Nothing To See Here ...Chill, Jews Aren't Voting Republican...Yet The Poll Shows A Drop Of 12+%

[Selene]

Chill. Jews Aren't Voting Republican.

Gershom Gorenberg

April 11, 2012

Faith-based policy, nativism, and Ayn Randian economics will not create a Jewish electoral shift.

Forecasts of the Great Jewish Shift began as soon as the presidential campaign did: This year, we are told, Jews will finally vote Republican, or at least significantly more of them will than have done so in many a decade, perhaps forever.

The predictions are a quadrennial ritual. They are made most often by Jewish Republicans, speaking in the bright voice of a compulsive gambler who knows that on this spin, the little ball will absolutely land on the right number. They are made by social scientists certain that reality will finally behave according to their models. They are made by Jewish

Democrats as unable to control their anxiety as someone is to stop a tic. This year's minor variation is the explanation that Jews will switch because they are upset with Barack Obama's attitude toward Israel.

As an Israeli political writer, I admit, I am particularly conscious of this ritual, because the Great Jewish Shift (GJS) is the second thing that people want to discuss with me as soon as I get off the plane in America, after they ask me if Benjamin Netanyahu will bomb Iran and before I have put down my suitcase. I do not know if Netanyahu will bomb Iran; he does not tell me such things. However, I submit that there is considerable public evidence that the GJS will not happen this year. A newly released survey of American Jews provides the latest data. History and the Republicans' demonstrative cluelessness about Jewish voters provide more.

The survey, conducted by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in Washington, found that 62 percent of Jewish voters want to re-elect Obama, compared to 30 percent who'd vote for a generic Republican. Let's reframe that: 92 percent of Jews say they've made up their mind. Of them, just over two-thirds would vote for the incumbent, and one-third for the GOP challenger.

Yes, this would be a drop-off from the 78 percent of Jews who voted Obama last time around, according to exit polls. It would not be a vast historic shift. Republican contenders won between 31 percent and 39 percent of the Jewish vote in four out of the five elections between 1972 and 1988. But the poll results do not actually suggest even that much of a change since the 2008 election. "Current levels of support for Obama among Jewish voters are nearly identical" to those "at a comparable point in the 2008 campaign," says the PRRI polling report. Between the spring of 2008 and November that year, Obama's Jewish support rose. Was that a result of onetime, nearly accidental circumstances, such as John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin? Probably not. Suspected of moderation, McCain needed a running mate to satisfy the Republican base—and even a more qualified ultra-conservative would have been a deal-killer for wavering Jewish voters. Massachusetts Mitt Romney will face similar pressure to reassure his right flank. Besides, I suspect that Palin was a pretext, rather than a cause, for many Jews to return to the fold.

It's one thing to register under-satisfaction with the Democratic candidate by telling a pollster in the spring you'll vote Republican. It's another to defy upbringing and instinct to mark the ballot that way in November, especially while imagining your brother or aunt asking you over Thanksgiving dinner how you voted.

If Obama does lose some Jewish support, Israel won't be the reason. Only 4 percent of PRRI's respondents listed Israel as the most important issue for them in the election, and only another 5 percent listed it in second place. Some of those were already in the Republican camp, perhaps most. Anyone who is terribly impressed that Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu are old friends from their days as apprentice robber barons was not a likely an Obama voter to begin with.

The historic context for reading the poll goes back further than 2008. Those elections in the 1970s and 1980s actually represent an unusually high level of Jewish support for the GOP, which has dropped off significantly since. Even in 2004, when the Republican predictions of the GJS were particularly manic, George W. Bush managed to get just a quarter of the Jewish vote.

If the GOP is even less popular among Jews than it was a generation ago, the reason is apparent: The party has become ever more rigid and homogenous in its economic and social conservatism, and its tests of ideological purity send none-too-coded messages to Jewish voters.

The party's anti-abortion stance is not only an attack on reproductive freedom; it is an obvious demand to base law and policy on the beliefs of conservative Protestants and Catholics about when life begins. It broadcasts disdain for a religion-neutral polity. The party's nativist orthodoxy toward immigration projects fear of difference, of anyone outside a narrowly defined "us." Opposition to same-sex marriage encodes both messages at once. These are not messages designed to attract Jewish voters. Jewish comfort and safety in America—unique in Jewish history—rest upon cultural openness and religious neutrality.

