Make Your Picks - Mississippi/Alabama/Hawaii/American Samoa

[Selene]

March 13

Mississippi 40

Gingrich 35%

Romney 33%

Santorum 24%

Dr. Paul 7%

other 1%

Alabama 50

Gingrich 35%

Romney 33%

Santorum 24%

Dr. Paul 7%

other 1%

Hawaii Caucuses 20

Romney 50%

Santorum 32%

Dr. Paul 12%

Gingrich 6%

American Samoa 9 25% Mormon!

Romney 70 %

Santorum 12 %

Dr. Paul 10%

Gingrich 8%

[Peter]

We got a big packet with picture included from Mitt yesterday. I signed my name to a duel gift of 25 dollars to the Romney campaign, the first time I have done that though I gave the same amount to “Restore Our Future,” one of the main Mitt Pacs a few months ago. Hawaii, I would expect to go to Romney, but none of the Southern States. If Mitt gains delegates there it will be beyond his honest expectations. I did not know Samoa was a big Mormon enclave. If Newt is the big loser he should drop out because he is only helping Romney and hurting Santorum.

I don’t think Ron Paul can get enough delegates, even if it goes to a brokered convention. But Ron has a clear Libertarian message and could be one of the brokers.

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

I did not know Samoa was a big Mormon enclave.

As of 2010, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints website reports membership in 1990 was 7,500, increasing to about 12,000 in 1994, which is about one in four American Samoans.^[44]

I assume that it is about the same now.

Adam

[Selene]

Mississippi with 92% of the precincts reporting: - Santorum wins Mississippi - completes the sweep of both southern states

Santorum 32.9 %

Gingrich 31.4 %

Romney 30.2 %

Dr. Paul 4.4 %

Other 1.1 %

[Selene]

Alabama 77 % reporting - Santorum wins Alabama - completes the sweep of both southern states

Santorum 34.9 %

Gingrich 29.5 %

Romney 28.4 %

Dr. Paul 5.0 %

Other 2.2 %

[Selene]

Boy was I wrong on both of these states!!!

[william.scherk]

The white right of Alabama and Mississippi has spoken

The great states of Alabama and Mississippi performed that excellent ritual of American politics, white people primaries. The level of basic education in the two states is so low, the aversion to reality-checks among Republicans so high (where half Republicans think Obama is Muslim -- a smaller percentage than believe Creation is truth and that reject 'inter-racial marriage') that the two guys who have not a chance against Obama scramble for the two first places ... with a small plurality by Santorum over Gingrich in both.

Well, at least apparently the primary electorate is dimly aware of their own prejudices. They do not accept Muslims, evolutionists, abortionists, and can count their own black activists with two feet, they do not accept dirty atheists or gays, or womenfolk who oppose the Transvaginal Express**. They know this about themselves, they know what they want, and only 1 in 5 find Romney conservative enough for their tastes.

And what do the Final Four get out of the contests, taken together? Romney takes at least 22 delegates (not counting Hawaii or AS), Gingrich 24, Santorum 29.

Fair enough. The white right of Alabama and Mississippi has spoken. No ranking Randian as yet has lined up behind either of the last two gentlemen, let us thank our lucky stars. In the big race for Tampa GOP Glory, in total delegates now, Paul nets 50ish, Romney around 480, Gingrich weighs in at 130-odd, and Santorum has garnered near 250. Somebody needs to net 1,144 for the task of bringing down the Obama presidency.

James Lee Burke's New Iberia, Louisiana character Dave Robichaud talks about some of his swampy undergrowth backwoods acquaintances as 'peckerheads.' For the life of me, I associate these two states with lynchings, bus strikes, segregation, George Wallace, dogs set on kids, exceptional rural poverty, virtual 'two nations' living separately, abysmal education, pig ignorance, voter suppression (approved ID only, poll tax), dire infant death stats, and other things that make me want to gather Alabamans and Mississipians to my heart and welcome them in Dominion as our 11th and 12th provinces.

However, considering that exit polls of today's Republican voters suggests some 80% self-identify as evangelical/born-again, I realize this is a non-starter. We canuckis are as vile as atheist socialist Danes to these southern eyes, fully as evul as liberal Seattlites. I know Seattlites and Birminghamsters look the same at Walmart (save that the southerners are noticeably heavier and more laden with items from the hominy aisle), but something about the history makes me feel for those states in a way I never feel for Washington or Oregon. They have had so many blows and so much ignorance and strongman Huey Long/Ross Barnett/Cornelia Wallace politics and so much to get past. I see why Romney could win Virginia battlefields but not Mississippi. I bet he wears Carbetbag cologne and never ate 'cheesy grits' till last week.

The closest thing we have to compare to this kind of a regional split is a Trudeau wipe-out in Alberta (and most of BC) while winning Ontario. Trudeau could wipe out in Alberta and be hated like no leader until Mulroney, but still rule with a majority.

Regional politics are interesting but often painful for somebody. I would never make fun of those two states, they have so many wounds.

We have our own puck-banging version of peckerheads but not yet a province-full. Carol knows perhaps more of this exurban demographic, I believe, loving hockey and bus trips. Canadians just do not seem to have as many crazy people driving politics from my perspective, but I will note any corrections for the election night whoopup.

There was one great national wipe-out in Canada. Mulroney had been elected with the largest majority of all time (still unbeaten at 2/3rds of the House of Commons seats). In the election following his resignation, the Conservative party was reduced to 2/300. Even the PM lost a place to put her ass. Wipe-out.

I like crushing victories and crushing defeats. The Republicans in the South have not yet achieved consensus, let alone the party for a run at O.

__________________

Numbers from that leftist rag Haaretz.

** I love Transvaginal Express. Maddow calls it 'forced vaginal probing' in reference to Rick Perry's compulsory measure for women in Texas, another state with too much history.

-- love this image of the Northern Watcher at the Alert Wireless Station of Nunavut, apropos of election monitoring:

]

Edited March 14, 2012 by william.scherk