Nevada Caucus February 4

[Peter]

James Heaps-Nelson wrote on the “Florida Primary” thread:

Look at that primary/caucus calendar. Newt better win Florida because he's not going to get very much else for a while. Nevada and Arizona are Mormon heavy states. Minnesota, Maine and Michigan should go to Romney.

end quote

I responded:

That polysci professor from UVA was just on Fox and he thinks Newt will win big in Florida and sweep the next five contests. At which point, “the Republican establishment will be throwing rose petals in Newt’s path.”

end quote

I thought it fitting to start the Nevada thread with that. James should apply for UVa Professor Sabato’s job as political guru. We will see.

In the Nevada Caucus February 4^th, Realclear shows Romney with 50 percent, Gingrich with 25, Paul with 15, and Santorum with 8 percent.

Colorado’s February 7th, non binding Caucus has Gingrich with 37, Romney at 18, Paul with 6, and Santorum with 4 percent.

Minnesota’s Caucus February 7, has Gingrich with 36, Romney at 18, Santorum with 17 percent and Paul with 13.

In Maine February 4 to 11^th, the Caucus’s are polling at Romney with 24 percent, Gingrich with 18, Paul with 5, and Santorum with 2 percent, so we will know what happened in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota before Maine’s results are in, which may affect Maine’s vote.

Arizona’s primary, February 28, has Romney at 48, Gingrich with 24, Santorum with 13, and Paul at 6 percent.

Michigan’s primary February 28, has Romney at 34.5 percent, Gingrich at 24.5, Paul at 14, and Santorum at 13.5 percent.

Lets see, the first three are Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota. If Romney wins Nevada, then loses Colorado and Minnesota, that could influence the other February primaries and caucuses.

Romney is projected to win Maine, Arizona, and Michigan before the results of the first three contests are known.

I have no predictions beyond Nevada which Romney should win. I Can decisively say, there may or may not be a snow ball affect for either Gingrich or Romney.

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

Romney 44%

Paul 22%

Gingrich 22%

Santorum 12%

These are my picks...

[Peter]

I agree with this quote from below, “Ron Paul wants a presence at the convention,” a GOP adviser told the Post — and Romney, if he is the nominee, would grant it.”

I have noticed a cordiality between the two candidates at the debates.

Peter

From Newsmax

Romney, Ron Paul Forging Unlikely Alliance

Friday, 03 Feb 2012 11:24 AM

By Jim Meyers

As the Republican presidential race goes on, front-runner Mitt Romney and long shot Ron Paul are said to be forging a “strategic alliance between establishment and outsider.”

The Romney-Paul alliance “is more than a curious connection,” The Washington Post reports. “It is a strategic partnership: for Paul, an opportunity to gain a seat at the table if his long-shot bid for the presidency fails; for Romney, a chance to gain support from one of the most vibrant subgroups within the Republican Party.”

A senior GOP aide in Washington told the Post: “Ron Paul plays a very valuable part in the process and brings a lot of voters toward the Republican Party and ultimately into the voting booth, and that’s something that can’t be ignored.”

During the often contentious Republican debates, Romney and Paul have refrained from attacking each other, and Romney has complimented Paul, praising the Texas congressman’s religious faith.

The two campaigns have coordinated their efforts at times, such as staggering the timing of the two candidates’ appearances on television the night of the New Hampshire primary.

In the Florida primary on Tuesday, Romney won easily with 46 percent of the vote but Paul pulled in 7 percent — more than twice the percentage he got in the 2008 primary.

There is a “growing recognition” that Paul intends to stay in the race over the long term, and “that accommodating him and his supporters could help unify Republican voters in the general election against President Obama,” the Post noted.

“Ron Paul wants a presence at the convention,” a GOP adviser told the Post — and Romney, if he is the nominee, would grant it.

[Peter]

Adam was close with his picks of Romney 44%, Paul 22%, Gingrich 22%, and Santorum at 12 percent. Congratulations ~ you win a new car! Not really, but you were close. As you may know orthodox Jews were allowed to vote in the Caucus later Saturday which delayed the final tally. The Nevada votes are 100 percent in.

According to RealClearPolitics:

Romney 50.0 percent, and 14 delegates were won.

Gingrich 21.1 percent and 6 delegates won.

Paul 18.7 percent 5 and delegates won.

Santorum 9.9 percent and 3 delegates won.

Today, February 7^th we have Minnesota’s non binding caucus. Santorum is polling at a two to nine percent lead. 40 delegates are at stake.

Also, today, February 7^th we have Colorado’s non binding caucus. Romney is polling at a ten to fourteen percent lead. 36 delegates are at stake.

Peter