As for economic issues, look again at the PRRI poll: 81 percent of respondents supported the Buffett Rule for increasing taxes on millionaires. Nearly three-fourths agreed with the statement that the American economic system "unfairly favors the wealthy." A majority of those with household incomes over $125,000 a year said they'd be willing to pay more taxes to support programs for the poor. This is not a target audience for the Ayn Randian policies of the 2012 GOP.

Yes, the standard disclaimer is in order: Anything could happen before November: renewed recession, an Iranian nuclear test, $10 a gallon gasoline, an unexpected White House scandal. What affects the non-Jewish swing voter can also sway the uncertain Jewish voter. But the primary campaign has served to sharpen the Republican political identity: against economic equality, for faith-based policy, against difference. No matter how much Mitt Romney would like to shake his Etch A Sketch, neither the Obama campaign nor the GOP base will allow him to drop the Republican brand.

And the Republican brand is not engineered to produce the Great Jewish Shift.

[Selene]

Here is a secret picture of Jews walking away from the Peter Principle President and the Gallop article that confirms the beginning of the landslide rout of this incompetent...

Gallup Poll: Jewish Support for Obama Plummets

Sunday, June 10, 2012 03:40 PM

In the first significant drop in Jewish support for a Democratic Party candidate in over two decades, President Barack Obama has seen a 10-point plunge in support among Jewish voters, according to the Gallup polling agency.

To put the decline in perspective, Obama is pulling in the same support among Jews as Michael Dukakis, the former Massachusetts governor who lost to George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Gallup notes the 10-point drop is "five points worse than his decline among all registered voters compared with 2008.”

Specifically, Obama currently has the support of 64 percent of Jewish registered voters, according to Gallup. This is 10 percent less than the percentage of Jews who voted for Obama in 2008. Republican Mitt Romney enjoys 29 percent support among Jews.

The move is significant because American Jews have been bedrock supporters of the Democratic Party for decades. Often regarded as instinctively liberal but hawks on support for Israel, Jews are a key voting bloc in Florida, one of a handful of high electoral vote “swing” states Obama must win to defeat Romney. Their votes also could make a difference in a close race in Ohio or Pennsylvania.

The Republican Jewish Coalition notes the 29 percent of Jewish voters who support Romney, represents the “highest level of Jewish support for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.” RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said that if the numbers hold in November, they would spell "a disaster" for Obama and his party.

Gallup noted that while Jews are only 2 percent of the general population, Jews tend to vote in higher numbers than other groups – 83 percent of Jewish registered voters said they definitely would vote in comparison to 78 percent of the general public.

Though the organization pointed out that Jewish voters “typically are not critical groups in deciding presidential election outcomes,” given the tight race between Romney and Obama to date, “every additional bit of support they can muster among [Jewish voters] could be valuable to their winning the election.”

The Gallup survey of 576 registered Jewish voters between April 11 and June 5 with a +/- 5% margin of error.

A recent poll by the liberal Jewish Workman's Circle has shown even worse numbers for Obama, yet how the numbers are to interpreted depends on the interpreters. Some Democrats see the latest Gallup poll as a sign Obama's support among Jews is now rising, reports Arutz Sheva, an Israeli national news website.

And the Gallup numbers were actually up from a 61-28 margin found by an American Jewish Committee survey from March of this year.

But conservatives, sensing a very crucial trend, strongly disagree that Jewish support for Obama has leveled off. Since 1988, all Democratic nominees have received more than 64 percent of the Jewish vote: "…Kerry, Gore, and Clinton all cracked 75 percent, and Jimmy Carter raked in 71 percent when he was elected in 1976." the conservative Hot Air blog recently wrote.

"The only nominees who failed to reach 70 percent in the past 35 years were, er, Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter in 1980, the last of whom nearly lost the Jewish vote to Reagan."

There is a hint of good news for Obama, though. Gallup polls also indicate that Obama held only 62 percent of the Jewish vote in June of 2008, before the final number rose to 74 percent in November. A similar dynamic could kick in this year, too.

In June, a poll conducted by Public Religion Research Institute a plurality – 35 percent – of Jewish voters rated themselves as “disappointed” with the Obama presidency, while 33 percent rated themselves as “satisfied.” And 46 percent of Obama’s Jewish supporters reported that, while they support him, they’re “not excited” about casting a ballot for him.

====================================================

It is going to be much worse amongst the prime Jewish voters.

[GALTGULCH8]

To Whom It May Concern,

I cannot account for the choices Jews make although I am considered one of them. Or at least, with a name like Cohen, for which I have to thank a nameless bureaucrat who worked on Ellis Island when my grandfather got off the boat from Riga in the 1890s, I am numbered among the Jewish people.

