 618,000 casualties of the Civil War were unavailable for comment...

You don’t say if you listened to the Peikoff clip, but he specifically brought up the Civil War and said the 2012 election is worse. It’s going to set up the legal framework which will then be used to turn us into a theocracy. If you’re not quaking in your boots right about now you’re just not paying attention, you evader, you.

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When asked to respond, the 618,000 casualties of the Civil War were unavailable for comment...

You don’t say if you listened to the Peikoff clip, but he specifically brought up the Civil War and said the 2012 election is worse. It’s going to set up the legal framework which will then be used to turn us into a theocracy. If you’re not quaking in your boots right about now you’re just not paying attention, you evader, you.

I will admit that I didn't have the time or the inclination to listen to LP's "analysis," so my Civil War reference only accidentally hit the mark. I wonder if LP is aware that the writ of habeas corpus was suspended during said war...

Peikoff seems to be inclined to a religious variant of the reductio ad Hitlerum fallacy, i.e., that every four years the voting public is one step away from creating a theocracy (as opposed to a new Holocaust).

Let's go ahead and call this the reductio ad Falwellum fallacy...

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Let's go ahead and call this the reductio ad Falwellum fallacy...

How about reductio ad Torquemadum instead? Falwell wasn't nearly successful enough to merit the honor. Or reduction ad Ayatollum, since that's more recent.

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http://www.peikoff.c...ection-results/

Peikoff says the election is the "worst political event ever to occur in the history of this continent."

Anyone have a spare set of marbles? Someone's lost theirs.

He only has four minutes and thirty-eight seconds to panic, so he kind of has to simplify.

My favourite bit is his Romney port-mortem. Romney's campaign was empty, and had no appeal to those who only care about "am I getting my contraceptives, am I getting my welfare, etcetera."

Add to that Peikoff's panicky reach for the big adverbs like 'vastly.' Did you know that the US military will be 'vastly' reduced?

One sad affect of age is slackening vocal control. Peikoff sounds three Chivas up on all of us.

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At a certain level, this is where I perceive the common sense of the electorate concerning the welfare state...

 

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/WxnaZ0SANr8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Peron:]
Dice are rolling, the knives are out
Would-be presidents are all around
I don't say they mean harm
But they'd each give an arm
To see us six feet underground

[Eva:]
It doesn't matter what those morons say
Our nation's leaders are a feeble crew
There's only twenty of them anyway
What is twenty next to millions who
Are looking to you?


All you have to do is sit and wait
Keeping out of everybody's way
We'll ... you'll be handed power on a plate
When the ones who matter have their say
And with chaos installed
You can reluctantly agree to be called


[Peron:]
There again we could be foolish not to quit while we're ahead
For distance lends enchantment, and that is why
All exiles are distinguished, more important, they're not dead
I could find job satisfaction in Paraguay

[Eva:]
This is crazy defeatist talk
Why commit political suicide, there's no risk
There's no call for any action at all
When you have unions on your side


[Workers:]
A new Argentina, the chains of the masses untied
A new Argentina, the voice of the people
Cannot be denied

[Eva:]
There is only one man who can lead any workers' regime
He lives for your problems, he shares your ideals and your dream
He supports you, for he loves you
Understands you, is one of you
If not, how could he love me?

[Workers:]
A new Argentina, the workers' battle song
A new Argentina, the voice of the people
Rings out loud and long

[Eva:]
Now I am a worker, I've suffered the way that you do
I've been unemployed, and I've starved and I've hated it too

But I found my salvation in Peron, may the nation
Let him save them as he saved me

[All:]
A new Argentina, a new age about to begin
A new Argentina, we face the world together
And no dissent within


[Peron:]
There again we could be foolish not to quit while we're ahead
I can see us many miles away, inactive
Sipping cocktails on a terrace, taking breakfast in bed
Sleeping easy, doing nothing, it's attractive

[Eva:]
Don't think I don't think like you
I often get those nightmares too
They always take some swallowing
Sometimes it's very difficult to keep momentum
If it's you that you are following
Don't close doors, keep an escape clause
Because we might lose the Big Apple

But would I have done what I did
If I hadn't thought, if I hadn't known
We would take the country

[Eva:]
Peron has resigned from the army and this we avow
The descamisados are those he is marching with now
He supports you, for he loves you
Understands you, is one of you
If not, how could he love me?

[All:]
A new Argentina, the chains of the masses untied
A new Argentina, the voice of the people
Cannot be, and must not be denied


[Che:]
How annoying that they have to fight elections for their cause
The inconvenience, having to get a majority
If normal methods of persuasion fail to win them applause
There are other ways of establishing authority


[All:]
A new Argentina, the chains of the masses untied
A new Argentina, the voice of the people
Cannot be, and will not be, and must not be denied.

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I posted on some websites before the election that this is what the country needs if this person wins

-a kick in the ass

Most replies were no no don't say that

but here it is, we are going to hit bottom

hopefully that won't happen-or hopefully it will

now I understand why companies have outsourced to China, Mexico and the philippines etc

they were going galt (that expression has been used a lot but it fits)

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Let's go ahead and call this the reductio ad Falwellum fallacy...

How about reductio ad Torquemadum instead? Falwell wasn't nearly successful enough to merit the honor. Or reduction ad Ayatollum, since that's more recent.

Per ardua ad absurdam.

Reductio ad lib.

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. . .

The inevitable consequences of the ruinous, longstanding inflationary policy which is going to continue to provide the President with newly created fiat currency for him to spend is bound to manifest itself in a hyperinflationary depression within the next few years. . . .

In this recent short audio, Yaron Brook replies to the line of question: Based on the facts of our debt, isn't an imminent collapse of the U.S economy inevitable?

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If I weren't so lazy about such things, I would figure out how to embed this little video.

Much wisdom in there, I think.

This is a really interesting thread.

http://youtu.be/z2Q7YRDL90E

I was searching for a thread to place this Romney story to and this will have to do:

Mitt Romney is moving quickly to reassemble his national political network, spending the weekend and Monday calling former aides, donors and other supporters — as well as onetime foes such as Newt Gingrich.

Can explain to me why you would even want to re-assemble a failed national political network?

Should we bring back the "Oldsmobile sucking a lemon E-Car?"

280px-1958_Corsair_Daten.jpg

The 1958 Edsel Corvair

Romney’s message was that he is serious about making a 2016 presidential bid. He told one senior Republican he “almost certainly will” run in what would be his third campaign for the White House, this person said.

His aggressive outreach over the past three days indicates that Romney’s declaration of interest to a group of donors in New York Friday was more than the release of a trial balloon but rather was the start of a concerted push by the 2012 nominee to be an active participant in the 2016 campaign.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-moves-to-reassemble-campaign-apparatus-for-2016/2015/01/12/d968592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html

A...

Well, at least he is considering talking to Newt, at least he has ideas and knowledge.

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The Edsel failed for it was competing with the Mercury, a car with better design bones. The Mercury Turnpike Cruiser was a beautiful car for the late 1950s, especially as the basic GM and Ford cars went ugly in 1958 because of the slow design learning curve on quad headlights and stayed ugly for several years. The 1958 Ford looked great out of the gate, but had no staying power and it was chucked anyway for the horrible 1959 and the stupid 1960. A new model every year and they couldn't do a good job of fast switching. The 1958 Chevy was like nothing after the '55, '56 and '57. The '59 was only a little-bitty better but so bad the '60 was a relief but ultimately forgettable.

--Brant

I think the 4-seat T-Birds were better than the 2-seaters for the the 2-seaters were never sports cars anyway

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My uncle had this beauty ...

torch57_8.jpg

Notice how clean the parking lot is ...pre fast food?

http://www.portholeauthority.com/thunderbirdETC/tbird/colors57.html

Some really nice pictures in there.

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