I prefer to think of myself as a human being capable of rational thought and I identify with men and women throughout history who were thinkers and scientists and iconoclasts.

Now I have to warn you as if you didn't know that we are on the verge of a severe, are there any other kinds, hyperinflation. I just read part of the latest version of John WIlliams Hyperinflation Report and encourage you to give it a look:

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012.pdf

At some point the dollars you hold and others are willing to accept in payment will become as worthless as toilet paper. While stores are still willing to let you exchange them for real products I urge you to store the kinds of items you will need for use or barter.

It can happen at any moment and once it does you will wish you had heeded my advice.

That is the argument my son used when recommending Atlas Shrugged to friends: It is the kind of book that, once you read it, you will wish you had read it sooner.

But you cannot eat it so I suggest such things as tuna fish, cereal, water, nuts and the like which will be gone from the shelves as hard as that is to believe.

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012.pdf

[BaalChatzaf]

Guys, guys. There are not enough Jews registered to vote to make that big a difference. Among Jewish voters registered to vote the turn out will be in the 90s. By 90 percent of not so many is not so many.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Reidy]

On the other hand, the special election in New York's mostly-Jewish 9th district last year, to replace Weiner, went Republican for the first time in 90 years. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz was moved to say after the election that “It’s a very difficult district for Democrats.”

[Brant Gaede]

If you are a Democrat, liberal and Jewish--where to go to if the first makes you uncomfortable that wouldn't make you more uncomfortable?

--Brant

[anthony]

The worst, least rational reason for a Jewish turn-about would be one only based

on the "Israel Question", I think.

(and that's coming from an Israel supporter.)

[Selene]

Obama's Jewish Support Drops 22 Points in New York

3:16 PM, Jun 12, 2012 • By DANIEL HALPER

President Obama's support among Jewish voters in the state of New York has dropped 22 percentage points in only a month, according to the results of a just released poll.

The poll, conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama's lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points.

Previously, in Siena's May poll, Obama had the support 62 percent of Jewish New Yorkers, while 32 percent opposed him. That means, last month, Obama's lead among this group of voters was at a strong 30 percentage points.

Those polled were responding to this straight forward question: "If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were [barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or Don't know]?

Additionally, Jewish voters in New York overwhelmingly believe that America is "headed in the wrong direction" as opposed to "the right track," by a margin of 62 percent to 31 percent.

Perhaps most troubling for President Obama's prospects with Jewish voters were these two questions. "Overall, would you say that you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, about the same as you were four years ago, or worse off today than you were four years ago?," the poll asked. Only 13 percent of Jewish New Yorkers said that they are better off now, under Obama, while 41 percent said that they are doing worse. (Forty-five percent said they're doing the same.)

And this one: "And how about the country as a whole, Would you say that the United States is in better position now than it was four years ago, about the same as it was four years ago, or worse off today than it was four years ago?" Only 27 percent of Jewish New Yorkers said that the U.S. is in a better position, while 49 percent said America's position is worse. (Twenty-two percent said the position of this country has not changed.)

==============================

Contrary to Ba'als admonitions above, even the NY Times knows why the Jewish vote is critical to electing a President, specifically a Democratic President:

The bare-knuckled campaign for Jewish votes seems surprising. After all, Jews comprise less than 2 percent of the national population, and have for years defied the laws of political gravity by earning like the wealthiest of America's voters and voting like the most disadvantaged ones. Why then are both parties focused upon them?

First, Jews are known for participating actively in civic affairs. They vote with their pocketbooks before Election Day, contributing heavily to political campaigns, and they vote in reliable numbers on election day, with as many as 80 percent of eligible Jewish voters turning out at the polls. In a close election where both money and votes count heavily, a small number of Jews can make a very large difference.

Second, Jews are geographically concentrated. Some 85 percent of them live in just 20 metropolitan areas. Winning votes in those areas is critical to any presidential candidate's election prospects. In 2004, even a small shift of Jewish votes to the Republican Party in states like

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

could spell the difference between a clear Electoral College majority for Bush and another cliffhanger.

Third, pundits believe that the Jewish vote is up for grabs. As the American Jewish community grows wealthier, more suburban, more deeply rooted in America, and more estranged from liberal critics of Israeli policy, Jewish voters - so the argument goes - are growing restless. They do not want either party to take their votes for granted.